Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bethel Manor, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:21PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 3:56 AM EST (08:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:29PMMoonset 9:11AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 341 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Thursday afternoon...
Through 7 am..S winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely after midnight.
Thu..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt early in the afternoon, then becoming nw late. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft late. Rain, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 341 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure moves off the coast this morning. An area of low pressure approaches the region tonight with strong southerly flow by Thursday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Manor, VA
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location: 37.17, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230804
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
304 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A series of low pressure systems will track northeast along the
mountains today and Thursday. The associated warm front lifts
north of the region later today with the trailing cold front
crossing the area Thursday. High pressure builds in again for
the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 300 am est Wednesday...

latest msas has the arctic high well off the mid atlantic coast with
low pressure moving into il. Meanwhile, a warm front snaked it way
from the deep south north of the gom a dvlpg scndry low in ERN tx.

Models take the first low NE into the great lakes region with the
warm front slowly lifting north from the deep south. Latest data
suggests the front doesn't get this far north until closer to sunset.

Ahead of it, a return and moistening upslope flow will continue to
allow clouds to thicken up as the day progresses.

Some of the high res data showing vry light (upslope) pcpn dvlpng
across the piedmont (from avc-fvx). Already noting some echoes
aloft popping up west of dan. With temps AOB 32, still can't rule
out some vry light fz rain fz drizzle for an hour or two across
extreme WRN zones arnd 12z. Given, how low the dew points are, some
of this pcpn may ot be able to reach the ground. Thus, will keep
some frozen pcpn in the grids for now and monitor radar trends
over the next svrl hrs. Thinking here is that if any of this pcpn
does reach the ground, will be able to handle it with an sps given
little if any measurable pcpn xpctd. Otw, any rain chcs remain over
the piedmont today (generally west of i95) where low chc pops will
be maintained, dry elsewhere under cldy to mstly cldy skies. Temps
slow to rise this morn, but increasing southerly winds this aftrn
will allow temps to rise thru the 40s and 50s with the highs not
achieved until late aftrn.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
As of 300 am est Wednesday...

the warm front lifts north of the local area this evening leaving
the fa in the warm sector overnight. Meanwhile, moisture from the
second area of low pressure overspreads the region starting late in
the evening over the west then over the rest of the area after 06z.

Chc to low end likely pops this eve ramp up to high end likely and
categorical after midnight. Some mdt to lclly hvy rainfall enters
the piedmont late. Much warmer with nearly steady temps thru the
night from the mid 40s NW to mid 50s se.

The low tracks NE across the region Thu morning with the trailing
cold front crossing the area thru the day, pushing offshore by 00z
fri. Data shows a decent slug of SRN stream moisture combined with
strong lift btwn 12z-18z just ahead of the cold front. Some convective
elements noted for a band of lclly heavy downpours. Thus, added some
r+ for a few hr prd. Pcpn quickly tapers off to some light rain or
shwrs Thu aftrn west to east as the front pushes all the deep moisture
towards the coast. Mild with highs 55-60 north to 60-65 south. Can't
rule out some elevated thunder along the sern beaches in the aftrn,
but left thunder out of the fcst thinking it remains offshore closer
to the gulf stream wall. QPF arnd one inch.

Clearing and colder thurs nite as high pressure builds in from the
nw. Lows mid 20s NW to mid 30s se. Back to below normal temps fri
and Fri nite. Plenty of sunshine fri. Highs upr 30s NW to mid 40s
se. Lows Fri nite upr teens NW to upr 20s se.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 310 pm est Tuesday...

the extended looks fairly quiet at least for our region as the
main storm systems stay north or west of the area... Or well
offshore. High pressure over the area Saturday gradually shifts
ne through Sunday with the ridge axis staying in place across
the area. A weak upper disturbance moves well north of the area
later Sunday which may allow for some light precipitation
Sunday night, but given the lack of moisture will keep just a
slight chance of rain (or snow across the nw). Warm advection
again develops Monday into Tuesday as upper heights build ahead
of another great lakes low pressure system. The associated cold
front is expected to approach the area on Tuesday with chance of
rain across the west and north.

Highs over the weekend will be seasonably cool with temps in the
40s Saturday and mid 40s-lower 50s Sunday-Tuesday.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 1230 am est Wednesday...

high pres now offshore with low pres west of the mts. A warm
frnt lifts north of the local area after 12z. High level moisture
quickly overpreading the region ATTM with a mid level cloud deck
btwn 3-5k ft moving east of the mts and across the piedmont.

Vfr conditions expected thru most of the forecast period as any
moisture with the warm front is progged to stay west and north
of the TAF sites. Brought ric's CIGS down to bkn MVFR after 12z
being closer to the mid level moisture source. Any pcpn expected
to remain west thru 00z with only chc pops at ric after 03z. South
winds will increase thru out the day. Of note will be wind shear
tonight due to a strong low level jet. Expect south winds 40-50kts
at 2k ft after 00z.

