Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nashville-Davidson, TN
March 19, 2024 2:45 AM CDT (07:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:49 AM Sunset 6:59 PM Moonrise 1:48 PM Moonset 4:12 AM |
Area Discussion for - Nashville, TN
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FXUS64 KOHX 190654 AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 154 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
We've got another great day on tap today, with temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday and lotsa sun. Here's the issue: fire weather conditions are worsening. We're 4 to 5 days removed from our last rain and with RH values in the low 20s to potentially some upper teens, and breezy 20 ft winds, elevated fire dangers are going to exist. For this reason, I'm collaborating with my neighbors on issuing a Fire Danger statement and discussing the potential for a Red Flag Warning. RHs should be a little better tomorrow, but winds will also be weaker, so we'll cross that bridge tomorrow night.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Two shots at rain in this forecast. The first is late Thursday night and Friday. With the surface low south of us, this looks like a rain event, so no mention of thunder. There are some model differences regarding PoPs, but these are coming in line better with this suite of models. Rainfall totals aren't great by any means. Quarter inch or less is expected.
The weekend looks pretty stinkin' nice. Highs in the 60s and dry.
Saturday could be a little breezy.
Second chance of rain is in the Monday night to Tuesday night time frame. Pretty large timing discrepancies right now so I'm coming off the likely NBM PoPs in the extended. Will carry chance PoPs until some better agreement is had. Synoptically, this system is impressive, but the thermodynamics here in the mid-state are not.
100 or less J/Kg across the board leaves me with barely a mention of thunder with this package. However, with the amount of shear and negative tilt to this system, it bares watching over the next several days.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle. While winds will be calm to very light through 14Z, gusty conditions are expected through much of the afternoon and into the evening at all mid- state terminals. Southwest gusts of 20-25 kts will be common.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 58 40 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 56 39 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 51 36 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 57 39 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 52 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 51 36 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 56 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 57 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 56 40 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 154 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
We've got another great day on tap today, with temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday and lotsa sun. Here's the issue: fire weather conditions are worsening. We're 4 to 5 days removed from our last rain and with RH values in the low 20s to potentially some upper teens, and breezy 20 ft winds, elevated fire dangers are going to exist. For this reason, I'm collaborating with my neighbors on issuing a Fire Danger statement and discussing the potential for a Red Flag Warning. RHs should be a little better tomorrow, but winds will also be weaker, so we'll cross that bridge tomorrow night.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Two shots at rain in this forecast. The first is late Thursday night and Friday. With the surface low south of us, this looks like a rain event, so no mention of thunder. There are some model differences regarding PoPs, but these are coming in line better with this suite of models. Rainfall totals aren't great by any means. Quarter inch or less is expected.
The weekend looks pretty stinkin' nice. Highs in the 60s and dry.
Saturday could be a little breezy.
Second chance of rain is in the Monday night to Tuesday night time frame. Pretty large timing discrepancies right now so I'm coming off the likely NBM PoPs in the extended. Will carry chance PoPs until some better agreement is had. Synoptically, this system is impressive, but the thermodynamics here in the mid-state are not.
100 or less J/Kg across the board leaves me with barely a mention of thunder with this package. However, with the amount of shear and negative tilt to this system, it bares watching over the next several days.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle. While winds will be calm to very light through 14Z, gusty conditions are expected through much of the afternoon and into the evening at all mid- state terminals. Southwest gusts of 20-25 kts will be common.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 58 40 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 56 39 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 51 36 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 57 39 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 52 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 51 36 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 56 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 57 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 56 40 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KJWN JOHN C TUNE,TN | 5 sm | 10 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 28°F | 21°F | 74% | 30.21 | |
KBNA NASHVILLE INTL,TN | 7 sm | 52 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 30°F | 19°F | 64% | 30.24 | |
KMQY SMYRNA,TN | 18 sm | 49 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 28°F | 23°F | 80% | 30.25 |
Nashville, TN,
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