Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
James City, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:12PM Monday May 22, 2017 1:37 PM EDT (17:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:55AMMoonset 3:38PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 935 Am Edt Mon May 22 2017
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms late this morning, then a chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of tstms. Showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bridgeton, NC
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location: 35.12, -77.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 221351
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
951 am edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
A period of unsettled weather is expected Monday through
Thursday as several low pressure areas move through the region.

High pressure will build in from the west Friday and Saturday.

Near term /today/
As of 950 am mon... Latest sfc analysis shows 1006mb low over
southern canada and the great lakes this morning, with attendant
cold front moving through the appalachians. Surface cold front
over the mountains this morning will make only slow progress
today, reaching the western piedmont this afternoon. Models show
well-defined shortwave passing to the northwest this afternoon,
where most of the convection will be. Latest radar imagery
shows area of showers moving through NE nc this morning, with
southern portion area of showers weakening. Adjusted pops
slightly based on radar trends and high res guidance. Scattered
showers and tstms expected to redevelop this afternoon, with
best chances inland mainly along and west of hwy 17... Coinciding
with deeper moisture and better forcing. Low level thickness
values and s/sw flow support highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Short term /tonight/
As of 310 am mon... Similar conditions from this afternoon
continue into the late evening. After midnight an increase in
pops is seen as strong low pressure lifts northeast along the
front from alabama to western south carolina accompanied by a
broad low- level theta-e ridge spreading into the forecast area.

Bumped up pops to likely with chance remaining over the far
northern counties. Lows mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/
As of 310 am mon... Still on track for an unsettled week with
periods of rain and thunderstorms, which may be heavy at times,
followed by much drier weather toward the end of the week and
weekend.

On Tuesday an area of low pressure will track to our west across
central north carolina along a stationary front. Ahead of the front
the atmosphere will be primed for heavy rain. Precipitable water
(pwats) remain around 2 inches, with a tall skinny CAPE and warm
cloud depths above 12,000 feet. These values are similar to what
the day shift pointed out from yesterday, so we will continue to
mention moderate rain in the forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night. Wpc
has our area in a marginal risk for flash flooding, but the higher
threat for more organized heavy rains may end up just west of our
area across central nc, with the location of the stationary front.

The position of the front will have to be carefully watched as it
will be along and near this boundary that will likely experience the
most organized rains. 0-6 km bulk shear values of around 30 kts
would support a chance of isolated severe weather but heavy rain
potential appears to be bigger threat for Tuesday/Tuesday night.

We may see a brief break in the rain for a good chunk of Wednesday
as both the GFS and canadian now show the front mentioned above
sliding south of our area with a bubble of high pressure building
in. This break will last longest over the far northeast, and
shortest over the south. Just as quickly though the front lifts
back north as a warm front Thursday evening. After drying out a bit
Wednesday morning, pwats again climb toward 2 inches, with a tall
skinny CAPE and warm cloud depths above 10,000 feet supporting the
potential again for localized heavier rains. While the rainfall
parameters just mentioned are a tad lower than what we expect
Tuesday, the severe weather parameters are higher. 0-6 km shear
values Wednesday night approach 50 kts, so if we have enough
instability overnight severe weather can't be ruled out.

Organized rains will move off the coast early Thursday with the
passage of a cold front. Showers though will linger through the
afternoon with an h5 trof and an embedded short wave not moving
through our area until 0z Friday. Continued with a lower chance for
rain through Thursday evening. More pronounced dry weather builds
in Friday into Saturday, with high pressure moving across our area.

Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms will come Saturday
night into Sunday as a series of weak upper level disturbances move
our way in the northwest flow aloft.

Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/
Short term /through tonight/
as of 7 am mon... Unsettled weather will be the rule in the
short term. The area will be south of a warm front and west of a
cold front. Scattered MVFR ceilings this morning will become
vfr at all 4 terminals over the next few hours. However, sub-
vfr vsbys forecast in scattered showers and thunderstorms today
into this evening, becoming more numerous after midnight. MVFR
ceilings around 2500 ft return after midnight. Surface winds
will be light south southwest through the period.

Long term /tue through fri/
as of 310 am mon... Sub-vfr weather likely in periods of heavier
rain and thunderstorms Tuesday through early Thursday morning.

A return toVFR is expected Thursday night through Saturday with
drier weather building across the terminals.

Marine
Short term /through tonight/...

as of 950 am mon... Latest obs show se/s winds 5-15 kt and seas
2-4 ft. Winds become more s/sw this afternoon increasing to
10-15 kt. In the short term, the marine area will be south of a
warm front and east of a cold front. Flow will be south to
southwest, 5-10 knots on the rivers and 5-15 knots on the
coastal waters.

Long term /tue through fri/...

as of 310 am mon... Small craft conditions likely Tuesday
afternoon and night followed by a lull Wednesday, before small
craft conditions again becoming likely Wednesday night through
early Friday.

Southwest winds will increase to 20 to 30 Tuesday afternoon with
waves building to 4 to 8 feet, with small craft advisories likely
most of the coastal waters. Winds diminish Wednesday but seas
may remain near 6 feet especially the outer waters. Southwest
winds increase again over the waters Wednesday night ahead of a
cold front. Winds will remain 20-25 Wednesday night into
Thursday as they shift from southwest to northwest by Thursday
evening behind a cold front. Seas once again build to 4 to 7
feet but linger into Friday. More tranquil weather is expected
over the waters Saturday with northwest winds under 10 kts and
seas 2 to 3 feet.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Cqd/hsa
short term... Hsa
long term... Eh
aviation... Eh/hsa
marine... Eh/cqd/hsa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 33 mi62 min SSW 13 G 17 78°F 74°F1016.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 43 mi98 min SSW 13 G 16 78°F 1017.9 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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N6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC6 mi44 minSW 10 G 2010.00 miFair81°F69°F67%1016.6 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC12 mi1.7 hrsSSW 10 G 197.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F66°F58%1017.4 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC21 mi2.7 hrsSW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds81°F69°F67%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr45NE7NE7NE8E7E5E3CalmE6E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5S8SW9SW13
G21
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1 day agoCalmCalm6SW5NE12
G22
E6NE6NE11NE7NE9E10NE8NE8E7NE9NE7NE8E8E7NE8NE8444
2 days agoSW10S6SW9S11S8S9S8S10S9S7SW6SW3SW4SW6SW4SW5SW4SW6W8SW7W8W7W4W3

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:42 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:47 PM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.40.91.51.92.12.11.81.40.80.40.100.30.81.422.42.52.31.91.30.7

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:14 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:01 AM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:25 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:31 PM EDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.81.62.433.232.51.810.40.10.10.61.42.43.23.73.73.32.61.70.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.