Outlook...

low pressure and associated frontal boundaries will affect the
area tonight through thu. This system will likely bring more
rain and fog with ifr restrictions, especially from 06-18z 24
(thu). High pres briefly returns Thursday night... Before another
cold front sfc trough crosses the area on Fri (conditions look
to remainVFR Thu night into the weekend).

Marine
As of 300 am est Wednesday...

seasonally strong surface high pressure continues to move offshore
early this morning with winds across the marine area becoming
southerly at 5-15 knots. Waves are 1-2 feet in the bay with 2-4 foot
seas offshore.

A digging upper trough across the central portion of the country is
allowing surface low pressure to deepen across the mississippi
valley. Increasingly steep pressure gradient between the departing
high and approaching low will allow winds to increase in magnitude
through the course of the day and especially into the evening and
overnight hours tonight. Southerly winds in the bay increase to 15-
20 knots this afternoon with 20-25 knot southerly winds by this
evening offshore. Small craft advisories will begin for the bay and
northern offshore zones shortly after noon and the lower james,
currituck sound, and remaining offshore zones following suit a few
hours later. Winds and seas will increase further overnight into
Thursday as a secondary area of low pressure forms along the
trailing cold front. Winds in the bay will run 20-25 with gusts to
30 knots by Thursday morning while winds offshore increase to 25-30
with gusts to 35 knots. A few gusts could exceed 35 knots during
this period, especially across the northern offshore zones. Opted
not to issue a gale watch with this package due to the relatively
brief window for gale conditions and the less than climatologically
favored southerly wind direction, however, will continue to watch
this period closely in subsequent forecasts. Seas will build as
winds increase Thursday morning with 8-12 foot seas possible across
the northern offshore zones, slightly lower to the south where 5-9
foot seas are expected. Will have to monitor for the potential for a
high surf advisory on Thursday from roughly CAPE charles light
northward. Winds will become northwesterly behind the surface cold
front late Thursday afternoon. Cold advection behind the front
appears rather anemic with northwest winds 15-20 knots in its wake,
decreasing further Thursday evening. Seas will be slow to subside
Thursday and scas for offshore zones will likely need to be extended
into Friday to cover this threat.

High pressure builds into the region on Friday with tranquil marine
conditions in store through the upcoming weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 455 pm est Tuesday...

water levels along the ocean zones from parramore island to cape
charles light at low tide dropped to around 1.5 ft below mllw
and are now rising. Still appears likely that these same zones
will drop more than 1 foot below mllw for the next low tide
cycle occurring early Wed morning. Will be issuing a new low
water advisory from 06-10z (1 am to 5 am est) Wed morning for
these zones elsewhere, water levels should remain just above
advisory criteria during the next low tide.

Equipment
As of 300 am est Wednesday...

the kakq radar is down due to a pedestal slip ring assembly
failure. Due to the time to procure ship the needed parts, and
the repair time, the radar will remain down through at least
Friday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 am est
Thursday for anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am est
Thursday for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Thursday for anz638.

Low water advisory until 5 am est early this morning for
anz652-654.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Thursday for anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Thursday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Mrd
aviation... Mpr
marine... Rhr
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 6 mi57 min SW 8 G 9.9 33°F 1034.9 hPa (-1.6)
44072 7 mi47 min 33°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 14 mi57 min SW 5.1 G 6 32°F 1034.7 hPa (-1.5)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 14 mi57 min SSW 5.1 G 6 33°F 1034 hPa (-1.4)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 16 mi57 min 41°F1034.4 hPa (-1.5)
44087 17 mi87 min 41°F1 ft
CHBV2 19 mi57 min SSW 6 G 8.9 33°F 1033.2 hPa (-1.8)
44064 20 mi47 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 33°F 1034.3 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 20 mi57 min SSW 5.1 G 7 31°F 1034.3 hPa (-1.7)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi57 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 38°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 24 mi87 min S 1.9 30°F 1035 hPa21°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi57 min Calm G 1.9 30°F 1032.6 hPa (-2.0)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi57 min 30°F 44°F1034.2 hPa (-2.0)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi57 min S 13 G 14 1034.9 hPa (-1.5)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 48 mi57 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 31°F 31°F1033.5 hPa (-1.9)

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi63 minN 0 miOvercast31°F24°F76%1034.4 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA6 mi2 hrsS 810.00 miPartly Cloudy30°F24°F78%1034.9 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA12 mi2 hrsS 410.00 miFair31°F23°F74%1034.2 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA17 mi2 hrsSSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F23°F75%1035.1 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA17 mi82 minN 010.00 miOvercast32°F24°F75%1034.9 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA21 mi66 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy29°F24°F82%1033.8 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N5N4N5NW5N9NW6E43CalmCalmCalmCalmS5E5SE4SE3SE4S4S4SW3S6S4Calm
1 day agoN10
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2 days agoSW4S12S13
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Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:25 AM EST     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:10 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:37 AM EST     2.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:09 PM EST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:04 PM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.10.3-0.3-0.7-0.6-0.20.61.52.32.82.92.51.810.2-0.4-0.7-0.500.81.62.22.5

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.