Saturday, March23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Point Arena, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:25PM Saturday March 23, 2019 2:26 PM PDT (21:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:59PMMoonset 8:22AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Arena, CA
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location: 36.95, -126.32     debug

Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 232053
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
153 pm pdt Sat mar 23 2019

Synopsis An isolated shower or two will be possible this
afternoon over the higher terrain but otherwise dry conditions are
expected. Dry weather will continue through Sunday with
additional storm systems expected next week. These systems will
bring periods of rain and breezy conditions to the region.

Discussion As of 1:52 pm pdt Saturday... The pacific front has
exited the region, leaving partly cloudy skies and light to
occasionally breezy northwest winds in its wake. Precipitation has
ended almost everywhere but a stray shower or two has managed to
develop across the higher terrain south of the bay area. Hi-
resolution models show that these isolated showers will be
possible through the afternoon. All chance of precipitation should
end by sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures this
afternoon will be rather cool, averaging about 5 degrees below
normal for this time of year.

As skies clear overnight, temperatures will drop into the upper
30s in the inland valleys to the mid 40s near sf bay. Cannot rule
out patchy fog development in portions of the north bay valleys
overnight. High pressure and drier, southerly flow will allow
temperatures on Sunday to warm into the 60s (near normal) in most
locations. High clouds will be on the increase during the
afternoon as the next pacific trough begins to approach the area.

A cold front will move into the north bay on Sunday night,
bringing another round of steady rainfall. Southerly winds ahead
of the front will increase across all areas on Sunday night,
peaking Monday before the passage of the front. Wind gusts of
30-40 mph will be possible along the coast and in the higher
terrain, with 20-30 mph inland. Light rain will start to move
into the bay area by sunrise Monday, but models depict the front
to stall for several hours, keeping the majority of the rain in
the north bay through Monday morning. Models currently time the
front to push through the bay area on Monday afternoon and
through the remainder of the forecast area on Monday evening. The
front could bring a round of moderate rain as it passes through,
which may occur during the Monday evening commute. The front will
weaken as it propagates through our area, with only light rain
expected by the time the front reaches monterey county.

The remnants of the front will stall over southern portions of
the region on Tuesday. Moist southwest flow will continue and a
few showers will be possible. The next storm system will arrive on
Tuesday night, bringing rain to the entire area once again. After
the passage of a cold front on Wednesday morning, our area will
be located at the base of a trough Wednesday through Thursday
morning. Moist westerly flow will keep showers going through this
time frame. The trough will keep high temperatures 5-10 degrees
below normal. Overnight lows will be near to slightly above normal
due to abundant moisture and cloud cover.

Models start to diverge late in the period. The ECMWF is faster in
advancing the trough to the east, while the GFS forms a cutoff low
over the area on Friday. The GEFS ensemble mean is closer to the
ecmwf solution, and as such conditions are likely to dry by next
weekend with warming temperatures as high pressure starts to build
along the west coast.

Aviation As of 11:17 am pdt Saturday... For 18z tafs. Cold
front is just about gone to the east of the area and skies are
clearing quickly. There are a few clouds lingering around with
maybe an embedded shower, but otherwise things are drying out
quickly. ExpectVFR to dominate through the day and into the
evening hours. Overnight will be an interesting forecast as the
onshore flow is bringing plenty of low level moisture to the area
and will cause some low clouds to develop in many areas. The
pattern is expected to shift overnight with southerly flow
developing which will help to drive out the low level moisture. So
look for low clouds to develop late evening and early overnight
with the low clouds scouring out in the late overnight hours. A
mid to high level cig will likely remain as those clouds decks
will begin to stream in ahead of the next system for Sunday night.

This means that we should haveVFR for most of the day Sunday as

Vicinity of ksfo... ExpectVFR through the day with typical
moderate winds from the west. Low clouds will try to develop
overnight but will scour out quickly as drier air fills in from
the south in the pre sunrise hours.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR today with ifr possible tonight due
to low CIGS giving way toVFR again tomorrow morning. Winds will
be light to moderate through the day.

Marine As of 10:56 am pdt Saturday... Expect moderate to fresh
winds from the northwest near the coast today in the wake of this
mornings frontal passage. Winds will shift on Sunday to come out
of the south and increase ahead of the next system. A long period
northwest swell will move through waters into tonight before
decaying on Sunday.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tngt Sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm
sca... Pt reyes to pigeon pt 0-10 nm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm
sca... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm
sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt piedras blancas 10-60 nm
sca... Rough bar advisory for sf bar
sca... Mry bay until 3 am
public forecast: st
aviation: bfg
marine: bfg
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.