Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Lakes, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:18PM Thursday January 17, 2019 10:06 AM PST (18:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:07PMMoonset 3:35AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 852 Am Pst Thu Jan 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft this morning...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 13 to 18 ft at 19 seconds. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 14 to 19 ft at 18 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 10 to 15 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 11 ft at 14 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 8 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 8 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Martin luther king jr day..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 7 ft. Winds and wind waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
PZZ500 852 Am Pst Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Winds will continue to gradually diminish through the day. However, the sea state will be hazardous with a very large and long period west swell. This swell will build through the day and persist into Friday. This incoming swell will prolong the hazardous sea conditions throughout the waters, particularly for small vessels.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes CDP, CA
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location: 36.83, -122.01     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 171740
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
940 am pst Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis Cold front has pushed through the area with scattered
showers developing in the postfrontal unstable airmass. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue on Thursday. A chance of
showers will persist Friday and Saturday across the north bay with
dry conditions elsewhere. A chance of light rain will return
regionwide on Sunday as a weak front passes through. Dry weather
returns Monday through the rest of next week with mild
temperatures.

Discussion As of 09:00 am pst Thursday... Quick update. Water
levels have receded across majority of stream gages and have since
allowed flood products to expire on the carmel river, guadalupe
river, and the small streams and creeks of sonoma county from
graton to petaluma. In addition, tidal levels have peaked between
7 and 8 am and the coastal flood advisory will be allowed to
expire at 9am.

Overall, mostly beneficial rain from the last storm system with
some small pockets of impactful flooding and mudslides. The main
impact from this storm system came from the strong winds, both in
sustained and gust format. These strong winds lead to widespread
downing of trees and powerlines.

Peak wind gusts:
98mph at big rock ridge (marin), 87mph at cobb ridge (marin), 85
at mt umunhum (santa clara).

Peak precipitation reports:
venado (sonoma) 6.44", three peaks (big sur) 5.79", mt umunhum:
4.64"
current office focus is on monitoring radar given the unstable
post frontal environment. A line of deep convective cells passed
over the san francisco peninsula and east bay between 7 and 830am
this morning and is now pushing into the santa cruz mountains and
south bay. Embedded thunderstorms within this line of cells have
produced brief intense downpours on order of 1 4" in 5 minutes,
with drastic reductions in visibility, quarter inch hail, and a
few lightning strikes. We are now watching some mid level rotation
in a pair of cells off of the santa cruz coast near davenport.

Short term model suggests shower and thunderstorm activity will
continue through the morning and gradually out of the area by
early in the afternoon. See previous discussion for more
information on the current forecast package.

Previous discussion As of 3:45 am pst Thursday... Strong cold
front and atmospheric river have pushed southeast, ending the
threat of heavy rain. A few showers have lingered, mainly across
the north bay and in the higher coastal terrain. Winds have also
decreased behind the front with gusts up to 40 mph in the higher
elevations and most lower elevations below 20 mph. Scattered
showers are developing in the cool unstable airmass with some
embedded thunderstorms. So far thunderstorms have stayed to our
north in mendocino county but these may develop further south into
the morning hours. A slight chance of thunderstorms is in the
forecast through Thursday afternoon. Low freezing levels will
support small hail reaching the ground in thunderstorms which
form. Brief heavy rain is also possible with any storms. Outside
of any thunderstorms which form additional rainfall amounts are
expected to be light, with up to an inch in the north bay and
coastal mountains, less than a half inch in the north bay valleys,
and less than a quarter inch elsewhere. Locally higher amounts
are possible where any thunderstorms form.

Small streams have crested with streams in the north
bay above flood stage gradually dropping. The napa and russian
rivers are continuing to rise but are expected to crest early
Thursday and remain below flood stage. A few rivers across the
southern portion of the area continue to be on the rise with a
few rising into minor flood stage. With the heavy rain ended these
should peak early Thursday as well.

An upper level ridge will then build over the area on Friday. This
will push the storm track to our north, keeping most of the area
dry. While the vast majority of the precipitation will fall to our
north, some moisture will make it far enough south to bring a
chance of showers into the north bay Friday and Saturday. Rainfall
amounts will be very light with less than a quarter inch fri-sat.

