Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheriton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:49PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 8:29 AM EDT (12:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:56AMMoonset 5:58PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 703 Am Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
.gale warning in effect until 1 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..E winds 30 kt with gusts to around 40 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Showers. A slight chance of tstms in the late morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W late. Seas 5 to 8 ft... Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening... Then a chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 703 Am Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure along the north carolina coast will slowly move up off the virginia coast later today. The low will weaken well offshore tonight and Wednesday. High pressure will become centered off the southeast and mid atlantic coast Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheriton, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 37.22, -75.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kakq 251125
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
725 am edt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks across the north carolina coastal plain
today... Then continues northeast along the mid atlantic coast
tonight and Wednesday. High pressure builds into the area
Thursday. A cold front stalls north of the region on Friday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts compact/deep upper low
over south carolina. Associated surface low is centered over
southeast north carolina with a coastal boundary extending
northeastward into northeast north carolina. Latest radar
depicts a band of heavy rainfall associated with theta-e
advection and marginal instability just south of the local area,
spreading into central north carolina. As the best moisture
flux and theta-e advection spreads northward ahead of the
advancing surface low, expect widespread showers to spread into
southeast virginia between 4 and 6 am. Increasing low level
winds will also result in a ramp up of east winds, with gusts of
30 to 40 mph (45 mph along the coast) early this morning.

Latest hi-res guidance indicates the heaviest precipitation
south of the region will begin to wane (decreasing rainfall
rates) as the air mass is slightly drier and more stable over
the forecast area. However, warm air advection and favorable
dynamics will still result in moderate to locally heavy rainfall
as the band lifts northward over the region through the morning
hours. Categorical pops have been maintained this morning.

Band of deepest moisture and strongest moisture flux pushes
north of the forecast area late morning/early afternoon as the
surface low lifts into the southeast portion of the local area.

Energy wrapping around the upper low and cold air advection
aloft will keep scattered to numerous showers in the forecast
through the afternoon across much of the region. Theta-e
advection and temperatures warming into the 70's across the far
southeast local area will maintain at least some marginal
instability. Given the steepening lapse rates and marginal
instability, have kept mention of thunder across the southeast.

Main threat would be locally heavy rainfall. Additional rainfall
amounts expected to range from around one half inch over the
piedmont to around 1 inch along the coast. Minor/nuisance
flooding is possible given the rainfall of late, but based on
latest 3 hour flash flood guidance and anticipated rainfall, no
headlines needed.

Easterly winds subside this morning first across the south, and
then northward through early afternoon. Wind advisories remain
in place along the immediate coast. Surface winds become north
to northeast inland this afternoon, diminishing to 5-15 mph.

Cloudy conditions will prevail (again!) for the day with a large
temperature gradient from the piedmont to the coast. Highs
generally in the upper 50's/low 60's inland to the low to mid
70's across southeast virginia and northeast north carolina.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Thursday/
Upper/surface low pressure lifts along the mid-atlantic coast
this evening, and then north of the local waters late tonight.

Wrap around moisture keeps chance to likely pops across the
northeast local area through late tonight. Given the recent
rainfall and saturated soils, have included patchy fog across
much of the region. However, cloud cover and light winds will
limit the overall coverage. Lows tonight generally in the mid to
upper 50's.

Low pressure lifts along the northeast coast Wednesday as an
upper level ridge builds over the region. Thermal soundings
indicate mid level moisture trapped beneath a strong subsidence
inversion aloft, which will help keep clouds around through the
day. However, given the late april sun, anticipate several
breaks in the clouds inland. Soundings also indicate very little
mixing, but given height rises and warming low level
temps/thicknesses, forecast highs are generally in the mid to
upper 70's. Cooler along the coast. Mild Wednesday night under a
partly clear to mostly clear sky. Lows forecast in the upper
50's to low 60's.

