Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrollton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:22PM Thursday March 23, 2017 4:18 AM EDT (08:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:14AMMoonset 1:51PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 319 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am edt this morning...
Through 7 am..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 foot late.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 319 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure becomes centered over the waters today...then slides off the coast through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrollton CDP, VA
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location: 36.97, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230534
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
134 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure builds into the mid atlantic states
through Thursday. A gradual warming trend begins Friday into
the upcoming weekend. A more active weather pattern is
anticipated Sunday night into the first half of next week.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
Winds continue to diminish late this evening under a clear sky.

Expecting winds to become calm away from the water overnight
which will set the stage for chilly readings. Still
anticipating lows of 22-25f north of interstate 64 (including
interior md lower eastern shore), 26-28f inland va/ne nc, and
29-33 far SE va/ne nc coastal areas.

Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday/
Canadian high pressure continues to settle over the mid atlantic
region on Thu and then slowly slides offshore Thu night.

Slightly cooler with continued dry conditions thu/thu night.

Highs in the upper 40s to around 50f inland/low-mid 40s
immediate coast and md/va eastern shore. Lows in the upper 20s
to 32f inland /low-mid 30s beaches.

Dry with a gradual warming trend Fri through Sat as high
pressure shifts well offshore, and a warm front lifts northwest
of the area... Allowing warm air advection to commence with
winds becoming more s-sw. Temperatures are expected to rebound
to 60-65f most inland areas (mid 50s to lower 60s beaches and
md/va eastern shore) due to breezy southwest winds gusting to
around 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph md/va eastern shore.

Overall conditions will be dry as mid-upper level ridging and
decent subsidence aloft dominates (i.E. Best shower chances are
well north along the warm front). Otherwise, mid-high clouds
should stream across the region (especially north) in relatively
flat, upper level flow through Fri night. Lows around 50f.

Meanwhile, low pressure exits the intermountain west into the
central plains Fri into Fri night. As the low tracks into the
wrn midwest on sat, a secondary warm front is expected to lift
through the area. This will allow for additional warming in
continued southwest sfc winds and a noticeable influx of
moisture as dewpoints increase to around 50f. Although clouds
should clear out across the SE half of the area during the day
(as is typical with a warm frontal passage), aftn cumulus
development and increasing cirrus from the west will keep partly
sunny wording in the forecast. Taking all of the above into
account as well as improved daytime heating with an increasing
sun angle, went with a blend of wpc/mosguide for highs on sat
and bumped up the eastern shore due to the southwest winds
present. Expect highs in the mid 70s inland/low- mid 70s beaches).

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/
Medium range of the forecast period characterized by near to
above normal temperatures, courtesy of arriving mid-level
ridging aloft, and surface high pressure oriented just off the
mid atlantic/southeast coast. Main weather features of note will
be a series of mid/upper level troughs... Bringing a few periods
of scattered light precipitation over the weekend/early next
week. The first of these disturbances traverses across the
central/southern plains on Saturday, dampening as it crosses
e-ne into the ohio valley and great lakes on Sunday and into the
northeast on Monday. This feature will allow for some isolated
to scattered showers Sunday afternoon into early on Monday. Qpf
will be limited with this feature. Instability and weakening
dynamics/forcing remain maximized well off to our n-nw, and will
therefore maintain 40-60% pop over our western/nw tier for some
sct to numerous showers Sunday evening into Monday morning, with
lesser pops for more isolated showers across the SE coastal
plain. Mild southerly flow will keep temps mild, with forecast
highs in the upper 50s to 60s northern neck and lower md eastern
shore... With upper 60s to low 70s inland for the weekend into
early next week.

For the middle of next week... Attention turns to a pair of
shortwaves. A second southern stream disturbance is expected to
track east/northeastward from the ca coast... Across the plains
and mid-south late Sat to early Monday. This system will
continue to weaken as it pushes across the eastern third of the
conus Monday through early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a northern stream
system will drop from the pac NW toward the northern plains
early Monday, eventually reaching the great lakes by the middle
of next week. Models are still split on the evolution of these
systems. The 12z/22 ECMWF and 00z ec ensembles remains quicker
to dampen these features with the gfs/gefs a bit stronger/more
amplified. Taking a middle of the road approach remains the
preference at this point, with the resultant blended solution
allowing for continued mild weather Mon to Wed with at least a
small chance for showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Shortwave
ridging rebuilds behind this system for Wednesday. Highs remain
mild through the period, with 50s and 60s over the northern
neck of va into md, with highs well into the 60s to mid 70s
inland. Early morning lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s southern
sections.

Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/
High pressure/fair weather prevails over the region this
morning. A few high clouds at or above 25k feet agl are
streaming over the region, with little aviation impact. Surface
winds generally north to northeast at or below 10 knots. Skc
conditions expected today as high pressure settles over the
region. Winds become south to southeast this afternoon,
remaining at or below 10 knots.

Outlook... High pressure/fair weather prevails through Saturday.

