Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, MO
March 29, 2024 12:37 AM CDT (05:37 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:00 AM Sunset 7:34 PM Moonrise 11:13 PM Moonset 8:03 AM |
Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 290511 AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1211 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated fire weather conditions into early this evening and again Friday afternoon.
- Windy conditions are expected Friday with wind gusts of 40-50 mph along and west of an Osceola to Cassville line. Gusts of 30-40 mph elsewhere across the Missouri Ozarks.
- An active weather period Sunday into Monday with some strong to possibly severe storms.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Synoptic Scale Pattern and Current Conditions:
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper level trough progressing east across the Appalachian states with an upper level ridge across the northern and central Plains. This puts the Missouri Ozarks region in a northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a sprawling area of high pressure is slowly sliding southeast across the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys. We have seen a return to light southwesterly surface winds behind that surface high.
While skies are largely clear across the area, we have seen some smoke and haze from fires across northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. Temperatures are much milder today with most areas in the upper 50s and lower 60s as of 2 PM.
Late this Afternoon and Tonight:
Pleasant conditions will persist with surface winds gradually increasing and backing to southerly. The backing surface winds should take most of the near-surface smoke northward across eastern Kansas. However, the HRRR vertically integrated smoke product does still advect smoke into area tonight, especially along and north of the I-44 corridor. This is due to a strengthening southwesterly 850 mb jet stream. Thus, there will still be lingering haziness due to the smoke.
The increasing surface winds will result in a fairly large temperature gradient across the area tonight. Lows along and west of the I-49 corridor will fall into the middle and upper 40s. In contrast, the eastern Ozarks will see lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Friday:
That upper level ridge will quickly translate east into the Great Lakes with a subtle short wave trough tracking east across the northern and central Plains. Meanwhile, a strong upper level low will approach the California Coast with diffluent southwesterly flow developing across the western U.S.
Surface pressure gradients will tighten up across the region as low pressure develops across the central Plains and that surface high pressure continues to depart to our southeast. Brisk south to southwest surface winds will therefore develop Friday morning and will persist into the afternoon.
Inspection of NBM and HRRR probabilistic data reveals 60-80% probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 45 mph roughly along and west of an Osceola to Cassville line. Bufkit momentum transfer plots support these probabilities with gusts to 45 mph. This is quite attainable given that we will mix above 3000 feet AGL. We have therefore issued a Wind Advisory for this area.
Temperatures will be mild on Friday as we continue to see warm air advection in the lower and middle portions of the atmosphere. Progged 850 mb temperatures warming into the 10-12 Celsius range suggest that high temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s. We do expect an increase in high clouds throughout the day. If clouds are thinner than expected, a few locations could make a run at the upper 70s.
Meanwhile, low level moisture will begin to increase as we begin to see trajectories off of the western Gulf of Mexico. However, we think that appreciable moisture increase will not occur on Friday, especially across the eastern Ozarks. Friday therefore looks like another day that will feature elevated fire weather conditions.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
That aforementioned short wave trough will drive a surface cold front into the Ozarks from Friday night into Saturday morning. Short range ensembles then show good agreement that the front will stall Saturday afternoon and evening before beginning to lift north as a warm front Saturday night.
While moisture will be somewhat limited ahead of the front, there will be weak instability (MUCAPEs less than 500 J/kg) present from later Friday night into Saturday morning. With short term ensembles suggesting a low level jet nosing into the region, that may open the door for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. We have maintained 20-30% PoPs mainly up across central Missouri to cover this potential scenario.
Additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then remain possible (20-40% chance) from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as that front stalls and begins to lift back north. The "highest" potential for precipitation will be north of Highway 60.
Sunday into Monday:
Global ensembles continue to depict that the upper level low will dig down the California coast with a portion of the upper level low splitting off and tracking east into the northern or central Rockies on Sunday. This will effectively result in a large and positively tilted long wave trough. Ensembles then gradually progress that trough to the east on Monday with some notable timing differences.
