Sunday, December17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquoson, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:52PM Sunday December 17, 2017 8:39 AM EST (13:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:25AMMoonset 4:44PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 641 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Today..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 641 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides off the coast today as a frontal boundary stays north of the area. Strong low pressure remains over canada Monday into Tuesday, dragging a cold front through the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquoson city, VA
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location: 37.2, -76.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 170858
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
358 am est Sun dec 17 2017

Synopsis
High pressure along the carolina coast weakens while sliding
offshore this afternoon. The local area remains in between weak
low pressure along the gulf coast and strong low pressure over
canada Monday and Tuesday. A cold front pushes through the region
Tuesday night then stalls over the carolinas on Wednesday. Low
pressure moves along the front and pushes off the southeast
coast Wednesday night into Thursday.

Near term through tonight
Latest analysis indicating ~1027 mb sfc high pressure centered
along the sc nc coast. Aloft, a trough is moving NE through the
southern central plains, allowing ridging to amplify a bit
across the tn oh valley. Over the local area, skies are mainly
clear with some high clouds beginning to stream into the region
ahead of the ridge axis off to our west. Either light S winds
or calm conditions prevail with temperatures primarily ranging
from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

High pressure gradually weakens slides offshore later today as
a northern stream upper trough begins to dive ese from central
canada to the great lakes. Some upper level southern stream
moisture (basically the remains of the aforementioned plains
trough) will arrive ahead of this wave, which will result in
increasing mid high clouds late this morning through the aftn
and evening. The clouds will gradually thicken to ovc CIGS of
6-10 k ft by late aftn or early evening. Airmass looks too dry
for measurable rain except possible in the far NE where a slight
chc pop will be in the forecast from 21z to 03z. Expect light
southerly flow today but with fairly shallow mixing. Temperatures
will rise rapidly this morning into the upper 40s lower 50s
most areas by late morning, then steady off as the clouds filter
in. Highs look to range from around 50f over the N to the mid
50s se.

Expect a slow decrease in clouds after midnight as some moisture
persists in the 850-750 mb layer, overall becoming partly
cloudy from W to e. Lows ranging from the mid 30s NW to the low
40s se.

Short term Monday through Tuesday
High pressure remains offshore Monday as the flow aloft remains
zonal. Mostly sunny early Monday and then becoming partly sunny
as a dampening SRN stream wave pushes into the tennessee valley
by the aftn. Mild Monday with highs generally mid upper 50s n
to lower 60s s.

The 17 00z model consensus keeps this system suppressed well s
of the local area Monday night and it quickly moves offshore
Tuesday as a NRN stream wave dives across the great lakes.

Meanwhile, surface high pressure is forecast to be centered off
the southeast coast. Partly cloudy Monday night and partly to
mostly sunny Tuesday with the airmass continuing to warm.

Forecast lows Monday night range from the upper 30s to lower
40s. A wsw low level flow will make for quite warm conditions on
tue with highs well into the 60s, and have nudged highs up
slightly from previous forecast. Could potentially be close to
70 f over southern 1 2 of the area.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
The extended period will begin Tuesday night Wednesday with
progressive split zonal flow continuing to prevail over the
central and ERN conus. A NRN stream wave passes across new
england Tuesday night, which will push a cold front through the
mid- atlantic. Meanwhile, a SRN stream wave will track across
the tennessee valley Wednesday and off the carolina coast
Wednesday night. 17 00z ECMWF gfs cmc demonstrate decent
agreement with this system. However, the best forcing is progged
to be S of the local area or just brushing akq nc zones, so
pops for rain are only 20-30% across far SRN va and have been
raised to 40-50% for NE nc. Cooler behind the front Wednesday
with highs generally 50-55f (upper 40s far ne), after morning
lows in the upper 30s N to mid 40s se. Drier air pushes in from
the NW late Wednesday night into Thursday with lows Wednesday
night ranging from the low 30s N to upper 30s s, followed by
highs Thursday in the upper 40s N to low 50s s. The large scale
trend by Friday Saturday is for a trough over the great lakes
and a ridge off the southeast coast. However, model agreement is
lacking on the details, specifically with respect to the
location of the cold front between these two features. Pops are
trended toward or slightly above climo for the very end of the
forecast period, with temperatures generally remaining above
normal.

