Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bethel Manor, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:54PM Monday November 19, 2018 10:12 AM EST (15:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:10PMMoonset 2:46AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 1008 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain late this morning and early afternoon, then a slight chance of rain late.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late in the morning, then becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft late.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 1008 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides offshore today as a weak area of low pressure moves off the outer banks. A cold front crosses the coast Tuesday. High pressure returns Wednesday, with another cold front crossing the region Wednesday night, as strong high pressure builds across the northeast Thursday into Thursday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Manor, VA
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location: 37.17, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 191137
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
637 am est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
A weak disturbance moves across southeastern portions of the region
this morning before lifting off to the northeast by this afternoon.

A cold front approaches Tuesday. Canadian high pressure builds in
from the north Wednesday through Friday. A complex area of low
pressure affects the region next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 335 am est Monday...

high pressure is located across northeastern portions of the region
early this morning and will continue to push offshore. Patchy fog
has developed once again this morning and is locally dense in spots.

Fog will dissipate across the SE as rain showers approach the region
with any lingering fog fully dissipating after sunrise. Temperatures
range generally the mid 30s to lower 40s. Expect for temperatures to
hold fairly steady for the rest of the night as mid and high level
clouds increase in coverage.

A weak disturbance will impact far southeastern portions of the
region through this morning before lifting offshore to the northeast
by this afternoon. Highest pops are located across NE north
carolina, but there is at least the chance for light rain up into
southeast virginia. Highest precipitation chances shift offshore by
this afternoon. Expecting QPF to remain on the lighter side,
generally under 0.25", across NE north carolina. Outside the area of
precipitation, expect partly sunny skies today with mid and high
level clouds on the increase ahead of a weak cold front. High
temperatures will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s across
the area.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
As of 335 am est Monday...

a weak cold front approaches the region from the NW Monday night
into Tuesday. However, best forcing remains off to the north of the
region, so still anticipate a mainly dry frontal passage Tuesday
morning into Tuesday afternoon, and have capped pops at slight
chance Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure builds back into the
region by Tuesday night.

Temperature-wise, for Tuesday, highs are expected to make it up into
the mid 50s NW to lower 60s se. Cooler and drier air works into the
region Tuesday night and into Wednesday, which will allow for lows
to drop back into the 30s for much of the area, with highs Wednesday
in the upper 40s into the 50s, under a mainly sunny sky.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 340 pm est Sunday...

dry chilly for thanksgiving Friday as a 1036 mb high moves across
the northern tier states. Lows Wed nite 30-40. Highs thurs lwr 40s-
l50s. Lows thurs nite mid 20s-mid 30s. Highs Fri lwr 40s-mid 50s.

Models show an insitu-wedge scenario developing Friday night as the
sfc high shifts east and off the new england coast with moisture
from a SRN low moving ne. This period will have to be watched as the
moisture from a southern low overspreads the piedmont. As of right
now, the models show the wedge eroding early Sat as winds become se-
s. However, there may be a period of mixed pcpn across the nwrn most
zones as the pcpn come in Fri nite (much like the last system).

Models do differ on speed and moisture fields as a complex area of
low pressure tracks across the mid atlantic region next weekend.

Will bring chc pops in Friday night (liquid for now) with likely
pops sat. Chc to low end likely pops Sat night as the system pulls
to the ne. Lingering pops across the north Sun as upr lvl system
tracks across the region. Lows Fri nite low-mid 30s nw-mid 40s
se. Highs Sat 50 NW to mid 60s se. Lows Sat nite lwr 40s-lwr 50s.

Highs Sun mid 50s-mid 60s.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 640 am est Monday...

any patchy fog, particularly across the piedmont, will
dissipate through the morning hours.VFR conditions are likely
for today with mainly mid and higher level clouds. The only
exception will be at ecg and the far SE where light rain has
developed this morning and will last into the early afternoon,
this may lead to sub-vfr conditions in the form of low ceilings
and restricted visibilities at times. A weak, mainly dry cold
front drops across the region later tonight into Tuesday morning
bringing the possibility for short-lived flight restrictions,
particularly across the east, early Tuesday morning.

Outlook:VFR conditions returning late Tuesday afternoon
through at least thanksgiving day, as cool high pressure builds
across the region.

Marine
As of 335 am est Monday...

weak high pressure remains over the area early this
morning, with a trough off the sc coast. The wind is light this
morning and generally W or SW less than 10kt. Seas are mainly 2-3ft.

High pressure will slide offshore today, as the trough lifts NE and
becomes a weak low off the outer banks by this aftn. The wind will
remain light today, generally SW 5-10kt n, and locally easterly ~5kt
s in closer proximity to the low. Another weak area of low pressure
slides across the NRN mid-atlantic, with the wind becoming SW 10-
15kt across the area. A cold front then moves through the area
Tuesday, with the wind becoming NW 10-15kt rivers and 15-20kt
bay ocean sound, then N by Tuesday night and diminishing to 10-15kt.

A 3-6hr period of low-end SCA conditions are possible Tuesday
evening coinciding with 4-6mb 6hr pressure rises. Seas waves build
to 3-4ft 2-3ft. High pressure briefly builds into the region
Wednesday, then another cold front pushes across the coast late
Wednesday night as strong high pressure builds N of the region. Caa
is more robust with this front and will bring the potential for a
period of SCA conditions with a N wind of 15-25kt. Seas potentially
build to 4-6ft N to 5-8ft s, and waves of 2-4ft in the bay. High
pressure lingers over new england later in the week resulting in
persistent onshore flow. A low pressure system potentially impacts
the region Saturday.

Hydrology
As of 335 am est Sunday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for mattoax on the
appomattox, and sebrell on the nottoway. See flsakq for more
site- specific information

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajb mam
near term... Ajb
short term... Ajb mam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Ajb
marine... Ajz
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 6 mi43 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 1021.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi43 min SSW 5.1 G 6 51°F 55°F1020.5 hPa
44072 7 mi43 min Calm G 0 52°F
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 14 mi43 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 52°F 1020.5 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 14 mi43 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 50°F 1021.4 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 16 mi43 min 55°F1020.9 hPa
44087 17 mi43 min 55°F1 ft
CHBV2 19 mi49 min S 4.1 G 5.1 52°F 1019.7 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 20 mi43 min SSW 5.1 G 7 51°F 1020.8 hPa
44064 20 mi43 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 1020.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi43 min S 5.1 G 5.1 54°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 24 mi43 min Calm 48°F 1022 hPa46°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi43 min S 1.9 G 5.1 52°F 1019.3 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi43 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 51°F 1021.8 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi49 min S 4.1 G 5.1 51°F 56°F1020.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi43 min S 11 G 13 1021.5 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi43 min 55°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 48 mi43 min SSW 7 G 8.9 52°F 49°F1021 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA6 mi2.3 hrsVar 69.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F47°F100%1022.3 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi19 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F46°F80%1020.8 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA12 mi2.3 hrsN 010.00 miLight Drizzle46°F44°F95%1021.3 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA17 mi74 minS 36.00 miFog/Mist50°F46°F89%1021.3 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA17 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair50°F48°F94%1021.3 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA21 mi22 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast54°F50°F87%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6654S3NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5
1 day agoNE5E5CalmCalmE7E4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmN4NE7
2 days agoW12
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W12W14W10W7W7W5W6W5W3CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE5N86

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:46 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:40 AM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:05 PM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:53 PM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.71.11.72.22.52.52.31.91.510.60.50.60.91.522.32.42.31.91.40.90.4

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.