Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrollton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:54PM Saturday April 29, 2017 7:28 AM EDT (11:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:04AMMoonset 10:36PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 649 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening...then showers and tstms likely after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 649 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered offshore this weekend. The next cold front approaches the area Monday...then crosses the waters Monday night into Tuesday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrollton CDP, VA
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location: 36.97, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 291049
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
649 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Synopsis
Bermuda high pressure prevails off the southeast coast through the
weekend. A backdoor cold front will drop south across the northern
delmarva peninsula tonight then lift back north as a warm front
Sunday. The next cold front pushes across the region Monday night.

Near term /through tonight/
Showers dissipating and will quickly exit off the lwr md ERN shore
around 12z.

Pvs dscn:
latest msas has a frontal boundary nearly stationary ivof the
mason- dixon line with a strong h5 "bermuda" ridge off the se
coast. This high appears strong enuf to keep the boundary north
of the fa today. Otw, cirrus shield continues to overspread the
fa from the convection to the north.

Expect morning stratus along the coast to mix out shortly after
sunrise. Otw, sct CU and bkn ci yields a pt to mstly day ahead.

Today to be the hottest day of this stretch as h85 temps (17-18c)
support summer-like readings in the lwr 90s west of the bay,
85-90 eastern shore area with readings remaining in the 70s at
the beaches. SW winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Record
highs will be approached, see cli section below.

Short term /Sunday through Tuesday night/
Bermuda high remains in control. However, a s/w low will track along
the frontal boundary to the north. Once this low moves east, the
boundary is progged to sag south. However, the models differ in
position of the boundary which poses a challenge for pops tonight.

Nam farther north and keeps the fa dry while the GFS has the
boundary as far south as akq northern zones. Given the differences,
elected to keep the current grids which shows a 30 pop across the
lwr md eastern shore through 06z with a buffer area of slght chc
pops. Warm and humid with lows from the mid 60s to lwr 70s.

The front then lifts back north a bit keeping the fa in the summer
like airmass Sunday. H85 temps somewhat cooler than Saturday (14-
16c). Mstly sunny with highs in the mid-upr 80s west of the bay, low-
mid 80s easterrn shore except 70 at the beaches.

Dry Sunday night as the models keep pcpn west of the fa thru 12z
mon. Pt to mstly cldy and warm. Lows in the 60s.

Moisture progged a bit slower east ahead of the apprchg cold front
mon. Backed off on pops thru abt noon Monday. Pops quickly ramp up
Monday afternoon as a decent feed of moisture in noted, especially
west of i95 (chc to likely pops after 18z). Ridge holds tight along
the coast so think most areas stay dry thru 21z. Pw's arnd 1.5 inches
so kept mdt rainfall rates in the grids. Highs in the low-mid 80s
except 75-80 along the coast.

Cold front crosses the fa Monday night and offshore by 12z tue. A
decent slug of moisture progged ahead of it. Adjusted the grids for
better timing of the pcpn with likely pops across the west during
the evening then chc pops after midnite. Chc pops during the evening
along the SE coast with likely pops after midnight. Turning cooler
with lows from the upr 50s NW to mid 60s se.

Long term /Wednesday through Friday/
Weak high pressure will provide dry wx for Tue morning thru wed,
as it slides fm the gulf coast states to off the SE coast. Lows
mon night in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs on Tue in the mid
70s to lower 80s. Lows Tue night ranging thru the 50s into the
lower 60s. Highs on Wed ranging thru the 70s to near 80. Low
pressure will approach fm the wsw late Wed night thru thu, then
lifts just wnw of the area during Fri while pushing a cold front
into the region. Pops will increase to high chc on thu, then high
chc to likely pops for Thu night and fri. Highs on Thu will range
fm the upper 60s to upper 70s. Lows Thu night will range fm the
lower 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Fri will range fm the mid 60s to
mid 70s.

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/
MVFR st along the coast will mix out next few hrs.VFR conditions
expected after 14z with only sct-bkn ci and sct CU through the
day. Ssw winds gusts btwn 15-20 kts.