Ridge axis slides offshore ahead of an approaching cold front
Thursday. Increasing return flow and 850mb temps around +14 to
+16c (around +1 standard deviation) result in warm (and dry)
conditions with highs generally in the 80's. Cooler along the
coast. Plenty of sunshine expected.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/
Long term period will feature above normal temps with mainly dry wx.

For Thu night/fri, deep swly flow continues across the eastern
seaboard as an upper-level ridge then builds in through the weekend
allowing for warm temps and dry wx as most of the energy aloft will
stay N and W of the local area. At most a 20% chance of a late day
shra/tstm Fri and sat. High temps Fri through Sun in the 80s,
pushing near 90 Sat and sun. Low temps in the mid/upr 60s.

Aviation /11z Tuesday through Saturday/
Widespread ifr conditions observed over the region this morning
as low pressure lifts over eastern north carolina. Ongoing
showers over the region this morning lifts north of the region
by late morning/early afternoon as the upper level low lifts
along the southeast coast. Ifr visibilities are expected under
the heaviest showers. Areal coverage of the precipitation
decreases across the region mid to late morning, but still
expect light rain/drizzle and ifr conditions to persist.

Additional scattered to numerous showers expected across the
region this afternoon as the upper low lifts over the region. A
thunderstorm is possible across the southeast.

Easterly winds gust to 25 to 35 knots this morning, diminishing
at or below 10-15 knots this afternoon as the surface low lifts
over the region.

Outlook: precipitation lifts northeast of the region overnight,
but ifr conditions expected to persist through late tonight.

Conditions begin to slowly improve late tonight into Wednesday
as the system moves farther north. Dry weather is in store for
Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the southeast
states.

Marine
Current analysis indicating sfc low pressure centered just s/sw of
cape hatteras, with e/ne flow ongoing across the local marine
area. Thus far, winds have been at SCA levels but have remained
below gale criteria. Pressure falls have not been that
significant and therefore will be relying on mixing the stronger
winds aloft to the surface. High res models depict a short
period with gale force gusts possible for the lower bay and
southern coastal waters through mid morning, with higher winds
lingering across the northern coastal waters into early aftn.

Overall, this event looks marginal but will maintain continuity
and keep the gale warning in effect through 10 am S to 1 pm n.

Sca headlines remain in effect for the upper james/york/rappahannock
rivers where gusts up to 30 kt are expected. Seas up to 8-12
ft, with a high surf advisory remaining in effect for 8-9 ft
waves in the surf zone. No cold air surge in the wake of this
system later today and tonight, so aside from high seas
lingering for the coastal waters/mouth of bay, expect rapidly
improving conditions later today and tonight. Seas should fall
off to below 5 ft later wed/wed night. Winds begin to shift to
the S thu/fri w/ sub-sca conditions to prevail.

Tides/coastal flooding
Current tidal departures are averaging around 1.5 to 1.75 feet
in the lower bay and southern coastal waters due to ongoing
onshore flow, while departures farther N are genly 1 ft or
less. Have raised coastal flood advisories for zones adjacent to
the lower bay/james/york river, as well as the va eastern
shore. This will be for the upcoming high tide later this
morning. More uncertainty exists farther N in the bay up the
coast and have continued with another round of statements for
these areas for now. Surprisingly, despite continued onshore
flow, currents data from CAPE henry channel shows that water has
been exiting the bay at the same rate that it has been coming
in/ i.E. Piling of water into the bay has been fairly minimal
so far. Estofs and cbofs data suggest this will change later
today through tonight with the potential for water to become
trapped in the bay and for eventual minor flooding for the
mid/upper bay by tonight. May need to raise a coastal flood
advisory later today for some of these locations, but did not do
this yet because of how the winds associated with this system
have genly underperformed so far.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for mdz025.

Wind advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for mdz025.

Nc... High surf advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for ncz102.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz089-093-523>525.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for
vaz095>097-099-100.

High surf advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for vaz098.

High surf advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for vaz099-100.

Wind advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for vaz099-100.

Marine... Gale warning until 1 pm edt this afternoon for anz630>632-634-
654-656-658.

