Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheriton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:55PM Saturday February 24, 2018 3:02 AM EST (08:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:19PMMoonset 1:54AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 1244 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.... Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.... Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Areas of fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.... Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft....Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..N winds 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..N winds 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the late morning and afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 1244 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will push into the northern waters this afternoon and stall there this evening. The front then lifts back north of the waters as a warm front early Sunday morning. Another cold front moves across the waters Sunday night. High pressure builds across the waters Tuesday, and slides off the coast on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheriton, VA
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location: 37.22, -75.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240529
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1229 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will slowly lift north through the local area
overnight. High pressure prevails off the southeast coast
Saturday night and Sunday. A cold front crosses the mid-atlantic
Sunday night and settles across north carolina Monday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Warm front will be continuing to make very slow progress n
across the local area overnight. Partial clearing had occurred
into central va and across most of SRN SE va-ne nc. Across the
nne... Low CIGS and patchy fg remain. Fg will be problematic
overnight W vsbys CIGS vrb. Have raised dense fg advisory over
most of the local waters due to increasing warm moist air over
colder waters. Over land... Will hold off on any advisory... But
one may be necessary (esp over central SRN and SE va-ne nc).

Otherwise... Partly to mostly cloudy W lows m-u40s N and central
areas (including the ERN shore) and l50s across NE nc.

Short term 6 am this morning through Monday
Much of the local area will enter the warm sector Saturday,
with fog stratus lifting and scattering in the morning. The warm
front will remain in vicinity of the NRN tier of the area. A
shortwave trough rounding the top of the SE CONUS ridge could
bring some showers across the n, mainly during the aftn and
evening. Forecast pops for these areas are mainly 30-50%, with a
thin corridor of likely across the far n. High temperatures
range from the low mid 60s over the md ERN shore, to the
mid upper 70s over SRN va and NE nc. The ridge builds back nwd
Saturday night with the warm front shifting N of the area.

Remaining mild with lows in the 50s to around 60f.

A cold front approaches from the W Sunday morning. This front
should be slow to cross the area given the strength of the
ridge, so have opted for an evening frontal passage. Very warm
Sunday with high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, with
low mid 70s over the ERN shore, and locally mid upper 60s for
the md beaches. See the climate section for recored highs. The
best upper level forcing lifts well N of the area, so pops at
this time are only 30-50% ahead of and along the front.

The cold front drops across the area Sunday night and settles
over nc Monday. A secondary low pressure tracks along the front
along with some mid-level energy and this could bring a period
of light rain, mainly across the SRN va and NE nc. Cooler behind
the front, but still above normal with lows Sunday night in the
50s and highs Monday in the upper 50s to mid 60s, but these
values could fall during the day.

Long term Monday night through Friday
The cold front pushes offshore with some lingering shwrs along
the SE coast Mon eve. Pt cldy cooler. Lows in the mid 30s to mid
40s.

High pressure over the area Tue shifts offshore Tue nite and
wed. Dry thru 18z Wed with isltd shwrs psbl across the piedmont
wed aftrn as moisture returns from the sw. Highs Tue mid 50s-lwr
60s. Lows Tue nite 40-45. Highs Wed upr 50s-mid 60s.

Low pressure moves NE into the gt lakes region mid week with
the advancing warm front lifting north across the region wed
nite and trailing cold front thurs. Models show a decent
moisture feed into the systm from the SW so will carry likely
pops (shwrs) for both periods. Kept thunder out of forecast as
that will depend on the actual timing of the cold frontal
passage. Lows Wed nite mid 40s-lwr 50s. Highs Thu upr 50s-
upr60s. Chc pops Thu nite as upr level systm is slow to track
across the NRN mid atlantic region. Lows in the 40s.

Cyclonic flow Fri will usher in a drier cooler airmass but
shwrs linger across the ERN shore as the upr level systm slowly
pulls offshore. Highs in the 50s to near 60 se.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
A warm front will remain over the region early this morning.