High temperatures during this time will be warmest across the
southern areas, warming into the mid 60s from san jose south on
Saturday. Low temperatures will cool somewhat versus the past
couple of nights, but moisture and a mild airmass will keep lows
in the mid 40s to low 50s.

A shortwave trough will swing through the area on Sunday,
bringing a better chance of rain to the area. This system appears
to be rather weak with the surface low remaining well to our north
and only a weak surface pressure gradient setting up over the
area. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with cold air
advection setting up by late Sunday morning, limiting
precipitation production. Cooler air will move in behind the
trough, which will drop high temperatures back into the upper 50s
to around 60.

From mlk day onward, a high amplitude pattern will develop with
strong ridging along the west coast and a deep trough in the
center of the continent. This will keep the area dry for several
days, with temperatures gradually warming under the ridge, with
highs in the low to mid 60s likely by mid week. Models are in good
agreement about the ridge becoming anchored to the coast through
at least the end of next week.

Aviation As of 09:31 am pst Thursday... For 18z tafs. Showers
continue to push across the terminals this morning. Expect a
gradual clearing of showers from W to E through 20zish. Will keep
some lingering vcsh possible with some cigs. Winds will remain on
the breezy to gusty through early this afternoon. Do expect winds
to diminish by this evening and overnight. Low conf on cigs
tonight with lingering low level moisture. Another chance for
precip will be possible early Friday morning, especially sts and
maybe oak sfo.

Vicinity of ksfo... Sw winds 15-20kt with gusts 25+kt possible
through about 20z. Winds will likely diminish thereafter,
especially this evening. Decided to add a prob30 for showers
tomorrow with a weak system passing to the north.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to sfo.

Monterey bay terminals... Lingering showers possible through
19-20z. CIGS will linger behind showers. Winds will breezy through
this afternoon.

Beaches As of 09:39 am pst Thursday... A large and long period
westerly swell is arriving with buoys already showing 16-18 sec at
25-28 feet. Breaking waves of 25 to 35 feet, favored locations up
to or exceeding 45 feet. Thus, a high surf warning remains in
effect through Friday. These large breaking waves will lead to
increased wave run- up on beaches with waves topping and washing
over large rocks and jetties. These conditions may also produce
localized coastal flooding of vulnerable locations, especially
early this morning during high tide. Use extreme caution near the
surf zone as these large waves will be capable of sweeping people
into the frigid and turbulent ocean water. Cold water shock may
cause cardiac arrest, and it also can cause an involuntary gasp
reflex causing drowning, even for a good swimmer. The surf zone
will be very dangerous due to strong currents and powerful
breaking waves. The large swell is forecast to gradually subside
on Friday.

Marine As of 08:38 am pst Thursday... Winds will continue to
gradually diminish through the day. However, the sea state will
be hazardous with a very large and long period west swell. This
swell will build through the day and persist into Friday. This
incoming swell will prolong the hazardous sea conditions
throughout the waters, particularly for small vessels.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday High surf warning... Caz006-505-509-529-530
sca... Mry bay
sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm
sca... Pt reyes to pigeon pt 0-10 nm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm
sca... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm
sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt piedras blancas 10-60 nm
sca... Rough bar advisory for sf bar
public forecast: drp st
aviation: mm
marine: mm
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 12 mi31 min SW 15 G 44 58°F 1018.2 hPa54°F
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 14 mi82 min S 5.1 57°F 1017 hPa50°F
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 15 mi37 min 56°F4 ft
MEYC1 17 mi91 min 57°F1016.4 hPa
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 20 mi37 min 57°F14 ft
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 21 mi77 min W 16 G 23 55°F 56°F11 ft1015.9 hPa (+2.8)
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 34 mi37 min 57°F11 ft
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 48 mi37 min SE 4.1 G 7 56°F 53°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA14 mi14 minW 122.00 miRain Fog/Mist52°F51°F97%1018.7 hPa
Monterey Regional Airport, CA19 mi13 minSW 14 G 204.00 miLight Rain59°F52°F78%1019.7 hPa
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA24 mi14 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast59°F48°F69%1018.9 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Santa Cruz, Monterey Bay, California (sub)
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
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Thu -- 02:36 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:33 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:38 AM PST     0.52 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:18 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:31 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:50 AM PST     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:07 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:17 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:53 PM PST     0.68 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:13 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.50.40.2-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.300.40.60.70.60.40.1-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.