Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrollton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:53PM Friday August 18, 2017 12:16 PM EDT (16:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:55AMMoonset 4:30PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 1001 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Rest of today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Building to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft... Subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Showers likely in the evening. A chance of tstms until early morning. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 kt...becoming N early in the afternoon, then becoming E late. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..W winds 5 kt...becoming nw late in the morning, then becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1001 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will approach from the northwest today and drop into the region tonight. The front then stalls and weakens near the mid atlantic coast through Sunday. High pressure rebuilds over the area early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrollton CDP, VA
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location: 36.97, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181545
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1145 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A warm and humid air mass remains in place across the mid-
atlantic states today on continued south flow. The next cold
front will arrive late tonight and exit the region by Saturday
morning. High pressure builds in for Saturday night through
early next week.

Near term until 8 pm this evening
Initial showers that developed early this morning are
dissipating quickly and the low stratus deck that has been
in place for most areas except along coastal areas of the
tidewater and NE nc is quickly dissipating too. As a result the
sun will be coming out and temperatures will quickly jump into
the upper 80s and continue up into the low 90s for most areas.

Ahead of the cold front, seeing lots of clear sky across WRN va
so warming should continue through the afternoon hours. With
dewpoints in the mid 70s to around 80 will see heat indices from
around 100 to 109 across the area. The highest values will be
across SE along the ches bay from the middle peninsula southward
into NE nc. So have issued a heat advisory for that area for the
rest of the afternoon.

Still looks like afternoon convection will form this afternoon
across WRN va and then head ese across the region. The 12z nam
is more enhanced with the convection so will need to monitor for
possible severe as CAPE is now forecast to between 3000 - 4000
j kg. The winds aloft are not extremely strong and the direction
shear is minimal. The mostly likely threat would be wind damage
from downburst.

Short term 8 pm this evening through Sunday
The front slowly pushes southeast early Saturday, and models
have once again trended a bit faster with the frontal passage,
allowing for a quicker end to showers Sat morning.

A strong shortwave trough sweeps across the mid-atlantic states
Saturday night, but it remains north of the area and with the
low level moisture gone, not anticipating much except some mid
level clouds. By Sunday, high pressure will be over the region
with dry and seasonable weather in place.

For temperatures, will continue to see near normal weather with
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 each day and lows in the low
to mid 70s each night except for Saturday night when the drier
air will allow temps to drop into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Sfc high pressure builds north of the area with stacked high
pressure residing off the southeast coast through Mon night.

A thermal trough develops in the lee of the appalachians for
tue Tue night, and then a cold front is expected to track
through the area on wed... Exiting the coast late Wed night.

Conditions will become increasingly more humid with each
passing day. Sfc features rather diffuse for mon, however
seabreeze boundaries with the presence of ample moisture will
keep a slight chance for showers storms in the forecast...

primarily for the aftn early evening. Thunderstorm activity
expected to become widely scattered Tue as convection develops
invof lee trough. The frontal passage Wed wed night will
provide a better focus for more organized thunderstorms to
occur. Highs mon-wed generally upper 80s to lower 90s;
low-mid 80s beaches. Lows sun-tue nights generally 70-75f.

Lows Wed night mid-upper 60s NW to 70-75f se.

Aviation 16z Friday through Tuesday
Low stratus across terminals this morning with ifr MVFR CIGS at
ric sby phf orf. Expect stratus to slowly scour out through
13-14z, with an improvement toVFR at all sites by 15-16z.

A cold front approaches the region today, with showers and
thunderstorms developing and becoming more widespread by this
evening into Saturday morning. This will bring another chance
for sub-vfr conditions late in heavier showers, mainly
ric sby phf. Confident enough to throw showers and vicinity
thunder wording in at ric sby, but will keep thunder mention
out for now at orf phf.

Outlook:VFR conditions returns later Sat through the weekend as
high pressure builds back into the region. Some early morning
fog possible both Sunday and Monday mornings.

Marine
Latest sfc analysis shows weak high pressure offshore with a cold
front over the oh valley. This front will track east towards the mid
atlc today, with southerly flow increasing ahead of the front as the
pressure gradient increases. By this aftn eveng before the fropa
conditions will be close to SCA criteria over bay due to ~15 kt
sustained winds and northern cstl wtrs due to 4 ft seas. Not
confident enough that SCA conditions will occur to issue headlines
attm. The cold front drops into the wtrs tonight, with shras tstms
psbl and winds waves seas decreasing thereafter. For sat, with the
front weakening in the vicinity, expect winds AOB 10 kt by the aftn
with 1-2 ft waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl wtrs.

Similar conditions into Sun with little change in the overall
pattern. Sub-sca conditions will continue into early next week with
weak sfc high pressure in the area.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz013>017-
030>032.

Va... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz084-089-090-
093-095>098-523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Ess mam
short term... Ess mam
long term... Bmd
aviation... Mam jao
marine... Mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 1 mi46 min SW 8 G 9.9 83°F 1013 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 6 mi46 min W 9.9 G 11 82°F 1012.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 6 mi46 min 81°F1012.9 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 7 mi46 min SSW 8 G 8.9 87°F 1012.7 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 15 mi46 min SW 5.1 G 7 87°F 82°F1012.6 hPa
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 17 mi46 min SW 7 G 9.9 85°F 80°F1012.7 hPa
44064 18 mi36 min 84°F 1012.6 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 18 mi46 min S 8 G 11 84°F 82°F1012.1 hPa
44072 18 mi36 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 84°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 20 mi46 min SW 11 G 12 83°F 1013 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi46 min SSW 7 G 13 88°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 25 mi36 min WNW 1.9 G 5.8
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi46 min S 2.9 G 4.1 80°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 34 mi46 min W 2.9 85°F 1013 hPa78°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi46 min 80°F2 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi36 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 83°F 1012.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi46 min S 9.9 G 12 1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA8 mi77 minWSW 77.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F78°F73%1013.5 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA9 mi78 minSSW 99.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F78°F80%1013.8 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA12 mi22 minSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F78°F75%1012.3 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi25 minS 710.00 miA Few Clouds91°F79°F68%1012.4 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi68 minS 810.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F78°F79%1012.5 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi41 minSW 710.00 miOvercast87°F78°F77%1013.5 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi41 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F78°F72%1012.9 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi20 minSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F78°F68%1012.6 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair88°F78°F75%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE5SW7SW7SE8SE7S6SE7S6S6S5S5S5S7S5S7S5S8S8S6S8SW9W7SW8
1 day agoNE8E6NE5E4NE5E5E5CalmSE4SE4CalmCalmSE4S4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmSW4S4
2 days agoW4NE6E6N7NE9
G18
E9E8SE7E4NW3E4NW5CalmCalmN7N5N4N6N7N6N8N10N8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Newport News, James River, Virginia
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Newport News
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:01 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:59 AM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:34 PM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20.40.81.42.12.52.62.521.40.70.200.20.71.42.22.93.23.22.92.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:13 AM EDT     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:34 AM EDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:09 PM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:59 PM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.2-1.2-0.7-0.20.40.70.70.50.1-0.3-0.8-1.3-1.5-1.3-0.9-0.20.511.110.70.4-0.1-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.