Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Cruz, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:56PM Monday November 20, 2017 1:22 AM PST (09:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:39AMMoonset 6:55PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ560 Pigeon Point To Point Pinos To 10 Nm- 923 Pm Pst Sun Nov 19 2017
Tonight..NW winds 10 kt...becoming east after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 ft at 12 seconds. Slight chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 ft at 12 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 5 to 6 ft...becoming 4 to 6 ft.
Thanksgiving day..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft... Becoming 3 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft.
PZZ500 923 Pm Pst Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... The eastern edge of a very moist sub-tropical flow will overlap the northern coastal waters through early this week. A warm frontal boundary connected to this moist flow will approach the coastal waters Monday and become nearly stationary while another warm front to the southwest advances toward it and the bay area. By late week into early next week a cold front will move southeastward over the coastal waters. Seas are expected to remain light to moderate through the first part of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Cruz city, CA
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location: 36.97, -122.02     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 200627
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
1027 pm pst Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis Look for a weather system to bring rain chances late
tonight and Monday, mainly across the north bay. There is a slight
chance of additional rainfall at times in the north bay for much
of this week, but most of our area is forecast to be warm and dry
through thanksgiving.

Discussion As of 9:00 pm pst Sunday... Very comfortable day
across our entire region with many locations into the lower to mid
60s. Considering that mid-november can often be rainy, breezy, and
cool, conditions were quite mild for the time of year. Satellite
and radar both show the leading edge of moisture approaching the
north bay. This is associated with a system focused farther to
the north. Along our region, the southern extent of the moisture
will move into napa sonoma tonight and potentially drop into part
of the san francisco bay area overnight into Monday morning. Rain
will then retreat farther to the north by the afternoon as a ridge
of high pressure builds in from the south. Rainfall amounts will
be minor -- less than a quarter of an inch for most of the north
bay. Around san francisco bay less than 0.05" is likely.

The building ridge will lead to warmer temperatures with 80s
expected to return to parts of monterey and san benito counties
on Tuesday. With an offshore gradient in place, the warmer weather
will even make it to the coast with mid 70s to lower 80s likely.

Farther to the north, temperatures will warm, but not nearly as
much due to the closer proximity to moisture. Highs will generally
be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Continued warm conditions are forecast through thanksgiving day
along with mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will lower by the
end of the week as the ridge shifts off to the east. No sign of
any weather hazards with the rain expected to stay mostly to our
north and only a slight chance of precipitation north of san
francisco. Latest model runs are also running drier than the ones
the day crew had access to.

Previous discussion After active weather earlier this week the
weekend will end quietly. Filtered sunshine blanket the bay area
this afternoon with mild temperatures.

Latest surface analysis shows a large area of high pressure over
the region and just off the west coast. Much farther to the NW a
surface low is located near 31.30n 149.90w with a front extending
to the NE and to the sw. Just south of the SW extending frontal
boundary is a very impressive moisture plume with pwats around two
inches. Over the next 24 hours or so a battle between the ridge
and frontal boundary will unfold. As of now, the models have the
ridge of high pressure winning out. That being said, enough
moisture and warm air advection will move over the north bay to
warrant a few showers in the forecast late tonight and Monday.

Rainfall amounts will generally be light with a tenth to a
quarter possible over the north bay. There could be a few spots
near the sonoma mendocino line that could be over one quarter of
an inch. Did cut back on rain chances south of the of the golden
gate, but there could be a stray shower early tonight before the
ridge builds in tomorrow. South of sf bay is expected to remain
dry.

Monday night into Tuesday ridging builds across the bay area
bringing dry conditions but more notably well above normal
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Current forecast will have
monterey san benito counties MAX temps eclipsing 80 degrees across
the interior and 70s at the coast. Elsewhere across the CWA highs
will be in the upper 60s and 70s. That will put MAX temps 10-15
degrees above normal for late november.

