Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrollton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:20PM Sunday October 22, 2017 6:50 PM EDT (22:50 UTC) Moonrise 8:49AMMoonset 7:28PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 647 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Building to 2 to 3 ft late.
Mon night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers late in the evening. Showers after midnight.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers until late afternoon. A chance of showers late.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 647 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will exit the coast tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on Monday, and push through the waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will slowly build into the area from the southwest Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrollton CDP, VA
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location: 36.97, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 222017
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
417 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure slides father off the mid atlantic coast tonight. A
cold front will approach from the west on Monday, then slowly
push through the local area on Tuesday. High pressure builds
across the gulf of mexico Wednesday and Thursday... As low
pressure lingers from the great lakes to new england.

Near term through Monday
Current analysis indicates ~1030 mb sfc high pressure centered
off the nj coast W upper level ridge axis aligned n-s invof
ern seaboard. Another warm mostly sunny day across the region,
though some sct CU have developed with sfc dew pts a bit higher
than the past few days. Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with
lows mainly in the 50s. During mon... Low pressure deepens over
the deep south lower ms valley while a strong upper ridge
remains in place slides just off the east coast. Still
warm mainly dry through mon... Increasing pops limited to (well)
w of I 95 toward late aftn early evening. Highs in the u70s e
to the l-m70s W (where clouds begin to thicken in the afternoon).

Short term Monday night through Wednesday
Latest 12z 22 GFS nam ECMWF remain fairly similar W the
overall timing of the next cold front... Now depicting the best
lift forcing for likely to categorical pops (60-90%) from about
06z Tue through 16z Tue (lingering into Tue evening along the
ern shore). Strong low level jet and sfc dew pts in the
60s... Will allow for some locally heavy downpours and isolated
tstms late Mon night Tue morning... Mainly for southern SE va ne
nc. While a few strong storms gusty winds will be possible,
severe threat looks limited due to unfavorable timing. Partial
clearing expected Tue by late morning W and by late aftn e... And
have continued W lowering pop trend w-e. Still mild through
tue W lows Mon night in the 60s... Then highs tues in the 70s to
near 80 f SE as cold air lags well behind off to the NW of the
local area.

Cold front reaches the coast early Tue night and is expected
to exit the coast by daybreak Wed morning. Any ra tapers
pushes off the coast Tue evening. Temperatures falling from the
60s in the evening to 50f inland and upper 50s closer to the
coast by Wed morning. Dewpoints also fall from the lower 50s nw
to lower 60s SE in the evening to 40-45f inland and 45f to
around 50f by morning. On wed, area looks to remain in between
the sfc cold front well offshore and deeper moisture cold pool
aloft to our wnw. Enough instability present to keep skies
partly to mostly cloudy, but will keep the forecast dry attm.

Cooler with highs mainly from the mid to upper 60s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Dry conditions Wed night as exiting cold front moves well
offshore. Light showers possible (mainly delmarva) Thu morning
as upper trough swings through the region. Otherwise, dry
conditions prevail Thu through at least Sat as sfc high
pressure builds in from the SW Thu and shifts off the mid
atlantic coast during fri. The high then tracks up off the new
england coast for sat. Model consensus diverges Sat night into
sun. ECMWF has a coastal low developing near the area... While
the GFS not only has a coastal low developing near the area
but also a deepening sfc low over the great lakes region into
ontario. Incoming precip differs greatly between models,
therefore have leaned closer to climatology during this time.

Temperatures at to slightly below normal for Wed night with
lows in the 40s (upper 30s possible far NW counties). Temps
slow to rebound on Thu as upper trough swings through and more
stable NW flow aloft develops over the area. Highs 60-64f. High
pressure slides into the region Thu night and then temperatures
slowly moderate. Lows Thu night in the 40s (around 50f beaches).

Seasonal normal highs Fri in the upper 60s to around 70f. Lows
fri night in the upper 40s inland to 50-55f immediate coast.

Highs Sat in the lower 70s (upper 60s beaches). Lows Sat night
generally in the 50s (upper 40s eastern piedmont). Highs sun
generally in the upper 60s to around 70f (mid 60s eastern
piedmont).

