Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Columbia, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:27PM Saturday June 24, 2017 6:16 AM EDT (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 5:27AMMoonset 8:00PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 330 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Columbia town, NC
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location: 36.05, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 240748
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
348 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Synopsis
A tropical airmass will interact with a slow moving cold front
impacting eastern nc this weekend. The front will meander just
off the coast through Wednesday. High pressure will build in
from the west Wednesday through late next week.

Near term through today
As of 315 am sat... Latest sfc analysis shows 995mb low over
southern quebec with attendant cold front extending down into
the oh ky valley and deep south, with the remnants of cindy
over WV and ky. The remnants of cindy will turn into an open
wave and track well north of the area today, as frontal boundary
moves eastward.

Latest radar imagery shows line of weakening showers moving into
the central nc towards raleigh early this morning. All high res
guidance show this line of precip weakening and drying out
before reaching coastal plain this morning, though could see a
few showers inland towards sunrise. SPC continues to outlook
the region in a marginal risk for severe storms today. Scattered
showers and storms expected this afternoon and evening,
initially triggered by the seabreeze with better forcing late.

Pre-frontal trough and increasing mid upr winds will lead to
marginal deep layer shear of 25-35 kt which may support a few
strong storms this afternoon and evening, with marginally severe
hail and strong downburst winds. Hrrr models is a bit slower to
develop convection this afternoon, while the nssl WRF is much
quicker developing robust convection. Increased pops slightly
from previous forecast based on high res models. Low level
thickness values support highs in the mid 80s to low 90s today,
combined with dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices will climb to
or just above 100 degrees.

Short term tonight
As of 315 am sat... Deep moisture will overspread the region
tonight as tropical airmass interacts with an approaching
frontal boundary. Front is progged to push into the coastal
plain late tonight, early Sun morning.

Expect instability to wane with loss of heating, but forecast
soundings still show mu CAPE values around 1500 j kg, 30-40kt
0-6km bulk shear overnight. Threat for isolated strong storms
with gusty winds will continue overnight, but think the main
threat will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding. Localized flash flooding will be possible
tonight, with pwats 2.25-2.5", warm cloud layer upwards of
14,000 ft, and storm motions nearly parallel to the upper level
flow. These factors will lead to very efficient rain processes,
and training of storms. Storm total rainfall 0.5-1.5" with
higher amounts possible, at this time expect higher totals along
the coast.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 340 am Saturday... After wet weather Sunday and scattered
showers Monday and Tuesday, cooler and much drier air will
spread into eastern nc from Wednesday into next weekend.

Sunday... A frontal boundary combined with deep moisture
(precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches) will lead to a
wet day along the coast as low-level moisture transport and
deep omega is maximized. With the cold front across the central
cwa, expect a sharp precip moisture gradient, thus categorical
pops on the coast tapering back to low chance over the coastal
plains. Still enough instability around Sunday morning for a few
strong storms with capes around 1000 j kg near the coast.

Despite a good deal of cloud cover, high temperatures should
reach the mid upper 80s in most areas Sunday.

Sunday night through Tuesday... As the frontal boundary and
associated deeper moisture lingers near the coast, will have a
slight to low chance pop along the coast Sunday night into
Monday night. Precipitation will be enhanced inland as well on
Tuesday as a strong mid-level shortwave dives southeast across
the carolinas and virginia.

Tuesday night through Friday... Strong high pressure will move
from the ohio valley Tuesday night to off the coast by Friday.

This high will provide a somewhat refreshing airmass with lower
humidities and cooler low temperatures. Lows Wednesday morning
will range from the upper 50s inland to low mid 60s coast with
highs Wednesday upper 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures quickly
warm however as southwest winds return and highs return to the
upper 80s for late week and lows moderate into the muggy 70s
once again by Friday.

Aviation 07z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 3 am sat...VFR conditions currently across the sites.

