Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duck, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:14PM Friday July 28, 2017 2:48 PM EDT (18:48 UTC) Moonrise 10:35AMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ658 Coastal Waters From Nc Va Border To Currituck Beach Light Nc Out 20 Nm- 1236 Pm Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Scattered tstms. Showers likely early this afternoon, then scattered showers late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Tstms likely. Showers.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...building to 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers with tstms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 15 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...building to 6 to 9 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft...subsiding to 6 to 8 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft... Subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft... Subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..E winds 5 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1236 Pm Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front approaches from the northwest today, and slowly pushes across the waters on Saturday. An area of low pressure moves along the front and slides off the coast Sunday into Monday. High pressure slowly builds in from the west Monday afternoon through the mid week period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duck, NC
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location: 36.18, -75.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 281824
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
224 pm edt Fri jul 28 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure affects the region today through Saturday... With a
cold front slowly pushing across the region tonight into
Saturday morning. The front pushes southeast of the area by
Sunday with an upper low sitting overhead through at least
Monday night.

Near term through tonight
A new flash flood watch has been issued for northeast north
carolina... Where up to 3-4 inches have already fallen, and
another 2-3 inches is possible.

Previous discussion...

lee trough tightens and develops into a meso-low late in the
day as a cold front drops down from the nnw. Ongoing convection
early this morning should primarily move offshore shortly after
sunrise with pockets of showers lingering through mid morning.

After which, daytime heating within the warm sector ahead of the
front will destabilize the atmosphere and allow more storms to
develop this aftn; initially where shortwave energy interacts
with the lee trough and then as conditions become more unstable.

Meanwhile, an open trough over the upper great lakes will dig
into the ohio valley today and help to slowly push the cold
front across the area from late this aftn through tonight.

Widespread thunderstorms should be anticipated tonight. Slow
movement of the front, weak sfc-upper level winds, small mbe
vectors, and pwats increasing from roughly 1.50 inches to around
2.00 inches (or 150-175 percent of normal) by this evening, all
indicate that heavy rainfall will impact the region.

Additionally as the upper low interacts with the sfc meso-low, a
deformation zone will develop and enhance rainfall rates in an
already moisture- laden atmosphere... Primarily across the
maryland lower eastern shore, northern neck, middle peninsula,
and accomack county in va. Have really ramped up 6hr QPF amounts
in these areas (00z model guidance in better agreement) and
expanded the flash flood watch to include the aforementioned va
areas. While there is still some uncertainty about how far south
the deformation axis will set up, the general trend keeps the
best area for enhancement across the north. Storm total qpf
amounts from today through 18z Sat range from 2.00 to almost
3.50 inches within flash flood watch area. Convective processes
will be capable of pushing these amounts higher locally under
stronger, slow-moving storm cores. SPC now has the mid atlantic
region within a marginal risk for severe storms today tonight.

As such, any thunderstorms that develop in this timeframe will
be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, locally strong wind
gusts, frequent lightning, and localized flooding.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
The cold front is expected to stall over far SE va NE nc on
Saturday before shifting southeast of the area late Saturday
night. Overall, sfc high pressure builds across the midwest as
the upper low opening trough sits over the mid atlantic coast
through at least Monday night before shifting ewd and away from
the coast. Showers storms will be focused along the coast with
more widely scattered storms possible farther inland due to
elevated lift present with the upper low. Precip chances
expected to wane late Saturday night into Sunday as the front
gets shunted farther se. Once again, primary threats from any
thunderstorms Sat sat night will be moderate to heavy rainfall,
locally strong wind gusts, and frequent lightning.

Widespread precipitation, cloud cover, and cooler canadian air
with the upper trough will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees below
normal Saturday. Highs Sat in the mid-upper 70s NW to
lower 80s se. Low temperatures cool off nicely with lows each
night in the lower 60s NW to mid-upper 60s se.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Low confidence forecast early next week as the models continue to
offer up different solutions on just how slow and far off the coast
the cut off low tracks. Rather breezy over eastern sections with
continued marine issues early next week. Otw, high pressure over
the mts keeps the rest of the fa dry. Highs Mon in the upr 70s-
lwr 80s except mid 70s at the beaches. Lows in the 60s to near
70 sern beach areas.

