Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 7:46 PM   Moonset 5:56 AM

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FXUS66 KHNX 232108 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 208 PM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024



KEY MESSAGES
1. A cooling trend back to just below seasonal normals lasting through Friday.
2. A few thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada today and Wednesday in the afternoon and evening hours.
3. The next storm system will impact Central California Friday with mountain snow, foothills rain, and a chance of valley thunderstorms.
4. There is a high chance of advisory level winds in the Kern County mountains and desert slopes, with a Wind Advisory being issued from 5pm Wednesday through 11pm Friday.

DISCUSSION
A trough with an associated low pressure system is slowly making its way towards the California coast, and in the process will be bringing temperatures down to below normal values beginning tomorrow. Tomorrow through Friday, temperatures throughout the San Joaquin Valley will be 4-6 degrees below normal, with high temperature values in the mid 70s anticipated. After the couple systems pass through by Saturday night, temperatures will again warm back to normal values.

Lingering convection in the Sierra Nevada alongside the systems coming in are leading to increased probabilities of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Today, there is an 8-10% chance that thunderstorms will impact the Sierra Crest. Tomorrow, probabilities are higher and the spatial extent larger, with chances extending down into Tulare County. Here are probabilities for select Sierra Nevada locations seeing thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening: Tioga Pass: 26% Yosemite Valley: 21% Wawona: 18% Lake Thomas Edison: 23% Oakhurst: 15% Shaver Lake and Grant Grove: 16% Three Rivers: 13%

A second trough associated with a low pressure system will impact the region Friday through Saturday, bringing mountain snow, rain to the Sierra foothills, and another chance of thunderstorms. Snow and rain totals will be very light, with 1-3 inches of snow being the highest totals anticipated and rain totals in the foothills being up to a tenth of an inch.
Afternoon convection looks to be the biggest factor associated with this system, with probabilities a tad higher than tomorrow anticipated for Friday afternoon. Here are probabilities of thunderstorms for selected Sierra Nevada locations: Tioga Pass: 26% Yosemite Valley: 21% Wawona: 21% Lake Thomas Edison: 23% Oakhurst: 19% Shaver Lake: 20% Grant Grove: 18% Three Rivers: 15%

The passage of this second trough Friday through the weekend will also bring a chance of high wind gusts to the Kern County mountains and desert slopes. Friday night looks to be the windiest day, with probabilities higher than 85% of wind gusts higher than 47 mph, which is well within the advisory threshold.
As such, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Kern County mountains and desert slopes from 5pm Wednesday through 11pm Friday evening.

Once the trough progresses further eastward and makes its way out of the area, ridging will take its place and warm temperatures back up to normal values for this time of year as well as bring dry conditions back to the area.




AVIATION
Localized Sierra Crest MVFR conditions with afternoon thunderstorms during the 21Z-03Z time frame. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout Central California for at least the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 04/22/2024 14:16 EXPIRES: 04/23/2024 23:59 None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ331-333-334-337>339.

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