At the surface, most ensemble scenarios develop a surface low across the central High Plains during the day on Sunday with that low then tracking east along that warm front Sunday night and Monday. Nearly all ensemble solutions then indicate a cold front overtaking a dry line and pushing through the Ozarks sometime later Monday or Monday night.
The synoptic scale pattern along with forecast instability and shear indicate the potential for severe storms across a large portion of the central U.S., especially on Monday. SPC has outlooked this general region with 15% probabilities. The CIPS and CSU Machine Learning products indicate even higher potential for severe storms.
Additionally, both the ECMWF and NAEFS ensemble systems indicate high amounts of moisture available to this system. That includes precipitable water and integrated vapor transport values in the 90- 99th percentile of 30-year climatologies. This would be supportive of heavy rainfall potential if this system is less progressive.
Interested parties should keep up with the forecast given the potential hazards associated with this system.
Once this system clears the area, a return to cooler and drier weather is on tap by the middle of next week as that trough pushes across the central U.S. We will need to keep an eye on overnight low temperatures as NBM statistical data indicates that a frost and/or freeze could be in play.
Longer range ensembles and five wave charts then indicate upper level ridging and a signal for above normal temperatures returning in the April 5-11 time frame. Towards the tail end of that time frame, five wave charts then begin to transition us to more of a southwest flow. This would open the door for more active weather.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
The TAF period will be characterized by windy VFR conditions. A strong low-level jet will move into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri around 12Z, bringing low-level wind shear to all three terminal sites. This speed max will allow for sustained southerly winds of 15-25 kt with frequent gusts.
Gusts will likely be strongest at the JLN site and may approach 40-45 kt in the afternoon. High clouds will also increase after sunrise. Winds subside somewhat after 00Z this evening.
CLIMATE
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
March 31: KSGF: 62/1967
April 1: KSGF: 62/1946
Record Precipitation:
April 1: KVIH: 0.88/1945
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1211 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated fire weather conditions into early this evening and again Friday afternoon.
- Windy conditions are expected Friday with wind gusts of 40-50 mph along and west of an Osceola to Cassville line. Gusts of 30-40 mph elsewhere across the Missouri Ozarks.
- An active weather period Sunday into Monday with some strong to possibly severe storms.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Synoptic Scale Pattern and Current Conditions:
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper level trough progressing east across the Appalachian states with an upper level ridge across the northern and central Plains. This puts the Missouri Ozarks region in a northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a sprawling area of high pressure is slowly sliding southeast across the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys. We have seen a return to light southwesterly surface winds behind that surface high.
While skies are largely clear across the area, we have seen some smoke and haze from fires across northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. Temperatures are much milder today with most areas in the upper 50s and lower 60s as of 2 PM.
Late this Afternoon and Tonight:
Pleasant conditions will persist with surface winds gradually increasing and backing to southerly. The backing surface winds should take most of the near-surface smoke northward across eastern Kansas. However, the HRRR vertically integrated smoke product does still advect smoke into area tonight, especially along and north of the I-44 corridor. This is due to a strengthening southwesterly 850 mb jet stream. Thus, there will still be lingering haziness due to the smoke.
The increasing surface winds will result in a fairly large temperature gradient across the area tonight. Lows along and west of the I-49 corridor will fall into the middle and upper 40s. In contrast, the eastern Ozarks will see lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Friday:
That upper level ridge will quickly translate east into the Great Lakes with a subtle short wave trough tracking east across the northern and central Plains. Meanwhile, a strong upper level low will approach the California Coast with diffluent southwesterly flow developing across the western U.S.
Surface pressure gradients will tighten up across the region as low pressure develops across the central Plains and that surface high pressure continues to depart to our southeast. Brisk south to southwest surface winds will therefore develop Friday morning and will persist into the afternoon.
