Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Puxico, MO

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Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 7:47PM Monday August 20, 2018 10:03 AM CDT (15:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:53PMMoonset 12:19AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Puxico, MO
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location: 36.98, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Paducah, KY
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Fxus63 kpah 201158
afdpah
area forecast discussion
national weather service paducah ky
658 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018

Update
Issued at 658 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
updated aviation discussion for 12z tafs.

Short term (today through Wednesday night)
issued at 330 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
the primary near term concern is the potential for showers and
thunderstorms through tonight, in addition to the risk for severe
weather this afternoon and evening.

A relatively strong area of low pressure near kansas city early
this morning is forecast to slowly make its way east towards the
mississippi river by this evening, then weaken as it accelerates
northeastward into the great lakes region on Tuesday. Energy from
this low will provide the necessary forcing for ascent--acting on
a seasonably humid air mass to yield a couple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms through tonight. The first round accompanies the
passage of a warm frontal zone this morning, while the second is
forecast with the approach and passage of a cold frontal zone
this afternoon and tonight.

A band of showers and thunderstorms associated with the eastward
advancing warm frontal zone continues to make progress across
the mississippi river early this morning. While the initial band
is rapidly dissipating, new development near the mississippi river
should continue across southern illinois and western kentucky
through the remainder of the pre-dawn hours, eventually reaching
southwest indiana and the kentucky pennyrile region around
daybreak. This activity should largely shift east of the area by
mid to late morning.

While the morning convective activity will likely leave behind a
substantial amount of cloud cover, forecast models are suggestive
that some sunshine should begin to show by late morning and
afternoon, especially across the western half of the region.

Numerous short term models, including those within the SPC href
suite, develop a moderately unstable atmosphere with sbcapes of
1500-2500 j kg by mid to late afternoon. The approach of a 40-50
knot mid-level speed MAX this afternoon should trigger help to
trigger new convection within the moderately unstable air mass.

Initial development appears most favorable within a zone from
south-central into southeast missouri and eventually into
southwest illinois. Forecast 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 knots
favors multicell and supercell storm modes initially, with a
trend towards multicell clusters and lines as the activity
progresses east across the remainder of the area through the late
afternoon and evening hours. SPC has most of the forecast area in
a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Damaging wind is the primary concern, but large hail and a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out early on--particularly in southeast
missouri. A weakening trend is expected by mid evening as the
atmosphere begins to stabilize in response to the loss of diurnal
heating.

A small chance of showers and thunderstorms lingers into Tuesday
across northern and eastern sections of the forecast area in
closer proximity to the departing low. Thereafter, dry conditions
are forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday night as an expansive
dome of high pressure builds east from the plains. During this
time, the region will be situated in northwest flow between an
upper low over the northeastern u.S. And an upper ridge over the
southern plains. So after highs in the mid 80s today, temperatures
are forecast to peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Lows should drop from the upper 60s tonight into
the upper 50s by Wednesday night, resulting in what could be the
coolest night locally since late may or early june.

Long term (Thursday through Sunday)
issued at 330 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
the medium range models ensembles were in good agreement through the
extended forecast period.

The pah forecast area will be under the influence of an area of high
surface pressure and northwesterly mid level flow by thu. Thu night
should be dry, but by early fri, showers and tstms are possible over
parts of southeastern mo and southwestern il. A tight low pressure
system will pass through the upper midwest, lowering mid level
heights here somewhat but with no surface boundary to speak of. Due
to the presence of the ridge of high pressure in the deep south,
deep moisture fetch will be limited for us. Also, it appears the
best mid level vorticity signal will mostly precede the best fetch
of moisture. Therefore, pops and QPF from Fri through Sat morning
will be limited with this system, and will be primarily in the
western and northern sections of the region. At this time, we will
limit TSTM coverage to isolated.

The remainder of the weekend should be dry for the pah forecast area
under increasing heights aloft as an expansive ridge of high
pressure begins to build over the southeastern quadrant of the
country. This ridge may continue to build even further beyond the
seven day period, possibly taking temps to well above average.

We will start out relatively cool on thu, with highs around 80, and
lows Fri morning ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s
south, and we will be back to around average levels by the weekend.

With surface dewpoints back in the lower 70s, we could flirt with
100 heat indices primarily in parts of southeastern mo by sun.

Aviation
Issued at 658 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
primarilyVFR conditions are forecast through the period, although
patchy MVFR ceilings are possible during the morning. Scattered
showers remain possible across the eastern half of the area
through mid morning, so included a vcsh mention at both kevv and
kowb. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over southern missouri
this afternoon. These should impact the forecast terminals during
the late afternoon and early evening hours. Conditions could be
briefly reduced to MVFR or ifr in this activity, but did not
explicitly mention the reduction at this point due to uncertainty.

Southerly winds around 10 knots are forecast today, with gusts to
15 knots during the late morning and afternoon.

Pah watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

Mo... None.

In... None.

Ky... None.

Update... Rjp
short term... Rjp
long term... Db
aviation... Rjp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poplar Bluff, Poplar Bluff Municipal Airport, MO20 mi71 minSW 1210.00 miOvercast73°F72°F96%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from POF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm3434E4CalmSE4E5E4S3CalmE3SE5S4S7SW12
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1 day agoCalmN63CalmN5NE33N7N6NE3NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalm
2 days agoSW5S8S9SW7SW9SW10S9SW5S7S8SW5S6SW7SW5W3CalmSW4SW3SW5SW3SW4CalmNW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Paducah, KY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Paducah, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.