Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrollton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:59PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:08 PM EST (00:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:06AMMoonset 9:10PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 400 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 pm est this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Through 7 pm..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Waves 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 ft late.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 400 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A complex area of low pressure affects the mid atlantic region tonight through early Tuesday with strong northwesterly winds in the wake the cold front for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another low pressure system is forecast to affect the region late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrollton CDP, VA
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location: 36.97, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 130001
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
701 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move northeast from the gulf coast region this
evening, and continue tracking northeast through the carolina
coastal plain overnight. The low will push off the mid atlantic
coast on Tuesday, with a cold front slowly crossing the local
area by Tuesday night. High pressure builds over the northeast
states on Wednesday, with another area of low pressure
affecting the region on Thursday.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 400 pm est Monday...

latest analysis indicates strong sfc high pressure (>1030mb)
pushing farther off the southern new england coast with sfc low
pressure over the gulf coast region. There is also developing
coastal low pressure just off the SE us coast near the gulf
stream. Seeing a lot of convection over the gulf of mexico and
gulf coast states along with a strong wsw to SW flow aloft from
texas nm all the way to the NE conus. Often a lot of convection
in the gulf is a signal that precip amounts are overdone
downstream over the local area; however in this case the upper
trough well off to our SW is still in a neutral to slightly
positive tilt and the convection in the gulf is not racing off
to the east as it tends to do when the upper trough has already
taken on more of a negative tilt. Thus, the signal for splitting
precip and less QPF locally does not seem likely in this case.

Light rain now overspreading much of the CWA west of ches bay
and will continue to the eastern shore prior to 00z. Still,
the main event will be this evening tonight as widespread
rainfall will occur across the region later this evening into
tue morning, as low pressure and the trough aloft move newd
across the area, while a baroclinic boundary coastal front
pushes N NW from the carolinas into eastern va and the eastern
shore of md. Pw anomalies are progged to be +2 standard dev.,
and this combined with strong lift associated with the
baroclinic boundary and the low tracking over the area, expect
the rainfall to be locally heavy later this evening into tue
morning. The current storm total QPF (through Tue night) ranges
from around 1.25-2.00" (with additional rain expected with the
thu system). This is not expected to cause any flash flooding,
but could result in some river, stream, and poor drainage
flooding. This will continue to be highlighted in the hwo. There
is a minimal chc of thunder, esply over SE va NE nc later
tonight, as the surface low moves through. This is where sps
continue with a marginal risk for severe wx, the main limiting
factor being weak instability parameters while shear will be
more significant.

Temps likely remain steady overnight inland in the low-mid 40s,
and rise back into the upper 50s to mid 60s along the coast
(especially the SRN coast), as the warm sector encroaches
overnight, before falling a few degrees toward morning.

The initial low upper trough lift NE of the area Tue morning,
with moist SW flow aloft continuing ahead of an approaching cold
front. Pcpn intensity should wane as the deepest moisture and
strongest lift depart to the ne. However, pops will remain ~40%
n to ~60% SE through noon, with another wave of moisture riding
along the boundary in the aftn (with pops increasing back to
60-80%), before beginning to taper off across the NW in the late
aftn early evening. Highs on Tue will range from around 50 f nw
to the mid 60s extreme se.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
As of 400 pm est Monday...

