Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manns Harbor, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:12PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 4:55 AM EDT (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 3:29AMMoonset 4:43PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 327 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt early this afternoon, then becoming S late. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Showers. A chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manns Harbor, NC
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location: 35.98, -75.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 230726
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
326 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
Unsettled weather is expected through Thursday as a stationary
front lingers across the region and several low pressure areas
move along it. The front will finally move off the coast
Thursday morning. High pressure will build in from the west
Friday and Saturday. A cold front will approach from the west
early next week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
As of 330 am tue... Stationary front will remain to the north
and west of the forecast area today. An area of low pressure
with an associated strong vort center will pass across the area
today with widespread showers. Have kept mention of thunder at
chance due to cloud cover and precip. Highs will range in the
mid to upper 70s.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday/
As of 330 am tue... Frontal boundary will temporarily dip down
into the area overnight. Widspread showers will shift south and
east but showers will continue so pops will drop back just a bit
to 60%. Lows generally 65-70.

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/
As of 330 am tue... Wet and stormy period Wednesday and Thursday
before drier weather arrives Friday into the weekend.

Pretty good model agreement that a lull in our stormy pattern may
greet us Wednesday morning as a stationary front now over north
central north carolina slides just south of our area Wednesday
morning. This will briefly allow some drier weather the first half
of the day, before the front just mentioned lifts back to the north
as a warm front later in the day. At the same time we will begin to
see increasing upper level lift as a cut off low drops south through
the tennessee valley, and toward our area. Widespread showers and
embedded thunder will overspread the area from southwest to
northeast Wednesday afternoon and evening. Mlcapes of 500 to 1000
j/kg with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 50+ knots certainly supports
the potential for any storms to become severe late Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night. SPC has our entire area in a
marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday and Wednesday night, and
this seems very reasonable. We are at the outer range of some of
the higher resolution models but early indications are they are
showing the potential for discrete cells that may evolve into
smaller linear lines. In addition to the severe weather threat, the
heavy rain threat is a bit higher than just 24 hours ago. Pwats are
now near 2", with warm cloud depths closer to 12,000 feet versus
10,000 just 24 hours ago. Will continue to mention locally heavy
rain and isolated strong thunderstorms in our hazardous weather
outlook.

The main cold front and steadier rains will move off the coast just
after 12z Thursday. Behind it the cut off low mentioned above will
swing through during the afternoon with a few more showers or rumble
of thunder possible. More pronounced drying is expected by Friday
as the upper low moves into the northern atlantic and heights slowly
build. We warm up over the weekend as 850 mb temps climb into the
upper teens. This will support highs into the middle to upper 80s
inland, and with dewpoints well into the 60s by Sunday, the humidity
will also kick up a notch. From Sunday and beyond a series of
disturbances will move over the top of a building 500 mb ridge.

While not a washout by any means, these disturbances with our warmer
and more humid atmosphere will support shower and thunderstorm
chances each afternoon/evening from Sunday on.

Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/
Short term /through tonight/...

as of 120 am tue... MainlyVFR at the area terminals with
occasional lower ceilings. Widespread light rain and drizzle
covers the area and will continue overnight. Rain will become
heavier during the day with embedded thunder, especially in the
afternoon. Ceilings will lower to MVFR as a result toward 12z
and continue through the day into tonight with visibilities
lower in heavier rain. Winds will be from the south to southwest
at less than 10 knots overnight, increasing to 10-15 knots
today, then diminishing to less than 10 knots tonight.

Long term /wed through sat/
as of 330 am tue... SubVFR weather likely in periods of heavier
rain and thunderstorms Wednesday early Thursday morning. A
return toVFR is expected Thursday night through Sunday with
dryer weather building across the terminals.

Marine
Short term /through tonight/
as of 330 am tue... A stationary front will remain north and
west of the area today. An area of low pressure will move along
it, passing through eastern nc today and off to the northeast
tonight. As a result, the pressure gradient will tighten up over
the marine zones with increasing winds/seas. Beginning of small
craft advisories on the pamlico sound and coastal waters still
looks on track and made no changes.

Long term /wed through sat/
as of 330 am tue... A lull in wind and waves Wednesday will be
brief and followed by elevated seas and winds again later
Wednesday through early Friday. The worst boating conditions
will be the Wednesday evening through early Friday period
followed by tranquil waters this weekend.

Small craft advisories left as is with this update. A cold front
will move south of the coastal waters Wednesday. As this happens
winds will shift briefly into the northwest and become light or less
than 10 kts. Elevated seas in the morning will drop below 5 feet
quickly during the day. This front will return northward by
Wednesday evening as winds shift into the south and increase again.

South to southwest winds will increase to 20 to 30 kts Wednesday
evening through Thursday evening. Seas will once again build to 5
to 10 feet during this period. Small craft advisories are likely
this period all coastal waters with a small period of gale
conditions possible Wednesday night from CAPE hatteras to cape
lookout.

Behind the front winds shift into the northwest Friday at 15 to 20
kts with seas still elevated at 4 to 7 feet. Much better boating
weather this weekend with winds southwest 10 kts and seas in the 2
to 5 foot range.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
this evening for ncz103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Wednesday for amz135.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt
Friday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 pm edt
Friday for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to noon edt
Wednesday for amz150.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Hsa
short term... Hsa
long term... Eh
aviation... Hsa/eh
marine... Hsa/eh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi38 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1 71°F 64°F1011.9 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi26 min 65°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 26 mi44 min W 2.9 G 7 73°F 74°F1012.2 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi21 min 66°F3 ft
44095 38 mi38 min 65°F3 ft
41062 49 mi56 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 66°F1013.3 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Duck, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE18
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SW13
G18
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NE6
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G16
NE15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC15 mi71 minW 510.00 miOvercast70°F68°F95%1012.9 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC22 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair69°F69°F100%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S7S8S6S7S10S10S12
G16
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CalmSW6S8CalmSW6SW13SW11SW7CalmW5W3
1 day agoNE10NE11NE6N12NE11NE10
G15
NE12NE12NE11
G18
NE11NE8
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N10NE10NE10NE11NE8NE6NE5SE3SE7SE5SE8SE7SE5
2 days agoW7W6W5W6W6W5NW9N7NE12NE14NE17
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NE9NE9NE10
G15
NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:40 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:50 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:09 PM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.20.10.81.72.63.23.32.92.31.30.4-0.3-0.5-0.20.61.72.93.84.243.42.41.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina
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FRF Pier
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     3.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:50 AM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:13 PM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.20.10.81.72.63.23.332.41.50.5-0.2-0.4-0.10.71.72.93.84.24.13.52.61.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.