Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Broken Arrow, OK
March 29, 2024 8:04 AM CDT (13:04 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:11 AM Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 11:20 PM Moonset 8:17 AM |
Area Discussion for - Tulsa, OK
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FXUS64 KTSA 291116 AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 616 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Low amplitude ridging aloft will be in place today with a strengthening pressure gradient bringing a substantial increase in south winds by this afternoon. A large fetch of high and mid level moisture with a sub-tropical connection is present and should result in a persistent cirrus deck, which will be thick at times.
As such this will inhibit mixing of stronger low level flow to the surface and keep wind gusts just below advisory levels despite the tightening gradient at the surface. Strongest signal in recent data for gusts at or above 40 mph remains over SE Kansas and SW Missouri, and some adjacent areas of northeast OK and northwest AR may be more likely to see higher gusts. Fire weather danger is becoming increasingly offset by greening of vegetation, however some locations NW of I-44 are a few weeks removed from significant rainfall.
LONG TERM
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
A potent mid level wave seen of the Pacific coast this morning will gradually round the base of a developing western CONUS trough this weekend, with low amplitude ridging maintained over the southern plains. Generally breezy and quite warm conditions are anticipated through Sunday with increasing low level moisture.
Eventually the expectation is for a potent wave to eject into the plains early next week, Monday being the favored time frame, with an increase in thunderstorm potential spreading across the region. The details of pattern evolution remain uncertain at this juncture, but given the idea of strengthening deep layer wind fields overspreading an unstable airmass, some severe potential is likely to develop in the general area.
Cold front in the wake of this system will bring noticeably cooler conditions by Tuesday, with a couple of days of below normal temperatures followed by warmer weather later in the week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period for all sites with increasing high clouds this morning/ afternoon. South-southwest sfc winds will strengthen this morning and afternoon, gusting to near 30 kts. LLWS ongoing for all sites through 15z. Another period of LLWS is expected tonight after 02-03z for all sites.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 58 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 76 54 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 75 57 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 76 51 78 58 / 0 10 0 0 FYV 74 53 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 73 56 74 61 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 75 57 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 74 56 75 61 / 0 10 0 10 F10 75 58 79 64 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 75 56 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 616 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Low amplitude ridging aloft will be in place today with a strengthening pressure gradient bringing a substantial increase in south winds by this afternoon. A large fetch of high and mid level moisture with a sub-tropical connection is present and should result in a persistent cirrus deck, which will be thick at times.
As such this will inhibit mixing of stronger low level flow to the surface and keep wind gusts just below advisory levels despite the tightening gradient at the surface. Strongest signal in recent data for gusts at or above 40 mph remains over SE Kansas and SW Missouri, and some adjacent areas of northeast OK and northwest AR may be more likely to see higher gusts. Fire weather danger is becoming increasingly offset by greening of vegetation, however some locations NW of I-44 are a few weeks removed from significant rainfall.
LONG TERM
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
A potent mid level wave seen of the Pacific coast this morning will gradually round the base of a developing western CONUS trough this weekend, with low amplitude ridging maintained over the southern plains. Generally breezy and quite warm conditions are anticipated through Sunday with increasing low level moisture.
Eventually the expectation is for a potent wave to eject into the plains early next week, Monday being the favored time frame, with an increase in thunderstorm potential spreading across the region. The details of pattern evolution remain uncertain at this juncture, but given the idea of strengthening deep layer wind fields overspreading an unstable airmass, some severe potential is likely to develop in the general area.
Cold front in the wake of this system will bring noticeably cooler conditions by Tuesday, with a couple of days of below normal temperatures followed by warmer weather later in the week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period for all sites with increasing high clouds this morning/ afternoon. South-southwest sfc winds will strengthen this morning and afternoon, gusting to near 30 kts. LLWS ongoing for all sites through 15z. Another period of LLWS is expected tonight after 02-03z for all sites.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 58 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 76 54 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 75 57 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 76 51 78 58 / 0 10 0 0 FYV 74 53 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 73 56 74 61 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 75 57 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 74 56 75 61 / 0 10 0 10 F10 75 58 79 64 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 75 56 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KRVS RICHARD LLOYD JONES JR,OK | 5 sm | 71 min | SSE 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 45°F | 67% | 29.92 | |
KTUL TULSA INTL,OK | 11 sm | 71 min | SSE 09 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 55°F | 45°F | 67% | 29.92 | |
KOWP WILLIAM R POGUE MUNI,OK | 17 sm | 29 min | SSE 10G14 | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 48°F | 67% | 29.92 |
Tulsa, OK,
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