Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Scotland, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:12PM Monday May 20, 2019 11:21 AM EDT (15:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:11PMMoonset 6:22AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 647 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday morning...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 647 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure off the southeast coast this morning. A cold front crosses the region tonight. High pressure returns Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scotland CDP, VA
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location: 37.21, -76.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201024
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
624 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
A cold front crosses the area late this afternoon and evening.

High pressure returns Tuesday and Wednesday, then shifts off the
coast late in the week.

Near term through tonight
As of 315 am edt Monday...

latest msas shows the bermuda high in control this morning with an
approaching cold front still west of the mts. SW winds 10-20 mph
ahead of the front will result in another summer-like day with highs
in the upr 80s-lwr 90s, cooler at the beaches.

Latest models show the FROPA crossing the local area late aftrn and
eve accompanied by a narrow ribbon of moisture. Thus, will keep low
chc pops across the nwrn zones btwn 18z-21z with best timing for any
convection to the east toward the ches bay btwn 21z-00z, shifting
toward the coast 00z-04z. SPC now has the va NRN neck and lwr md ern
shore in a marginal svr risk. Appears that the best support for svr
today is to the ne, but can't rule out gusty winds or hvy downpours
in any storm.

The front assctd pcpn pushes offshore arnd 06z with clearing behind
it. Wind shift to the NW and CAA allows temps to drop into the upr
50s nw-mid 60s SE by 12z tue.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday
As of 315 am edt Monday...

seasons (briefly) switch back to spring tues Wed as canadian high
prsssure brings cooler temps and lwr humidity levels, but actually
not far off the normals for mid-late may. Dry with mstly sunny skies
both Tue Wed and mstly clr Tue nite. Highs tues mostly in the 70s
except nr 80 swrn most zones. Lows Tue nite in the 50s except some
upr 40s psbl in those normally cooler AWOS sites (like lku). Highs
wed 75-80 except cooler near the water.

The high shifts east Wed nite and thurs allowing the start of the
next warmup. Models now show an NW upr level flow pattern setting up
allowing for another round of upstream convective complexes to dive
se. One such system is progged to do just that late Wed nite across
the NRN half of the local area with another one progged late thurs.

Timing can be a problem this far out so kept slght chc pops in for
now with plenty of time to update as necessary. Lows Wed nite upr
50s-lwr 60s. Highs thurs mid-upr 80s, mid 70s-lwr 80s near the wtr.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
As of 315 am edt Monday...

Friday through Sunday will be the warmest days of the week. The
upper-level high will build northeast over the mid-atlantic and the
sfc flow will be out of nw. With the ridge and downsloping, highs
will may reach the mid 90s, especially in the richmond metro. Highs
will get to near 90 at the va and nc beaches and inland eastern
shore. Temperatures at night will not cool off much, lows will be
around 70.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 630 am edt Monday...

vfr conditions expected through the forecast period as high pressure
remains off the carolina coast. A cold front crosses the area late
this aftrn and eve. Models show a narrow band of moisture with this
feature, but no more than a 2-3 hr pcpn window at any one TAF site.

Although confidence is low for addng thunder attm, went ahead and
indicated a svrl hr period of bkn CU starting at ric sby into the
erly eve, shifting toward the coast at phf orf ecg arnd 00z. Expect
a gusty SW wind 15-20 kts today ahead of the apprchg cold front.

Winds shift to the NW tonite behind the fropa.

Outlook...

vfr conditions continue through Wed as high pressure is slow to move
east. A NW flow pattern sets up by the end of the week. This may lead
to sct convection movinf nw-se across the area starting late Wed nite
and thurs.

Marine
As of 315 am edt Monday...

high pressure off the mid atlantic coast and low pressure over the
great lakes is resulting in ssw winds ~15 knots across the marine
area early this morning. A few gusts to 20 knots were noted
overnight at the elevated sites of the eastern ches bay but gusts
have largely dropped below 20 knots. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft
with 2-4 ft seas offshore.

South and southwesterly flow will continue today with 10-15 knots in
the bay and 15-20 knots offshore by mid to late afternoon as a
trough cold front approaches from the nw. This front will drop south
and east tonight with the chance for a few thunderstorms ahead of
the boundary. Fairly modest pressure rises of 4-6mb in 6 hours are
shown on both the NAM and the GFS behind the frontal passage but
high res guidance continues to show a surge of northwesterly winds
in the wake of the front late tonight and early Tuesday. Winds in
the bay will generally run 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots from
roughly midnight tonight through mid morning Tuesday. Accordingly,
have issued a small craft advisory for ches bay and lower james
river from late tonight through 10am Tuesday. Waves will briefly
build to ~3 ft overnight and then subside to 1-2 ft by Tuesday
afternoon. Winds offshore will also run 15-20 knots with gusts to 25
knots with seas 3-4 ft in offshore flow. Winds decrease to 5-15
knots later Tuesday into Wednesday before swinging around to the
northeast and then south by Thursday as high pressure moves
offshore and ridging aloft builds over the southeast.

Climate
* records for Mon 5 20:
* site record high record high min
* richmond: 96 (1934) 71 (2018)
* norfolk: 98 (1996) 73 (1996)
* salisbury: 98 (1911) 70 (2018)
* eliz city: 98 (1996) 73 (2018)
* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site
* richmond: may 13th
* norfolk: may 16th
* salisbury: may 27th
* eliz city: may 18th
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 10 am edt Tuesday for
anz630>632-634-638.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Cp
aviation... Mpr
marine... Rhr
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 17 mi124 min WSW 9.9 G 21 76°F 72°F1014.4 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 24 mi124 min W 12 G 13 75°F 1015.2 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 26 mi124 min WSW 12 G 16 76°F 1015.8 hPa
44072 28 mi122 min 74°F
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 30 mi130 min SW 16 G 18 73°F 1014.5 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 31 mi130 min 72°F1015.5 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 33 mi124 min WSW 9.9 G 14 76°F 1015.4 hPa
44087 36 mi142 min 69°F2 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 38 mi142 min W 16 G 19 73°F 70°F2 ft1013 hPa
CHBV2 39 mi130 min WSW 15 G 17 73°F 1014.4 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 39 mi124 min WSW 9.9 G 14 76°F 74°F1015.5 hPa
44064 40 mi132 min W 12 G 12 73°F 1015.1 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 43 mi130 min WSW 8 G 9.9 69°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 46 mi124 min SW 12 G 16 76°F 1015.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi124 min S 8.9 G 9.9 1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA4 mi47 minW 710.00 miFair82°F69°F66%1014.9 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA10 mi86 minWSW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds80°F69°F72%1014.5 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA16 mi28 minSSW 1210.00 miFair83°F70°F65%1014.4 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA19 mi28 minSSW 8 G 169.00 miFair82°F68°F63%1014.5 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA22 mi27 minSSW 710.00 miFair81°F70°F71%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from JGG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE7SE6S9S6S6S5CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4S6CalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW7
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE5SE6E6CalmCalmCalmSE6CalmCalmCalmSE7S10SE7SE4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3Calm
2 days agoCalmSW7SW5W8
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CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Jamestown Island, James River, Virginia
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Jamestown Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:39 AM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:04 PM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.42.52.31.91.30.70.2-0.1-0.20.10.71.31.821.91.61.20.70.2-0-00.30.9

Tide / Current Tables for Hog Point, James River, Virginia
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Hog Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:56 AM EDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:43 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:21 PM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:37 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.62.52.11.50.80.3-0.1-0.20.10.71.31.82.12.11.81.30.80.3-0-00.30.81.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.