Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manns Harbor, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:14PM Sunday May 26, 2019 4:59 PM EDT (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:47AMMoonset 11:42AM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manns Harbor, NC
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location: 35.98, -75.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 261800
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
200 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will continue off the coast tonight. A cold front
will push south into the region Monday, then quickly retreat
north Tuesday, with very hot temperatures expected across the
area through at least the middle of the week. A cold front is
expected to move into the area Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 220 pm Sunday... Sea brz is slowly pushing inland and may
see isold convection develop inland from coast thru early
evening given strong instab, but overall lack of moisture and
forcing will keep majority of region rain free. If any
convection does form could develop quickly given the high cape
values over region, but will rapidly diminish this evening and
expect dry conditions overnight with mdls showing more organized
convection well to the n. Will be another mild night with most
locations dropping to 70 to 75.

Short term Monday
As of 220 pm Sunday... Backdoor cold front will push S thru most
of the region mon. Once again overall lack of forcing and
moisture aloft shld keep convection limited. Did cont isold
mention N and just inland from SRN cst for enhanced convergence
on front sea breeze. Will have decent temp gradient Mon with
nrn coast reaching 80 to 85 with developing onshore flow, sw
tier shld see some upr 90s. Dewpts progged to drop in aftn
inland keeping apparent temps mainly AOB 100.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
As of 200 pm Sunday... Upper ridging over the southeast coupled
with surface high pressure offshore will bring hot and mainly
dry conditions through much of the work week. The ridge breaks
down late in the week with a frontal system approaching from the
bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday
through Saturday.

Monday night through Thursday... Upper ridging will be centered
over the deep south with surface high pressure centered
offshore. Models continue to show a series of weak
impulses remnant convective complexes moving through the NW flow
aloft Monday night into Tuesday with a backdoor front pushing
to SRN tier Mon evening which dissipates early Tuesday. The
weak mid level energy combined with convergence along the front
and sea breeze boundaries may be sufficient to trigger isolated
thunderstorms across parts of the area with somewhat better
chances across the northern tier. The upper ridge axis shifts
eastward late Tuesday into Thursday with dry and hot conditions
prevailing.

The main story this week will be the hot temps with 850mb temps
around 17-20c, possibly peaking as high as 23c Wednesday as
fcst in the 00z ecmwf. The front dissipates by Tuesday with
highs expected in the mid to upper 90 inland to mid to upper 80s
beaches. The heat peaks Wed with highs around 100 inland to low
to mid 90s beaches, then the upper ridge begins to slide
offshore Thursday with high in the upper 90s inland to mid upper
80s along the beaches.

Friday and Saturday... The upper ridge slides offshore late in
the week with near zonal flow developing across the eastern
conus. A dampening shortwave trough and surface frontal boundary
approach from the west bringing increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms across eastern nc. There are some significant
model differences on timing and amount of precip, so will keep
pops to slight chance or low chance. Temps will not be quite as
hot as earlier in the week but still well above average with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and mid 80s along the
coast.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
Short term through Monday ...

as of 1230 pm Sunday...VFR expected to dominate thru pd. An
isold shra tsra poss on sea breeze over ERN tier this aftn but
cvrg too limited to mention in tafs. Overnight decent
temp dewpt spread shld preclude any fog and guidance shows no
stratus developing. On Mon backdoor front will sag S thru most
of the region however lack of forcing and moisture shld limit
convection to isold cvrg if any.

Long term Monday night through Fri ...

as of 200 pm Sunday... Upper ridging will keep generally dry and
hot conditions across the area this week with predVFR
conditions expected. Cannot rule out a widely scattered shower
Tuesday as weak impulses ride over the ridge but coverage
expected to be minimal. Early morning fog chances also look
minimal but cannot completely rule out patchy late night early
morning fog or stratus.

Marine
Short term tonight and Mon ...

as of 220 pm Sunday... Weak cold front will approach from the n
tonight then push S thru most of the region mon. Ahead of the
front tonight expect ssw winds 10 to 20 kts... Highest all wtrs
this evening then mainly SRN half late. As front pushed S mon
will see winds become nne in its wake at mainly 10 to 15 kts
with some gusts 15 to 20. Over far SRN tier front wl likely
slow and may have hard time pushing S as sea brz develops.

Seas mainly 2 to 4 feet however will see some 5 footers... Mainly
out wtrs off obx.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 200 pm Sunday... A backdoor front will dissipate Monday
night into Tuesday while high pressure remains centered offshore
through the period. Winds Tuesday veer to S around 10-15 kt by
afternoon, then becoming SW Tuesday night into Wednesday. Sw
winds increase to 15-20 kt late Wednesday through Thursday as
gradients tighten ahead of an approaching cold front. Small
craft conditions will be possible late in the day Thursday and
into Friday, as winds increase to 20-25 kts out of the sw. Seas
subside to 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas begin to build
back to 3-5 ft Thursday, with some 6 foot seas possible by
Friday.

Climate
Record or near record warmth is expected for much of the week.

Record high temps for 5 26 (Sunday)
location temp year
new bern 100 1953 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 88 1962 (khse asos)
greenville 99 1927 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1953 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 94 2004 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 27 (Monday)
location temp year
new bern 96 1989 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 86 2004 (khse asos)
greenville 96 1962 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 88 2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1989 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 28 (Tuesday)
location temp year
new bern 93 2014 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 87 1991 (khse asos)
greenville 97 1916 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 88 2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 93 2004 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 95 1967 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 29 (Wednesday)
location temp year
new bern 95 1982 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 91 1991 (khse asos)
greenville 95 1918 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 92 1991 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 93 1991 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 94 1967 (knca asos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for
ncz203>205.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf
short term... Rf
long term... Sk sgk
aviation... Rf sgk
marine... Rf sgk
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi47 min SE 9.9 G 11 78°F 62°F1015 hPa
FRFN7 19 mi179 min 3 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi59 min 73°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 26 mi47 min S 11 G 13 80°F 81°F1015.7 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi59 min 76°F3 ft
44086 30 mi64 min 74°F3 ft
44095 38 mi43 min 74°F3 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC15 mi79 minS 810.00 miFair87°F74°F67%1015.9 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC17 mi79 minno data10.00 miFair88°F68°F53%1015.6 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC22 mi65 minSSE 810.00 miA Few Clouds91°F72°F54%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9S8S9
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W6NW6N7SW7SW8
1 day agoNE12E11E10E6E7E5E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE6E5E6E8E9E10E10SE10SE11
G16
2 days agoSW15SW17SW18SW19SW13SW14SW15SW14SW11SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Sun -- 01:25 AM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:54 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:01 PM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.7332.72.21.71.10.80.60.81.21.82.42.82.92.82.41.91.410.80.91.21.7

Tide / Current Tables for FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.