Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrollton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:14PM Thursday May 23, 2019 10:43 AM EDT (14:43 UTC) Moonrise 11:38PMMoonset 8:54AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 1008 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Rest of today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 1008 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure settles off the southeast coast today into tonight as low pressure passes north of the region. This area of low pressure drags a weak cold front through the area late tonight. High pressure builds in from the northwest Friday, and then passes over the region Saturday, and then shifts off the southeast coast Sunday and memorial day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrollton CDP, VA
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location: 36.97, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 231111
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
711 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure settles off the southeast coast today into
tonight as low pressure passes north of the region. This area of
low pressure drags a weak cold front through the area late
tonight. High pressure builds in from the northwest Friday and
then passes over the region Saturday, and then shifts off the
southeast coast Sunday and memorial day.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

current GOES wv and IR imagery depict a shortwave trough with
intense convection pushing through the midwest, with a mid
upper level ridge centered over the southeast coast. At the
surface, high pressure is located off the coast, with low
pressure over the great lakes, and a cold front trailing into
the mississippi valley. The mid upper level ridge axis will push
offshore later this morning as the shortwave trough tracks
through ERN great lakes. Meanwhile, the low-level flow will
become sw, which will allow for slow moistening of the low-level
airmass. Much warmer high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s
to around 90f, with low 80s for much of the ERN shore and
coastal SE va NE nc, and upper 70s at the immediate atlantic
coast of the ERN shore.

The shortwave trough is expected to trigger additional strong
to severe tstms N of the region from pa to nj later this aftn in
a zone of 40-50kt 500mb flow and 35-45kt 700mb flow. It should
be noted that this shortwave will dampen upper ridging to a
degree,with resultant quasi-downslope flow serving to lower
areal coverage of tstms over the local area. Hence, there are
mixed solutions amongst the cams with respect to the SRN extent
of the convection later this aftn and evening. Another factor to
consider for areal extent of convection is a rather prominent
cap ~900-850mb. SPC has maintained a marginal risk across the
nrn third of the area, with the slight risk line clipping the
nrn neck and md ERN shore. This is definitely conditional on
tstms actually reaching the area, but any tstms that do reach
the area could produce locally damaging wind gusts and large
hail. Pops are mainly 20-30% from about 20z-04z. Drier air
arrives late as a weak cold front moves through the area. Low
temperatures late tonight range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Short term Friday through Sunday
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

the airmass behind the front Friday will still be rather warm
as high temperatures range from the low 80s over the ERN shore
(upper 70s immediate atlantic coast), to the upper 80s low 90s
for much of the area with downsloping deep layer NW flow. Drier
behind the front Friday, especially N where aftn dewpoints drop
into the low mid 50s. The 23 00z NAM brings some upper energy
through the area within the NW flow. However, a dry forecast has
been maintained given limited moisture.

23 00z numerical guidance depicts somewhat of a reprieve from
the anomalous heat Saturday as high pressure passes across the
region resulting in e-se low-level flow along the coast, and
se-s flow farther inland. Forecast highs Saturday range from the
low mid 70s E (cooler along the immediate atlantic coast of the
ern shore) to the low mid 80s farther inland, after morning
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. By Saturday evening, there is
a slight chc of showers tstms drifting off the higher terrain
into the piedmont.

Sunday has the potential to be the hottest day of the spring
thus far. Surface high pressure slides well off the southeast
coast as low pressure moves into the ERN great lakes. This will
result in wsw low-level flow, which will help boost high
temperatures into the low mid 90s inland, with upper 80s over
the ERN shore, and even mid 80s at the immediate atlantic coast.

Lows Sunday morning range from the mid 60s to around 70f.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
As of 250 pm edt Wednesday...

summerlike temperatures remaining above normal through the extended
forecast period. An upper level anticyclone remains centered along
the gulf coast early next week, putting our region in w-nw flow
aloft. Meanwhile, an anomalous deep trough aloft will continue
to largely remain out over the WRN conus. A weak frontal
boundary crosses the area Sun evening-sun night, but only
isolated tstms are expected (mainly N ne). Isolated-scattered
aftn evening tstms are possible on mon, but the chance of this
is only ~20%. Drying out from tue-wed as upper ridging amplifies
over the us east coast as the aforementioned deep trough aloft
ejects out into the NRN plains.

Lows Sun night in the u60s-around 70f. Highs Mon in the 80s over the
lower ERN shore to the low 90s inland. Highs Tue from the low 80s
over the ERN shore to near 90f inland. Forecast highs on Wed are in
the low 90s in most areas, but there is the potential for it to be
even warmer.