Could see a brief period of MVFR ceilings this morning, but
expect predVFR. SW wind gusts to around 20 kt today. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms expected to develop this
afternoon and tonight. Some strong storms with gusty winds and
heavy rain will be possible this afternoon and tonight. Sub-vfr
conditions expected in convection, and expect pred sub-vfr to
develop tonight.

Long term Sunday through Thursday ...

as of 345 am Saturday... Periods of sub-vfr ceilings and vsbys
may occur Sunday, particularly at kewn and koaj as axis of deep
moisture impacts the region. Think most of the rainfall from
Sunday afternoon through Monday night will be east of the taf
sites andVFR should prevail. Scattered thunderstorms may
produce scattered MVFR ceilings vsbys Tuesday, but will not be
widespread.VFR conditions will prevail Wednesday and Thursday
as high pressure builds in. As usual, patchy late night early
morning fog will be possible, especially in areas that receive
rainfall.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 315 am sat... Strong winds and rough seas continue today.

Latest obs show SW winds 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt and seas
4-8 ft. A cold front will slowly move eastward today and
tonight, pushing into eastern nc late tonight and early Sunday.

Sca continues for the albemarle sound, alligator river, inland
rivers and northern waters through this afternoon, and pamlico
sound and waters south of oregon inlet through late tonight and
Sunday morning. Gusty winds 20-25 kt will continue through much
of today, though diminishing a bit this afternoon. Could see
seas peaking as high as 5-9 feet, highest across the outer
central waters. Winds and seas slowly subsiding overnight and
Sunday morning. SW winds 15-25 kt tonight, with seas subsiding
to 4-7 feet south of oregon inlet. Winds become more wsw w
early Sunday morning. Scattered showers and storms this
afternoon and evening, becoming more widespread tonight. Some
strong storms with gusty winds and frequent lightning possible.

Long term Sunday through Thursday ...

as of 345 am Saturday... Any small craft advisory level seas
should subside fairly quickly on Sunday morning and drop to 2-4
feet during the afternoon. Winds Monday into Tuesday will be
light at 10 knots or less and swing from N on Monday to S Monday
night ahead of strong cold front. Expect winds to become
northerly Tuesday through Wednesday behind cold front. Models
still not indicate a real strong surge behind the front as winds
will generally be N NE at around 10 knots with seas at 2-4 feet.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 3 am sat... Minor coastal flooding will be possible at
times of high tide through the weekend. Moderate threat of rip
currents north of CAPE hatteras, and high threat south of cape
hatteras.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-098-
103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for amz130-
131-136-137.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Sunday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Sunday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Sunday for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for amz150.

Synopsis... Ctc cqd
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Ctc sgk
aviation... Ctc cqd
marine... Ctc cqd
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 18 mi46 min SSW 21 G 31 80°F 61°F1008.7 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi41 min 69°F4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 31 mi46 min SSW 29 G 35 80°F 81°F1010.4 hPa
44095 43 mi58 min 68°F5 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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W11
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W9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC16 mi22 minSSW 19 G 2710.00 miFair and Breezy79°F72°F79%1009.2 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC20 mi31 minSSW 9 G 2010.00 miFair79°F71°F78%1009.5 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC20 mi31 minSW 21 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy79°F73°F84%1010.5 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC24 mi26 minSSW 12 G 2110.00 miFair79°F70°F74%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW9SW7W8W9SW7SW9W8SW9S9SW10SW8SW10SW9SW7SW8SW8SW7SW6SW9SW8SW8SW9SW6SW5
2 days agoSW8SW11W6SW5SW8W6SW11SW7SW7S7SW8SW8SW6S4S4S6SW6SW11SW9SW8SW8SW7SW7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:14 AM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:05 AM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:10 PM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:29 PM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-0.4-0.9-0.7-0.112.23.13.43.22.61.60.5-0.4-0.9-0.70.11.32.63.84.54.53.93

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:17 AM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:10 PM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:37 PM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.9-0.1-0.6-0.50.11.12.23.13.53.32.81.80.7-0.2-0.6-0.40.31.42.73.94.64.74.23.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.