Ridge of high pressure weakens on thanksgiving with a slight drop
in temperatures. The weakening ridge will also allow for moisture
from the north to sag southward. Medium range models have varying
solutions on thanksgiving with the canadian showing precip to the
golden gate, GFS is north of golden gate and ECMWF is north of
santa rosa. In all, rainfall amounts are light as well-tenth to a
quarter. Given the uncertainty, will at least keep a slight
chance for showers over the north bay. The rest of the bay area
will likely have a dry and mild thanksgiving, especially south of
san jose.

The longer range models indicate the ridge will shift far enough
to the east late in the week to allow precipitation to gradually
spread into our forecast area between Thursday night and next
weekend. However, there are considerable model differences
regarding timing and location of rainfall late in the extended
forecast period.

Aviation As of 10:27 pm pst Sunday...VFR persists at the
terminals this evening, however cloud bases will steadily lower
tonight and Monday. A very moist, milder, and stable SW flow from
the sub-tropics primarily displacing to the pacific northwest and
northernmost california this week will brush the north bay with
light-moderate rain beginning tonight, while it remains mainly dry
to dry elsewhere to the south.

The WRF model indicates 20-30 knot SW winds at the 925 mb and 850
mb levels over the north bay counties starting early Monday morning
and lasting until early Monday afternoon. With a stable lower level
air mass in place and lighter surface winds though marginal low level
wind shear (llws) is forecast at ksts Monday. Lower level winds are
much less robust over the remaining bay area and areas to the south
Monday thus llws is not expected to the south.

Vicinity of ksfo... Light wind,VFR. Cloud bases lowering tonight and
Monday, dry runway. Low to moderate confidence.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals... Light e-se winds this evening, except SE to
10 knots salinas valley Monday morning.VFR and dry. Moderate to high
confidence.

Marine As of 10:20 pm pst Sunday... The eastern edge of a very
moist sub-tropical flow will overlap the northern coastal waters
through early this week. A warm frontal boundary connected to this
moist flow will approach the coastal waters Monday and become
nearly stationary while another warm front to the southwest
advances toward it and the bay area. By late week into early next
week a cold front will move southeastward over the coastal waters.

Seas are expected to remain light to moderate through the first
part of next week.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tngt None.

Public forecast: bell mm
aviation marine: canepa
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46092 - MBM1 15 mi73 min ENE 16 58°F 60°F1016.3 hPa (-2.7)
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 18 mi98 min Calm 55°F 1018 hPa49°F
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 24 mi93 min ENE 7.8 G 16 58°F 59°F3 ft1016.8 hPa (-1.9)
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 24 mi53 min 59°F3 ft
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 25 mi62 min 58°F2 ft
MEYC1 26 mi53 min SSE 6 G 7 56°F 58°F1017 hPa
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 38 mi53 min NE 1 G 2.9 56°F 60°F1018.5 hPa
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 44 mi53 min 57°F3 ft

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA12 mi30 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F53°F100%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmSW8W5SW5CalmE3CalmCalmN3CalmN4CalmW3
1 day agoNW4NW4NW3NW3E3NW4E4E4E63E7E53SW8SW8CalmCalmNW3NW4NW4CalmNW4NW4NW4
2 days agoCalmSW4SW5W7CalmCalmNW3Calm3N4NW65NW3E4N5NE3W4CalmCalmCalmNW3NW4NW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Cruz, Monterey Bay, California (sub)
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Santa Cruz
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:21 AM PST     2.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:38 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM PST     5.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:55 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:43 PM PST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:55 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.83.63.32.92.72.733.64.34.85.25.14.73.82.61.50.5-0.1-0.20.20.81.72.63.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:46 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:56 AM PST     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:37 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:00 AM PST     0.45 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:46 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:03 PM PST     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:55 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:55 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:02 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:03 PM PST     0.66 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.3-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.10.20.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.3-00.30.60.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.