Marine Weather and Tides
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly
|Sunrise 6:22AM||Sunset 7:47PM||Monday August 20, 2018 10:03 AM CDT (15:03 UTC)||Moonrise 2:53PM||Moonset 12:19AM||Illumination 67%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Puxico, MOHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Paducah, KY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kpah 201158|
area forecast discussion
national weather service paducah ky
658 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
Issued at 658 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
updated aviation discussion for 12z tafs.
Short term (today through Wednesday night)
issued at 330 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
the primary near term concern is the potential for showers and
thunderstorms through tonight, in addition to the risk for severe
weather this afternoon and evening.
A relatively strong area of low pressure near kansas city early
this morning is forecast to slowly make its way east towards the
mississippi river by this evening, then weaken as it accelerates
northeastward into the great lakes region on Tuesday. Energy from
this low will provide the necessary forcing for ascent--acting on
a seasonably humid air mass to yield a couple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms through tonight. The first round accompanies the
passage of a warm frontal zone this morning, while the second is
forecast with the approach and passage of a cold frontal zone
this afternoon and tonight.
A band of showers and thunderstorms associated with the eastward
advancing warm frontal zone continues to make progress across
the mississippi river early this morning. While the initial band
is rapidly dissipating, new development near the mississippi river
should continue across southern illinois and western kentucky
through the remainder of the pre-dawn hours, eventually reaching
southwest indiana and the kentucky pennyrile region around
daybreak. This activity should largely shift east of the area by
mid to late morning.
While the morning convective activity will likely leave behind a
substantial amount of cloud cover, forecast models are suggestive
that some sunshine should begin to show by late morning and
afternoon, especially across the western half of the region.
Numerous short term models, including those within the SPC href
suite, develop a moderately unstable atmosphere with sbcapes of
1500-2500 j kg by mid to late afternoon. The approach of a 40-50
knot mid-level speed MAX this afternoon should trigger help to
trigger new convection within the moderately unstable air mass.
Initial development appears most favorable within a zone from
south-central into southeast missouri and eventually into
southwest illinois. Forecast 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 knots
favors multicell and supercell storm modes initially, with a
trend towards multicell clusters and lines as the activity
progresses east across the remainder of the area through the late
afternoon and evening hours. SPC has most of the forecast area in
a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Damaging wind is the primary concern, but large hail and a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out early on--particularly in southeast
missouri. A weakening trend is expected by mid evening as the
atmosphere begins to stabilize in response to the loss of diurnal
A small chance of showers and thunderstorms lingers into Tuesday
across northern and eastern sections of the forecast area in
closer proximity to the departing low. Thereafter, dry conditions
are forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday night as an expansive
dome of high pressure builds east from the plains. During this
time, the region will be situated in northwest flow between an|
upper low over the northeastern u.S. And an upper ridge over the
southern plains. So after highs in the mid 80s today, temperatures
are forecast to peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Lows should drop from the upper 60s tonight into
the upper 50s by Wednesday night, resulting in what could be the
coolest night locally since late may or early june.
Long term (Thursday through Sunday)
issued at 330 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
the medium range models ensembles were in good agreement through the
extended forecast period.
The pah forecast area will be under the influence of an area of high
surface pressure and northwesterly mid level flow by thu. Thu night
should be dry, but by early fri, showers and tstms are possible over
parts of southeastern mo and southwestern il. A tight low pressure
system will pass through the upper midwest, lowering mid level
heights here somewhat but with no surface boundary to speak of. Due
to the presence of the ridge of high pressure in the deep south,
deep moisture fetch will be limited for us. Also, it appears the
best mid level vorticity signal will mostly precede the best fetch
of moisture. Therefore, pops and QPF from Fri through Sat morning
will be limited with this system, and will be primarily in the
western and northern sections of the region. At this time, we will
limit TSTM coverage to isolated.
The remainder of the weekend should be dry for the pah forecast area
under increasing heights aloft as an expansive ridge of high
pressure begins to build over the southeastern quadrant of the
country. This ridge may continue to build even further beyond the
seven day period, possibly taking temps to well above average.
We will start out relatively cool on thu, with highs around 80, and
lows Fri morning ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s
south, and we will be back to around average levels by the weekend.
With surface dewpoints back in the lower 70s, we could flirt with
100 heat indices primarily in parts of southeastern mo by sun.
Issued at 658 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
primarilyVFR conditions are forecast through the period, although
patchy MVFR ceilings are possible during the morning. Scattered
showers remain possible across the eastern half of the area
through mid morning, so included a vcsh mention at both kevv and
kowb. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over southern missouri
this afternoon. These should impact the forecast terminals during
the late afternoon and early evening hours. Conditions could be
briefly reduced to MVFR or ifr in this activity, but did not
explicitly mention the reduction at this point due to uncertainty.
Southerly winds around 10 knots are forecast today, with gusts to
15 knots during the late morning and afternoon.
Pah watches warnings advisories
short term... Rjp
long term... Db
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|Poplar Bluff, Poplar Bluff Municipal Airport, MO||20 mi||71 min||SW 12||10.00 mi||Overcast||73°F||72°F||96%||1011.2 hPa|
Wind History from POF (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||SW||S||S||SW||SW||SW||S||SW||S||S||SW||S||SW||SW||W||Calm||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||Calm||NW||Calm|
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