Sunday, November18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Adak, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:50PM Sunday November 18, 2018 7:24 AM HST (17:24 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 1:59AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AK
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location: 36.88, -180     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 181355
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
455 am akst Sun nov 18 2018

Analysis and upper levels
Most of the state this morning is dominated by a deep upper-level
longwave trough, which covers most of the bering and mainland
alaska and extends well south of the aleutian island chain. The
trough is supported by a strong jet stream which dives south
across the western aleutians and turns north over the northern
pacific into the gulf of alaska. The eastern portion of the jet is
pumping warm and moist air north into mainland alaska with most
locations seeing temperatures above the freezing mark, though the
copper river basin is still holding on to surface temps in the
teens. A long plume of moisture is seen on satellite extending
from the subtropics north into southern alaska. Radar shows
precipitation associated with the feature moving north up the cook
inlet and the prince william sound, falling mostly as rain at the
surface. Showery precipitation is also seen over the southwest
mainland tonight as a weak front pushes north. Some locations in
the lower kuskokwim river valley and kuskokwim delta are at or
below the freezing mark, leading to pockets of freezing rain as
mid-level temperatures are mostly above freezing.

Model discussion
Model agreement has improved since the previous forecast package,
now mostly locking onto the major synoptic level features showing
the upper level trough migrating east over time as a ridge over
the bering builds in behind it. There is some disagreement during
the day on Sunday regarding the spatial coverage of precipitation
over southcentral as the next shortwave trough pushes into the
area. The NAM and canadian both show a more pronounced dry slot on
the lee of the kenai and chugach mountains while the GFS ec have
more uniform coverage of precipitation. Leaned more towards the
wetter solution with weaker cross barrier flow and strong
southerly flow.

Panc... Rain will continue to spread over the terminal this morning
though CIGS and vis should stayVFR as weak downsloping will
prevent lower ceilings from developing. At the same time, the
stronger southeasterly winds aloft will lead to periods of low
level wind shear through the early afternoon as surface winds
should stay out of the NW to NE at the terminal.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
Broad moist southerly flow continues aloft across much of
southcentral through today before becoming somewhat more
negatively tilted tonight. Strong low level cross-barrier flow
will be overwhelmed by the southerly moisture fetch allowing
moisture to spread across typically downsloped areas of the
anchorage bowl and mat-su today. The flow becomes more
southeasterly aloft tonight and Monday, so precipitation in these
areas should lessen. Generally the brunt of precipitation in the
form of rain should continue along the coasts. Generally high
freezing levels (over 4000 ft on anchorage's morning sounding)
and warm temps should keep most of the precipitation in the form
of rain across the kenai peninsula, anchorage bowl, and lower
elevations of the mat- su through Monday. Precipitation types will
be more problematic over the copper river basin as low level cold
air will likely hold in place and potentially produce mixed
precipitation types. The good news at this point is that much of
the QPF will be confined to the southeast copper basin and should
not be very widespread. Will take another look on the next model
run, especially with for tonight and Monday with the next frontal
trough heading north tonight.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
(tonight through Monday)
a mix of precipitation types continue to fall across most of the
lower kuskokwim river and nearby valleys, also for locations north
of the river through the delta region. Area web cams did show ice
accumulations today for these areas, and given little change in
the pattern through midday expected, left the advisory going
through noon. South of these locations, look for scattered showers
to persist, with some freezing rain remaining possible for some of
the interior valleys north of the nushagak hills, as low-level
cold air remains in place.

Heading into the evening and tomorrow, the mid-level and surface
lows that have anchored the northern bering, keeping a southeast
to southwest flow across the region, will begin to weaken as it
gets "kicked" eastward by short-wave energy diving into the
northern bering from siberia. Meanwhile, a lead vort MAX will dive
into the base of the trough that has been in place from the
northern bering towards bristol bay by evening, causing surface
cyclogenesis (the development of low pressure) near kodiak island.

Both the mid and surface level reflections will then move north
from kodiak towards the northern cook inlet. This results in a
shift to a westerly wind direction, with colder and drier air
advecting (to advect is the horizontal movement of an airmass)
into southwest alaska. Although this will cause a gradual decrease
in precipitation coverage by Monday, the cooling temperatures
will allow for some increase in wintry precipitation, although
amounts look to be light at this time.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
(tonight through Monday)
as a persistent northern bering low moves east through the day
into western alaska, short-wave transient ridging will build from
western portions of the bering aleutians this morning, to the
central bering aleutians by Monday morning while weakening.

However, with this ridge flattening through time, given the lack
of significant height rises, showery type precipitation will
likely continue with just some decrease in coverage compared to

Our attention then turns to the next disturbance diving southeast
from eastern siberia towards bristol bay. This system will send a
weak surface reflection of a front eastward, with sustained winds
briefly increasing to gales, with an uptick in precipitation
coverage and amounts expected. This front will then weaken by
later Monday afternoon evening, as the energy is absorbed by a
new low forming near kodiak island.

.Long term forecast (days 3 through 7 Tuesday night through

some change for the positive today in the long term, in that
models are finally showing a decent picture of what might happen
next week. Going with a gfs ECMWF solution for the long term as
those have been consistent enough the past few days to put some
trust in them. Both show troughing over southcentral ak through
Wednesday and ridging over the western and central aleutians
through the middle of the week.

As with yesterday, ridging slowly works its way across the
aleutians, to be over SW ak on Friday. This was similar to
yesterday's solution, so am able to put some stock in it. This
means a general cooling trend and finally perhaps some clearing of
weather later next week for southcentral and SW ak, as the ridge
will bring in some cool, dry air from the north. Confidence still
needs to grow with the above. With the way models have been
handling the weather lately, need to see this same solution for
another day or two to really buy it. The western aleutians are
also a wash after the middle of next week, with models varying
widely with the track of the next low after ridging moves east out
of the area midweek.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory... 152.

Marine... Gales 119 125 130 131 132 170 171 172 176 177.

Synopsis and model discussion... Kvp
southcentral alaska... Rc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pd
long term... Bb

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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