Outlook... Mainly dry weather expected through the remainder of
the weekend, although some convection is possible across delaware
tonight along a backdoor cold front. Next frontal boundary late
Monday into Tuesday with possibility of showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
No headlines necessary with this forecast package. Broad bermuda
high pres allows for 10-15 kt s/sw flow today, with 1-2 ft waves
over the bay and 2-4 ft seas over coastal wtrs. A backdoor front may
drop into northern areas tonight, before pushing back north as a
warm front sun. S/sw winds again 10-15 kt Sun with the high
offshore. Next cold front approaches the area mon, and with a tight
pres gradient ahead of the front, SCA conditions of 15-25 kt
sustained winds gusting to 30 kt are likely starting around midday
mon, lasting into Mon night until the cold front crosses the wtrs.

Winds decrease into Tue as CAA is weak behind the frnt.

Hydrology
Keeping flood advisory in mecklenburg county going today, with
vdot continuing to report numerous roads closed in the kerr dam
area, creating ongoing navigation concerns.

Climate
It still appears likely that richmond and norfolk will each end
the month with the warmest april on record. Very warm temperatures
expected today and an unseasonably warm april to date should combine
to push the april 2017 average temperature above that which occurred
in 1994. As noted below, both of the previous records on the books
were established in 1994. This month's temperatures look to end up
around one degree above those values.

Average temperatures / record average temperature
through 4/28/17:
apr 2017
avg temp record
location to date avg temp year
-------- -------- ------ ----
richmond 63.1 63.2 1994
norfolk 65.3 64.7 1994
*********************************************
record high temps for today 4/29:
ric... 93 in 1974
orf... 92 in 1974
sby... 89 in 1974
ecg... 90 in 1974
record high min temps for today 4/29:
ric... 67 in 1956
orf... 66 in 1981
sby... 65 in 1974
ecg... 67 in 1981

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bmd/mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Mpr/tmg
aviation... Mpr
marine... Mas
hydrology... Akq
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 1 mi41 min SW 8 G 9.9 73°F 1020.9 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 6 mi41 min 68°F
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 6 mi41 min SW 15 G 17 73°F 1021.7 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 7 mi41 min WSW 6 G 12 74°F 1020.5 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 15 mi41 min SW 6 G 8 74°F 69°F1020.6 hPa
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 17 mi41 min W 16 G 19 73°F 65°F1020.4 hPa
44072 18 mi29 min WSW 12 G 14 72°F 64°F1 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 18 mi41 min SW 6 G 13 75°F 66°F1019.7 hPa
44064 18 mi29 min 9.7 G 12 72°F 63°F1 ft1021 hPa (+1.8)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 20 mi41 min SW 15 G 17 74°F 1019.4 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi41 min SW 11 G 16 75°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 25 mi29 min SSW 9.7 G 12 75°F 70°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi47 min SW 8.9 G 11 65°F
44096 33 mi38 min 59°F2 ft
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 34 mi59 min SW 1.9 75°F 1020 hPa71°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi47 min 62°F3 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi29 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 69°F 63°F1 ft1019.8 hPa (+1.5)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi41 min S 11 G 12 1020.5 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA8 mi90 minSW 107.00 miOvercast76°F70°F82%1020.5 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA9 mi91 minSSW 1210.00 miOvercast76°F72°F89%1020.3 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA12 mi35 minSW 107.00 miOvercast75°F71°F88%1020.3 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi38 minWSW 1110.00 miOvercast76°F71°F85%1020.5 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi91 minSSW 58.00 miOvercast75°F71°F88%1019.3 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi34 minSSW 77.00 miOvercast74°F71°F90%1021.3 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi34 minSSW 65.00 miFog/Mist73°F69°F91%1021 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi33 minSW 108.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F69°F85%1020.6 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi54 minSW 510.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW7SW6W7W6SW73W54NE53SW7SW4SW445
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2 days agoW8NW9W7W9W9W8W8W7W6W4CalmCalmSE6SE5SE6SE5SE6S5S6S6S6S7SW8SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Newport News, James River, Virginia
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Newport News
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Sat -- 12:13 AM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:43 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:45 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.43.32.821.10.3-0.2-0.30.10.71.52.32.72.82.51.91.10.4-0.1-0.20.10.81.62.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:38 AM EDT     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:10 AM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:36 PM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:24 PM EDT     1.44 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.70.1-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.3-0.70.10.710.90.50-0.5-1.1-1.5-1.6-1.2-0.60.311.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.