Inspection of NBM and HRRR probabilistic data reveals 60-80% probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 45 mph roughly along and west of an Osceola to Cassville line. Bufkit momentum transfer plots support these probabilities with gusts to 45 mph. This is quite attainable given that we will mix above 3000 feet AGL. We have therefore issued a Wind Advisory for this area.
Temperatures will be mild on Friday as we continue to see warm air advection in the lower and middle portions of the atmosphere. Progged 850 mb temperatures warming into the 10-12 Celsius range suggest that high temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s. We do expect an increase in high clouds throughout the day. If clouds are thinner than expected, a few locations could make a run at the upper 70s.
Meanwhile, low level moisture will begin to increase as we begin to see trajectories off of the western Gulf of Mexico. However, we think that appreciable moisture increase will not occur on Friday, especially across the eastern Ozarks. Friday therefore looks like another day that will feature elevated fire weather conditions.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
That aforementioned short wave trough will drive a surface cold front into the Ozarks from Friday night into Saturday morning. Short range ensembles then show good agreement that the front will stall Saturday afternoon and evening before beginning to lift north as a warm front Saturday night.
While moisture will be somewhat limited ahead of the front, there will be weak instability (MUCAPEs less than 500 J/kg) present from later Friday night into Saturday morning. With short term ensembles suggesting a low level jet nosing into the region, that may open the door for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. We have maintained 20-30% PoPs mainly up across central Missouri to cover this potential scenario.
Additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then remain possible (20-40% chance) from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as that front stalls and begins to lift back north. The "highest" potential for precipitation will be north of Highway 60.
Sunday into Monday:
Global ensembles continue to depict that the upper level low will dig down the California coast with a portion of the upper level low splitting off and tracking east into the northern or central Rockies on Sunday. This will effectively result in a large and positively tilted long wave trough. Ensembles then gradually progress that trough to the east on Monday with some notable timing differences.
At the surface, most ensemble scenarios develop a surface low across the central High Plains during the day on Sunday with that low then tracking east along that warm front Sunday night and Monday. Nearly all ensemble solutions then indicate a cold front overtaking a dry line and pushing through the Ozarks sometime later Monday or Monday night.
The synoptic scale pattern along with forecast instability and shear indicate the potential for severe storms across a large portion of the central U.S., especially on Monday. SPC has outlooked this general region with 15% probabilities. The CIPS and CSU Machine Learning products indicate even higher potential for severe storms.
Additionally, both the ECMWF and NAEFS ensemble systems indicate high amounts of moisture available to this system. That includes precipitable water and integrated vapor transport values in the 90- 99th percentile of 30-year climatologies. This would be supportive of heavy rainfall potential if this system is less progressive.
Interested parties should keep up with the forecast given the potential hazards associated with this system.
Once this system clears the area, a return to cooler and drier weather is on tap by the middle of next week as that trough pushes across the central U.S. We will need to keep an eye on overnight low temperatures as NBM statistical data indicates that a frost and/or freeze could be in play.
Longer range ensembles and five wave charts then indicate upper level ridging and a signal for above normal temperatures returning in the April 5-11 time frame. Towards the tail end of that time frame, five wave charts then begin to transition us to more of a southwest flow. This would open the door for more active weather.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
The TAF period will be characterized by windy VFR conditions. A strong low-level jet will move into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri around 12Z, bringing low-level wind shear to all three terminal sites. This speed max will allow for sustained southerly winds of 15-25 kt with frequent gusts.
Gusts will likely be strongest at the JLN site and may approach 40-45 kt in the afternoon. High clouds will also increase after sunrise. Winds subside somewhat after 00Z this evening.
CLIMATE
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
March 31: KSGF: 62/1967
April 1: KSGF: 62/1946
Record Precipitation:
April 1: KVIH: 0.88/1945
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KSGF SPRINGFIELDBRANSON NATIONAL,MO | 6 sm | 45 min | S 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 30°F | 50% | 30.06 |
Springfield, MO,
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