Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carmel Valley Village, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:15PM Monday January 15, 2018 11:37 PM PST (07:37 UTC) Moonrise 6:08AMMoonset 4:23PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ565 Point Pinos To Point Piedras Blancas To 10 Nm- 809 Pm Pst Mon Jan 15 2018
Tonight..W winds 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 12 to 13 ft at 18 seconds. Slight chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 13 to 14 ft at 16 seconds. Slight chance of rain in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 12 to 14 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 10 to 12 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 8 to 10 ft at 21 seconds.
Thu..W winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 12 to 15 ft...increasing to 17 to 20 ft. Slight chance of rain, then chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 14 to 17 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 12 to 15 ft.
PZZ500 809 Pm Pst Mon Jan 15 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Southwesterly winds will continue tonight as a storm system approaches from the west. A longer period swell will continue to impact the coast through Tuesday. A larger and more powerful swell will arrive Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carmel Valley Village, CA
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location: 36.1, -121.76     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 160601
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
1001 pm pst Mon jan 15 2018

Synopsis A weakening storm system will bring light rainfall to
mainly the northern half of the region through Tuesday morning.

Conditions then dry out late Tuesday into Wednesday before another
weak system brings additional rainfall to much of the region.

With a colder air mass in place, lingering showers are likely on
Friday. A drying trend and cooler temperatures are forecast for
the weekend before a third, potentially stronger system, arrives
late in the weekend.

Discussion As of 9:01 pm pst Monday... Models appear to have a
good handle on the current weather situation this evening. Light
rain has been reported over sonoma and marin for the last few
hours with accumulations anywhere from a hundredth to just under
a tenth of an inch. The approaching system will bring light rain
to the north bay region through late this evening with light
rain spreading south across the greater san francisco bay area
overnight. While the north bay area will see the bulk of the
precip with storm totals around 0.3" to 0.5", models indicate the
trailing end of the frontal boundary will deposit anywhere from
0.1" to 0.2" across the bay area as the front dissipates. The
santa cruz mountain will likely see slightly more due to the
terrain unfortunately little to none is expected from the
monterey bay south.

So far the winds have stayed fairly light with sustained winds
around 5 to 10 mph. Higher elevations in the north and east
bays continue to see elevated gusts to around 20 mph. Breezy
conditions are expected to accompany frontal passage overnight
however widespread gusty winds are not anticipated.

Weak ridging, anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday, will bring
a return to dry conditions and near normal temperatures as the
region transitions between system.

From previous discussion... Our next system is forecast to arrive
late Wednesday into Thursday and bring additional rainfall to the
region. This system too appears to be generally weak as the bulk
of mid upper level support remains well north of the region.

However, much colder air is forecast to advect southward and
result in lowering snow levels across the state. With a colder air
mass and mid upper level trough aloft, do expect lingering post
frontal showers into Friday. Additional rainfall amounts range
from around 1 4" to 1 2" for most urban areas (greatest in the
north bay and along the coast) with less than 1 4" for our drier
inland valleys. Coastal ranges in the north bay could see upwards
of around 1" with amounts closer to 1 2" for the coastal ranges to
the south.

As conditions dry out late Friday into Saturday, colder overnight
conditions are likely. Look for widespread 30s inland with lower 40s
near the coast Friday night into Saturday morning and again Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Much of this will depend on how much
clearing occurs this weekend so be sure to check back for updated
forecast information.

The forecast models continue to show the potential for a stronger
system to impact the region late in the weekend into early next
week. However, the models and run-to-run solutions do differ on the
details at this time. With that said, do look for widespread
rainfall and slightly stronger winds with this third system. Again,
stay tuned for additional details on potential impacts.

Aviation As of 10:00 pm pst Monday... Little change from the
previous TAF package as light rain is forecast to move across
some of the terminals tonight. Main focus will be north of san
jose. CIGS remain tricky although koak has now dropped down to
MVFR level along with ksts. That should continue into the morning.

Winds generally under 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Vicinity of ksfo... Latest cig is around 035 which is close to
thinking from the previous package. Would expect it to drop to
around 025 in the next couple of hours. Models continue to show
rain returning around 10z possibly lasting for a few hours.

However, generally returning to dry weather by or even before 14z.

Vfr after 16z. Moderate confidence.

Sfo bridge approach... Rain favored for northern portion of the
approach over the southern portion. Otherwise similar to sfo.

Monterey bay terminals... GenerallyVFR through the period as the
system will be too far to the north. Potential for mvrf at kmry
after 10z. Ksns has already dropped down to ifr and will likely be
there all night.VFR after 16z tomorrow. Moderate to high
confidence.

Marine As of 8:09 pm pst Monday... Southwesterly winds will
continue tonight as a storm system approaches from the west. A
longer period swell will continue to impact the coast through
Tuesday. A larger and more powerful swell will arrive Wednesday
night or Thursday morning.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday High surf advisory... Caz006-505-509-529-530
sca... Rough bar advisory for sf bar
public forecast: cw
aviation: bell
marine: bell
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 25 mi37 min 57°F9 ft
46028 - CAPE SAN MARTIN - 55NM West Northwest of Morro Bay, CA 27 mi47 min W 5.8 G 7.8 55°F 57°F9 ft1020.9 hPa (+1.4)
MEYC1 36 mi61 min ESE 1 G 1.9 53°F 57°F1021.2 hPa
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 37 mi46 min 57°F5 ft
46092 - MBM1 47 mi82 min ESE 3.9 56°F 57°F1020.1 hPa (+0.0)
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 49 mi112 min Calm 55°F 1021 hPa54°F

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monterey Regional Airport, CA34 mi43 minSE 38.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F51°F97%1023 hPa

Wind History from MRY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE3E5E5NE4E8E7CalmSW4CalmW5SW9W4N4N3CalmS5CalmCalmE3E5SE3
1 day agoCalmCalmE4CalmS3E5CalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmNW4NW64NW3CalmNE4E8CalmCalmE3E8Calm
2 days agoNE7NE4NE6E6E10E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNE3CalmE5SE4E3E4E4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Carmel Cove, Carmel Bay, California
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Carmel Cove
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:11 AM PST     2.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:18 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:15 AM PST     5.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:38 PM PST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:14 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:16 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:27 PM PST     3.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.63.22.92.72.83.23.84.65.25.55.44.83.82.51.20.2-0.4-0.4-00.81.82.73.43.7

Tide / Current Tables for Monterey, Monterey Harbor, California
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Monterey
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:15 AM PST     2.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:18 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:18 AM PST     5.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM PST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:13 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:16 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:30 PM PST     3.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.73.432.82.93.33.94.75.45.75.6542.71.40.3-0.3-0.400.81.82.83.53.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.