Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Columbia, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 6:24PM Thursday October 19, 2017 11:21 PM EDT (03:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:54AMMoonset 5:42PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 1014 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Overnight..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Columbia town, NC
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location: 36.05, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 200220
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1020 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region through Saturday and
then slide offshore Sunday into Monday. A strong cold front will
approach from the west Tuesday and move across the area Wednesday.

Near term until 7 am Friday morning
As of 1015 pm Thursday... A crystal clear sky has allowed temps
to tumble into the 50s already, outside of the beaches.

Overnight mins of 45-50 are on track inland. I did lower hourly
temps on the outer banks with khse already down to 60. Patchy
fog has already formed at pgv but not seeing it at another other
obs site. Will continue mention patchy fog later tonight and
again especially near inland bodies of water.

Short term 7 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
As of 235 pm Thursday... Another fair weather day on tap with max
temps 1-2 degrees warmer. Ridging aloft will result in surface
high over appalachians building e-ne, with a minor wind shift to
nw-n over eastern nc. Low level thicknesses rise a few meters,
supporting highs 77-80 inland with mid 70s outer banks.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
As of 245 pm thu... Friday night through Sunday... High pressure
centered over the area will move off the coast this weekend.

High temps will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Sat and sun.

Morning lows will be in the upr 40s mid 50s Sat morning, and
into the 50s Sun morning.

Monday through Thursday... Next significant shortwave cold front
moves into the eastern CONUS by early next week. The models have
slowed down the progression of the shortwave and cold front,
especially the ecmwf. The upper trough becomes a closed low and
hence a slower solution would be favored. With the run-to-run
inconsistency amongst global model suite having a tough time
resolving amplitude of short wave trough and thus timing of the
associated cold front will continue with just chance pops.

Shower chances will increase Monday into Monday night, going
with 20-30% Monday and 40-50% Monday night. Highest pops are
now Tue into Tue night, though Wed could be quite wet if the
slower ecm verifies, so pops are 40-50 percent through mid week.

Too early to tell if thunder will be a factor, but have
maintained the slight chc thunder mention as at least some weak
instability will be present with decent shear parameters. Monday
looks to be the warmest day with highs in the low 80s inland to
70s beaches. Tue could be equally warm with the slower
advancement of the front. Lows early next week quite mild with
the warm and moist southerly flow with readings mainly in the
60s. Dry and cooler conditions expected behind the front Thursday
with highs in the mid 60s throughout.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through 0z Saturday ...

as of 715 pm Thursday...VFR mostly skc conditions prevailing
for most of TAF period. Some patchy MVFR to ifr vsbys in
radiational fog late tonight... With best chc of ifr occurring at
pgv due to proximity of river. Based on the observations last
night will start some ifr at pgv as early as 05z, with the most
likely window coming between 07z and 1130z. Elsewhere will
continue to show MVFR vsbys but a very dry atmosphere keeps our
confidence at only medium with conditions expected to be brief
and varying. Return toVFR Friday by 12z. Wind near calm tonight
and light north Friday at less than 5 kts.

Long term Fri night through tue
as of 245 pm thu... PredVFR conditions expected through the
weekend. However, there will be optimal radiational conditions
fri night, and some patchy steam fog may be possible at both
kpgv and kewn with their proximity to rivers. Maybe a better
chance of more widespread overnight early morning fog all taf
sites this weekend as low level moisture increases and skies
remain clear with calm winds each night. Sub-vfr in scattered
showers spreading in from the southwest Monday into Monday night
and Tuesday ahead of the next front approaching from the west.

Isolated thunder possible Tuesday.

Marine
Short term through Friday ...

as of 1015 pm Thursday... 5 foot seas at diamond earlier are now
down to 4 feet. High pressure centered to W will move e-ne
tonight and Friday, resulting in winds backing to nw-n but
speeds continuing 5-10 kt. Seas will continue to subside to
around 3 feet by late Friday.

Long term Fri night through tue
as of 245 pm thu... High pressure over the region Fri night will
shift east. Northeast winds Fri night and Sat will become east
Sunday though speeds only 5-10 kt through the period with seas
2-4 ft bringing excellent boating conditions throughout the
marine zones. Winds will turn southeast then south on Monday as
high pressure moves further offshore. Winds will slowly increase
from 5-10 kt in the morning to 10-15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
will be 2-4 ft north of CAPE hatteras and 3-5 ft south. Strong
small craft conditions will develop on the coastal waters Monday
night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead
of the approaching front.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Jbm eh
short term... Jbm
long term... Hsa
aviation... Jbm eh hsa
marine... Jbm eh hsa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 18 mi51 min SSW 5.1 G 5.1 66°F 69°F1022 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 20 mi51 min 70°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi46 min 70°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 31 mi51 min SSE 1 G 1.9 66°F 69°F1022.4 hPa
44095 43 mi63 min 71°F3 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC16 mi27 minSSW 510.00 miFair55°F55°F100%1022.5 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC20 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair63°F61°F95%1022.3 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC20 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair0°F0°F%1022.7 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC24 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair57°F56°F98%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N5NE7N6N5NE3N3N5N5N3CalmE53NE6NE5E7CalmCalmE6SE4CalmCalmCalmS5
1 day agoN11N10N10N9N9N7N8N10N7N7NE5NE11NE11NE11NE9E6E7NE8E7E6E5NE6N5N6
2 days agoN11N11N10N11N9N10N12N14
G19
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G23
N8NE14NE13N11N10N10N10N8N10N10

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:32 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT     4.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:05 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.20.10.61.42.53.544.13.83.12.11.10.40.20.411.92.83.43.63.42.92

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:35 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:08 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     3.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.10.10.51.32.43.444.23.93.22.21.10.40.10.30.91.82.73.43.73.532.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.