Wednesday, April26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Adak, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 6:57PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 7:53 PM HST (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:05AMMoonset 6:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AK
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location: 36.88, -180     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 260035
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
435 pm akdt Tue apr 25 2017

Analysis and upper levels
The overall upper level pattern over the state has changed little
since yesterday with the stacked low near the central aleutians
and troughs extending out of this large low into the interior of
the state and over the gulf of alaska. Weak ridging aloft extends
into the copper river basin from the ridge that is over british
columbia. A series of weak upper level waves are traveling through
the gulf of alaska and this should be the case the next few days.

The jet stream is far to the south and not feeding any significant
upper level support into the surface low that is just a little
northeast of adak.

There is a little bit of upper level support feeding into a low
that is west of vancouver island. This low will move into the
eastern gulf of alaska and help keep the southeasterly flow over
the gulf of alaska the next few days.

Model discussion
Models are doing better today than yesterday... Especially in the
gulf of alaska. The model solutions all show the main low going
into the eastern gulf of alaska with a trough trailing westward
across the rest of the gulf. Yesterday's models had a more
balanced strength of the lows with the GFS (wrongly) consolidating
all the energy halfway between the centers. Today the gfs, NAM and
the rest of the bunch all have the eastern low solution and only
differ with the timing of some of the upper level waves moving
across the northern gulf from the southeast. NAM was the preferred
model for these features.

In the bering sea, the models all keep the low in the central
aleutians nearly stationary through Wednesday before moving it
eastward Wednesday night through Friday.

The GFS model was preferred with the track that moves to low just
north of the aleutians/alaska peninsula before dissipating it

There is also a significant difference in the track and strength
of a low moving into the western bering sea Thursday night and
Friday with the ECMWF stronger and farther southeast than any
other model. This will need to be watched over the next few model
runs to see if a common solution appears. At this time the strong
front associated with the low will be the main weather feature
for that area and models are all fairly close with their track so
current forecasts should not be too far off despite the model

Panc...VFR conditions should prevail over the airport through
Wednesday. Wind direction is the most challenging aspect for the
panc TAF due to the presence of the turnagain arm wind blowing
just south of the airport. This wind is expected to remain south
of panc but could turn it southeast during the next two afternoons
and evenings. Even if it does wind speeds are expected to remain
under 10 kt. Winds should revert to light northerly overnight.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A few rain showers have been seen across interior portions of
southcentral alaska but places in the matanuska valley and the
anchorage bowl have seen very little in rainfall as downslope
winds continue to the keep the low levels dry. Rainfall looks to
continue along the northern gulf coast through tomorrow morning
as a frontal boundary continues to slowly dissipate over the
northern gulf. Gusty winds through turnagain arm, the knik river
valley and the copper river will continue through late this
evening before decoupling as the atmosphere stabilizes. This
should be an end to the gusty winds as the pressure gradient
begins to relax with the frontal boundary in the gulf on it's way
out. Cloudy skies will continue to be the norm on Wednesday but
guidance is hinting at clouds breaking a little bit by late this
week. As the clouds break, temperatures are expected to warm into
the 50s for a good chunk of southcentral alaska by late this week.

It isn't out of the question that a few convective showers could
be seen toward higher elevations by Friday with colder air now in
place in the upper levels (see change in the freezing level and
-20 degrees c line on the panc soundings from yesterday and today)
but we are still a bit out from any thunderstorm activity.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Low pressure across the southern bering will send several short
waves across the southwest through Friday. This persistent pattern
brings higher chances for precipitation through the end of the
week along with continued southerly flow.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The low pressure system over the southern bering weakens into an
open wave on Thursday and lifts slowly north. The next front
moves into the western bering Thursday night. Gale winds are
expected along the front which slowly moves to the central bering
and aleutians Friday afternoon.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long-term forecast (weekend and early next week) looks like a
continuation of the rather cloudy pattern that has spread across
much of mainland alaska. The current stationary low in the central
bering will weaken and move to the southeast over the next few
days, but by the weekend it will be replaced by a renewed low
pressure system moving through the bering and parking near the
akpen or kodiak island. The models have been struggling with where
this 2nd low will set up shop... And the final position will be the
difference between continued cloudy with occasional showers at
inland locations, or thick clouds with steady rain for many areas.

For now, the more showery solution is preferred, as it shows a bit
more run-to-run consistency and also is supported heavily by
climatology. This should mean near or slightly above normal
temperatures continuing over southcentral alaska, and above-normal
over southwest alaska.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Mc
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Kh
long term... Ad

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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

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Wind Forecast for (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kauai, HI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.