Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kanab, UT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:17PM Monday April 23, 2018 3:36 AM MDT (09:36 UTC) Moonrise 12:43PMMoonset 2:06AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kanab, UT
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location: 37.11, -112.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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Fxus65 kslc 230322
afdslc
area forecast discussion
national weather service salt lake city ut
922 pm mdt Sun apr 22 2018

Synopsis A weak weather disturbance over the pacific northwest
will move east and impact mainly northern utah and southwest
wyoming late tonight through early Tuesday. High pressure aloft
will return midweek, bringing very warm temperatures to the
region.

Discussion
Antecedent conditions...

extreme drought is occurring from provo south to cedar city and
to the southeast. Severe drought is occurring surrounding the
extreme drought, in areas south of ogden and duchesne to the
arizona border. Drought conditions scale down to abnormally dry
along the idaho and wyoming border.

Big picture...

during the past 5 days, the amplified pattern over the pacific had
shifted toward being more zonal as the magnitude of the jet has
significantly decreased. Recently, with stronger jets moving into
the western pacific, the pattern is beginning to re-amplify.

Water vapor satellite shows the ridge axis has shifted east from
the four corners into western nebraska. Meanwhile the next trough
is approaching the northern rockies from the pacific northwest.

There is another ridge upstream approaching the west coast. 400-250
mdcars wind observations show a cyclonic 70-110kt jet from the
pacific northwest coast across the northern rockies. Much of the
momentum is upstream of the trough.

Local observations and trends...

00z kslc RAOB shows a dry airmass with light flow in the lower and
mid levels. 700-500mb lapse rates are fairly steep. Precipitable
water values range from 0.15"-0.25" mountains, to to 0.35"-0.55"
valleys.

A 1006mb surface cyclone is centered southeast of reno, along a
cold front which crossed into the northwest tip of utah around
00z and has made its way across a portion of northwest utah as of
this writing. Rosebud gusted 40mph with the frontal passage.

24 hour trends: 5-10f warmer across utah, and 5f cooler across
southwest idaho and northeast nevada. Dewpoint depressions are
5-15f higher (drier) across utah, and 5-10f lower (moistening)
across southwest idaho and northeast nevada.

Forecast...

return flow brought a subtle increase in mid level moisture
today, supporting diurnal instability from the uinta mountains
south to boulder summit. With very steep 700-500mb lapse rates
across the region, isolated convection developed in the
aforementioned areas. Convection in proximity of the uinta
mountains was suppressed by mid and high elevation snowpack,
though did develop over lower elevations on the slopes. This
convection should dissipate with sunset, especially south of i-70,
further from approaching dynamics.

Diurnal convection which developed in northeast nevada and
southwest idaho will likely last through the passage of the trough
into tomorrow morning, aided by increasing dynamics. Can see the
trough deepening upstream during the past 12 hours with enhanced
lift subsidence on the water vapor satellite. Dynamics will pass
to the north as indicated by height perturbations tonight and
tomorrow, as well as the upper level jet forecast to straddle the
idaho border, with utah being on the wrong end for best chance of
widespread showers.

Based on pressure tendencies and 850mb streamlines from the hrrr,
the cold front is expected to pass salt lake between 08z-10z,
through delta to near milford, utah county and southwest wyoming
by sunrise.

For the evening update, ended up lowering pops and QPF south of
ogden. Also enhanced post frontal winds based on MOS guidance and
the rosebud 40mph observation.

Previous discussion
The upper trough currently over the pacific northwest will
continue east across the northern rockies northern great basin
later tonight through Monday. Water vapor imagery this afternoon
indicates some strengthening of this trough, which the guidance
has indicated over recent model runs.

Looking at fairly decent baroclinic structure with the trough as
it moves through northern utah southwest wyoming late tonight
through Monday morning. Moisture will be a bit on the thin side,
but still anticipating scattered convection to form along and
immediately behind the near 700 mb baroclinic boundary. A 70kt jet
streak on top of the low-level boundary late tonight early Monday
may help strengthen convection enough for a few thunderstorms to
develop across far northern utah.

Rapid drying and dynamic subsidence by afternoon should end most
convection over all but the northeast mountains. Could see one
final burst of convection across southwest wyoming and the
northeast mountains late Monday night early Tuesday. The gfs, and
to some extent the ecmwf, develop a circulation center within the
trough as it enters the northern plains with the trough axis
extending west across wyoming and into extreme northern utah.

Looking at some convection forming along the trough axis, though
remaining close to the colder air aloft over wyoming. The best
chance at additional precip will remain over southwest wyoming,
with some of this activity spilling over into the uinta range in
utah. Rapid drying and subsidence during the afternoon should
bring a quick end to any remaining showers over the forecast area.

High pressure aloft will begin to work into utah late Tuesday
night Wednesday. This high will begin another warming trend which
will last beyond this short term forecast period.

Model to model consistency is lower than average through the
extended forecast today, especially toward next weekend. To start
the long term forecast period, upper level ridging will be in
place across the west. A trough will be rounding the east side of
the ridge across the far northern rockies high plains and while
model to model placement of this feature varies, much of the
guidance brings a dry, weak cold front through the state late
Wednesday.

In the wake of this system, upper level ridging amplifies across the
west as a large and cold pacific system approaches the west coast.

Very warm temperatures look likely for the period Thursday through
Friday and potentially Saturday.

While the 12z ec has started to veer closer to the operational gfs
with this upper level low crossing the west, there is still a good
deal of difference between the actual sensible weather impacts to
utah. The 12z ec solution still favors a somewhat dry cold front
crossing the state Monday, while the GFS solution would favor a
fairly wet period across northern utah next weekend.

For now, leaned toward the drier ec solution given the longwave
pattern in place with a bit of a higher precipitation forecast as a
nod to the gfs. At the very least, spring has arrived for utah.

Aviation
Light southerly winds at the slc terminal will increase
after 03z. A cold front is expected to cross the terminal 08-10z,
shifting the winds to the northwest. Any showers that move through
near and behind the front may cause gusty and erratic winds at
times.

Slc watches warnings advisories
Ut... None.

Wy... None.

Public... 10 conger kruse
aviation... Kruse
for more information from noaa's national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity
for frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
visit...

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity general afd_faqs.Php


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bryce Canyon Airport, UT42 mi43 minW 710.00 miFair33°F21°F61%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from BCE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W9W8W8W6N3Calm5SE13
G17
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S8SE5NW6NW5S4W4W4W9W6CalmW7
1 day agoW7CalmSW3W4W4NW6N53NW11
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NW14NW8NW103NW9NW6W6W7W6
2 days agoS5CalmSW6SE6N3W7NW11NW16
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NW15NW10NW9N5NW4W7N4CalmW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Salt Lake City, UT (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cedar City, UT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.