Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheriton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:13PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 9:25 AM EDT (13:25 UTC) Moonrise 4:08AMMoonset 5:55PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 637 Am Edt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Intermittent rain or drizzle early in the morning.
Tonight..SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers likely early in the evening...then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the late evening and overnight.
Thu..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms early in the evening...then a chance of showers in the late evening and early morning.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 637 Am Edt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A frontal boundary remains nearly stationary along the north carolina - virginia border today, then lifts back north over the waters as a warm front tonight. A cold front pushes offshore Thursday. High pressure slowly builds in from the southwest Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheriton, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 37.22, -75.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kakq 241026
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
626 am edt Wed may 24 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure prevails over the area today. Unsettled
conditions return this evening through Thursday as an upper
level trough approaches from the west. Conditions improve on
Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A shortwave trough exits to the east this morning and will take
with it the last widespread batch of light rain drizzle
currently seen on the radar across eastern locales. Some
semblance of shortwave ridging develops over the mid-atlantic
today due to the combination of the departing shortwave and a
strong upper low digging across the mid-ms valley. Therefore,
after the current pcpn exits, will drop pops below 20% for most
areas into the afternoon. Low clouds will struggle to erode
despite some mid-level drying as the surface pressure gradient
will be rather nebulous resulting in weak low-level flow. The
best chc for any partial clearing will be across the md ern
shore. High temperatures will remain below average today given
the onshore flow, ranging through the mid upr 60s to low 70s,
except mid upr 70s across NE nc.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday
The upper low digs into the tennessee valley with yet another
shortwave trough lifting nne across the carolinas and mid-
atlantic this evening through the early overnight hours. A
secondary wave lifts nne across the blue ridge late this evening
through the overnight hours. Pops quickly ramp up to categorical
across the SW piedmont NE nc early Wednesday evening and
spreading NE into central SE va late evening through the early
overnight hours, before shifting to the ERN shore after
midnight. Mid-level drying and subsidence will result in pops
quickly diminishing from sw-ne late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning. There will be a chc of strong to severe
thunderstorms mainly along south of the va-460 corridor tonight
as 500mb flow strengthens to 40-50kt across far southern va and
ne nc and the presence of a surface warm front will result in a
veering low-level wind field. SPC has upgraded our far southern
counties into a slight risk where locally damaging winds and an
isolated tornado may be possible if enough instability
develops. Additional QPF tonight averages 0.30-0.60".

The upper low finally begins to lift NE across the mountains
Thursday. A strong shortwave trough will lift across the mid-
atlantic during the afternoon early evening. Once again pops
increase, to ~60-70% from the piedmont to central va to the md
ern shore, with 40-50% far se. 500mb flow of 45-55kt is
expected along with modest instability. Therefore, a few
stronger to marginally severe storms are possible. The main
threat would be wind and hail as low-level shear is minimal but
a decent cold pool aloft will exist. Additional QPF Thursday
aftn evening should average ~0.25" with locally higher amounts.

High temperatures range from the mid 70s to around 80 after
morning lows ranging through the 60s.

The upper low continues to lift NE across pa ny new england
late Thursday night into Friday. Drier conditions finally arrive
as deep layered wnw flow develops over the region. Some
lingering mid-level energy could result in some sct-bkn cu
Friday aftn. Otherwise, drier and breezy with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s, after morning lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Shortwave ridging builds over the northeast Saturday as an
upper level low tracks into the great lakes region. Weak area of
surface high pressure slides off the mid-atlantic coast
Saturday as a warm front lifts through the region. Weak
perturbations in fast westerly flow aloft will result in low end
chance pops Saturday afternoon for showers and thunderstorms.

Otherwise, warming trend continues with highs in the low to mid
80's. The warm front locates stalls over the northern mid-
atlantic region Saturday night, resulting in continued chances
for showers thunderstorms over the northern local area as
perturbations in the westerly flow track across the region. The
upper low slowly pushes across the great lakes region Sunday
with an associated cold front progged to reach the central
appalachians late Sunday. Pressure falls ahead of the
approaching front will induce a lee side thermal trough over the
region and better chances for diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms. Highs Sunday generally in the mid 80's. The cold
front reaches the local area Monday, but is expected to stall
over the region as subtropical high pressure strengthens off the
southeast coast. The weak front remains over the eastern local
area through Tuesday, with chances for diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms. Highs Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid
80's.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Light rain drizzle will exit east thru 13z with relatively dry
conditions on tap for much of the rest of today. Unfortunately,
cigs will improve very little if any through the day. Winds will
be from the northeast and east this morning then veer to the
southeast this afternoon at 10 knots or less.

Outlook... Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected Wednesday night into early Thursday morning and again
late Thursday. Aviation conditions will likely be impacted
through Thursday night. Dry weather returns Friday as weak high
pressure builds over the region. Unsettled conditions return for
the weekend when another frontal boundary affects the mid
atlantic states.

Marine
Latest msas showing frontal boundary nearly stnry just south of the
va nc line. Weak low pressure that moved along this boundary last
evening now offshore. Still a challenging marine forecast given
model projections versus the actual obs. Thus, will be making some
adjustments to SCA headlines which will be based off of current obs.

