Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Puxico, MO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 4:54PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 10:38 PM CST (04:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:26PMMoonset 10:54PM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Puxico, MO
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location: 36.98, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Paducah, KY
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Fxus63 kpah 150011
afdpah
area forecast discussion
national weather service paducah ky
611 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018

Update
Issued at 611 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
updated aviation discussion for 00z tafs.

Short term (tonight through Friday night)
issued at 302 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
current winter storm warning and advisories remain in effect "as
is" at this time.

Current goes-e satellite imagery showing a well developed closed
upper low near EL dorado arkansas, with significant deformation
aloft to the north and east. Even though temperatures over
arkansas range from upper 20s to lower 30s from north to south
across the state, widespread observations of snow is being
reported at this time, suggesting most of the layer aloft is at or
below freezing at this time.

Deeper layer moisture and lift advecting northward from northern
mississippi into west tennessee are within a zone of enhanced
lift, as depicted by the latest preferred rap numerical model
guidance. This zone is in a decent area for seeder-feeder ice
nucleation and will continue to work into the purchase pennyrile
region of west kentucky through sunset. As the mid-upper level low
continues to work along eastern arkansas between 6 pm to 8 pm, we
could see an increase in snowfall intensity and lowered
visibilities (1-2 statute miles) over southeast missouri purchase
area of west kentucky, into extreme southern illinois. Do not
expect much recovery in temperatures the rest of the afternoon
and actually a drop to 1-2 degrees overnight into the upper 20s
over southern illinois and southeast missouri. Expect to see these
areas remain in snow most of the night.

For southwest indiana and the pennyrile region of west kentucky,
a drop in moisture in the ice nucleation layer, along with warm
advection ahead of the low will make for a sharp west to east
gradient for snow versus wintry mix then to rain. At this point in
time, the zone of wintry mix (sleet freezing rain snow) will be
along a cadiz to henderson kentucky line, with a transition to
rain near an owensboro to elkton kentucky line.

The best forcing overnight will shift toward northern section of
southern illinois, with higher precipitation amounts expected
there through at least 5 am cst. Anticipate the best snow
accumulations between 10 pm and 4 am tonight further north into
illinois.

Could see a significant loss of moisture for any further snow and
sleet production through the mid-morning hours on Thursday as the
upper low moves close to mount vernon, il by 6 am. May still see
some deformation snow over northwest sections of southwest
illinois and southeast missouri through at least 8 am. This should
reduce the overall precipitation over the WFO pah forecast area,
with some mix possible.

Needless to say, it will be a little tricky overnight, as any
mesoscale banding in the vicinity of upper low may enhance wintry
precipitation amounts. Evening and overnight crews will monitor
for any adjustments in amounts and locations.

Should see some recovery on temperatures into the 40s on Friday,
with some slight reduction over areas with deeper snow cover still
on the ground.

Long term (Saturday through Wednesday)
issued at 302 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
currently the only pcpn forecast in the extended forecast period was
a post-cold-frontal event mainly Sun afternoon through Sun night,
driven by mid level shortwave energy moving out of the northern
rockies. The medium range models were in reasonable agreement with
the timing of the event, though the 12z GFS seemed at least 12 hours
ahead of the 00z ECMWF 12z cmc with the passage of the surface wedge
of cold air, thus making it a colder solution overall. The
initialization blend ended up with a fairly early cold FROPA on sat,
so it fits for now.

This light pcpn event may start out as a brief wintry mix sun
morning in the far northwestern edge of the pah forecast area.

Otherwise, rain can be expected during the day, moving in from
northwest to southeast. However, much of western ky may remain dry
during the daylight hours. By nightfall, as thicknesses continue to
drop behind a cold front, a transition from rain to snow is
expected, with a possible brief wintry mix in between. Snow amounts
of up to a couple of tenths are expected at this time.

In the wake of the aforementioned system, high surface pressure will
prevail under general northwesterly flow aloft. Unseasonably cool
temps are expected to continue with the coolest temps occurring on
mon.

Aviation
Issued at 611 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
a very dynamic situation will keep conditions in flux over the
next 12 hours or so as an unseasonably strong early season low
moves across the region. Conditions will deteriorate quickly this
evening where they haven't already, with MVFR ifr conditions
persisting through the night. Mainly snow is expected across
western portions of the region (kcgi kpah). This may be mixed at
times with freezing rain or drizzle due to the loss of ice
nucleation. Further east (kevv kowb), a mix of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain is expected. Precipitation should trend towards very
light snow on Thursday in the wrap-around on the back side of the
low. Winds will back from north east tonight to west southwest on
Thursday with the passage of the surface low.

Pah watches warnings advisories
Il... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst Thursday for ilz076>078-
082-083-086-087-089>094.

Winter storm warning until 6 pm cst Thursday for ilz075-080-081-
084-085-088.

Mo... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst Thursday for moz100-
107>112-114.

Winter storm warning until 6 pm cst Thursday for moz076-086-087.

In... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst Thursday for inz081-082-
085>088.

Ky... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst Thursday for kyz001>022.

Update... Rjp
short term... Smith
long term... Db
aviation... Rjp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poplar Bluff, Poplar Bluff Municipal Airport, MO20 mi46 minNNW 99.00 miOvercast28°F25°F88%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from POF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11N9N10N9N7N9NE8N7N9NE10NE10NE13
G19
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1 day agoN17
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N15N15
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N13NW9N10N11N9N8NE5N8N6N9N9N7
2 days agoCalmNE3N4NE4N5NE6NE7N6N6NE6N8--N7--N12N10
G18
--N4N7N11N15N12N15N13
G23

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Paducah, KY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Paducah, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.