Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bethel Manor, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:15PM Thursday May 24, 2018 7:28 PM EDT (23:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:25PMMoonset 2:15AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 700 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot late.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 700 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will remain offshore of the mid atlantic region through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Manor, VA
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location: 37.17, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 242047
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
447 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
Dry weather is expected through Friday under the influence of
high pressure off the mid-atlantic coast. Low pressure over the
gulf of mexico will gradually bring a return of moisture for
the upcoming weekend, mainly in the form of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms.

Near term through Friday
As of 330 pm edt Thursday...

sfc high pressure (1022 mb) is currently situated off the
eastern shore with a cold front now down into central nc. Drier
air (dew pts in the 50s) have made their way into much of the
area with little to no afternoon CU to speak of. The offshore
high will set the stage for a great evening. Clear and
comfortable tonight with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Modest increase in temps expected on Friday, as thicknesses
increase slightly and winds veer around to the SW as the surface
high shifts further offshore. MOS and local thickness tool
support highs into the mid to upper 80s (upr 70s low immediate
coast).

Short term Friday night through Sunday
As of 330 pm edt Thursday...

by Friday night into the weekend, we'll see the southerly flow
begin to bring more moisture back to the region as the surface
high slides even further off the coast and the deep tropical
moisture feed that is in place from the west caribbean gets
pulled farther north. Models are coming into better agreement
with respect to handling of the system currently near the
yucatan, with the GFS now trending west with the system similar
to the ecmwf. Even with the system heading more toward louisiana
we can still expect an increase in humidity locally, due to
sustained southerly flow from the gomex, and a mainly diurnal
chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday.

Highs Sat Sun in the mid 80s, except slightly cooler immediate coast.

Lows from the mid 60s to low 70s.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 330 pm edt Thursday...

still much uncertainty with both the track and amount of
moisture associated with any tropical system next week. Both the
gfs ECMWF stall the system over the gulf coast states but
differ on the amount of moisture making it this far north. Ecmwf
keeps the deepest moisture south while the GFS shows periodic
atlantic and tropical moisture drifting north along a stalled
boundary across the region.

Upshot will be to keep pops in each day, highest across the south
and greatest chc for thunder during the aftn eve Mon tue. Pops
cont Wed Thu as the tropical moisture gets caught in the
westerlies and tracks ene. Highs upr 70s-mid 80s. Lows mid 60s-
lwr 70s.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 200 pm edt Thursday...

mainly clear through sunset with light nne winds. Skc tonight
with light and variable winds.VFR conditions continue Friday
with winds becoming ssw 10 kt or less.

Outlook... Expect moisture to increase for the upcoming holiday
weekend with scattered showers t-storms possible each
afternoon evening from sat-mon. Flight restrictions will be
possible in around tstms.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Thursday...

no headlines as high pressure moves off the coast then dominates
through the holiday weekend. Nne becomes become S then SW as the
return flow sets up. Could see periodic south channeling in the ches
bay at times, but guidance consensus keeps the winds generally at or
below 15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft with 1-2 foot waves.

Hydrology
As of 330 pm edt Thursday...

a flood warning continues for the appomattox river basin. Expect
the river level will drop below flood stage by this evening. A
flood warning remains in effect for the nottoway river at
sebrell as the river will crest just above minor stage this
evening or tonight. Additional flood warnings continue for
portions of the mattaponi river and for kerr lake due to ongoing
road closure issues. See flwakq and flsakq for more details.

Tides coastal flooding
Levels should reach action stage and may approach minor flooding at
bishops head Friday night due to the south channelling.

Climate
As of 330 pm edt Thursday...

* ric monthly rainfall total through 5 23 is 10.25" which now
ranks as the wettest may on record. (breaking the old record
of 9.79" in 2016). (precipitation records date back to 1880).

* sby monthly rainfall total through 5 23 is 8.63" which
already ranks as 3rd wettest may on record (wettest is 10.38"
in 1948). (precipitation records date back to 1906).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm
short term... Jdm mam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Jdm
marine... Mpr
hydrology... Akq
tides coastal flooding... Mpr
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 6 mi41 min SSE 12 G 13 72°F 1021.1 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi41 min SSE 6 G 8.9 76°F 74°F1020.1 hPa
44072 7 mi29 min SSE 12 G 14 72°F 73°F2 ft
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 14 mi41 min NE 2.9 G 6 75°F 1020.7 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 14 mi41 min E 11 G 12
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 16 mi41 min 73°F1020.2 hPa
CHBV2 19 mi47 min SE 8 G 11 71°F 1019.8 hPa
44064 20 mi29 min SE 9.7 G 12 71°F 72°F1 ft1020.4 hPa (-0.7)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 20 mi41 min E 7 G 8 78°F 1020.1 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi41 min SE 6 G 8.9 73°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 24 mi59 min SE 2.9 86°F 1021 hPa73°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi41 min SE 7 G 9.9 71°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi29 min SSE 9.7 G 12 74°F 76°F1021.7 hPa (-2.7)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi41 min ESE 5.1 G 7 79°F 76°F1020.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi41 min ESE 8 G 8.9 1021.3 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi29 min 71°F1 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 48 mi41 min NE 6 G 7 69°F 77°F1021.1 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA6 mi33 minS 510.00 miFair74°F61°F64%1021.3 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi35 minE 610.00 miFair75°F57°F54%1020.3 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA12 mi93 minE 610.00 miFair81°F58°F46%1019.9 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA17 mi90 minESE 510.00 miA Few Clouds78°F60°F54%1020.8 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA17 mi34 minESE 410.00 miFair79°F60°F54%1020.3 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA21 mi38 minESE 610.00 miFair77°F62°F60%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7NE4NE5NE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4CalmN4NE64N7NE8
G14
N5--E11E8SE7E9E6
1 day agoSW8N7E4S5S6SW8SW5SW8SW12SW13SW11W5SW11W12W13W11
G16
W6N44N86N6E9E10
2 days agoE4SE4NE4E3E4SE3E4NE4CalmE4SE6E4CalmSE3SW7SW6S6SW8W8SW5S8SW8S10SW14
G20

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:05 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 PM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.81.41.92.32.42.21.71.20.60.200.10.61.21.82.32.62.52.21.610.5

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia
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Yorktown USCG Training Center
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:14 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:24 PM EDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.71.31.92.22.32.21.81.30.70.30.10.20.51.11.82.32.62.62.31.81.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.