Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Cruz, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:20PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 3:48 PM PDT (22:48 UTC) Moonrise 5:00PMMoonset 5:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ560 Coastal Waters From Pigeon Point To Point Pinos California Out To 10 Nm- 208 Pm Pdt Tue Mar 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Rest of today..S winds 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. W swell 6 to 9 ft at 18 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 15 seconds. A chance of showers.
Tonight..SE winds 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. W swell 8 to 10 ft at 17 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. W swell 8 to 10 ft at 16 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 16 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 8 to 9 ft at 14 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 16 seconds. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 17 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 15 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 7 ft at 18 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 9 ft and S 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 10 to 12 ft and S 1 to 2 ft. Winds and wind waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
PZZ500 208 Pm Pdt Tue Mar 19 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Southerly winds will continue tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system and cold front moving in from the west. Winds will increase overnight and tomorrow before winds veer to the west to northwest later tomorrow. A long period west swell will continue into this evening increasing shoaling on bars and harbor entrances. An additional long period west to northwest swell will arrive towards the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Cruz city, CA
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location: 36.97, -122.02     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 192135 cca
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
234 pm pdt Tue mar 19 2019

Synopsis A cooling trend will begin today as cloud cover
increases over the region ahead of an approaching weather system.

Rain showers will develop over the region tonight into Wednesday
with an unsettled pattern likely to continue through late week.

While dry conditions are possible this weekend, unsettled weather
will return heading into next week.

Discussion As of 02:40 pm pdt Tuesday... A negatively tilted
trough continues to slowly approach california from the west
this afternoon. This storm system is aligned nearly parallel with
the coastline from point arena through santa barbara and has
already brought increased cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and
higher humidities to the region thus far today.

Southerly winds will progressively strengthen ahead of the cold
front through the remainder of the day, becoming gusty (peak
gusts up to 40-50mph in the windiest spots) along the coast and
over the higher terrain with breezy winds elsewhere.

Latest kmux radar imagery is detecting light reflectivity returns
ahead of the leading edge of a cold frontal boundary approximately
60 miles off of the coast. Despite the close proximity to the
area most models delay the onset of precipitation moving inland
until much later this evening, owing to the negative tilt and
sluggish speed of the parent trough. The latest model output has
decreased the overall precipitation intensity and coverage versus
previous runs. Storm total precipitation will range from 1.25-2.25"
for the higher terrain of the santa cruz and big sur mountains
while urban areas will generally range from 1 5" to 1 3", with
rain shadowed areas on the lower end of the spectrum. Hrrr model
output confines precipitation mostly in broken bands and scattered
showers wrapped closely on the eastern flank of upper low as it
lifts northeastward across the region. Previous model runs showed
somewhat more organization and strength than the current runs and
have reduced overall QPF as a result.

Models generally agree that precipitation should begin to spread
inland between 10pm and midnight tonight, however, a few precursor
showers could arrive in time for this evenings outbound commute.

Rain intensity and coverage should scale upwards after midnight as
the upper low shifts inland and lifts northeastward over the san
francisco bay area. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
overnight tonight through Wednesday morning due to an increasingly
unstable environment advecting into the region. The overall
weaker model output from the latest runs may increase the
potential for thunderstorms Wednesday as a result increased cloud
breaks leading to more surface heating and further destabilization
of the atmosphere.

A secondary vorticity pulse on the rear flank of the broader
trough will descend into the local area later Wednesday into
Wednesday night and extend the possibility of a few lingering
showers potentially into early Thursday. Confidence is relatively
low regarding how this second disturbance will interact with the
initial disturbance with some models introducing an increased
chance of showers over the higher terrain into Thursday morning.

A transitory high pressure ridge will develop by midday Thursday
allowing for a brief warming drying trend, however, another storm
system is set to descend into the region from the gulf of alaska
by Friday morning. Fridays storm system will move from north to
south and bring the bulk of any precipitation to the north bay.

Precipitation along the north bay coastal range could approach
1.00" while the north bay valleys pick up 1 2 to 2 3". Much less
precipitation is expected south of the golden gate, with 1 4 to
1 3" in the immediate sf bay shoreline, and progressively less
farther southward.

Drier weather will prevail through most of the weekend with a
slight warming trend into Sunday but a third storm system will
begin to advance on the region early next week. Forecast models
and ensemble members continue to pepper later Monday through early
Wednesday as wet time periods, however, there is still a bit too
much noise to pin down exactly when, where, and how much to
expect.

Aviation As of 10:32 am pdt Tuesday... For 18z tafs.VFR
conditions into this evening with high clouds overhead. The bay
area has seen another morning of occasional haze reducing vis
temporarily to MVFR, this may continue into the early afternoon.

High res models show showers arriving from south to north between
03z-05z tonight and continuing on and off through the period. As
showers approach, expect low clouds to develop across the region.

MVFR CIGS will be possible tonight and tomorrow morning along with
periods of MVFR vis during heavier showers. Southerly winds today
may briefly turn onshore this afternoon before returning out of
the SE to SW overnight. Winds may become gusty overnight around
20-25 kt.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR mainly with occasional MVFR vis this
morning due to haze. High clouds will continue ahead of an
approaching weather system before CIGS lower to MVFR overnight
when shower chances increase. SE winds expected overnight and may
become gusty at times as the front moves through.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR conditions with high clouds. MVFR
cigs to develop overnight as shower chances increase. SE winds
this morning will become onshore this afternoon before returning
out of the SE and increasing overnight. Gusty winds forecast down
the salinas valley overnight.

Marine As of 09:00 am pdt Tuesday... Southerly winds will
continue today and tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure
system and cold front moving in from the west. Expect winds to
increase and veer to the west northwest on Wednesday. A long
period west swell will arrive today increasing shoaling on bars
and harbor entrances.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tngt Sca... Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm
sca... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm
sca... Sf bay from 3 am
sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm from 3 am
sca... Pt reyes to pigeon pt 0-10 nm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt piedras blancas 10-60 nm
sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm from 3 am
sca... Rough bar advisory for sf bar from 9 pm
sca... Mry bay
public forecast: drp
aviation: as
marine: as
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46092 - MBM1 15 mi35 min S 1.9 57°F 56°F1010.3 hPa (-1.6)
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 17 mi33 min WNW 8.9 G 26 58°F 1010.6 hPa49°F
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 18 mi64 min WNW 8 61°F 1011 hPa52°F
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 24 mi59 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 56°F 56°F5 ft1010.2 hPa (-1.5)
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 24 mi49 min 56°F6 ft
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 25 mi49 min 57°F2 ft
MEYC1 26 mi73 min 56°F1010.3 hPa
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 38 mi31 min NW 8 G 8.9 67°F 61°F1010.2 hPa
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 44 mi49 min 55°F5 ft

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA12 mi56 minW 810.00 miFair64°F48°F56%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W5S6SW5W3W5SW4CalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmW8
1 day agoSW4W5W4W3SE5CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmNW5NW5N5N4N3NW3CalmCalmCalmSW6SW7W8W12
2 days agoW8W7W7W3CalmS3CalmNW3N4NW4NW3N3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4Calm3CalmS5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Cruz, Monterey Bay, California (sub)
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
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Tue -- 02:31 AM PDT     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:51 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:37 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:45 AM PDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:41 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:47 PM PDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:00 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:31 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:29 PM PDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.4-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.30.10.40.70.80.60.3-0.2-0.6-1-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.70.90.90.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.