Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Portsmouth, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:29PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 10:30 AM EDT (14:30 UTC) Moonrise 11:14AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 957 Am Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Rest of today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Waves 1 foot. Isolated showers and tstms early this afternoon. Scattered showers and tstms late.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Scattered showers and tstms.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 957 Am Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Rest of today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Scattered showers and tstms.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the late morning and afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Portsmouth, VA
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location: 36.929, -76.345     debug


7 Day Forecast for Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.834, -75.409     


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 191109
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
709 am edt Tue jun 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered off the coast today. A frontal
boundary drops into the area tonight and Wednesday, then settles
near the virginia north carolina border Thursday. The front
drops farther south into the carolinas Friday as high pressure
builds over the new england coast.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am edt Tuesday...

the current surface analysis places high pressure
centered over the deep south, and a cold front is situated near the
ny pa border. Mostly clear, warm, and humid early this morning with
temperatures ranging through the 70s and dewpoints in the low mid
70s. Surface high pressure will weaken today with a lee-side trough
developing over the piedmont as the mid-level high remains centered
near the carolinas. Becoming hot and still humid later this morning
into early aftn. High temperatures in the mid 90s from central va
through SE va and NE nc combined with dewpoints in the low mid 70s
will result in heat indices of 105 to 108f. By later this aftn, the
mid-level ridge will breakdown as the aforementioned front drops
swd. Showers tstms are expected to develop in vicinity of lee-side
trough by mid-aftn, with this activity potentially organizing and
dropping SE into central and SE va later this aftn through evening.

Modest buoyancy along with increasing mid-level flow will result in
a marginal severe risk per SPC outlook, with the main threat being
damaging wind gusts. Highs today will be in the mid 90s, with upper
80s low 90s at the immediate coast. Lows tonight will mainly be in
the low mid 70s.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday
As of 400 am edt Tuesday...

the frontal boundary remains over the region Wednesday, with
another round of aftn evening showers tstms expected. Again, the
severe risk is marginal with damaging wind gusts the main
threats. Highs Wednesday will mainly be in the mid 80s to low
90s (upper 70s at the immediate atlantic coast of the md ern
shore). Lows Wednesday night will generally be in the low mid
70s. The front settles near the va nc border Thursday, with the
best chc of showers tstms shifting into SRN va NE nc. Highs
Thursday will be in the mid upper 80s (with upper 70s around 80f
for the immediate atlantic md coast).

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 350 pm edt Monday...

models show strong ridging aloft remains over the southeastern
us and gulf coast states Thursday evening with a trough exiting
the northeastern us while a closed low and trough are entrenched
over the central us. The ridge over the southeast and gulf
coast will remain entrenched for the extended period and the
central us trough will lift into the great lakes and
northeastern us before it begins to shear out. At the surface,
the models show a cold front sinking south through the area
Thursday night into Friday before washing out on Saturday. The
question is how far the front GOES as the GFS and ECMWF get the
front well into the carolinas. The models often struggle with
how far south the fronts get this time of the year. So have held
on to some pops in the southern portion of the CWA Thursday
night into Friday thinking the front will linger a little closer
than the models currently show. Once the front dissolves on
Saturday, the flow will return to a southerly direction as the
high to the NE retreats and the low pressure over the great
lakes heads toward SE canada. This will allow the warmer and
more humid air to return to the area. Temperatures will rebound
from the mid to upper 80s on Friday to upper 80s to near 90 on
Saturday. This day should have the better chance for afternoon
storms with the added forcing of the upper trough.

For Sunday into Monday will see a return of the heat and
humidity as the ridge over the SE us remains in place with the
models trying to break it down on Monday with a cold frontal
passage. Right now the models show a much more vigorous trough
over the great lakes and northeastern us which would suggest
that the front would go through and would like generate some
convection along the boundary. So have increased pops back to
chance levels on Monday after reducing values to slight chance
on Sunday. Temperatures each day should be in the low to mid
90s. But will have to see if this trend of the models persist or
if the ridging over the SE us maintains it hold on the weather
and the fronts continue to stall out near the va nc region.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 710 am edt Tuesday...

high pressure is centered over the southeast CONUS as of 11z,
with a trough swinging across the northeast. Mainly clear with a
few high clouds this morning with a SW wind of 5-8kt. Sct-bkn
cu of 5-7kft are expected to develop by this aftn, with sct
showers tstms developing and expanding in coverage from ric-sby
later in the aftn, then shifting toward phf orf by evening,
with a lesser chc at ecg. Any showers tstms have the potential
to produce brief MVFR or ifr conditions. The wind will become nw
5-8kt this aftn, with the potential for locally strong wind
gusts in tstms. Showers tstms should diminish in coverage and
intensity later tonight.