Widespread ifr to lifr ceilings have developed along and north
of the boundary. Expect for the low stratus to persist through
through the morning hours, gradually improving from south to
north as the front lifts through the region. Ceilings are
generally expected to improve toVFR by this afternoon, but ifr
ceilings may linger across the north (including sby) for much
of the day. Visibilities have also fallen off at many of the
sites near the coast, and the patchy fog will likely spread
further inland. Expect visibilities in the 1 to 3 nm range at
all TAF sites with periods of lower visibilities, especially
near the coast. Visibilities are expected to gradually improve
later this morning. The warm front eventually lifts north of
the region by tonight early Sunday. Generally light and
variable winds overnight, becoming southwest later this
morning.

Outlook: a cold front crosses the region Sunday night into Monday
bringing the potential for ceiling and visibility restrictions along
with periods of light rain. High pressure settles over the area
Tuesday and slides offshore Wednesday.

Marine
Winds becoming ssw for the overnight... Remain blo 15 kt.

Warm moist air over the colder waters will result in continued
areas of dense fg (into Sat morning) thus the issuance of a
dense fg advisory on all (but the rivers - will have 1-3 nm
vsbys those areas)... Otherwise 1 2 nm or less.

Offshore high dominates through the weekend with s-sw winds aob
15 kts, seas averaging 2-4 ft. Could see some gusts to 20 kts
sat nite, but not frequent enuf for any headlines attm. The next
cold front crosses the waters Sun nite with a wind shift back
to the n-ne for the early part of the week. No real CAA surges
noted behind the front, so kept winds seas below SCA levels.

Climate
Very warm temperatures will return over the weekend, record
highs are listed for Sat 2 24 and Sun 2 25.

* record highs
* site: Sat 2 24... ... Sun 2 25
* ric: 82 (1985) 83 (1930)
* orf: 82 (2012) 81 (2017)
* sby: 77 (2012) 80 (1930)
* ecg: 79 (1985) 78 (2017)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Dense fog advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
ncz012>017-030>032-102.

Va... Dense fog advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
vaz087>089-092-093-095>100-523>525.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz630>634-
638-650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Ajz alb
near term... Alb
short term... Ajz mas
long term... Ajb mpr
aviation... Ajb mas
marine... Mpr
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 11 mi45 min SSE 5.1 G 5.1 45°F
44096 14 mi42 min 44°F3 ft
CHBV2 20 mi51 min SE 5.1 G 5.1 1023.2 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 21 mi33 min 44°F4 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi45 min SE 1.9 G 4.1
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 25 mi45 min S 8 G 8 1024.3 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 27 mi45 min SSW 7 G 8.9 46°F 50°F1023.8 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 29 mi45 min S 8.9 G 8.9 45°F 1024.4 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 32 mi45 min E 2.9 G 2.9 1024.1 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 34 mi45 min 49°F1024 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi45 min Calm G 1 47°F1023.5 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 37 mi45 min S 2.9 G 2.9 1023.9 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 38 mi45 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 52°F 1024.2 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 41 mi45 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 56°F 51°F1024 hPa
44089 45 mi33 min 42°F3 ft

Wind History for Kiptopeke, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA30 mi68 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist50°F49°F99%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE8NE9NE9
G15
E10NE6N4NE4NE4NE3CalmNW7NW5CalmSW3S4S4CalmSW5SW5W6SW3S3S3
1 day agoS7SW7SW5SW8SW7W3CalmSE3E3E3E6E4E4E4E8NE7NE10NE12
G19
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Tide / Current Tables for Ship Shoal Inlet, Virginia
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Ship Shoal Inlet
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Sat -- 01:54 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:33 AM EST     4.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:51 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:57 PM EST     3.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:58 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.83.64.14.13.732.11.20.50.20.61.11.82.533.232.41.60.80.1-0.20.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
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Sat -- 01:54 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:09 AM EST     0.84 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:05 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:42 AM EST     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:58 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:03 PM EST     0.48 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:47 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:35 PM EST     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.70.80.80.60.30-0.4-0.8-1-1.1-0.9-0.500.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.1-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.