A storm system approaches from the west on Sunday, with a good
chance of showers late Sunday through Monday.

Marine
7 pm update...

all gale warnings were allowed to expire at 7 pm. SCA expired in
the eastern virginia rivers except the lower james. Otherwise
sca will be in effect through early Thursday morning except
continuing in the coastal waters south of CAPE charles due to
seas through midday.

Previous discussion...

latest obs reflect strong surge of northerly winds ongoing
across the waters this afternoon. Winds averaging north at
25-30 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt over the bay and coastal waters
into the mouth of the james river.

Will be allowing gale headline to expire over the ches bay north
of little creek, stepping back to SCA through tonight. Will
maintain a gale for the mouth of chesapeake bay and the coastal
waters through 23z (7pm edt) for winds generally 25-30 kt with
gusts to around 35-40 kt. Laps/msas showing strong 3-hr pressure
rises on the order of 2-4 mb over the waters with decent flow
aloft mixing down 30-35 kt wind gusts over the waters this
afternoon. Low pressure slides farther off the coastal carolinas
through tonight as strong ~1040mb canadian high pressure builds
from the great lakes into the ohio valley. Pressure gradient
will slacken as the high builds overhead overnight. SCA over the
rivers drop this evening, and over the bay early Thu morning.

Existing gales over the coastal waters and mouth of the bay and
the currituck sound should be able to be dropped on time early
this evening, with a period of SCA needed through the night
before dropping below SCA thresholds Thu morning/early aftn over
southern waters. Seas of around 5-8 ft ATTM (highest southern
coastal waters) slowly subside tonight with waves of 4-5 feet.

High pressure settles over the waters Thursday morning with
winds becoming north to northeast at or below 15 knots. Seas
gradually subside from north to south Thursday morning, finally
dropping below 5 ft threshold in the southern coastal waters by
early Thursday afternoon.

High pressure slides offshore Thursday night with flow becoming
southwest Friday and lingering through Saturday. Speeds increase
to 15-20 knots Friday afternoon as a storm system develops over
the midwest. The next front crosses the waters early next week,
with relatively benign marine conditions expected over the
weekend in light return flow, courtesy of high pressure anchored
over the western atlantic. Seas remain 2-3 ft, waves 1-2 ft.

Equipment
Radar kdox remains inoperable due to a bad spectrum filter.

Maintenance is expected to begin overnight with an estimated
(though possibly unstable) return to service is now Friday,
march 24th.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt this morning for
anz630>634-650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt early this morning for
anz638.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for anz656-
658.

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Bmd/jdm
short term... Bmd
long term... Mam
aviation... Sam/lsa
marine... Mam/lsa
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 1 mi48 min NE 2.9 G 6 37°F 1033.1 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 6 mi48 min NE 16 G 18 37°F 1033.7 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 6 mi48 min 48°F1032.9 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 7 mi48 min NE 15 G 17 38°F 1032.5 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 15 mi48 min ENE 5.1 G 8.9 38°F 53°F1032.7 hPa
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 17 mi48 min NE 15 G 19 37°F 47°F1032.6 hPa
44072 18 mi28 min ENE 12 G 16 37°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 18 mi48 min ENE 12 G 17 38°F 48°F1032.9 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 20 mi48 min NE 17 G 19 38°F 1032.4 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi48 min N 17 G 20 38°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 25 mi28 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 36°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi48 min NNE 5.1 G 7 46°F
44096 33 mi57 min 46°F5 ft
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 34 mi48 min ENE 1.9 36°F 1034 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi36 min 45°F6 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi38 min NE 16 G 19 36°F 1033.1 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi48 min NNE 20 G 23 1033.5 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA8 mi79 minNE 1210.00 miFair37°F12°F37%1033 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA9 mi80 minENE 910.00 miFair35°F18°F52%1033.2 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA12 mi24 minNE 710.00 miFair34°F17°F50%1033.3 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi27 minNNE 1010.00 miFair37°F17°F44%1032.8 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi80 minENE 410.00 miFair34°F17°F50%1032.5 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair31°F25°F79%1033.2 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi43 minNNE 410.00 miFair32°F22°F68%1033.2 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi22 minNNE 410.00 miFair34°F16°F48%1032.8 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair34°F23°F65%1033.5 hPa

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3NW6N6N18
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1 day agoS7SW4SW8S6S4SW7SW4W8W8N9NE12NE11NE11NE7CalmCalmNE4E3CalmN3SW3CalmSW4SW3
2 days agoN12N12N9N11N12N9N11N6NW9N64N6N5NW3CalmCalmSE3S4S4S5S5S4S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for Newport News, James River, Virginia
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Newport News
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:06 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:52 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.81.31.82.22.42.42.21.81.30.90.50.40.60.91.41.92.22.32.11.81.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:33 AM EDT     0.63 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:10 PM EDT     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:04 PM EDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.40.60.60.50.2-0.1-0.5-0.8-1-0.9-0.6-0.30.10.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.5-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.