A weak cold front will settle over the area Wednesday with
another round of aftn evening showers tstms expected across the
region. The boundary shifts farther S by Thursday, with the best
potential for aftn evening showers tstms mainly over SRN SE va
and NE nc. Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday as high
pressure over coastal new england results in onshore flow. The
potential for aftn evening showers tstms returns Saturday.

Marine
As of 440 am edt Tuesday...

no headlines in the short term today thru Wed night. Winds will
become W then NW at 10 kt or less this morning, as a weak
boundary crosses the waters. A weakening cold front then sags
south over the waters late this aftn into Wed morning, turning
winds to the NE (but still less than 10 kt). The meandering
front slowly lifts back north late wed, with onshore flow
gradually becoming SE by late wed, then ssw Wed night. This
same front then drops back south across the waters on thu, with
nnw winds around 10 kt becoming NE then E late Thu aftn into fri
morning. E winds 10-15 kt later Fri morning into Fri evening. Waves
1-2 ft thru Thu night, with seas 2-3 ft.

Climate
As of 800 pm edt Monday...

hottest airmass of the season will continue tue. Record highs
(and record high mins) were not set today (mon). No record highs are
expected on Tue (record high mins may be close in some spots).

For reference, the record highs and record high mins for tue
6 19 are listed below:
* site record high record high min
* ric: 103 (1944) 74 (2015)
* orf: 101 (1944) 77 (2017)
* sby: 96 (1993) 74 (2017)
* ecg: 100 (1944) 78 (2017)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for ncz012>017-030>032.

Va... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for vaz079>083-087>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz
long term... Ess
aviation... Ajz
marine... Tmg
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 1 mi42 min 79°F
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 3 mi42 min W 5.1 G 8.9 87°F 1011.5 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 4 mi42 min W 8.9 G 9.9 83°F 1010.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 5 mi48 min NW 4.1 G 6 82°F 1011.8 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 11 mi42 min NW 5.1 G 7 87°F 82°F1011.3 hPa
44064 14 mi30 min W 9.7 G 9.7 81°F 78°F1 ft1011 hPa (-0.6)
CHBV2 16 mi48 min W 9.9 G 11 80°F 1010.4 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 18 mi42 min W 8.9 G 12
44072 19 mi30 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 82°F 79°F1 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi42 min W 11 G 11 84°F 1011.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 25 mi48 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 78°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 33 mi30 min 75°F2 ft
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 39 mi60 min W 1.9 92°F 1013 hPa83°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 59 mi42 min WSW 4.1 G 8
44014 - VIRGINIA BEACH 64 NM East of Virginia Beach, VA 83 mi40 min W 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 73°F3 ft1011.6 hPa (-0.8)74°F

Wind History for South Craney Island, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA3 mi91 minW 57.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F73°F72%1012.2 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA8 mi39 minVar 510.00 miFair90°F75°F62%1011.4 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA11 mi94 minW 88.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F74°F70%1012.5 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA17 mi36 minW 99.00 miFair88°F73°F61%1011.4 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA18 mi34 minWNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F71°F55%1011.3 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA19 mi55 minW 47.00 miFair87°F72°F62%1011.8 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA21 mi94 minWSW 610.00 miFair83°F74°F75%1011.5 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi55 minW 510.00 miFair87°F73°F65%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N7NW4N8NE7NE8E6E63CalmS4S6S4S3S4SW6SW5SW5SW6W7W7W7W5W6
1 day ago3NW6E4NE9E12E11E9SE7SE7SE5S4E4SW3CalmSW3SW4CalmCalmS4CalmS3CalmN5N7
2 days agoCalmNE6E7NE9NE8E7S11
G17
5S8SE5SE8S7S8S7S8SW7SW6S6SW6SW6SW5SW463

Tide / Current Tables for Sewells Point, Hampton Roads, Virginia
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Sewells Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:21 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:44 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:57 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:08 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.92.52.82.72.41.710.4-0-0.10.20.71.42.12.52.62.521.40.80.30.10.20.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:06 AM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:18 AM EDT     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:55 PM EDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.110.70.3-0.2-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.4-1-0.30.30.70.80.70.40.1-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.