Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 3:53 PM   Moonset 4:29 AM

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FXUS66 KHNX 191930 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1230 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

1. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada this afternoon into this evening.

2. Strong northwest wind gusts are expected in the Mojave Desert Slopes this afternoon into early Saturday morning.

3. High temperatures will remain above seasonal values today through Monday.

4. A cooling trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

A weak upper wave continues to move across the southern half of California this afternoon. It is expected to produce mostly high cloudiness. The threat for thunderstorms remains from the foothills up into the higher elevations of the Sierra. The probability of thunderstorms and lightning potential remains in the 5-15% range for the higher elevations this afternoon and evening. The wave will tighten up the gradient along the slopes of the Kern County Desert later this afternoon lasting into the overnight hours. The impacts are expected to high profile vehicles and blowing dust in channeled areas.

Saturday features zonal flow for the Golden State for a fair weather day with temperatures continuing above normal. Over the central section of the Sierra mainly in the vicinity of Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Park can expect some cumulus builds in the afternoon. The convective parameters are very weak thus will keep the potential of thunderstorms out of the forecast.

Sunday through late Monday the ridge holds in over the region allowing temperatures to slide up a few degrees for the region to 10-15 degrees above normals as the norm. Monday has the best PoE values of making the 90 mark. Here are the PoE values of 90 degrees for the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert:

Merced 2% Madera 11% Fresno 36% Reedley 6% Lemoore NAS 31% Hanford 26% Visalia 26% Porterville 26% Delano 41% Bakersfield 36% Edwards AFB 36% China Lake NAF 76%

An upper level low the Gulf of Alaska will have a wave break off from it this weekend and that piece will slide southeast and form into a new upper low by Tuesday off shore. The upper low opens up on Wednesday and beings to impact the southern half of California with temperatures sliding back to near normal and the introduction of mountain showers and thunderstorms.

Next Thursday and Friday another upper low from the Panhandle of Alaska meets up with the upper trough and carves out a deep trough over the West Coast. This forms path for upper level energy to continue spill south from the land of the midnight sun into the base of the trough over the southwestern US. This keeps the risk of mountain showers going and near normal temperatures for the region. The chance of significant impactful weather is very minimal.


AVIATION
VFR. VFR cumulus this afternoon is expect along with high cloudiness. Very ISOL TS over the Sierra remains possible with probabilities less than 15% from 21Z-02Z. Kern County Desert may experience reduced visibilities with some blowing dust in the 23Z-12Z time frame.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 04/18/2024 14:51 EXPIRES: 04/19/2024 23:59 None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ338.

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San Joaquin Valley, CA,