Gale warning until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz650-652.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
anz635>637.

Gale warning until 10 am edt this morning for anz633-638.

Synopsis... Mpr/sam
near term... Sam
short term... Sam
long term... Mas
aviation... Sam/jef
marine... Lkb/mas
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 11 mi71 min ENE 15 G 22 60°F
44096 14 mi68 min 56°F8 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 21 mi77 min 55°F8 ft
44064 22 mi59 min 27 G 31 60°F 1002.9 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi71 min ENE 33 G 38 60°F
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 24 mi71 min ENE 30 G 38 60°F 61°F1002.4 hPa
44072 25 mi59 min E 25 G 31 61°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 25 mi71 min ENE 26 G 31 1006.9 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 27 mi71 min NE 21 G 25 58°F 57°F1006.6 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 29 mi71 min E 28 G 34 62°F 1004.1 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 32 mi71 min ENE 28 G 32 61°F 1003.8 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 34 mi59 min E 21 G 27 59°F 1007.4 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 34 mi71 min 63°F1003 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi71 min ENE 28 G 33 62°F 62°F1004.1 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 37 mi71 min ENE 25 G 30 62°F 1002 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 38 mi71 min NNE 4.1 G 11 62°F 1003.1 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 41 mi71 min ENE 6 G 16 64°F 63°F1002 hPa
44089 45 mi59 min 53°F6 ft

Wind History for Kiptopeke, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last
24hr
NE12
G19
NE10
G17
NE10
G14
E12
G16
NE14
G20
E13
G20
NE15
G20
NE13
G21
NE16
G24
NE12
G21
NE14
G20
NE12
G18
NE12
G19
NE11
G20
E10
G16
NE9
G13
E9
G13
E11
G16
E9
G14
E9
G16
E14
G19
E15
G23
E13
G25
E16
G23
1 day
ago
NE8
G15
NE11
G16
NE10
G15
NE9
G13
NE10
G16
E12
G16
NE9
G13
NE10
G14
NE8
G13
NE7
G10
NE9
E10
G14
NE14
G18
NE8
G13
E12
G17
E11
G15
E13
G18
E14
G20
E14
G18
NE13
G21
NE15
G21
NE15
G22
NE12
G22
NE13
G21
2 days
ago
W5
E7
G10
--
E6
G11
--
E13
G16
E13
G17
NE13
G22
NE14
G24
NE13
G23
NE8
G23
NE8
G15
NE11
G16
NE9
G14
NE5
G11
NE6
G11
NE6
G11
NE4
G7
NE5
G9
NE9
G13
NE6
G9
N3
NE6
N5

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA30 mi74 minENE 21 G 272.50 miRain and Breezy61°F59°F96%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last 24hrNE16
G22
E16
G22
NE15
G22
NE14
G22
E17
G25
NE15
G22
NE16
G24
NE18
G22
NE15
G22
NE15
G21
NE15
G23
NE14
G19
NE15
G18
NE10
G19
NE10NE11NE12NE10
G16
E9
G16
NE10NE15
G22
E16
G25
E21
G27
E18
G29
1 day agoNE5NE7NE8
G15
NE9E10
G15
NE11
G14
E12E8E10NE8NE6E5NE9NE8E8E8E9E10NE10NE12
G19
NE11NE12
G17
NE14NE11
G17
2 days agoE3E7NE10NE7NE9NE7NE9NE8NE10
G14
NE7
G16
NE7NE8N6NE3NE6N3NE7N7N5NE8N4N4NE5NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Ship Shoal Inlet, Virginia
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Ship Shoal Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:43 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:59 AM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:59 PM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     5.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.6-0.3-0.5012.23.44.34.74.33.42.20.9-0.1-0.6-0.20.82.13.44.65.25.14.33.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:18 AM EDT     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:21 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:22 PM EDT     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     1.42 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.5-1-0.30.50.910.80.4-0.1-0.8-1.3-1.7-1.6-1.2-0.40.51.21.41.30.90.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.