Aviation 11z Thursday through Monday
As of 710 am edt Thursday...

high pressure is centered off the mid-atlantic coast as of 11z.

The wind is 5-8kt out of the S under with bkn CIGS ~5kft over se
va NE nc. These clouds should dissipate and move offshore later
this morning. Surface high pressure will push farther offshore
today with the wind becoming sw, and increasing to 10-12kt with
gusts up to 20kt by this aftn. Sct CU are expected to develop
by this aftn, with a 20-30% chc of showers tstms (primarily from
ric- sby and n) after 20z and continuing through 04z Friday as
a trough pushes across the region in NW flow aloft. Tstms could
produce locally stronger wind gusts along with reduced vsby in
brief heavy rain.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday through the weekend
and into memorial day as weak high pressure prevails over the
region. There is a low probability of showers tstms Sunday
night along and N of a line from ric-sby.

Marine
As of 420 am edt Thursday...

high pressure will slide farther into the atlc during today.

A weak cold front approaches from the northwest late today, then
drops acrs the area tonight into Fri morning. Early this
morning, winds were sse 5-15 kt over the waters, with waves 1-2
ft and seas 2-3 ft. As the cold front approaches from the
northwest, ssw winds will increase to 10-20 kt, with a few gusts
up to 25 kt over the NRN coastal zns, this aftn into tonight.

These winds will also build seas to 4-5 ft over the two nrn
coastal zns, so have hoisted a SCA for 650-652 fm 7 pm this
evening to 7 am Fri morning. Farther south, winds will be
between 15-20 kt with seas 3-4 ft. In the ches bay and rivers,
ssw winds this aftn into tonight will be 10-15 kt and waves
will be around 1-2 ft.

Behind the cold front on fri, high pressure will build back
into the area for the holiday weekend. Looks like winds and seas
will stay below SCA criteria through mon.

Climate
* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site avg 2019 value
* richmond: may 13th (sun 5 19)
* norfolk: may 16th (sun 5 19)
* salisbury: may 27th (none so far)
* eliz city: may 18th (sat 5 18)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Equipment
As of 420 am edt Thursday...

kakq 88d radar out of service until further notice. Techs are awaiting
parts to make needed repair. Return to service possible later today
or fri.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am edt Friday
for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Ajz mam
near term... Ajz mam
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz
marine... Tmg
climate... Akq
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 1 mi49 min SSW 11 G 13 71°F 1024.2 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 6 mi49 min SSW 8.9 G 11 71°F 1023.3 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 6 mi49 min 73°F1024.1 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 7 mi49 min SSW 8.9 G 14 73°F 1024 hPa
44087 15 mi43 min 70°F1 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 15 mi49 min WSW 6 G 9.9 73°F 75°F1023.9 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 18 mi49 min SSW 7 G 12 73°F 73°F1023.2 hPa
44072 18 mi53 min 70°F
44064 18 mi53 min SW 9.7 G 12 71°F 1024 hPa
CHBV2 19 mi49 min SW 8 G 14 72°F 1023.2 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 20 mi49 min SSW 12 G 13 71°F 1024.1 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi49 min SSW 8.9 G 16 73°F 1024 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 25 mi43 min 74°F 74°F1018.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi49 min S 9.9 G 11 69°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi43 min 66°F2 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi67 min SW 14 G 18 70°F 70°F1021.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi49 min S 17 G 19 1024.3 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA8 mi1.7 hrsS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F57°F59%1024.8 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA9 mi47 minSSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds74°F61°F65%1024.3 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA12 mi49 minSW 1310.00 miFair75°F60°F60%1023.7 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi52 minSSW 12 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds76°F59°F56%1023.9 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi1.8 hrsSSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds71°F59°F68%1024 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi48 minSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F58°F60%1024.4 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi48 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F61°F63%1024.7 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi47 minSSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F57°F57%1024.2 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi48 minSW 710.00 miFair75°F60°F61%1024 hPa

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11NE11NE12NE10NE9E9
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E10E9SE7SE5SE6SE4SE3CalmS3SE3CalmS3CalmS43S7S9SW9
1 day agoN11NE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Newport News, James River, Virginia
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Newport News
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:16 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:46 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:43 PM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.82.72.41.81.20.70.30.20.40.91.422.32.32.11.71.20.70.40.40.611.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:27 PM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.50.1-0.3-0.8-1-1.1-1-0.7-0.20.20.40.40.3-0-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.500.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.