Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Adak, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 6:55PM Sunday April 22, 2018 11:32 PM HST (09:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:21AMMoonset 12:56AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AK
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location: 36.88, -180     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 230044
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
444 pm akdt Sun apr 22 2018

Analysis and upper levels
Upper lows over the eastern bering sea and western aleutians and
a strong zonal jet south of the western aleutians are the main
upper level features. At the surface, series of lows were evident
from the eastern bering sea to south of the alaska peninsula. A
970s low and its associated frontal system over the western bering
sea produced widespread rain and east-southeast gales across the
aleutians and western bering. A weakening frontal system along
with showers extended across southwest alaska. Cold advection on
the back side of the eastern bering low produced widespread snow
showers across the eastern bering sea and pribilof islands. A
secondary gale force front over the northern gulf was moving
rapidly north. Rain associated with this feature was fairly
widespread along the coast coast. Downslope drying, due to
easterly flow across the chugach mountains, mitigated
precipitation inland.

Model discussion
Models are reasonable and in good synoptic agreement. The GFS was
used overall out west. The namnest was used across southcentral
to better capture mesoscale affects.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will continue. Ceilings will likely lower
a bit during the day Monday as upper level flow shifts to south-
southwest, but low level southeasterly flow will keep them in
theVFR category. The turnagain wind will bend into the airport
tomorrow afternoon and strengthen into the evening hours. In fact,
with pressure gradients rapidly tightening ahead of the next
system, the southeasterly winds may just continue to strengthen
all the way through Tuesday afternoon.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Even as the gale force front slowly weakens as it makes landfall
over the north gulf coast this evening, an active weather pattern
for the gulf and the south mainland looks to continue into mid-
week. This first front will bring continued rain to much of the
north gulf coast and prince william sound into Monday before
slowly dissipating, while gusty winds through turnagain arm and
down cook inlet will diminish this evening. This will only provide
a brief respite in gusty winds along turnagain arm however as
these winds will begin to increase again during the afternoon.

This will occur as a developing trough of low pressure moves up
the west coast, providing a strong pressure gradient along the
chugach that will strengthen into Tuesday. This will bring strong
winds not only through turnagain arm, but also through the knik
and copper river valleys. Gusty southeasterly winds also look to
develop in the anchorage bowl and matanuska valley for Tuesday as
the down inlet flow weakens. There is also a chance this gradient
will be strong enough to bring warning level gusts through
turnagain arm on Tuesday, which will need to continue to be
monitored as new model runs come in. Another change in this next
system will be for a greater risk of precipitation (mostly in the
form of rain) into interior southcentral as the flow shifts to
southwesterly and conditions become more convective late Tuesday.

If enough cold air moves into the lower elevations of the northern-
western susitna valley, there could also be accumulating snow,
which could be significant as temperatures cool during the evening.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The remnants of the arctic trough will eject negatively tilted
energy towards kuskokwim bay and bristol bay. The radar for king
salmon has been pretty active this afternoon with showers near
pilot point, egegik and dillingham. More precipitation is
anticipated tonight as that short-wave lifts northward. There
will be a very short break between storms, then the next bering
system will be at the doorstep of western and southwest alaska.

This storm will bring moderate to heavy rain along the coast.

Additional impacts include a fetch of southeast winds across
bristol bay and hooper bay resulting in enhanced waves and
potentially rough surf on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
At the onset of the forecast period there is a closed low over
the eastern bering and a second closed low near attu island. The
models continue to advertise gale force winds and rough seas for
much of the bering due to these features. The remnants of the
arctic trough eastern bering disturbance will eject negatively
tilted energy toward southwest alaska tonight. Looking upstream,
the occluded system continues to march across the western and
central aleutians. The surface low anchoring the occlusion will
push eastward on the bering side of the aleutians and then curve
northeastward late Tuesday. All the models imply that the gale
force winds are really associated with the cold sector of this
second system. In the wake of this frontal passage, the models
are currently building a ridge over the western aleutians.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long range forecast beginning Tuesday night will be in an
active pattern as a broad bering low spins multiple shortwaves
around its perimeter which spans across the state and surrounding
waters. Onshore flow supplies abundant moisture for showers to
develop with the embedded shortwaves as they move around the low
center which brings higher precipitation chances for the southern
mainland through mid week.

Late Thursday, the bering low is kicked eastward as the next low
races up from the north pacific to the western bering. Models are
in good agreement on the timing of this storm reaching the
central aleutians early Friday morning; however, they diverge on
the timing and track of the system thereafter. The main challenge
for models is resolving a ridge that builds into the southern
gulf ahead of the next approaching low. The ECMWF had the best
run to run consistency and also had good continuity between its
operational and ensemble solutions for the extended range
forecasts. Overall, only minor updates were made for second half
of the forecast as there is low confidence concerning the track
of the bering low.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 119 130 150 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178
185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bc
southcentral alaska... Dek
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ps
long term... Dk


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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kauai, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.