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
Sfc high pressure off the mid- atlantic coast ATTM and will have
vfr conditions through the evening hrs. Additional fog possible
late tonight early Mon morning, but will probably be a bit more
inland than past few nights (less at ecg) as some mixing is
expected closer to the coast. BecomingVFR after 13z Mon with
somewhat breezy sse winds near the coast. A cold front is
forecast to track through the region Mon night through tue
morning. This will bring the potential for MVFR ifr conditions
in rain and low cigs. MainlyVFR Tue aftn eve through thu.

Marine
High pressure will slide farther into the atlc tonight into mon
morning, allowing a frontal boundary with low pressure areas
riding nwrd along it to push ewrd thru the oh and tn valleys.

Expect ese then SE winds arnd 10 kt or less this evening into
mon morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft and seas 2 to 3 ft.

That frontal boundary and associated low pressure areas will
approach fm the west late Mon thru tue, then push acrs the
waters and offshore Tue night into Wed morning. The pressure
gradient will lead to increasing SE then S flow ahead of the
front later Mon thru Tue morning, then shifting to the wnw
behind the front Tue night into Wed morning. Have issued small
craft advisories for all the waters fm Mon night into at least
early Tue aftn (for the rivers), then lingering sca's thru tue
aftn early Tue evening for the ches bay and currituck snd. Will
have sca's for the coastal waters fm Mon night thru wed. S winds
of 15-25 kt with higher gusts will occur Mon night into tue
evening.

Seas will build to 5-9 ft with waves of 3-4 ft in the ches bay
likely. W to NW winds 10-15 kt expected Wed night thru thu, as
the front pushes out to sea and high pressure builds into the
area fm the west.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm Monday to 1 pm edt Tuesday for
anz635>638.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm Monday to 5 pm edt Tuesday for
anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm Monday to 7 pm edt Tuesday for
anz633.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm Monday to 7 pm edt Wednesday
for anz650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Bmd
aviation... Lkb
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 1 mi51 min NE 1 G 5.1 71°F 1026.5 hPa (-0.6)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 6 mi51 min 70°F1026.2 hPa (-0.6)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 6 mi51 min ESE 12 G 14 70°F 1026.3 hPa (-0.6)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 7 mi51 min E 8 G 8.9 71°F 1026.1 hPa (-0.4)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 15 mi51 min SE 6 G 9.9 72°F 71°F1026 hPa (-0.0)
44064 18 mi41 min 12 G 14 69°F 1 ft1026.4 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 18 mi51 min SE 8.9 G 11 69°F 70°F1026.1 hPa (-0.6)
44072 18 mi41 min ESE 9.7 G 12 70°F 1 ft
CHBV2 19 mi51 min ESE 8.9 G 11 69°F 70°F1025.6 hPa (-0.6)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 20 mi57 min ESE 8.9 G 11 70°F 1027.1 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi51 min E 9.9 G 9.9 69°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 25 mi41 min E 5.8 G 7.8
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi51 min ESE 6 G 8 69°F
44096 33 mi60 min 71°F2 ft
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 34 mi81 min SE 1.9 71°F 1027 hPa61°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi51 min 70°F2 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi41 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 1027 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi51 min ESE 8 G 8.9 1027.4 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA8 mi1.9 hrsE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F59°F64%1026.6 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA9 mi3.8 hrsESE 710.00 miA Few Clouds74°F59°F61%1026.7 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA12 mi57 minESE 810.00 miFair68°F60°F76%1026.4 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi60 minE 610.00 miFair70°F60°F71%1026.3 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi4.9 hrsS 710.00 miFair77°F56°F50%1027 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi56 minE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F62°F70%1026.4 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi56 minE 67.00 miFair69°F60°F74%1026.4 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi55 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F61°F78%1026.6 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair73°F62°F69%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE44NE10NE9NE9E13E10E6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN33N5NE6E5E7NE7E6E5
2 days agoSE4S4S5S5S3CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW4CalmCalmSW3NW4N4N6N9N10NE6N7NE6CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Newport News, James River, Virginia
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Newport News
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:30 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:50 AM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:10 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.41.81.20.60.30.30.61.21.92.633.12.92.41.71.10.50.30.40.81.422.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:38 AM EDT     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:15 PM EDT     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:54 PM EDT     0.67 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.2-0.9-0.50.10.710.90.70.3-0.1-0.6-1-1.2-1.1-0.8-0.40.20.60.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.