Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 1:53 PM   Moonset 3:06 AM

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FXUS63 KPAH 182344 AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 644 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon/evening.
Widespread damaging winds (30%) will be the prominent hazard with the main line, while large hail (15%) and isolated tornadoes (5%) may also occur.

- Much cooler Friday through the weekend, as highs/lows in the 80s/60s transition to 60s/40s. Some upper 30s are possible both weekend nights, and if skies clear/winds diminish, some frost potential exists then...with the better chance of that occurring being Sunday night.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

We are closely tracking a warm front's lift across the area, in advance of a developing and approaching broader/stronger storm system that will produce an all hazards potential severe weather event later this afternoon/evening. Soupy upper 60s surface dew points are in our south already, with lower 70s just about to enter. As the warm sector lifts this pm, the increasing moist tongue with temps rising into the 80s will help instability balloon, with 2000-3000 J/KG Available Potential Energy for Convection at most unstable in the layer.

CAMs all model active convection. Some (FV3/ARW) are a little faster and more robust, while others (NAM) are on the opposite end of that, but all agree on the main line approaching late today and blasting thru the area this evening. The FV3/ARW support an aggressive bowing of the northern structure of the line, which is a slight evolution from previous runs. The HRRR and NSSL also bow, but are more solidly split with warm sector convection out ahead, and then main line convection with the cold front's approach. We still like a basic 18-21z warm sector threat, followed by the main threat timing of the potential bowing line from 21-03z.

After fropa, storm threat will diminish though some lingering pop may survive thru the overnight. Low clouds may linger til/shortly after daybreak, after which we'll see that cooler/drier air work its way in/across the FA. We are still forecasting a transition from our 80s/60s highs/lows to 60s/40s with this airmass change, that will last thru the weekend. Some upper 30s are possible both weekend nights, with perhaps Sunday night the better chance for frost with clearing skies/diminished winds.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Scattered SHRA/TSRA could effect eastern portions of the region early this evening, before a long line of strong to severe storms sweeps quickly eastward across the entire region beginning around 01Z and likely leaving the area by 06Z. Very strong winds are likely with the main line of storms. MVFR ceilings will arrive with the line and a period of IFR ceilings may eventually develop overnight into the early morning hours.
Ceilings will lift to VFR by midday. South winds will shift to the northwest behind the line of storms and gusts 20-25kts will be possible through the remainder of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

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Paducah, KY,