the cold front pushes through the area Tue evening, with drier
air arriving from the nnw Tue night. Pops gradually taper off,
with some partial clearing possible across the N while remaining
mostly cloudy s. Lows will range fm the lower to mid 30s N to
the lower 40s se. Cool ~1034mb high pressure builds N of the
region on wed, with another low pressure system organizing in
the ERN gulf ahead of a trough over the lower ms valley. This
should result in partly to mostly sunny conditions n, with
partly to mostly cloudy conditions s. High temps will be well
below seasonal averages mainly in the mid to upper 40s. The next
system in the gulf then begins to lift N NE Wed night into thu,
as a potent upper low moves into the lower ms valley. Models
differ a bit on timing, the 12z 12 NAM being much quicker with
the arrival of precip moisture compared to the GFS ecmwf. Given
the amplification in the flow, think the NAM is probably too
fast so will keep pops rather low until after 06z thu, then
bring overrunning precip in from SW to NE into thu. Will have
likely to categorical pops all areas thu, with some potential
for a mix with snow sleet from roughly 09-15z Thu morning in the
nw zones. Soundings suggest just a cold rain elsewhere. Highs
thu will remain well below normal except over the SE where the
highs get into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Most of central va can
expect highs in the 40s to lower 50s, with the NW piedmont
counties only into the upper 30s lower 40s for highs.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 400 pm est Monday...

while there are subtle timing differences between the 12z 12
guidance (gfs is fastest, ECMWF cmc are slightly slower), model
consensus indicates that rain will end from SW to NE early fri
morning as the aforementioned low pressure system departs to the ne.

Have likely pops through 06z Fri tapering to slight chc-chc pops by
sunrise. Skies clear out during the day on Friday as drier air
filters into the region. The airmass directly behind the low
pressure system will not be that cold for mid-november, as forecast
highs are in the mid 50s to near 60 on fri. An area of high pressure
briefly builds into the area on Sat before moving offshore by late
sat night. Another shot of cooler air comes arrives from the NW on
Sunday as canadian high pressure builds from the midwest to the
southeast from sun-mon. Highs remain in the mid 50s NW to near 60 se
on Sat before cooling into the upper 40s-low 50s on Sun mon. Morning
lows will be in the low-mid 30s inland low 40s near the coast from
sat-sun before cooling into the upper 20s NW mid-upper 30s in far se
va NE nc on mon.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 700 pm est Monday...

a large area of moderate to occasionally heavy rain has overspread
all of the terminals as of 7 pm this evening. While CIGS remain
above ifr levels at the terminals, they will likely fall to 500-800
feet at ric between now and 02z before falling to ifr levels at sby
by around 04-06z. CIGS have already dropped to ~500 feet at phf and
will likely stay there through 12z (although CIGS may lift to MVFR
levels at times through the night).

Otherwise, the thinking has not changed much since the last update
at 18z. Therefore, am still expecting a widespread fairly long-lived
ifr lifr event for CIGS and intermittent vbsys tonight in ra +ra
(cigs should remain MVFR or better at orf ecg through the night).

There is a minimal chc of embedded tstms primarily for orf ecg from
06-12z tue. The initial area of low pressure lifts to the ne
shortly after sunrise tue. Rain diminishes in intensity by 12z
but ample moisture and mainly ifr flight restrictions are
expected at all terminals from 09-15z (and possibly lasting
through 18z at ric sby). Expect gradually improving conditions
late Tue although it may not be until Tue night for southern
va NE nc as another wave of rain tracks through during the aftn.

Conditions then improve more significantly Tue night andVFR (w dry
weather) is expected wed. Another low pressure system is likely to
impact the area late Wed night through Thu thu night, bringing a
return to ifr MVFR flight restrictions. Drier air returns
fri sat.

Marine
As of 400 pm est Monday...

afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure departing to the
northeast as low pressure organizes along the north central gulf
coast in response to a digging upper trough across the central
conus. Winds across the marine area are running between 5-10 knots
from the east but will veer to east southeast and increase to 10-15
knots later this evening as low pressure begins to approach the
area.

A complex scenario is on tap for late tonight and early Tuesday as
low pressure moves northeast across central and eastern nc and into
southeast va and the delmarva. Small craft advisories begin late
tonight for all bay and offshore zones except the york and
rappahannock rivers where lower confidence in meeting SCA criteria
exists. Models agree that a strengthening area of low pressure will
cross the area but differ in the exact strength and track of the low
pressure center which results in some significant differences in
marine impacts. The gem and GFS show an east-northeasterly low track
with more of a glancing blow to the marine area while the NAM shows
a more inland track that allows winds to increase into gale warning
territory. For this package will side with the farther right track
and hold conditions at SCA levels with the mention of occasional
gusts to gale force in the advisory wording for the relevant zones.