High pressure builds across the region for the mid week period.

Highs Tue in the mid-upr 80s except upr 70s at the beaches. Lows
in the mid 60s-lwr 70s. Highs Wed Thu 85-90. Moisture returns
from the west Thu afternoon. Added slight chc diurnal pops to
the piedmont.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Vfr at most TAF sites to start off the 18z TAF period, with
conditions deteriorating for the remainder of the aftn due to
increasing likelihood of shras tstms, with heavy rain psbl as
well. Expect mainly MVFR ifr conditions with the rain, with some
lifr psbl. A frontal bndry drops into the area tonight, with low
cigs (ifr MVFR) continuing into the day Sat especially at ksby.

Conditions then slowly improve late Sat and Sat night as the
front slides offshore. Sfc high pres andVFR conditions then for
early next week.

Marine
Relatively quiet in the near term for the marine area, some
enhancement of the winds with showers tstms with brief gusts to
20-25 kt, but outside of any convection winds are mainly 15 kt
or less. Similar conditions through today into this evening
with S SW winds mainly 10-15 kt outside of convection, slowly
shifting to the W NW late tonight early sat. Seas avg 2-4 ft and
bay waves up to 2 ft.

The main story continues to be a strong cold frontal passage
sat Sat night (by mid summer standards). Latest nam GFS ecwmf gem
have now trended much closer with respect to timing and the
overall position of the primary features, lending to increasing
confidence in the marine forecast. At least SCA headlines will
be needed, but given that it will be a late 3rd 4th period (and
beyond) event, its too early to issue any SCA headlines with the
morning package. Did issue a gale watch for coastal waters N of
cape charles for late Sat sat night given an area of 850 mb
u-anomaly (easterly) winds of 4 std dev from nj to the delmarva.

If it does occur this would be of the marginal gale variety
(i.E. Sustained winds 25-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt). In any
event, a decent surged noted to develop by Sat aftn from N to s
across the waters as sfc low deepens along just off the delmarva
coast, followed by strong caa, especially Sat night. Seas build
to 7-10 ft for coastal waters by Sat night sun, with 4-5 ft
waves for the bay.

Conditions slowly improve Sun night Monday, but ongoing sca's
will persist due to lingering NE swell will likely result in
marine issues through at least late Mon or tue.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels have slowly diminished with no additional
statements needed. However, at least minor flooding may be
possible Sunday Mon along the coast and in the lower bay with
the strong N NE flow behind the departing sfc low and associated
cold front.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Flash flood watch through Saturday evening for mdz021>025.

Nc... Flash flood watch through Saturday morning for ncz012>017-
030>032-102.

Va... Flash flood watch through Saturday evening for vaz064-075>078-
084>086-099-517>522.

Marine... Gale watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Bmd mas
short term... Bmd
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mas
marine... Lkb
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 0 mi48 min SSW 12 G 14 75°F 65°F1009.5 hPa (-1.5)
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 2 mi48 min 69°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 10 mi43 min 73°F2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 29 mi48 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 75°F 79°F1010.5 hPa (-1.6)
44095 37 mi60 min 77°F3 ft
41062 44 mi48 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 78°F1011.4 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC12 mi63 minN 03.00 miRain74°F74°F100%1010.5 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC18 mi63 minN 04.00 miRain75°F73°F97%1010.8 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC21 mi53 minS 33.00 miLight Rain75°F71°F88%1010.2 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC23 mi54 minS 49.00 miLight Rain78°F75°F93%1010.1 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S5SW4SW5S4CalmSW7SW5
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE5NE6CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmCalmCalmE5E8CalmNE3CalmNE6

Tide / Current Tables for FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina
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FRF Pier
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Fri -- 05:58 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:13 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:26 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.53.22.51.60.70.1-0.10.10.71.62.53.33.53.432.31.40.70.40.40.81.42.22.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:58 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:09 PM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:26 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.53.12.51.60.70.1-0.10.10.71.62.63.23.53.432.31.50.80.50.50.91.52.32.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.