Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrollton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:21PM Saturday March 23, 2019 12:21 PM EDT (16:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:30PMMoonset 7:58AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 959 Am Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Rain likely.
Tue..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ600 959 Am Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will build over the area for the weekend. Low pressure approaches from the west Monday, with a cold front crossing the area Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrollton CDP, VA
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location: 36.97, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 231047
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
647 am edt Sat mar 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will rebuild over the area for the weekend. Low
pressure approaches from the west Monday, with a trailing cold
front crossing the area Monday night.

Near term through tonight
As of 340 am edt Saturday...

latest analysis reveals ~980mb surface low lifting across the
bay of fundy atlantic canada. Parent upper low continues to lift
across new england this morning, with shortwave ridging allowing
for quick clearing across the region this morning. To the west,
~1026mb sfc high pressure continues to build from the upper
midwest across the great lakes ohio valley today, allowing for a
chilly start and a mild, dry afternoon across the local area.

Remaining breezy today as gradient remains a bit compressed
between exiting low pressure and high pressure building in from
the west, but winds will drop off a bit from those of Friday.

Plentiful sunshine will help with the early chill later this
morning and a pleasant afternoon is on the way across the area.

Highs today ~60 inland, with highs in the low to mid 50s over
coastal communities.

Winds relax tonight as surface high builds in from the west.

Clear sky, dry air mass, and diminishing winds should team up to
bring a cool night across the area. Undercut cooler met guidance
by a few degrees, yielding early morning lows in the low to mid
30s, except a few upr 20s in normally colder spots.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 340 am edt Saturday...

surface high will be over the area to begin the day on Sunday,
with return flow ramping up as surface ridge slides offshore
Sunday aftn night. Milder on Sunday, with highs in the mid to
upper 60s west of the ches bay, 50s to near 60 along the coast.

Increasing clouds later Sun night with shallow overrunning
ensuing. Feasible that some sprinkles light rain could sneak in
toward dawn Monday morning, but kept pops out for now with
chances of measuring appearing quite low attm. Lows in the 40s.

Showers overspreads the area west to east Mon as the low
pressure tracks across the area. Highest pops in the afternoon.

Mild ahead of the trailing cold front with highs in the 60s
except some 50s at the beaches. Steady rain Monday night, as a
strong trailing cold front pushes across the area Mon night
with pcpn ending behind it Monday night northern central
zones... And after midnight across tidewater NE nc. Lows in the
30s north, 40-45 south.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 340 am edt Saturday...

strong cool canadian high pressure is progged (per 22 12z
numerical guidance) to build in from the N Tuesday in the wake
of the departing cold front and area of low pressure. Timing
differences appear to have (at least temporarily) eased with the
00z suite of models, with the cmc trending toward the GFS idea
of a stronger mid level ridge and a more suppressed southerly
system. A slight to low end chance pop has been maintained to
begin the day Tuesday morning, mainly for SRN va NE nc... But
expect later day clearing. Still, highs Tuesday will remain
chilly... ~10-15f below seasonal averages, with highs ranging
from the mid 40s along the coast, to around 50f inland. Lows
Tuesday night range from the upper 20s N the the mid 30s se.

Cool high pressure remains over the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night with dry and mostly sunny clear conditions, and
high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, followed by lows
in the low 30s N NW to around 40f se. High pressure slides
offshore Thursday into Friday resulting in a warming trend (but
remaining dry). Forecast highs reach the mid 50s along the coast
to low mid 60s inland Thursday, and then upper 50s low 60s
along the coast to mid upper 60s inland Friday. Lows Thursday
night Friday morning range from the upper 30s to mid 40s, then
mid 40s to low 50s Friday night Saturday morning.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 650 am edt Saturday...

vfr conditions have returned across area terminals this
morning, withVFR conditions to persist through the 12z taf
period and beyond through the weekend. Winds will remain gusty
with still-compressed pressure gradient. W-nw winds 15-20 kt
with gusts up to 25 kt from late morning through this aftn
before relaxing tonight (sat night), as pressure gradient
slackens with sfc high pressure building overhead.

Outlook:
high pressure will be in place over the region to begin the day
on Sunday, before sliding offshore Sunday aftn and night. Low
pressure along with a strong trailing cold front approaches from
the NW Monday, and crosses the area Monday aftn and night, with
high pressure building in from the N Tuesday. There is a
likelihood for degraded flight conditions Monday night into the
day on Tuesday, withVFR returning later Tue through the middle
of next week.

