Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Columbia, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:22PM Monday January 22, 2018 11:02 PM EST (04:02 UTC) Moonrise 10:26AMMoonset 10:43PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 1026 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am est Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon...
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Columbia town, NC
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location: 36.05, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 230333
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1033 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west tonight and move
through the area Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the
west late in the week and pass offshore over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 1000 pm Monday... Adjusted hourly temp trends to indicate
rising trend overnight most areas. Rest of forecast on track
with slight chance pops into overnight then increasing near
morning. Warm advection and southerly winds starting to develop
and most guidance indicates steady or rising temps rest of
night.

Previous discussion
as of 210 pm mon... Increasing S winds tonight as cold front
approaches from the w. Radar shows batch of shra to the SW that
will impact SRN cst next few hrs if hold together. Overnight
moisture will grad increase with chc of shra developing late
espcly well inland. Combo of srly flow and clouds will lead to
very mild lows in the 50s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
As of 210 pm mon... A robust frontal system approaches the region
in the morning and is progged to push across the region during
the afternoon. Still expecting a high shear low CAPE scenario
with models indicating 0-6km bulk shear up to around 70kt but
very little CAPE per the gfs ECMWF while the NAM has a little
higher CAPE values to around 500 j kg. Cannot rule out an
isolated storm bringing strong wind gusts but with better
forcing for ascent displaced to the north with moist profiles
expect the overall severe threat to be minimal at this time.

Models are not bringing much QPF with this system with precip
amount around a quarter inch. Rapid drying expected to develop
from W to E in the afternoon as deeper moisture slides
offshore. Continued very mild with highs in the lower 70s inland
but cooler water temps will hold temps in the low to mid 60s
along the coast.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
As of 3 am Monday... High pressure building in will bring dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures Tuesday night through
Friday. A warming trend will occur this weekend with another
threat for showers Saturday night and Sunday.

Tuesday night through Friday..Broad upper troughing continues
across the eastern CONUS with high pressure across the southern
southern plains Wednesday. A mid level disturbance and sfc
trough pushes across the region late Wednesday Wednesday night
and could see a few more clouds across the region but the
airmass remains very dry with pw values only around a third of
an inch and don't expect any precipitation. Will see height
rises across the region Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge
builds into the region keeping dry conditions. Sfc high pressure
builds in from the west Thursday and begins to push offshore
Friday. Temps will be near climatology with highs in the low mid
50s and lows in the low mid 30s. Coastal sections will be
cooler with highs mainly in the mid upper 40s and lows in the
mid to upper 30s.

Saturday through Sunday... The upper ridge and sfc high pressure
continues to slide eastward Saturday as a robust upper trough
and sfc cold front approach the region from the west. Could see
a few WAA showers Saturday night as increasing southerly flow
brings increasing moisture across the region but models
depicting best forcing for ascent to occur Sunday into Sunday
evening. At this time, models indicating another high shear
environment but even less instability than Tuesday's event with
li's remaining positive. Southerly flow bring warmer temps with
highs climbing into the 60s inland to mid 50s to around 60 along
the coast.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through 00z Wed ...

as of 700 pm Monday...VFR conditions expected to persist through
evening hours with only isolated light shower threat. Increasing
southerly flow ahead of approaching cold front expected to
result in lowering CIGS overnight. Adjusted forecast based on
latest guidance to indicate low end of MVFR with some potential
for period of ifr. Scattered to broken coverage of mainly light
showers expected to spread in from west 10z-13z and progress
across area through 18z-21z. Conditions then improving toVFR
with frontal passage.

Light southerly flow through tonight, then increasing 10-15
with gusts to 20 knots Tuesday after 13z.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 330 am Monday... Pred-vfr expected Tuesday night through
Friday as high pressure builds into the region for the latter
half of the week.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 1000 pm Monday... No significant changes with upate.

Previous discussion
as of 210 pm mon... Srly winds will grad ramp up tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front. Expect winds to reach 15 to 20 kts
by 06z and 20 to 25 kts by morning. The ssw winds will peak tue
just ahead of front with winds 20 to 30 kts and frequent gusts
aoa 35 kts expected central wtrs espcly beyond 10 miles where
enhanced mixing expected near warmer sst. The increasing winds
will lead to seas building to 5 to 7 feet by early Tue morning
and peaking at 9 to 11 feet central wtrs in the aftn. Have
upgraded the waters between oregon inlet and CAPE lookout to
gale warning for Tue where higher gusts expected. Also added
albemarle sound alligator river and the inland rivers to the sca
tue where expect at least some gusts AOA 25 kts.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 330 am Monday... The front pushes across the waters late
Tuesday with winds becoming W NW around 10-20 kt Tuesday night
and early Wednesday with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft Wednesday
morning. Winds diminish 5-15 kt Wednesday afternoon but a mid
level disturbance and sfc trough move across the region
Wednesday night that will serve to increase wind back to 10-20
kt into Thursday morning before becoming N around 5-15 kt
Thursday afternoon. Nly winds less than 15 kt Friday gradually
veer to easterly by late in the day with seas around 2-3 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am to 5 pm est Tuesday for amz130-
131-136-137.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for amz135.

Gale warning from 9 am to 5 pm est Tuesday for amz152-154-156.

Small craft advisory from 9 am Tuesday to midnight est Tuesday
night for amz150.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 3 am est Wednesday
for amz158.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Rf jbm
short term... Rf
long term... Sk
aviation... Jbm sk bm
marine... Rf jbm sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 18 mi44 min S 6 G 7 51°F 41°F1018.1 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 20 mi32 min 41°F1 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi47 min 39°F1 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 31 mi50 min S 9.9 G 12 58°F 44°F1018.8 hPa
44095 43 mi44 min 42°F1 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC16 mi68 minS 510.00 miFair52°F52°F100%1018.6 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC20 mi67 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F53°F81%1018.3 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC20 mi67 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F51°F90%1019 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC24 mi47 minS 310.00 miFair53°F48°F86%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S3SE6SW4SE4CalmS3SW7S7S5E6SE3SE6SE5S6SE6S5S5SE5
1 day agoSW7SW7SW6SW6SW6W4W4W4CalmCalmN6N3CalmCalmE3SE3E7SE4CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW7SW8SW8S4SW6SW7SW7SW8SW7SW10SW9SW10SW10SW13SW14SW12
G15
SW12SW9SW8SW9--W8SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:28 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:33 AM EST     3.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:57 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:42 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:04 PM EST     2.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.41.91.20.60.30.30.61.21.92.6332.72.11.40.60.1-0.20.10.61.32.12.72.9

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:29 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:38 AM EST     3.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:59 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:42 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:08 PM EST     3.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.91.30.70.30.30.71.21.92.63.13.22.92.21.50.80.200.20.71.42.12.83.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.