Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bethel Manor, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:12PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 2:26 AM EDT (06:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:05PMMoonset 7:08AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 1242 Am Edt Tue May 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am edt this morning...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1242 Am Edt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front crosses the region overnight. High pressure returns Tuesday and Wednesday, then shifts off the coast late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Manor, VA
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location: 37.17, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 210559
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
159 am edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
A cold front exits the coast overnight. High pressure returns
Tuesday and Wednesday, then shifts off the coast late in the
week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 940 pm edt Monday...

last of the convection tracking through SE portion of the fa
attm... Then shifts off the coast overnight. A cold front remains
just of the fa and that front reaches the coast by late tonight.

Sw winds 5-15 mph shift to nnw as cool dry air advection takes
place. It will remain fairly breezy in the wake of the front
along the bay and coast (20 mph or so). Lows from the u50s N and
nw to the u60s se.

Short term 6 am this morning through Thursday
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

tues Wed will be much cooler and drier (even slightly below avg
for temperatures in some areas). This as high pressure centered
over the great lakes gradually builds SE into the local area by
tue aftn through Tue night, then becomes centered from the
eastern great lakes to the va coast on wed. Dry with mostly
sunny skies both Tue Wed and mostly clear Tue night. Highs
Tuesday mostly in the 70s except near lower 80s possible south
central va to interior NE nc. Dew pts will fall into the 40s n
and the lower-mid 50s s. Lows Tue night in the 50s except some
upr 40s psbl in those normally cooler locations over the
piedmont. Highs Wed upper 70s to lower 80s inland, and lower to
mid 70s near the bay and ocean.

The high shifts east Wed night and thurs allowing the start of
the next warmup. Models continue to show a NW flow upr level
flow pattern setting up that could allow for another round of
upstream convective to dive se. GFS remains most aggressive with
this, while the nam ECMWF are genly drier. Timing can be a
problem this far out so kept sonly ~20% pops in the forecast fro
late Wed night into thu. Light chc pops in for now with plenty
of time to update as necessary. Lows Wed night upr 50s- lwr 60s.

Highs thurs mid- upr 80s, upper 70s- lwr 80s near the water.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 330 pm edt Monday...

a few tstms are possible (highest chances ne) Thu night as a weak
disturbance in NW flow aloft tracks through the region. Otherwise,
strong upper-level ridging (and associated anticyclone) remains
centered over the southeast for much of the extended period while a
series of shortwaves track well to our N (from the upper midwest to
new england). As a result, very high confidence in above average
temperatures (and mostly dry conditions) from Fri through early next
week. A weak cold front may try to sneak into nrn ERN portions of
the CWA on Sat am, but no pcpn is expected with the fropa. The front
quickly washes out during the day on sat. Perhaps a brief
shower TSTM Sat night, but otherwise dry this weekend. Slight
chances for mainly aftn-evening showers tstms may return early next
week as the center of the anticyclone retreats slightly to the
southwest. Highs mainly in the low-mid 90s inland on Fri with mid
80s-around 90f near the coast. Still very warm on Sat with highs
ranging from the mid 80-low 90s (highest inland coolest over the
lower md ERN shore). Sunday may be the hottest day of the weekend
with highs will be in the mid 90s in most areas W upper 80s on the
lower ERN shore. Lows throughout the extended period will mainly in
the mid 60s-around 70f.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 200 am edt Tuesday...

a cold front is slowly pushing through the region as of 06z and
is primarily accompanied by sct-bkn mid-clouds ~10kft as
isolated showers have now pushed offshore. The wind will
initially shift to NW behind the front, and then turn nne 8-12kt
primarily after 12z, and continuing through the day with
occasional gusts to 15-20kt. Mostly clear sunny conditions are
expected once the front pushes offshore as high pressure builds
in from the nw. High pressure becomes centered N of the area
tonight, with a light NE wind under a clear sky.

High pressure remains over the region Wednesday, before sliding
offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. There is a 20-30% chc of
showers tstms Thursday aftn evening as a trough slides across
the area in NW flow aloft. Dry conditions are expected Friday
into Saturday as weak high pressure returns.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Monday...

s-sw winds 10-15 knots bay and 10-20 knots ocean will continue into
this evening, before a cold front sweeps across the waters tonight.

Fairly modest pressure rises occur behind the frontal passage, with
high res guidance still showing a surge of nnw winds in the wake of
the front late tonight early Tuesday. Winds in the bay and lower
james river will generally run 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots.

Accordingly, scas remains in effect for these areas from late
tonight through 10 am Tuesday. Waves will briefly build to 3 ft
overnight and then subside to 1-2 ft by Tuesday afternoon. Winds
offshore will also run 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots and
seas 3-4 ft in offshore flow. Winds decrease to 5-15 knots later
Tuesday into Wednesday before swinging around to the ene and then
ssw by Thursday as high pressure moves offshore and ridging aloft
builds over the southeast. There is the potential for another cold
frontal passage on Friday.

Climate
* records for today Mon 5 20:
* salisbury so far has a new record high min today if this
value stands through midnight lst (1am edt).

* site record high record high min
* richmond: 96 (1934) 71 (2018) (actual low 69)
* norfolk: 98 (1996) 73 (1996) (actual low 71)
* salisbury: 98 (1911) 70 (2018) *(actual low 71)
* eliz city: 98 (1996) 73 (2018) (actual low 71)
* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site avg 2019 value
* richmond: may 13th (sun 5 19)
* norfolk: may 16th (sun 5 19)
* salisbury: may 27th (none so far)
* eliz city: may 18th (sat 5 18)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Equipment
Kakq 88d down ufn. Apparent comms rda modem problem. Techs
notified.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
anz630>632-634-638.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Alb
short term... Lkb
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz
marine... Jdm rhr
climate... Akq
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi39 min SW 9.9 G 14 73°F1011 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 6 mi39 min WSW 12 G 13 1011.8 hPa
44072 7 mi37 min 73°F
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 14 mi45 min SSW 11 G 13 1010.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 14 mi39 min SW 7 G 8 1012 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 16 mi45 min 73°F1011.5 hPa
44087 17 mi27 min 71°F1 ft
CHBV2 19 mi45 min SW 8.9 G 13 1010.4 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 20 mi39 min SSW 7 G 11 1011.3 hPa
44064 20 mi47 min SSW 12 G 14 71°F 1011 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 21 mi39 min 72°F 79°F1009 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi45 min SW 8.9 G 11 71°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi39 min SSW 8.9 G 12 1011.1 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi57 min NW 7.8 G 7.8 72°F 71°F1009.5 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi39 min SSW 4.1 G 6 74°F1011.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi45 min W 2.9 G 5.1 1012.4 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi57 min 69°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 48 mi45 min W 1.9 G 2.9 77°F1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi33 minSW 710.00 miOvercast73°F66°F81%1011.7 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA6 mi31 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F68°F89%1012.1 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA12 mi31 minSW 410.00 miOvercast73°F67°F84%1011.5 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA17 mi88 minSSW 79.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F66°F87%1012 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA17 mi32 minW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F68°F83%1012.2 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA21 mi36 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F68°F90%1011.3 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW12SW13--SW13SW12SW10SW13SW12SW11
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1 day agoS5SE3S3CalmSW5S7S7S7SW5S8S6S7SW12SW13SW11
G18
S11SW10S7S7S13S13S11SW11SW10
2 days agoW4S4SW4W3CalmNW3N43CalmCalmE8E12E12E10E8E11E9E7E4E3S5--SE5S4

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:43 AM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:48 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.41.81.10.50.1-0.10.10.61.31.92.22.32.11.61.10.50.100.30.81.52.12.6

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.