Marine
As of 345 am edt Saturday...

early morning surface analysis shows ~980mb low pressure well to the
northeast over eastern maine and 1024mb high pressure nosing
southeastward from the upper midwest into the local area. Check of
marine observations shows west and northwest winds with 20-25 knots
across the northern bay and offshore zones with gusts 35-40 knots.

Waves in the bay are 2-4 feet with seas offshore generally 4-7 feet.

Gale warnings remain in effect for the northern bay and offshore
north of CAPE charles light this morning and have extended the bay
warning a few hours further until 11z 7am given strong gusts 35-40
knots observed over the last hour or two. Elsewhere, SCA headlines
are in effect for all remaining marine zones this morning. The
pressure gradient should begin to relax over the course of the
morning with winds in the bay dropping to 15-20 knots and 20-25
knots offshore. Winds should drop below SCA thresholds everywhere by
this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. Waves will
decrease to 2-3 feet in the bay this afternoon and 1-2 feet by this
evening. Seas will be a little slower to subside this afternoon and
offshore zones may need a short extension in SCA headlines to cover
5 foot seas out closer to 20nmi.

Generally expecting quiet marine conditions tonight and Sunday as
northwesterly winds veer around to southwesterly ahead of the next
area of low pressure approaching from the west. Southwest winds will
increase to 10-15 knots on Monday before a strong cold front crosses
the waters Monday evening. Strong north and northeast flow will
follow the frontal passage with scas likely and the potential for
gales across the southern offshore zones. Seas will build
considerably (5-7 feet N and 7-9 feet s) with stout NE winds
Tuesday.

Hydrology
As of 345 am Saturday...

we have cancelled the flood warnings on the james at westham ric
locks. Flood warning for the meherrin river at lawrenceville
continues with a crest expected later this morning. See
flsakq for details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt this morning for
anz635>638.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz631-
632-634-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for anz633.

Gale warning until 7 am edt this morning for anz630.

Gale warning until 11 am edt this morning for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Ajz
aviation... Mam cp
marine... Rhr
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 1 mi40 min WNW 14 G 18 49°F 1020.8 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 6 mi40 min W 21 G 24 48°F 1019.5 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 6 mi40 min 50°F1020.4 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 7 mi34 min WNW 11 G 18 51°F 1020.4 hPa
44087 15 mi52 min 47°F2 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 15 mi40 min NW 12 G 18 51°F 51°F1020.4 hPa
44072 18 mi32 min 47°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 18 mi34 min WNW 12 G 20 49°F 49°F1020 hPa
44064 18 mi32 min NW 16 G 19 47°F 1020.2 hPa
CHBV2 19 mi40 min WNW 17 G 22 47°F 1019.2 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 20 mi34 min WNW 16 G 21 48°F 1020.5 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi34 min W 16 G 21 49°F 1018.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi40 min WNW 14 G 18 48°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 34 mi52 min W 6 51°F 1021 hPa22°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi52 min 46°F4 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi28 min NW 16 G 18 46°F 47°F1018.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi34 min WNW 19 G 21 1020.8 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA8 mi83 minWNW 1810.00 miFair and Breezy51°F24°F35%1020.8 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA9 mi26 minW 19 G 289.00 miFair and Breezy52°F21°F31%1021 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA12 mi28 minWNW 13 G 2010.00 miFair53°F24°F32%1020.7 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi31 minW 10 G 2110.00 miFair52°F21°F31%1020.2 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi86 minNW 13 G 2110.00 miFair50°F24°F37%1019.9 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi27 minW 10 G 227.00 miFair53°F14°F22%1021 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi47 minW 11 G 1910.00 miFair53°F22°F31%1021.3 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi26 minWNW 14 G 2210.00 miFair52°F19°F27%1020.4 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi27 minWNW 13 G 2010.00 miFair55°F24°F31%1021 hPa

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE15
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2 days agoNE13NE12NE11NE11NE10NE7NE9NE9NE9NE5NE6NE6NE6E6E3E5E4SE6E8E7SE13
G19
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SE13
G21
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G25

Tide / Current Tables for Newport News, James River, Virginia
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Newport News
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:10 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:16 PM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:22 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.92.31.40.5-0.2-0.5-0.40.211.92.62.92.82.31.50.7-0-0.4-0.30.10.91.82.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:03 AM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:39 AM EDT     1.11 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:13 PM EDT     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:01 PM EDT     1.42 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.4-0.2-1-1.5-1.8-1.6-1-0.20.611.10.80.4-0.2-0.8-1.3-1.6-1.5-1-0.30.61.21.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.