Thursday, January17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Point Arena, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:18PM Thursday January 17, 2019 1:44 AM PST (09:44 UTC) Moonrise 2:25PMMoonset 3:53AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Arena, CA
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location: 36.95, -126.32     debug

Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 170611
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
1011 pm pst Wed jan 16 2019

Synopsis Cold front pushing through the area will keep heavy
rain going into early Thursday morning across the central coast.

Behind the front, showers and gusty winds will continue but will
be much lighter than the prefrontal activity. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue on Thursday. Dry Friday and Saturday
with a chance of some light rain on Sunday as a weak front passes
through. Dry weather returns Monday through most of next week.

Discussion As of 10:10 pm pst Wednesday... Cold front pushing
through the area this evening with heavy rain ahead of it and
numerous showers behind it. Convection remains possible with
lightning being observed across parts of the area, with the
greatest threat of thunderstorms and heavy rain now shifting into
the central coast for the next several hours. Heavy rain will also
continue through about 11 pm in the south and east bay with
showers north and west of this area. Convective showers will bring
heavy rain rates and very gusty winds. As the cold front and
associated band of heavy rain has pushed through, impressive
hourly rainfall rates of 0.2 to 0.4 inches per hour have been
observed in most lower elevation sites, with upwards of 0.5 inches
per hour in the higher elevations. Higher rates in shorter time
frames have been observed under convective cells. We have received
multiple reports of small stream and urban flooding as well as
some rock and mud slides today. As precipitation tapers to showers
behind the front, small stream flood threat will gradually
decrease but creeks will remain high overnight. Showers overnight
will decrease the rate at which these streams can recede but are
unlikely to cause additional rises on the smaller creeks.

Additionally, major rivers have been increasing rapidly and many
will approach monitor stage overnight. Will continue to monitor
rises on these rivers. Heavy rainfall will continue across the
central coast, especially the santa lucias through about 1 am
before tapering off to showers the remainder of the night.

Very gusty and damaging southerly winds have been the other major
issue today. For example sfo reported a gust of 61 mph late in
the afternoon with gusts in the 50s for several hours. Winds in
the higher terrain have been very strong with gusts in the 70-90
mph range across the highest peaks. These gusty winds have caused
tree and powerline damage across the area with several reports of
trees down and power outages. Winds will gradually subside
overnight behind the front but will remain gusty for at least a
few more hours. Across the central coast, very strong winds will
continue for the next several hours until the front pushes

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into Thursday as
the unstable air with the trough moves overhead. Small hail and
isolated lightning will be possible under convective cells. The airmass
will gradually stabilize towards sunset ending the threat of
thunderstorms by evening. Additional rainfall amounts will be much
less than today but brief heavy rain is possible under convective
cells. Conditions will dry out Friday and Saturday with another
chance of light rain on Sunday. See the previous discussion for
more details.

Prev discussion As of 2:13 pm pst Wednesday... Forecast cold frontal
passage is still on track. We've had several lightning strikes
offshore with a few over san mateo and around pt reyes. The
heaviest rain is currently falling across the north bay with rates
around 0.30 per hour for sonoma and marin where an urban and
small stream flood advisory has been issued to deal with the
evening commute and rising creeks (willow brook at penngrove
park). The wind advisory remains in effect for the interior valley
with high wind warnings for the coast and hills through 3 am
Thursday. The buoys are still getting southeast winds in excess of
40 kts as the 970 mb low to our north continues to deepen. The
boundary will pass through the district this evening with strong
wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and several hours of moderate to
heavy rainfall. In sum the forecast remains on track with no major
changes. The bulk of the storm will impact the region from now
(north bay) through around midnight (central coast).

Will be watching the rises on the main stem rivers but the napa
and russian are forecast to stay comfortably below flood stages
even though they will see very impressive rises over the next 24
hours. The carmel river at robles del rio is still forecast to
reach monitor stage around sunrise. Due to recent and forecast
heavy rains in the santa lucia range the big sur and san antonio
rivers are forecast to reach action stages as heavy runoff comes
off the hills the next 24 hours.

