Sunday, May26, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Adak, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 7:09PM Sunday May 26, 2019 12:02 PM HST (22:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:54AMMoonset 11:53AM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AK
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location: 36.88, -180     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 261248
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
448 am akdt Sun may 26 2019

Analysis and upper levels
Satellite imagery tells a very simple story across southern
alaska this morning: a trough with a deep southerly subtropical
flow tapping 35n is dominating the regional weather. The
"firehose" is currently being directed at southcentral with
widespread areas of rain impacting most of the region. The surface
warm front has stalled along the north gulf coast with only
moderate strength gap winds (favoring turnagain arm). Over the
bering sea, a surface cyclone (around 994 mb) with 20-30 knot
winds around it represents the "anchor" of the overall larger
scale trough. As we head through the remainder of the memorial
weekend, the current trough with deep southerly flow will remain
dominant as periods of rain move inland.

Model discussion
The numerical models remain in very good agreement with minimal
deviation in the overall pattern through late next week as the
bering npac trough remains in place. The memorial weekend rain-
fest remains on track with cooler and showery weather remaining
into next week. This forecaster would love a large upper ridge to
develop over alaska, but it remains elusive (and will for the time
being) thus far this spring. For this forecast a model blend was
utilized, with hi-res NAM nest being used early for gap winds.

Forecast confidence is high.

Panc... Rain will increase by late morning and afternoon, with cigs
dropping to MVFR at times. Rain will taper off in the late evening
in conjunction with developing gusty SE turnagain arm winds moving
through the terminal.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3 Sunday
through Tuesday)...

deep and moist southerly flow aloft extends north from 40n to over
southcentral alaska. This is supporting a broad surface front and
producing widespread rain over much of southcentral. The brunt of
the rain should remain south and west of the copper river basin.

Rain will start to tapper off overnight as the moisture feed is
shunted to the east as the upper trough and surface front lift
north across the mainland. Monday and Tuesday then will be
dominated by showers and a little sunshine in spots.

Brisk gap winds across turnagain arm, out of the knik river
valley, and along the copper river are expected to continue
through today and then weaken overnight. Although weaker, these
gap winds will continue redevelop Monday,
.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3: today
through Tuesday)...

a series of upper level disturbances will move across southwest
alaska through memorial day. The first is currently over the
lower kuskokwim valley. It will dissipate later this morning. A
second stronger disturbance moves into southwest alaska this
afternoon. It will track northwestward, so bristol bay will be the
first to start getting rain, which will intensify late this
afternoon and evening, resulting in steady rains away from the
alaska range. The disturbance will weaken tonight as it moves
across the kuskokwim delta, and will stall out along the coast
from nunivak island north Monday morning.

Most areas will dry out a bit behind this wave, though the east-
facing slopes of the kuskokwim mountains should continue to get
steadier rains. Scattered showers may redevelop memorial day
afternoon, which will dissipate Monday night. Tuesday will be the
driest day of the group for most areas, with a new low approaching
from the south on Wednesday.

Breezy conditions will also be common over much of the area, with
the windiest readings expected on memorial day. The winds will be
nearly uniformly out of the southeast through Tuesday.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3: today
through Tuesday)...

a low currently over the central bering near the pribilofs will
be the main weather maker across the area through Tuesday. The low
will be gradually drifting south between now and Tuesday. Since
the winds around the low will not be particularly strong anywhere,
the slow movement and weak strength of the low should support a
continuation of much of the same weather we are seeing now. This
means nearly overcast skies, breezy conditions, and cool
temperatures. Only isolated areas of small craft winds are
expected anywhere through Tuesday. A stronger front wrapping
around the north side of the low will make for a better chance of
small craft conditions along the alaska peninsula Tuesday night.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
In general gale force winds are not expected as a large but slow
moving low sets up along and south of the eastern aleutians.

However, there remains a chance that winds could reach gale force
from the western gulf westward to about the pribilofs on Tuesday
night and Wednesday as a low moves towards the alaska peninsula.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
On Wednesday the upper level pattern will consist of of low
centered south of the alaska peninsula and eastern aleutians, with
an upper level high over central and northern mainland alaska.

Through Friday the location of the upper low will change very
little, just drifting slightly northeast. However, the high will
retreat a little northward, allowing progressively more cyclonic
flow over southern alaska as a troughiness nudges northward.

Although there are model differences in the timing of individual
short-waves moving around the low and through, the forecast
confidence is above normal due to the stability of the pattern.

This will generally mean chances of rain and showers across the
area and the through next week with temperatures near normal.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ahsenmacher
southcentral alaska... Rmc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jw
marine long term... Bl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kauai, HI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.