Seas will build quickly tonight to 4-6 feet offshore with waves in
the bay generally 2-4 feet.

Winds will back off temporarily during the late morning and
afternoon tomorrow and veer to westerly and eventually northwesterly
with the passage of the surface cold front. Cold air advection will
allow winds over the marine area to surge back into SCA range with
15-25 knots expected behind the front. Waves in the bay will run 3-4
feet while seas offshore remain 5-6 feet. Another low pressure area
is progged to affect the area for the end of the work week with
periods of wind to sca-levels and seas running 5-8 feet. Will extend
the SCA offshore through at least Wednesday evening but will refrain
from introducing new headlines for the bay until tonight's hazard
ends.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 7 pm est
Tuesday for anz634.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Tuesday for anz632-638.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 8 am est
Tuesday for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 10 am est Tuesday for anz630-
631.

Small craft advisory from 1 am Tuesday to 7 pm est Wednesday
for anz650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Lkb
short term... Lkb tmg
long term... Eri
aviation... Eri lkb
marine... Rhr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 1 mi38 min NNE 2.9 G 8 54°F 1024.8 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 6 mi38 min ENE 11 G 12 55°F 1024 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 6 mi38 min 59°F1024.4 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 7 mi38 min E 7 G 8 55°F 1024.5 hPa
44087 15 mi38 min 59°F2 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 15 mi38 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 55°F 61°F1024.1 hPa
44072 18 mi48 min ENE 1.9 G 14 54°F
44064 18 mi48 min ESE 12 G 14 56°F 1025.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 18 mi38 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 52°F 58°F1024.6 hPa
CHBV2 19 mi38 min E 12 G 13 56°F 1024 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 20 mi38 min E 12 G 14 54°F 1025.5 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi38 min E 12 G 13 56°F 1023.4 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi38 min E 6 G 8 58°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 34 mi38 min NNE 1.9 48°F 1026 hPa48°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi68 min 63°F3 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi48 min E 12 G 14 52°F 1026.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi38 min NE 11 G 12 1026.4 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA8 mi69 minE 44.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F52°F93%1025.7 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA9 mi74 minENE 55.00 miLight Rain53°F52°F99%1026.1 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA12 mi74 minNNE 34.00 miRain Fog/Mist50°F48°F96%1025.6 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi77 minENE 37.00 miRain55°F53°F93%1025.1 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi72 minN 37.00 miRain50°F47°F93%1025.4 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi73 minN 05.00 miRain53°F52°F100%1025.4 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi73 minN 07.00 miLight Rain53°F51°F96%1025.1 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi72 minE 57.00 miLight Rain54°F53°F97%1025.2 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi73 minN 02.00 miOvercast48°F48°F100%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E7NE66E11E7E8E7E5CalmE4E6
1 day agoN14
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N13N11N10N9N8N8E8NE9E8NE73N75N4CalmCalmS3
2 days agoSW6W10
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SW9W10W7W10W9NW10NW12NW10N10N7NW12NW12NW10N9NW12
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NW13N10

Tide / Current Tables for Newport News, James River, Virginia
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Newport News
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Mon -- 12:08 AM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:28 PM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:01 PM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:09 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.321.510.60.40.50.91.52.12.62.92.92.62.11.510.60.50.611.51.9

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:33 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:12 AM EST     -1.02 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:07 AM EST     0.82 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:26 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:11 PM EST     -0.98 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:08 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:34 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:43 PM EST     0.48 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.2-0.2-0.6-0.9-1-1-0.7-0.30.30.70.80.70.50.2-0.2-0.6-0.9-1-0.9-0.7-0.20.20.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.