Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seacliff, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:28PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 4:16 AM PDT (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 4:05AMMoonset 4:44PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 306 Am Pdt Tue Oct 17 2017
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft at 13 seconds and sw 3 ft at 18 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 20 kt...becoming nw 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft at 12 seconds and sw 3 ft at 18 seconds.
Wed..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 ft at 12 seconds and sw 3 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 ft at 12 seconds and sw 3 ft at 16 seconds.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 15 seconds and sw 3 ft at 16 seconds. Chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 10 to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Sat..NW winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 9 to 12 ft.
PZZ500 306 Am Pdt Tue Oct 17 2017
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... High pressure over the eastern pacific will gradually weaken and move south this week. A low pressure trough and cold front from the gulf of alaska will move across the california coastal waters later Thursday, and light rain will accompany the frontal passage. A moderate to long period southerly swell will mix with northwesterly swell this afternoon and tonight. A very large northwesterly swell train, the largest of this season so far, is then forecast to arrive Thursday night through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seacliff, CA
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location: 36.97, -121.91     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 171005
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
305 am pdt Tue oct 17 2017

Synopsis After two very warm days, a gradual cooling trend is
forecast for today and tomorrow. The pattern will then change as
a system drops down from the north and brings generally light
rainfall to parts of the area late Thursday into Friday.

Discussion As of 3:00 am pdt Tuesday... After two days which saw
very warm temperatures all of the way to the coast, a cooling
trend will start as the ridge of high pressure that has been
overhead weakens and is briefly replaced by a zonal flow. Both
today and tomorrow will see temperatures drop 3 to 8 degrees. So,
instead of widespead 80s to mid 90s, we will see highs back in
the 60s and 70s by Wednesday.

At the same time, we have been closely watching the latest
guidance as a weak disturbance is forecast to move from just off
the coast toward the far southern part of our region later today.

Goes16 is picking up this feature and already shows some cooling
cloud tops in the area. Models remain all over the board with
what will happen with this feature. Local WRF and hrrrx both
indicate light precipitation over the souther third of monterey
county and possibly into the southern portion of san benito
county. However, a slew of other models keep the moisture to the
south and indicate only some clouds. Based on both the hrrrx and
wrf keeping any convection in far southern parts of our cwa,
decided to go with 15 pops but keep it confined from around big
sur and points to the east and south. Biggest concern would be for
dry lighting if we do get anything to form. Any precipitation
should be off to the east by the evening.

All signs still point to a brief but substantial pattern change as
a system drops down from the gulf of alaska and brings rain into
the north bay by late on Thursday. In general guidance has backed
off a bit with rainfall amounts compared to 24 hours ago on the
global models. However, 0z and 06z NAM do keep precipitation going
as the associated front moves through. Still looks like between

10" and 20" for many spots especially for san francisco bay
northward. The rest of our region will likely see lesser amounts.

Winds will be locally breezy due to the frontal passage, however
speeds should mostly stay under 20 mph.

A ridge of high pressure in the pacific will rebuild to the coast
over the weekend before becoming nearly stationary near our cwa
next work week. 500 mb heights could approach an impressive 597 dm
suggesting another round of heat is likely.

Aviation As of 10:38 am pdt Monday... For 06z tafs. Generally
vfr conditions persist over the region with light winds overnight.

Fu hz will also likely impact the north bay terminals through the
forecast period as well. High clouds will also continue to stream
over the region. Onshore winds will then increase generally after
18z on Tuesday region wide.

High confidence.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR with light winds through early Tuesday
morning. More predominate W NW winds will return Tuesday
afternoon with winds at or around 10 kt.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR with light winds through the early
Tuesday morning. More predominate W NW winds will return Tuesday
afternoon.

Fire weather As of 10:35 pm pdt Monday... A pattern change is
on the way, with a general cooling, moistening trend and the
possibility of wetting rains arriving this week. Winds will begin
to shift and become more onshore tonight, helping to bring the
cooler temps, moister air mass, and improved air quality for many
areas. Temperatures will decrease a few to several degrees each of
the next 3 days, returning to near normal temperatures by mid
week. Humidities will also increase given the cooler temperatures
and onshore flow. Some uncertainty regarding the upcoming rains.

A convective complex off of the baja california coast located on
the southwestern flank of the exiting ridge will bring a slight
chance of thunderstorms southern monterey and san benito counties
from late this morning through the evening.

Model data now indicates light non-wetting warm sector precip
arriving late morning Thursday, while the main band of cold
frontal precipitation arriving Thursday evening through Friday
morning. This system will bring wetting rains to some areas but
not others, with the best chance of wetting rains over the north
bay mountains and hills, where fires are most active. Much less
precipitation is expected farther southward and or at lower
elevations.

Marine As of 10:35 pm pdt Monday... Generally light to moderate
northerly winds will persist over the coastal waters through late
week. A cold front is forecast to pass through the region late
Thursday evening from the northwest. The front will bring light
rain from northwest to southeast Thursday evening through Friday
morning. A long period southerly swell train will arrive late
tonight and will mix with a robust long-period northwesterly swell
late Thursday evening.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday None.

Public forecast: bell
aviation: rgass
marine: rgass
fire weather: drp
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 14 mi91 min NE 1.9 55°F 1017 hPa35°F
46092 - MBM1 16 mi61 min NNE 7.8 59°F 56°F1017.4 hPa (-0.6)
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 24 mi55 min 54°F2 ft
MEYC1 25 mi46 min E 1.9 G 2.9 56°F 57°F1017.3 hPa
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 29 mi86 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 58°F 57°F4 ft1017.5 hPa (-0.3)
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 29 mi46 min 57°F4 ft
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 40 mi46 min SSW 2.9 G 2.9 60°F 66°F1017.3 hPa
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 45 mi46 min 58°F5 ft

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SW3SW7S5S54SE4S4S5S4W3CalmCalmNW3NW5NW5W3NW4NW63NW5CalmCalmE3
1 day ago3S9S7S9SW7SW8S5S7S3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmS4S4CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmNE3
2 days agoSE44W7SW9W6W7SW4W3CalmCalmW3NW4CalmNW3NW5NW6W5NW4NW4CalmCalmNW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Cruz, Monterey Bay, California
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Santa Cruz
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Tue -- 03:21 AM PDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:41 AM PDT     5.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:51 PM PDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:52 PM PDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.91.80.90.40.51.12.23.44.45.15.24.73.82.71.710.81.11.933.94.64.84.5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:53 AM PDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:29 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:33 AM PDT     0.73 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:28 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:24 PM PDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:44 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:58 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:28 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:57 PM PDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:49 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.20.50.70.70.60.2-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.400.40.60.70.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.