Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kitty Hawk, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:19PM Monday October 23, 2017 7:28 AM EDT (11:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:40AMMoonset 8:08PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 704 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog early this morning. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with frequent gusts to 25 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..S winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kitty Hawk, NC
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location: 36.04, -75.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231101
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
701 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure to the north will weaken and slide offshore
today, as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The
front will move across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. High
pressure will build over the area Wednesday through Friday.

Another cold front will approach by late next weekend.

Near term today
As of 7 am mon... Latest sfc analysis shows 1009mb low over
western ky tn with associated front extending from canada down
into the gulf coast region... And strong 1033mb high pressure
centered over nova scotia extending into the SE us. High
pressure will continue to weaken and slide off the coast as
frontal system approaches from the west today. Patchy fog early
this morning inland should burn off quickly after sunrise.

Latest radar imagery shows bulk of precip well to the W sw
extending from indiana down into alabama georgia, and scattered
showers over sc and western nc. High res guidance shows little
precip development across the area today, but could see some
isolated showers along the coast this morning and afternoon.

Precip chances increase late afternoon and early evening as
broken line of showers and storms approaches from the W wsw,
aided by increasing dynamics with shortwave and upper trough. An
isolated storm will be possible this afternoon, though
instability, shear and moisture parameters quickly increase
after 00z. Low level thickness values and SE S flow support
temps well above normal again today, with highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

Short term tonight
As of 315 am mon... Still looks active tonight, as a broken line
of showers and potentially strong to severe storms is expected
to move into the area. A deep upper trough and strong cold front
will move into the region tonight bringing periods of heavy
rain and a threat of severe storms. SPC has upgraded most of
eastern nc into a slight risk of severe weather, with best
chances overnight. The main threat will be the potential for
damaging wind gusts, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado
given the low level flow and SRH increasing. Vorticity advection
increases as models depict dampening shortwave trough pivoting
through the tn ohio valleys, and will spur sfc cyclogenesis in
the southern appalachians acting to increase dynamics and
strengthening southerly flow on 40-50 kt llj. Dewpoints will be
quite high in the 60s and would be sufficient for marginal
instability, and the combination of significant wind shear and
marginal instability will spell a high shear low CAPE scenario
for strong or severe storms. Forecast soundings show mu cape
values 500-1500 j kg, with 0-6km bulk shear 35-45 kt. Any heavy
showers or thunderstorms could produce strong gusty winds due to
momentum transfer to the sfc from strong winds aloft. Periods
of heavy rain will also be possible with pwat values soaring to
around 1.75". Mild overnight with cloud cover, precip and
southerly winds with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 330 am Monday... A strong cold front will bring much-needed
showers Tuesday, followed by a shot of cooler air for mid to
late week. A surface low will move up the coast by late this
weekend ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west
by Sunday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... Showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be ongoing Tuesday morning. There is the
potential for a few strong thunderstorms early in the day
Tuesday near the coast before the activity moves offshore later
in the day as mid-level trough axis swings to our north. Pops
will be in the likely range over the eastern half of the cwa
through midday Tuesday, then along the outer banks into the
evening. Ahead of the front, temperatures will actually warm
quite a bit on Tuesday with mid to upper 70s across most of the
cwa.

Wednesday through Saturday... A period of pleasant weather is
expected Wednesday into the first part of the weekend. There may
a few morning showers along the outer banks Wednesday morning,
but those should quickly move away. Under partly to mostly clear
skies, highs Wednesday and Thursday should be in the mid to
upper 60s with lows mostly in the 40s with 50s along the coast.

Temperatures moderate by Friday back into the lower 70s with
lows in the 50s. Moisture starts to increase from the south and
southwest by Saturday as surface low starts to move north of
florida and another strong cold front approaches from the
tennessee valley. Guidance holds off any precipitation until
Saturday night, so will indicate an increasing cloudiness trend
at this time.

Sunday... With deep moisture associated with surface low moving
up the coast and an approaching cold front, rain chances
increase on Sunday. The ECMWF is much more aggressive with the
low formation and the precipitation as the GFS the low further
offshore with a weaker front and less precipitation. Will hold
in the low chance range for now.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 7 am mon... Mixed bag ofVFR and MVFR this morning with
patchy fog and stratus. Could see a period of MVFR clouds
through late morning, though expect predVFR. SE wind gusts to
around 20 kt this afternoon, with flow becoming more southerly
late today and tonight. Isolated to widely scattered showers
today, not enough to include mention in tafs at this time. A
broken line of showers and storms is expected to push through
the terminals tonight, best chances likely after 02 03z. Could
see isolated severe storms with gusty winds. Widespread MVFR
conditions will likely develop late tonight and early tue
morning.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 345 am Monday... Periods of lower (MVFR ifr) ceilings may
be possible during the first half of Tuesday, especially at the
kewn and koaj TAF sites as frontal system slowly crosses the
area. All of the precipitation should be east of the TAF sites
by late Tuesday with much drier conditions to prevail Wednesday
through Friday.VFR conditions should prevail Wednesday through
Friday, although some decent radiational cooling conditions
could lead to some fog, especially around kpgv and kewn both
Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 7 am mon... Latest obs show E SE winds 5-10 kt north of
hatteras and SE 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt south of
hatteras... And seas 2-4 ft. SCA conditions expected to develop
across the southern waters and spread northward this afternoon
and tonight. SCA remains in effect for coastal waters and
sounds. High pressure extending over area from NE will continue
to weaken and slide offshore today as a cold front approaches
from the west. SE winds will continue to increase becoming 10-20
kt, with seas gradually building to 4-6 ft this afternoon and
early evening. Southerly winds peak late tonight at 20-25 kt
with gusts to 30 kt with seas 5-10 ft.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 345 am Monday... Gusty S ssw winds are expected Tuesday
into Tuesday at 20-30 knots with seas building to as high as
10-11 feet ahead of strong cold front. Small craft advisories
will remain in effect for all but the inland rivers. Front
should be offshore by Wednesday morning with wnw NW winds
subsiding to 5-15 knots. However, seas will remain elevated into
at least late Thursday over the central waters before subsiding
below SCA status. By Friday, winds should be at 10 knots or
less with seas 2-4 feet.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 pm edt
Tuesday for amz135.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 6 pm edt
Tuesday for amz130-131.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 6 pm edt
Thursday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am edt
Thursday for amz156.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to noon edt
Thursday for amz150.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am edt
Wednesday for amz158.

Synopsis... Ctc cqd
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Ctc sk
aviation... Ctc cqd
marine... Ctc cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 16 mi41 min ESE 8 G 8 70°F 70°F1023.1 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 18 mi29 min 70°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 26 mi37 min 70°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 29 mi47 min E 4.1 G 5.1 69°F 72°F1023.3 hPa
44095 40 mi41 min 73°F3 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC17 mi49 minN 010.00 miOvercast68°F66°F94%1023.4 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC17 mi44 minESE 410.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1023.7 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC18 mi35 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F64°F100%1023.5 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5E5E7E7E8E8E7E5E6E7E6E5E5E4E3E3E3CalmCalmSE3SE3SE3SE3SE3
1 day agoCalmN3N4N5NE6E7E7E7E6E4CalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmNW5NW6NW4N5N5NE6NE8NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:56 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:14 AM EDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:44 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.621.30.80.60.81.322.83.53.83.83.42.821.30.80.711.422.633

Tide / Current Tables for FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina
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FRF Pier
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:56 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:18 AM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:44 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:35 PM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.61.91.20.70.50.71.21.92.83.53.93.83.42.71.91.10.60.60.81.31.92.633

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.