For Thursday expect numerous showers and thunderstorms in post-
frontal environment. Even though there will be plenty of sunny
breaks convective showers will bring brief heavy downpours, small
hail and possible isolated lightning on Thursday. However, the
main storm impacts will be confined to the weds night frontal

Please read the beaches section below regarding high surf warning
and coastal flood advisory that GOES into effect Thursday for
large incoming surf.

Dry conditions Friday and Saturday. Weak front still progged for
Sunday with a chance of light rain.

High pressure returns Monday through next week as high pressure
builds. Long range models keep things dry through the end of the
month but show some signs of a return to wet weather by the
beginning of feb as a trough tries to undercut the ridge.

Aviation As of 10:02 pm pst Wednesday... For 06z TAF package.

Latest surface observations indicate the start of a gradual
decrease in winds speeds at most TAF sites. Sfo reported the
highest gust of all TAF sites at 53 kt earlier this evening. The
steady moderate to heavy rain will become more showery over the
next several hours as the cold front pushes through the bay area.

These showers are forecast to continue into Thursday morning with
some locally gusty winds persisting at some of the wind-prone

Vicinity of ksfo... Strong, gusty southerly winds will gradually
subside at the terminal over the next several hours as the main
frontal passage pushes eastward. Expect the gusts to drop below
airport weather warning criteria (35 kt) sometime around midnight
local time. Rain intensity will also decrease in the coming hours,
though scattered showers will likely continue off on through

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to sfo.

Monterey bay terminals... Very brief strong wind are presently
passing through mry as of the 06z TAF publication time. Moderate
to heavy rain will accompany these strong winds for another few
hours before transitioning to rain showers. Winds will then
gradually subside from midnight onward.

Beaches As of 04:10 am pst Wednesday... A strong cold front
will push through the region this afternoon and evening bringing
locally heavy rainfall, strong and gusty winds as well as the
potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. This will
result in hazardous conditions along area beaches. In wake of the
frontal passage, a large and long period westerly swell will
impact the coast Thursday into Friday. Westerly swells of 16 to 24
feet with a period of 17 to 18 seconds will build through the day
Thursday and result in breaking waves of 25 to 30 feet, favored
locations up to or exceeding 40 feet. Thus, a high surf advisory
has been issued. These large breaking waves will lead to
increased wave run- up on beaches with waves topping and washing
over large rocks and jetties. These conditions may also produce
localized coastal flooding of vulnerable locations. Use extreme
caution near the surf zone as these large waves will be capable of
sweeping people into the frigid and turbulent ocean water. Cold
water shock may cause cardiac arrest, and it also can cause an
involuntary gasp reflex causing drowning, even for a good swimmer.

The surf zone will be very dangerous due to strong currents and
powerful breaking waves. The large swell is forecast to gradually
subside on Friday.

Marine As of 10:00 pm pst Wednesday... Wednesday's powerful
system will continue pushing inland, allowing for the gale-force
winds to slowly subside through the night. Scattered rain showers
-- locally heavy, at times -- will continue through sunrise
Thursday. In addition, a very large and long period west swell
will arrive Thursday morning and persist into Friday. This
incoming swell will prolong the hazardous sea conditions
throughout the waters, particularly for small vessels.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tngt High wind warning... Caz006-505-507-509-511-512-517-518-529-
wind advisory... Caz506-508-510-513-516-528
flash flood watch... Caz006-505>513-517-528>530
glw... Sf bay until 3 am
glw... Mry bay until 3 am
glw... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm until 3 am
glw... Pt reyes to pigeon pt 0-10 nm until 3 am
glw... Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 3 am
glw... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm until 3 am
glw... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm until 3 am
glw... Pigeon pt to pt piedras blancas 10-60 nm until 3 am
public forecast: st
aviation: rowe
marine: rowe
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (4,6,7,8)
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.