Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Las Lomas, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:56PM Sunday November 18, 2018 9:00 AM PST (17:00 UTC) Moonrise 2:45PMMoonset 1:57AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 528 Am Pst Sun Nov 18 2018
Today..NE winds up to 10 kt...becoming W this afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds. Hazy and patchy smoke.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Hazy and patchy smoke.
Mon..W winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds and sw up to 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves around 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds and sw up to 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell around 2 ft at 16 seconds and S up to 2 ft at 15 seconds. A chance of rain.
Wed..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Showers.
Thanksgiving day..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 8 ft. Showers likely.
PZZ500 528 Am Pst Sun Nov 18 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Generally light winds will continue across the coastal waters through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Southerly winds will increase by the middle of the week as a storm system approaches. Mixed moderate northwest swell and light southerly swell will persist before a longer period northwest swell arrives mid-week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Las Lomas, CA
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location: 36.86, -121.76     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 181210
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
410 am pst Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis Dry, stagnant, hazy, smokey, and mild conditions will
continue to prevail across the region through Monday, as high
pressure remains over the region. A shallow marine layer will be
more widespread along the coast each night, bringing coastal fog
and potentially exacerbating the poor air quality. The overall
pattern will begin to transition on Tuesday, with periods of rain
and unsettled weather possible late Tuesday night into the
weekend, as several pacific storms take aim at northern
california.

Discussion As of 4:00 am pst Sunday... Short term impacts
continue to be focused on ongoing smoke haze. Longer term impacts
will be the much anticipated pattern change and rainfall.

A highly amplified ridge of high pressure remains parked over the
pac NW norcal. The ridge is on track to slowly drift eastward as
an upstream upper low pressure moves closer to the coast. So what
does that mean for the bay area over the next 24 to 36 hours? Only
minor day to day changes in the sensible weather. Latest satellite
imagery shows patchy low clouds developing over the inland valleys
and along the coast. There is also a shield of high clouds
covering most areas south of santa cruz. Did make adjusts to the
morning forecast and removed mentioned of widespread dense fog.

However, patchy dense fog will be possible at places like santa
rosa. Coastal locations from half moon bay southward into
monterey salinas valley will see more patchy fog. Additionally,
air quality sensors and other visibility sensors continue to show
lingering smoke haze across most of the region. Current forecast
will keep smoke haze today into Monday. Latest hrrr smoke model
does show some minor improvement today given a subtle wind shift
near the surface, but widespread improvement is not expected until
later in the week. Therefore, the public should continue to heed
advice from local air districts regarding smoke and it's impacts.

Speaking of later in the week, the much anticipated and advertised
pattern change looks like it will actually happen. Model guidance
had been advertising a pattern shift near the middle of the month
for some time now. The details were always in question, but as the
shift is getting closer the details are being ironed out. The
aforementioned upper low will track eastward and undercut the
ridge Monday into Tuesday and ultimately moving into socal. This
upper low will be the initial breakdown of the ridge opening the
storm door. Model guidance is now honing in on a robust frontal
boundary Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain will first develop
over then north bay late Tuesday night and then rapidly spread
across the bay area Wednesday morning. It's possible this could be
a ncfr (narrow cold frontal rainband) given the instability being
advertised by the NAM and gfs. If it pans out that way convection
could be possible, but more importantly ncfrs can produce periods
of intense rain impacting the Wednesday morning commute. Given
that it's still a few days out, will leave out any mention of
thunder, but it may be needed later. In addition to the possible
heavy rain, winds will increase rapidly out of the south. Gusts of
30 to 40 mph will be possible late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The front pushes through Wednesday and a transition to more
showers seems likely. As for thanksgiving, lingering showers will
be possible early in the day with some possible clearing in the
afternoon. However, another system is forecast to bring more rain
thanksgiving night into Friday. Initially, the north bay and then
gradually spreading southward. Some drying will be possible over
the weekend for southern areas, but lingering showers will be
possible over the north bay.

Simply put, the storm opens mid-week bringing unsettled weather
and improved air quality.

Aviation As of 03:44 am pst Sunday... For 12z tafs. Smoke and
haze will continue to be an issue today, although the recent run
of the hrrr smoke model forecast does show some improvement by
tonight. Generally expecting MVFR, with isolated ifr, vis during
the day due to smoke. Slant range vis issues are also expected to
persist. In addition to smoke this morning, satellite imagery
shows patches of stratus across the region with fog being reported
in the north bay and along parts of the coast. Stratus fog
expected to clear by late this morning. Generally light winds
through the period.

Vicinity of ksfo... Patch of stratus has developed over the
southern san francisco bay resulting in MVFR CIGS at ksfo. Vis
has improved to above 6sm for now, but hrrr smoke model suggests
worsening vis by late this morning before some possible
improvement this evening. Overall, expecting MVFR ifr vis to
return at some point before the afternoon. Guidance has stratus
clearing from the terminal around 18z-19z, but confidence is low.

Winds will remain light once again.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals... MVFR ifr CIGS through around 16z-18z with
possible lifr conditions due to patchy fog. MVFR vis will likely
persist due to wildfire smoke. Winds will remain light.

Marine As of 02:20 am pst Sunday... Generally light winds will
continue across the coastal waters through the rest of the weekend
and into early next week. Southerly winds will increase by the
middle of the week as a storm system approaches. Mixed moderate
northwest swell and light southerly swell will persist before a
longer period northwest swell arrives mid-week.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday None.

Public forecast: mm
aviation: as
marine: as
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 3 mi76 min E 1.9 46°F 1019 hPa45°F
46092 - MBM1 16 mi52 min NNE 12 52°F 57°F1019.1 hPa (+0.6)
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 18 mi40 min 59°F2 ft
MEYC1 19 mi85 min 60°F1019.8 hPa
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 33 mi31 min 61°F5 ft
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 34 mi71 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 61°F4 ft1018.2 hPa (+0.0)
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 40 mi31 min 62°F5 ft

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA6 mi68 minN 00.50 miFog44°F44°F100%1020.1 hPa
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA16 mi68 minE 32.50 miFog/Mist45°F42°F90%1020.8 hPa
Hollister, CA, CA19 mi66 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%1020.3 hPa
Monterey Regional Airport, CA19 mi67 minENE 43.00 miHaze Smoke50°F45°F83%1020.9 hPa

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS5CalmS7SW6W7SW5SW3CalmNW3N4NW3N5NW4NW3NW4CalmNE3CalmE4CalmN3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmS5CalmSW6SW7SW7SW5S4N3N3N3NW3CalmN4N3CalmCalmN5N5CalmN3CalmN3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3SE3SE3S3W3CalmCalmN3NW3NW3NW3NW4CalmNW4NW4CalmN3CalmW4W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Elkhorn Slough railroad bridge, Monterery Bay, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:57 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:34 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:37 AM PST     0.57 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:44 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:27 AM PST     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:45 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:23 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:56 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:07 PM PST     0.47 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:01 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:38 PM PST     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.3-0.20.10.40.50.60.50.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.40.50.40.30-0.3-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.