Ne winds still gusting in places to around 20 kts so plan is cont
the SCA headlines through 7 10 am across the ches bay and adjacent
coastal waters through the day for 4-5 foot seas. Seas expected to
drop below 5 ft all areas by evening. Interesting to note the 180
degree change in wind direction due to the frontal position over
anz656 (ne at CAPE henry SW at ches light).

The next in a series of low pressure systems lifts into the ohio
valley tonight with a meso-low lifting along the appalachians. Data
suggests marginal SCA conditions possible tonight for a several hour
period with this feature. Given medium confidence in a widespread
sca event and not wanting double headlines for separate events, will
hold off on any second third period headlines for now.

Sw flow increases Thursday as the low lifts north of the region,
with speeds of 10-20 knots expected. Yet another marginal SCA event
is possible Thursday night as the low tracks off the NE coast.

Tides coastal flooding
A period of onshore flow and higher astro tides (moving toward a
new moon) will result in elevated water levels through Friday.

Several tidal sites reached action stage during last nights high
tide cycle. Todays high tide cycle is forecasted to be the lower
of the upcoming 2 cycles with some sites reaching action stage.

However, tonights high tide cycle is a different story. Many sites
are forecasted to approach if not reach minor flooding levels.

Forecasted levels at both ocean city, md and jamestown, va are
high enough to warrent an advisory attm. However, confidence at
other sites along the bay and coastal waters is not high enough
for an advisory at this time so elected to hold off and let day
shift evaluate the need for either a statement or advisory.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory from 6 pm to 10 pm edt this evening for
mdz024-025.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Thursday for vaz089-090-093.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for anz634.

Flood watch from 10 am this morning to 1 pm edt this afternoon
for anz670-672-674-676-678.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz652-
654.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for anz656-
658.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for anz650.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm
short term... Ajz jdm
long term... Sam
aviation... Jdm
marine... Mpr
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 11 mi38 min 65°F
44096 14 mi35 min 62°F4 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 21 mi44 min 62°F4 ft
44064 22 mi26 min 14 G 16 61°F 64°F3 ft1006.1 hPa (+1.7)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi38 min NNE 15 G 17 60°F
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 24 mi38 min ENE 13 G 18 60°F 66°F1005.6 hPa
44072 25 mi26 min ENE 9.7 G 12 60°F 67°F1 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 25 mi38 min NE 13 G 14 1006.4 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 27 mi38 min NE 17 G 21 61°F 64°F1005.2 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 29 mi38 min NE 12 G 13 61°F 1005.3 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 32 mi38 min NE 13 G 15 61°F 1005.8 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 34 mi36 min ENE 12 G 14 61°F 1005.6 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 34 mi38 min 68°F1005.9 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi38 min ENE 8.9 G 11 61°F 68°F1005.7 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 37 mi38 min NE 12 G 13 61°F 1005.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 38 mi38 min NE 5.1 G 8.9 61°F 1005.8 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 41 mi44 min NE 5.1 G 8 61°F 68°F1005.6 hPa
44089 45 mi56 min 60°F5 ft

Wind History for Kiptopeke, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last
24hr
E9
G12
E9
G13
E11
G17
E11
G17
E12
G17
E12
G17
E11
G17
E12
G17
E9
G12
NE9
G15
NE9
G15
NE8
G13
NE12
G17
E19
G27
E12
G18
NE12
G17
NE8
G12
NE9
G12
NE6
G12
NE6
G11
NE9
G14
NE7
G12
NE8
G13
NE9
G14
1 day
ago
S13
G17
S15
S13
G16
SE8
SE9
SE14
SE17
G22
SE13
G18
N9
G12
N12
G17
N7
NW11
NW9
NW9
NW6
N5
NW9
NW3
N5
N3
NE4
NE4
E6
G11
E9
G12
2 days
ago
NE11
G14
NE10
G16
NE11
G16
E11
G19
E12
G17
E11
G15
NE11
G16
E9
G13
E11
G15
E10
G15
E8
G13
E9
G13
E9
E10
E10
E9
SE7
S10
S11
S10
S13
G16
SE11
S13
G17
S13
G16

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA30 mi31 minNNE 37.00 miOvercast60°F47°F63%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrE9
G14
E10E11E13E10
G14
NE8
G14
E11NE10E7NE5NE9NE7NE8NE8E10NE11
G17
NE6N7N4N5NE5CalmN4NE3
1 day agoS10S14
G17
S8
G17
S9S5SE3CalmCalmCalmE8N4N4CalmNW4NW7N6NW3NW5N3NE3CalmNE4NE7E8
2 days agoE13
G16
E14
G19
E8E9
G15
E11
G17
E11
G17
E10
G16
E8
G14
E6E6E7E5NE6E6E5E4SE3CalmSE4SE7S9S7S7S10
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Ship Shoal Inlet, Virginia
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Ship Shoal Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:22 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM EDT     4.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM EDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:00 PM EDT     5.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.4-0.30.41.42.63.64.34.33.72.61.40.2-0.6-0.60.21.42.74.15.25.65.24.22.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:56 AM EDT     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:19 AM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:53 PM EDT     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:41 PM EDT     1.53 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.9-1.4-1.5-1.3-0.8-00.610.90.60.1-0.5-1.1-1.6-1.7-1.5-0.80.10.91.41.51.20.80.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.