Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Mills, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:56PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:51 PM EST (03:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:23PMMoonset 1:55AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ633 Currituck Sound- 934 Pm Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 934 Pm Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will push into the northern waters by this evening. The front stalls tonight, then lifts back north of the area as a warm front by Sunday morning. Another cold front moves across the entire region Sunday night into Monday. High pressure builds across the waters Tuesday, and slides off the coast on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Mills, NC
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location: 36.44, -76.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 250109
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
809 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
A frontal boundary will stall over southern virginia tonight
before lifting back north as a warm front Sunday morning. A
cold front crosses the mid atlantic Sunday night and settles
across north carolina Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Backdoor cold fronts always seem to amaze me, even with 30+ years
in the business. This one just wants to hang around as the 01z msas
has the boundary on a orf-ptb-fvx line. High res models take it a
bit farther south next few hrs, before lifting it back north as a
warm front after 08z. Light rain drizzle progged to remain north
of the bndry so will keep likely chc pops across the north, remaining
dry across the south. Fog patchy in nature ATTM and limited to the
northern zones of the local area. Will continue to tweek grids toward
current obs this eve as conditions are quickly changing. Lows in the
50s to near 60 southern most zones except 45-50 lwr md ERN shore.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday
A cold front approaches from the W Sunday morning. This front
should be slow to cross the area given the strength of the
ridge, so have opted for an evening frontal passage, although
24 12z model consensus suggests that thicker mid high clouds
arrive over the piedmont during the aftn, which could have some
impact on high temperatures. Nevertheless, still very warm
Sunday with high temperatures in the low mid 70s over the
piedmont, upper 70s to low 80s for s-central SE va and NE nc,
with low mid 70s over the ERN shore, and locally mid upper 60s
for the md beaches. See the climate section for recored highs.

The best upper level forcing lifts well N of the area, so pops
at this time are limited to 20-40% ahead of and along the front.

Forecast soundings do depict some steeper lapse rates within
the 850-700mb layer, but rather stable above that layer, given
this, have not included any thunder at this time.

The cold front drops across the area Sunday night and settles
over nc Monday. A secondary area of low pressure tracks along
the front along with some mid-level energy and this is expected
to bring a period of light rain mainly across SRN va NE nc
(60-80% pops) overnight Sunday night through midday Monday.

Cooler behind the front, but still above normal with lows Sunday
night in the upper 40s N to mid 50s s. Highs Monday in the
upper 50s to around 60f, but these values could fall during the
day, especially se.

1030mb high pressure builds in from the NW Monday night. Mostly
clear, and actually almost seasonably cool with overnight low
temperatures in the mid 30s N to low 40s se. High pressure
remains in vicinity of the mid-atlantic coast Tuesday. Sunny
with high temperatures moderating into the mid upper 50s over
the ERN shore to the low 60s farther inland.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
High pressure over the area Tuesday shifts offshore Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night dip down to around 40
degrees. Dry for much of the day on Wednesday with showers
approaching the southwest portions of the area after 18z. Highs
Wednesday top out in the low to mid 60s and drop to near 50
degrees Wednesday night.

Strong area of low pressure develops over the southern plains
Wednesday moving into the great lakes by Thursday. Moisture
increases across the region Wednesday night into Thursday as a
warm front lifts across the region. A trailing cold front is
expected to cross the region on Thursday. Models continue to
show a decent moisture feed from the southwest so will continue
to carry likely pops for Wednesday night and Thursday. Any
chances for thunder will depend on the actual timing of the cold
frontal passage. It should be a pretty decent rainfall for much
of the region with models showing in excess of an inch of qpf
with this system. Highs on Thursday low to mid 60s and lows
Thursday night mid to upper 40s.

Cold front will have cleared the area by Friday bringing a
return to more seasonable temperatures. A few showers cannot be
ruled out on Friday, especially near the coast. Cooler weather
makes a return for Saturday. Highs on Friday will range from the
mid to upper 50s and highs on Saturday will range from the low
to mid 50s.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
Weak cold front will continue to slowly meander south this
evening before moving back front as a warm front early Sunday.

