Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manns Harbor, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:57PM Thursday November 15, 2018 1:30 PM EST (18:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:03PMMoonset 11:53PM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 1239 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
This afternoon..SE winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Tonight..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to around 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manns Harbor, NC
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location: 35.98, -75.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 151802
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
102 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will across eastern north carolina
today then lift quickly north of the area tonight pushing a cold
front offshore. High pressure will ridge into the region Friday
through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1230 pm Thursday... Surface analysis this morning
continues to show a strong 1035+ mb high centered over new
england ridging south down the east coast into nc while low
pressure slowly strengthens just north of wilmington, nc. The
low is forecast to continue to move nne across eastern nc this
afternoon into early evening along east of highway 17. This
system will produce a variety of impacts across eastern nc
including: 1) strong coastal winds through early evening 2)
minor soundside flooding over the western pamlico sound 3) heavy
rains with local 2+ inches of rain possible east of highway 17
and 4) the potential for severe thunderstorms mainly along the
immediate coast from the crystal coast to the outer banks.

Initial area of heavy rains has moved east of highway 17 early
this afternoon. With no additional heavy rains expected west of
highway 17 remainder of today will cancel the flash flood watch
there early at 1 pm. Heavy rain continue along the coast. Expect
this rain to move offshore around 2 pm, however, the high
resolution models indicate a line of deep convection developing
ahead of the surface cold front and moving across the area 3-6
pm so will continue eastern watch until 22z. A brief window for
severe weather along the coast will continue through about 22z
especially with the secondary line of convection that is
forecast to develop. This line is forecast to be strongest when
it moves into the marginally unstable airmass located along the
coast. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes given large values of low-level shear despite
minimal instability which would be enough to support supercell
development. In additional to the severe weather threat, a flash
flood watch continues in effect east of highway 17. Latest wpc
forecasts show local amounts of 2 inches of rain possible
today. This rainfall, in addition to the 2-4 inches that fell
Tuesday morning, could lead to localized flooding of low-lying
areas. By early evening, any threat of severe weather should
end and leftover precipitation should quickly move offshore.

The low will produce strong winds along the immediate coast just
east of it's track and will continue the outer banks wind advisory
for gusts to 45 mph.

There will again be a large temperature gradient across the area
today, with highs surging into the lower to mid 70s SE coast
and only around 60 northern coastal plain. Categorical pops for
most of the day will taper off mid afternoon through early this
evening from west to east.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
As of 3 am Thursday... Any precipitation should be offshore
shortly after 00z (7 pm). Dewpoints should really crash after
midnight as cooler and drier air moves over eastern nc behind
the quickly departing low. Gusty wnw NW winds will help drop
temperatures into the upper 30s to mid 40s by morning with lows
around 50 on the outer banks.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 215 am thurs... Drier high pressure will build in late
week through this weekend, and then a week coastal trough
develops by Monday and could bring some rain showers to the
coast. High pressure will then build in again through midweek.

Temps will generally be near climo.

Friday through Sunday... High pressure will build in from the
west on Friday, and continue to ridge into eastern nc this
weekend. It will be a bit cooler as much of the us will be
under a longwave trough. However, a modest warming trend will
be present this weekend, with highs Friday in the mid to upper
50s, and then by Sunday high temps will reach the low to mid 60s
across eastern nc. Low temps will dip to the mid 30s interior,
and low to mid 40s near the beaches (except obx which will
remain in upper 40s).

Monday through Wednesday... A weak coastal trough will develop
early Monday morning, and will bring the threat for showers to
coastal areas. Have the best chances of rain through the morning
hours, and then taper off pops from west to east later in the
day. Then, for Tuesday and Wednesday high pressure will build
back into the area from the north, with dry conditions expected.

High temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s Monday, and then
cool down to the mid to upper 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows
will be around average in the mid upper 30s to low mid 40s.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Short term through 18z Friday ...

as of 102 pm Thursday... Widespread ifr conditions prevail
across our area this afternoon with periods of MVFR with some
breaks in the clouds. Rain generally coming to an end at all
sites although a few lingering showers in the next couple of
hours cannot be ruled out. Latest hi-res guidance suggesting
these breaks continue for the next couple of hours as low lifts
north before a more uniform ifr cloud deck pushes in again late
this afternoon. Lower ceilings quickly give way toVFR skies
overnight with the advection of much drier air into the region.

Winds will quickly shift with passage of the low to mainly
westerly at around 10 knots with higher gusts by late afternoon.

Long term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 230 am thurs...VFR conditions are expected through the
long term as high pressure builds into the region.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 1230 pm Thursday... No changes to previous thinking
surface low continues to strengthen over eastern nc and the
gradient between the low and a strong high over new england will
keep a tight gradient and strong winds through early evening.

Gale force winds continue with gusts to 45 knots at diamond buoy
and seas to around 15 ft. With these rough conditions, will
continue the high surf advisory as gale warnings remain in
effect for all coastal waters and the pamlico sound through
early this evening. While winds may subside just a bit this
evening, they should increase again overnight as another surge
occurs behind the exiting low. Overall, very poor marine
conditions can be expected through the remainder of the week.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 230 am thurs... Strong winds continue Friday morning with
winds W 25-30 kts, with gusts to 35 kts. Winds will subside
through the morning hours, becoming W 15-20 kts by the
afternoon. Winds will become the N NE 5-15 kts Saturday and
Sunday, and then a coastal trough develops Monday, and causes
winds to turn to the NW at 10-15 kts.

Seas will initially be 6-10 ft. Friday morning, but will
subside to 4-6 ft by mid afternoon. Seas will then become mostly
2-4 ft. Saturday through Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 945 am thu... Strong easterly onshore flow will lead to
waves in surf zone building to 8 feet or greater... Espcly from
cape lookout n. High surf advisory continues into this evening
from carteret county north to outer banks. The strong easterly
flow will also produce minor soundside flooding over the western
pamlico sound with water levels 2-3 ft above normal.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Flash flood watch until 3 pm est this afternoon for ncz045>047-
080-081-092>095-098-103-104.

Coastal flood advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
ncz093>095.

High surf advisory until 8 pm est this evening for ncz095-103-
104.

Wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ncz103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for amz130-131-136-
137.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for amz135-152-154-
156.

Gale warning until 5 pm est this afternoon for amz150-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Tl sgk
aviation... Ctc sgk ms
marine... Jme ctc sgk
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi30 min E 24 G 29 61°F 58°F1012 hPa (-7.1)
FRFN7 19 mi150 min 11 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi30 min 59°F10 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 26 mi30 min E 17 G 27 63°F 57°F1011.2 hPa (-7.3)
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi45 min 62°F11 ft
44086 30 mi35 min 63°F14 ft
44095 38 mi44 min 63°F13 ft
41062 49 mi30 min 25 G 31 1012.9 hPa (-6.7)

Wind History for Duck, NC
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E11
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SE27
S30
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G31
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC15 mi50 minESE 13 G 193.00 miLight Rain61°F59°F96%1013.2 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC17 mi50 minE 16 G 262.00 miRain60°F60°F100%1012.5 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC22 mi36 minE 17 G 246.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist60°F57°F93%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE13
G20
NE16
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NE13NE15
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1 day agoNW6NW6N8N7N8
G14
N7NE12
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G22
NE13
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G21
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NE14NE15
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G22
NE9
G14
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G20
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G23
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2 days agoE9E7E6E7SE5SE7SE7SE8SE8SE9SE9S14
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G23
S14
G19
S16
G22
S6W6SW5W5W8NW8NW6N8

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:22 AM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:24 AM EST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:38 PM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:16 PM EST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:52 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.82.52.11.61.2111.31.82.42.93.23.232.521.510.80.91.21.72.3

Tide / Current Tables for FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.