Aviation 09z Sunday through Thursday
MainlyVFR conditions are expected through the 06z TAF period,
though some patchy ground fog will be possible at ksby early
this morning and included MVFR vsbys there. High pressure
slides offshore later today, allowing for increasing mid high
clouds that will gradually lower a bit thicken late this aftn
this evening. CIGS will remainVFR however and only lower to
6-9k ft this evening. Skies clear out later tonight Mon morning.

Outlook: high pressure remains near the southeast coast Monday
through Tuesday withVFR conditions prevailing along with
occasional mid to high level clouds. Low pressure passes S of
the region late Wednesday with high pressure building north of
the region Thursday. Could see some flight restrictions across
southern va nc Wed aftn into Thu morning.

Marine
No headlines necessary with this forecast package. Latest sfc
analysis shows ~1026 mb high pressure centered over the eastern
carolinas with a stationary frontal bndry over the northern mid
atlc. This front stays north of the area today as the high slides
offshore. Weak pressure gradient over the local area will allow for
light winds (aob 10 kt) today into Mon with just 1-2 ft waves seas.

Strong low pressure over canada will drag a cold front through the
wtrs Tue night Wed morning, with low pressure passing just south of
the area Wed thu.

Climate equipment
Have gone with missing data for ric temperatures Sat dec 16th
as ASOS was unrepresentative (being too warm by 5-10 degrees).

Observers at airport will be augmenting data as necessary today.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Ajz lkb
long term... Ajz
aviation... Ajb lkb
marine... Mas
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 4 mi52 min WSW 6 G 7 40°F 1025.8 hPa
44072 6 mi50 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 40°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi52 min SSW 4.1 G 6 35°F 45°F1025.3 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 16 mi52 min SW 8 G 8.9 1025.4 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 17 mi52 min SW 4.1 G 6 37°F 1025.7 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 18 mi52 min 44°F1025.5 hPa
CHBV2 19 mi58 min SW 6 G 8 40°F 47°F1024.3 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 20 mi52 min Calm G 2.9 43°F
44064 20 mi50 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 39°F 1025.6 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 22 mi50 min S 1.9 G 3.9
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 22 mi52 min S 4.1 G 6 36°F 1025.5 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 23 mi70 min WSW 1 27°F 1026 hPa24°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 26 mi50 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 40°F 1025.4 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi52 min SSW 6 G 8 35°F
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 29 mi58 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 34°F 48°F1025.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 30 mi52 min SW 2.9 G 2.9 1025.8 hPa
44096 32 mi49 min 49°F1 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi70 min 50°F1 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi52 min Calm G 1 35°F 38°F1025.3 hPa

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA8 mi44 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds29°F27°F90%1025.7 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA8 mi46 minN 09.00 miFair30°F26°F85%1025.5 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA14 mi44 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds31°F26°F83%1025 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA19 mi1.7 hrsN 09.00 miPartly Cloudy32°F26°F79%1026.2 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA19 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair30°F28°F93%1026.1 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA23 mi49 minSSW 510.00 miFair31°F26°F82%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from LFI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W6CalmW7W10SW8SW8
G15
W9SW7SW4SW4SW5SW8SW5SW4W5W6SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE12NE10NE8N7N9N7NW7NW7NW8NW9NW7NW7NW4NW3CalmCalmW3CalmW5W6W5W4SW3W5
2 days agoSW12
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W15W10W11N13N14N10NE11NE11N12NE14NE13NE12E10E12E15NE13NE12NE14NE12NE13NE12NE13NE13

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:01 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:20 AM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:52 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:34 PM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.1-0.10.10.51.21.82.32.62.52.21.71.10.50.1-00.20.71.21.82.12.11.81.4

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia
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Yorktown USCG Training Center
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:10 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:21 AM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:51 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:42 PM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.1-0.1-00.30.91.62.22.52.52.11.60.90.3-0.1-0.2-00.411.72.12.11.91.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.