Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Broken Arrow, OK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 6:40PM Saturday October 21, 2017 10:43 AM CDT (15:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:12AMMoonset 7:12PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Broken Arrow, OK
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location: 36.04, -95.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Tulsa, OK
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Fxus64 ktsa 211146
afdtsa
area forecast discussion
national weather service tulsa ok
646 am cdt Sat oct 21 2017

Aviation
Concerning TAF sites ktul krvs kbvo kmlc kxna kfyv kfsm krog.

MVFR ceilings and breezy southerly winds across much of the CWA during
the morning hours are expected to lift back to just within the
vfr category this afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching the
cwa. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front late
this afternoon and spread across the CWA this evening and tonight.

Periods of ifr MVFR conditions and strong variable winds will be
possible within the stronger storms along near the leading line
with MVFR conditions... Northwesterly winds and decreasing
thunder rain chances behind the front. Will carry tempo groups for
timing of the stronger storms. Conditions look to begin lifting
back toVFR clearing out across northeast oklahoma late in the taf
period.

Prev discussion issued 320 am cdt Sat oct 21 2017
discussion...

the main items of interest for this morning's forecast will be
severe storm and heavy rain potential late today and tonight with
a cold front, and rain chances temps with a strong front late next
week.

Broad western CONUS trough is marching toward the plains this
morning. A pocket of higher PV was located near the four corners
near the basal portion of the parent trough. This energy will move
out into the central southern plains later today and will help
provide lift along with the associated pacific front to produce
widespread storms across the region thru tonight.

The latest short term hi-res guidance indicates some semi-discrete
cell development between 21z and 00z to the west northwest of
tulsa, where the greatest threat for hail will be with this event.

An isolated tornado is possible as well. Storms should quickly
grow upscale into a squall line by the time they reach tulsa and
will continue to march south and east from there thru the night.

Some hi-res guidance indicates there will be potential for some
qlcs tornadoes where segments of the line can bow out to the east
and northeast. This threat will be greatest to the west of highway
69 in northeast oklahoma. It will be interesting to see how the
supercells that are expected to develop across central ok evolve,
because as they become a portion of the eventual squall line,
they could bring the best threat for qlcs tornadoes as the system
moves into northeast ok. The line should generally decrease in
intensity as it moves into arkansas and southeast oklahoma owing
to decreasing instability after midnight.

Given the progressive nature of the system, the flash flood threat
will be localized at best. However, broad 1 to 2 inch rains over
the region may cause a few river points to flood.

There will be a temperature roller coaster next week with
primarily tranquil weather. After a mild start to the work week
Monday, cooler temps are expected Tuesday behind a polar cold
front which will push thru Monday night. Another quick warm-up is
expected thru Thursday ahead of the next system.

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the upper
flow pattern late next week and into the weekend. One thing is
fairly certain. Some shortwave energy is expected to dive
southeast across the middle of the country late next week and will
force another strong polar cold front thru the region. The
canadian and GFS keep this system a progressive open wave and
suggest little in the way of precip for the area. The 00z ECMWF is
following in the footsteps of the 12z run, closing the system off
well to our west and is much wetter going into next weekend. Given
the uncertainty, will keep the chance pops from the consensus
guidance for Friday with the front, and will maintain low pops
going into the weekend. The temperature forecast is no walk in the
park either during this time frame. Started with consensus
forecast and made adjustments.

Lacy

Preliminary point temps pops
Tul 79 52 71 44 30 100 10 0
fsm 78 59 70 46 20 100 40 10
mlc 80 55 70 43 20 100 10 0
bvo 77 50 72 38 60 100 10 0
fyv 74 54 64 38 20 100 30 10
byv 74 55 65 44 20 100 40 10
mko 79 53 69 44 20 100 20 0
mio 77 51 68 43 10 100 20 0
f10 79 53 70 45 20 100 10 0
hhw 82 58 71 47 20 100 30 10

Tsa watches warnings advisories
Ok... None.

Ar... None.

Aviation... 20


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tulsa - Jones Jr. Airport, OK5 mi51 minS 1310.00 miOvercast71°F64°F79%1012.9 hPa
Tulsa, Tulsa International Airport, OK12 mi51 minS 20 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy72°F64°F79%1011 hPa

Wind History from RVS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S16
G23
S15
G27
S11
G23
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G25
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G25
S12
G19
S9SE10S11
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S10S10S6SE10S12
G18
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G20
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S10S9S8S11
G16
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1 day agoS7S7S9S10S9S7S8SE5S5S4S4CalmCalmCalmS6S3SW3S3S3CalmS4CalmSE4S7
2 days agoS11S14S11
G18
S13
G18
S14S13S8S10S8S4S5S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tulsa, OK (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tulsa, OK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.