Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Nella, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:49PM Friday December 15, 2017 3:48 PM PST (23:48 UTC) Moonrise 4:41AMMoonset 3:29PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 218 Pm Pst Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through late Saturday night...
Rest of today..W winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves around 3 ft. W swell 4 to 7 ft at 16 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves around 3 ft. W swell 3 to 6 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat night..N winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. W swell around 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell around 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon..E winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt, becoming s. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 6 ft.
PZZ500 218 Pm Pst Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... A dry cold front will bring strong gusty north winds to the waters, particularly overnight tonight and into Saturday morning, with gusty north winds persisting through Sunday. Gale force winds are likely across all outer water zones beginning late tomorrow night through at least Sunday morning. The strong and gusty winds will create very steep wind waves and fresh swell, creating very rough and hazardous seas through the majority of the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Nella, CA
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location: 37.16, -120.98     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 152159
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
159 pm pst Fri dec 15 2017

Breezy conditions likely late tonight through Sunday
morning...

Elevated fire danger particularly for higher
elevation locations for the same time...

Synopsis Dry weather will continue into next week. A mainly
dry cold front will sweep south over the area late Friday night
and early Saturday morning which then increases n-ne winds along
the ridges and peaks Saturday.

Discussion As of 2:00 pm pst Friday... Thanks to more clouds
today along with the ridge flattening out, we have seen a drop in
temperatures across the board -- generally 3 to 8 degrees
compared to Thursday. After multiple days of talking about it, we
are finally seeing a substantial pattern change as a system
approaches the west coast. Satellite clearly shows this feature
that is still expected to move through our region tonight. Still
have high confidence that any associated rainfall will be well to
our north.

The main story will be increasing winds overnight into Saturday as
the pressure gradient ramps up along with cold air advection. With
the overall flow expected to be north-to-south tomorrow, gusty
winds from the north will impact our area especially higher
elevation locations. The wind advisory remains in effect and
highlights local gusts exceeding 50 mph. Valley spots will
generally be 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Similar conditions
can be expected into early Sunday. Both the wind advisory and the
red flag warning remain in effect.

High pressure will attempt to rebuild later on Sunday and continue
on Monday before being replaced by another system that will drop
down Tuesday into Wednesday. Models have been having difficulty
with the track of this feature with most previous runs keeping it
too far to the east to bring rainfall into our cwa. However, 12z
run from both ECMWF and GFS are now trending wetter with it
positioned father to the west. In light of that, slight chance to
chance pops were added to the northern half of our region. Any
rainfall should be light -- most likely less than a tenth of an
inch.

After that point, we will enter a period of dry and cool weather
with a highly amplified ridge off the coast with a directly
northerly flow across california. No additional rainfall is
forecast at least through the 24th.

For those looking for some relief, the latest 3 and 4 week outlook
from the CPC does favor wetter than normal conditions. That would
be from december 30th to january 13.

Aviation As of 9:45 am pst Friday... For 18z tafs. Light winds
this morning will gradually give way to breezy, then gusty
northerly winds through the TAF duration. These northerly winds
will arrive as the result of a dry cold front sweeping in from
north to south. The strongest winds are anticipated late tonight
into early Sunday, with sustained winds as high as 15 to 25 kt
and gusts to 35 kt at select TAF locations (namely ksfo). Winds
aloft over mountain ridges and through gaps will also be stronger
than normal. Otherwise,VFR, with some lingering smoke and high
clouds ahead of the arriving cold front.

Moderate to high confidence.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. Light and variable winds today with a few
high clouds. Westerly winds increase tonight along a cold front,
becoming gusty after sunset. Gusts may approach 35 kts late in the
taf period. An airport weather warning for strong wind gusts may
need to be issued once confidence improves.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR. Light winds along the coast this
morning, with breezy up valley winds in the salinas valley. Winds
will turn onshore this afternoon and increase late tonight,
moreso at kmry than ksns.

Fire weather As of 2:42 am pst Friday... The fire weather watch
has been upgraded to a red flag warning from 10 pm Friday through
10 am Sunday. Offshore flow is forecast to develop behind the
front tonight into Saturday. Latest models do show some modest rh
recovery early tonight then dropping through the day and poor
recoveries Saturday night. It's fairly common to have lower rh on
night number two behind a front with developing offshore flow.

May not technically hit rh criteria for tonight, but decided to
keep fire weather concerns going given gusty winds, lack of recent rain,
very low rh (single digits) the last few nights and near record
values of ercs for the N bay mts and santa cruz diablo psas. Areas
of greatest concern will be above 1000 feet. Winds may be a tad
weaker on Saturday night, but rh recoveries worse. For what it's
worth, fire weather concerns are not that unusual for this time
of year. December 16, 2013, a wildfire broke out in big sur called
the pfeiffer fire.

Marine As of 09:36 am pst Friday... A dry cold front will sweep
over the coastal waters from north to south through the next day.

This will bring strong gusty north winds to the waters,
particularly overnight tonight and into Saturday morning, with
gusty north winds persisting through Sunday. Gale force winds are
likely across all outer water zones beginning late tomorrow night
through at least Sunday morning. The strong and gusty winds will
create very steep wind waves and fresh swell, creating very rough
and hazardous seas through the majority of the weekend.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday Sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm
sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm from 3 pm
public forecast: bell
aviation: drp
marine: drp
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 47 mi63 min WNW 1.9 60°F 1018 hPa42°F

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Merced Regional Airport, CA26 mi55 minN 03.00 miFair with Haze62°F36°F38%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from MCE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmE3E4NE3E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW4N4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW4CalmNW3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3E3E3SE3CalmSE5CalmSE3CalmS53S5
2 days agoN6NW3CalmCalmCalmNE3E3E3SW3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmNW34NW4NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Kirby Park, Elkhorn Slough, California
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Kirby Park
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Fri -- 02:14 AM PST     2.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:43 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:12 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM PST     5.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:20 PM PST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:33 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:14 PM PST     4.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
32.42.12.32.83.54.45.25.75.75.242.61.20.2-0.2-0.20.31.22.13.13.84.24.1

Tide / Current Tables for Elkhorn Slough railroad bridge, Monterery Bay, California
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Elkhorn Slough railroad bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:53 AM PST     2.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:43 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:12 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:50 AM PST     6.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:19 PM PST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:33 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:01 PM PST     4.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.22.72.52.73.34.14.95.76.26.465.13.72.10.90.40.51.122.93.74.24.34.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.