Monday, October22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Portsmouth, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:20PM Monday October 22, 2018 3:17 AM EDT (07:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:40PMMoonset 4:02AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 1256 Am Edt Mon Oct 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt early this morning...
Rest of tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1256 Am Edt Mon Oct 22 2018
Rest of tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt late in the morning, then becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds, subsiding to 2 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds late.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds, subsiding to 2 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds late.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Portsmouth, VA
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location: 36.929, -76.345     debug


7 Day Forecast for Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.834, -75.409     


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 220641
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
241 am edt Mon oct 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the local area today, will move off the mid
atlantic coast tonight and Tuesday. A weak cold front will move
across the area Tuesday night. Low pressure approaches from the
south by the weekend.

Near term through today
As of 240 am Monday...

it is the coldest morning of the season so far with a 1026 mb high
parked over the va piedmont. This has allowed winds to decouple
resulting in MAX radiational cooling. Temps AOB freezing west of ric
with widespread mid 30s west of the ches bay. Frost freeze headlines
continue thru 12z and expect to be end the program for many of the
western zones later today.

Otw, a sunny day ahead. The cold start will end with a milder finish
as the winds turn ssw this afternoon. Highs upr 50s-lwr 60s.

Short term tonight through Thursday
As of 240 am edt Monday...

clear and not as cold tonight due to the light ssw wind. Lows in the
40s to near 50 sern beaches.

Return flow arnd the offshore ridge allows h85 temps to rise tue.

The upper trof amplifies over new england allowing a dry cold front
to drop south across the local area after 21z. Upshot will be a
mstly sunny and warm day. Highs in the upr 60s to lwr 70s.

Mstly clr Tue night as winds shift to the nw. Lows in the 40s to nr
50 sern coastal areas. The next canadian high builds into the area
from the NW wed. Mstly sunny and cooler. Highs in the upr 50s to lwr
60s. Mstly clr and chilly Wed night. Lows mid 30s to mid 40s. Sunny
to start thurs with more clouds in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
As of 240 am edt Monday...

despite different tracks and some minor timing differences, the
canadian ECMWF and GFS are coming together and pointing to a rather
wet and unsettled weekend ahead due a potent southern stream low.

What the models show, is that the energy from the initial low gets
its origins from moisture crossing mexico mid week, the gulf coastal
states late week then deepening as it turns north along the eastern
seaboard this weekend. All bring a decent amount of moisture with it
from the south. What is yet to be determined is the extent a S w
diving SE in the northern jet will play in the storms deepening over
the weekend.

Thus, went ahead and adjusted the grids starting fri. Main change was
to increase cloud coverage to mstly cldy cldy given a synoptic system
and increased pops to high chc low end likely across the east Fri night
and Sat as the low makes its closest approach. Data also pointing to a
possible in-situ wedge across the piedmont resulting in a cold rain sat
morning. A more inland track would suggest the sern coastal areas get
into a possible warm sector. This low will also has major marine concerns
as well. Stay tuned as this system unfolds this week. Temps remain below
normal thru the period.

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
As of 130 am edt Monday...

vfr conditions with little if any cloud coverage expected through
the forecast period as high pressure moves over the region. Light
north winds this morning become ssw below 10 kts this afternoon.

Outlook...

a dry cold front moves across the area tues night shifting winds back
to the nnw again wed. High pressure builds back into the area from the
west through Thursday. Low pressure approaches from the ssw late fri.

Marine
As of 930 pm edt Sunday...

while winds have diminished considerably over the rivers currituck
sound, N NW winds are still gusting to ~30 knots at some of the
elevated sites across the chesapeake bay atlantic ocean late this
evening. Seas have fallen to 3-6 feet over the ocean, with 2-4 ft
waves on the bay as of 9 pm. Expect winds (and seas) to fall below
sca thresholds on the bay ocean by late tonight as sfc high pressure
continues to build eastward. Winds become SW during the day on
Monday and will stay below SCA thresholds through Monday night. A
weak cold front approaches the region during the day on Tuesday and
crosses the waters Tuesday night. This front may bring sca
conditions in the form of NW winds of 15 to 25 knots Tuesday night
into Wednesday. High pressure likely builds back into the area
allowing for light N NE flow through the end of the work week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for ncz012-013-030.

Va... Freeze warning until 8 am edt this morning for vaz048-062-064-
509>511.

Frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for vaz060-061-
065>069-075-076-079>083-087-088-092-512>522.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt early this morning for
anz630>632-634-656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Mpr mrd
aviation... Mpr
marine... Jao


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 1 mi36 min 65°F1025.2 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 3 mi30 min N 9.9 G 13 47°F 1025 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 4 mi36 min NNW 8.9 G 11 46°F 1024.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 5 mi36 min N 2.9 G 6 46°F 1025.7 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 11 mi36 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 46°F 68°F1025 hPa
44087 12 mi18 min 67°F3 ft
44064 14 mi28 min N 12 G 18 51°F 1024.8 hPa
CHBV2 16 mi36 min N 11 G 17 51°F 1023.8 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 18 mi30 min NNE 13 G 17 51°F 1023.2 hPa
44072 19 mi28 min N 14 G 19 49°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi30 min N 15 G 18 47°F 1025.6 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 22 mi30 min N 7 G 9.9 44°F 66°F1025.1 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 25 mi36 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 61°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 33 mi18 min 70°F4 ft
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 39 mi48 min NNW 4.1 45°F 1026 hPa36°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 59 mi30 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 42°F 55°F1025.1 hPa
44014 - VIRGINIA BEACH 64 NM East of Virginia Beach, VA 83 mi28 min NNW 16 G 19 55°F 66°F6 ft1024.1 hPa (+0.3)40°F

Wind History for South Craney Island, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G16
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G12
SW7
G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA3 mi79 minNNW 710.00 miFair46°F36°F68%1025.6 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA8 mi27 minN 710.00 miFair49°F35°F59%1025 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA11 mi82 minNW 610.00 miFair41°F34°F77%1026.1 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA17 mi24 minNNW 310.00 miFair38°F35°F89%1025.5 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA18 mi22 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds43°F36°F76%1024.9 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA19 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair34°F31°F93%1025.7 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA21 mi82 minNNE 510.00 miFair44°F33°F66%1025 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair37°F35°F95%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW19
G25
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G35
NW23
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G35
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G33
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NW24
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NW17NW16
G28
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NW18NW16
G21
N15N9N10N13
G22
N13NW17N8N9N7N9
1 day agoS9
G15
SW6S7SW7SW8SW8SW9SW10W8
G17
SW9SW11SW12W8SW9SW8SW5W6SW5SW6SW7W10
G17
W12
G18
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G27
N20
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS4SE4S53S65S7SW8SW5S6S5S8S9
G20
S11
G19
SW10
G18
S9SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Sewells Point, Hampton Roads, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:22 AM EDT     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.77 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:52 PM EDT     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.40.20.60.80.70.50.2-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.2-1-0.6-0.10.50.80.80.60.3-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.