Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 1:58 PM   Moonset 3:39 AM

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FXUS66 KHNX 172044 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 144 PM PDT Wed Apr 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

1. A warming trend is expected through Thursday.

2. Maximum temperatures will remain above seasonal values Friday through at least Monday.

3. The warmer weather will not cause hydrological concerns due to snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada.

4. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the Sierra Nevada both Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

A high latitude omega block attempts to develop over northern British Columbia and the Yukon keeping California in a weak westerly flow aloft tonight and Thursday continuing the slow warming trend. Climatic normals for this time of spring are highs in the mid 70s and lows from 45 to the lower 50s north to south in the San Joaquin Valley. The PoE of 85 degrees on Thursday:

Madera 11% Merced 2% Fresno 41% Reedley 6% Lemoore NAS 31% Hanford 31% Visalia 26% Porterville 21% Delano 41% Bakersfield 41% Edwards AFB 51% China Lake NAF 81%

A weak upper level wave slides through Friday afternoon through Saturday across the southern half of the Golden State. This will aide to keep temperatures very similar with similar PoE of 85 as Thursday. The main difference will be the probability of Thunderstorms over the Sierra. The convective available potential energy is modest. The mid-level lapse rates are marginal with the range from 6.5 to 7.5 C/km. The old school lifted index even falls into the 0 to -4C range. NBM point probabilities range from 5% in the valley locations and top out in the Sierra around 15%. For now will maintain the threat as low end and message the low probability without the introduction into the deterministic forecast.

Saturday night through Monday a westerly flow develops to maintain temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Monday a piece of an upper low in the North Central Pacific breaks a wave off that allows an increase of the ridge to bring temperatures up a few degrees here is the PoE of 85 for Monday:

Madera 21% Merced 11% Fresno 41% Reedley 31% Lemoore NAS 41% Hanford 41% Visalia 41% Porterville 46% Delano 51% Bakersfield 51% Edwards AFB 56% China Lake NAF 91%

Tuesday and Wednesday next week features an upper trough over the West Coast of the CONUS. This slides temperatures back to seasonal normals and introduces slim probabilities of precipitation in the higher elevations of Yosemite NP.

AVIATION
VFR. Only a slim probability of brief MVFR 10Z-14Z along the Highway 99 corridor in the rural regions with 3-5SM visibility and in areas, like the vicinity of KHJO or KVIS, a very brief shot of down to 1SM similar to this morning.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 04/16/2024 14:27 EXPIRES: 04/17/2024 23:59 None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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