The front is currently draped across roughly the center of the
area from ric to phf as of 00z. Ifr to lifr ceilings north of
the boundary are impacting sby and will continue overnight
before the front retreats back north. Ric and phf will be right
on the line of lower ceilings, introduced MVFR ceilings after
02z at ric and left phf asVFR at the moment. All sites improve
toVFR Sunday morning except for potentially the far north
where lower ceilings may linger a bit longer. Sct to bkn mid and
high clouds are expected later Sunday morning into the
afternoon with a 10 to 15 knot wind gusting 20 to 25 knots.

There is a 20-40% of showers later in the afternoon as a cold
front approaches the region.

Outlook: the cold front crosses the region Sunday evening with
the potential for cig vsby restrictions along with periods of
light rain overnight Sunday through midday Monday. High pressure
arrives Monday night and Tuesday bringing drier conditions to
the area. High pressure slides offshore Wednesday with a low
pressure system and associated cold front impacting the region
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Marine
As of 8 pm, will be maintaining marine fog advisory north of
parramore island on the atlantic side thru 7am.

Otherwise, offshore high and ssw winds dominate into tonight,
except north where another backdoor cold front will sag south
into the northern waters (winds will shift to the ene in these
areas). Front lifts back N early Sun morning with a breezy sw
flow on Sunday. Expect the warm airmass over cold water
inversion to keep mixing limited, but still may see some gusts
to around 20 kt during the day over much of the area. Marginal
scas are possible, especially bay and lower james, but low
confidence will preclude issuance at this time. The next cold
front crosses the waters Sun night with a wind shift back to the
n-ne for mon. No real CAA surges noted behind the front, so
kept winds seas below SCA levels, but will probably have a few
hrs worth of elevated winds early Monday behind the front, and
again Mon night early Tue as sfc high pressure builds into the
area from the wnw. High pressure centers over the marine area
Tuesday before pushing offshore again late Wednesday. Sub-sca
conditions should continue thru midweek.

Climate
No record high temps were recorded Saturday. Very warm
temperatures will return Sunday.

* record highs rec high mins
* site: Sun 2 25
* ric: 83 (1930)... 54 (1930)
* orf: 81 (2017)... 59 (1930)
* sby: 80 (1930)... 52 (1930)
* ecg: 78 (2017)... 54 (1985)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 7 am est Sunday for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Ajz mas
long term... Ajb
aviation... Ajb ajz
marine... Jdm
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 23 mi52 min NNE 5.1 G 7 64°F 54°F1018.7 hPa (+0.3)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 31 mi52 min NE 8 G 9.9 53°F 1019 hPa (+0.8)
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 34 mi52 min SSW 13 G 15 65°F 47°F1019 hPa (+0.0)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 35 mi52 min 50°F1019.2 hPa (+0.6)
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 35 mi52 min 49°F2 ft
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 37 mi52 min NE 8.9 G 12 56°F 1019.3 hPa (+0.5)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 37 mi52 min NNE 13 G 14 51°F 1019.4 hPa (+0.6)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 37 mi52 min ENE 6 G 11 47°F
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 39 mi67 min 49°F3 ft
CHBV2 42 mi52 min ENE 9.9 G 13 49°F 1018.1 hPa (+0.6)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 45 mi52 min 47°F2 ft
44096 48 mi61 min 45°F2 ft

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC14 mi58 minS 910.00 miFair66°F64°F93%1019.1 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC15 mi72 minS 310.00 miFair63°F58°F84%1019.3 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA15 mi77 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F59°F84%1019 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA23 mi57 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast66°F60°F82%1019 hPa

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS5S6S6S7SW8SW6SW9SW7SW6SW9SW13SW13S14SW13S10SW13SW11SW9S5S4S4S7S9
1 day agoNE12N8N10N11N9N10N9N8N8N9N6N6NW5N4N5N5CalmW4NE3E3SE9SE7SE6S4
2 days agoS9S8S8SW6S4S5SW5S5S7SW6S8S8SW10SW10SW12
G20
SW8W8SW8SW10SW3S3CalmCalmNE16
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Tide / Current Tables for Deep Creek Entrance, Elizabeth River, Virginia
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Deep Creek Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:55 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:43 AM EST     3.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:14 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:12 PM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.222.633.12.82.31.710.40.20.30.71.21.82.32.52.421.40.80.2-0.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for Money Point, South Bridge, Elizabeth River, Virginia
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Money Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:55 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:28 AM EST     2.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:11 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:00 PM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:16 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.322.62.92.92.62.11.50.90.40.20.30.71.31.92.32.52.31.91.40.80.3-00.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.