Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
York, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:14PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 3:17 PM EDT (19:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:18PMMoonset 1:05AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 144 Pm Edt Tue May 22 2018
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms early, then a chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of tstms after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 144 Pm Edt Tue May 22 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front is expected to cross the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will move over the region from Thursday into Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yorktown CDP, VA
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location: 37.23, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221902
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
302 pm edt Tue may 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front across the eastern part of the local area will move
northeast tonight. A cold front will cross the region on
Wednesday, followed by a period of dry weather Thursday and
Friday under the influence of high pressure.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across the mountains of
northern va WV in association with the subtle short wave over the
ohio valley. Best flow aloft generally remains just north of the
area, but given the strong instability and marginal deep layer shear
profile of 25-30kt, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for
the northern part of the forecast area generally north of richmond.

The best chance for severe weather would likely be across the far
north (caroline louisa counties through the northern neck) due to
the better kinematics, however overall the best severe threat seems
to be north of the area. Main concern could be another period of
locally heavy rainfall with storms possibly training across the
north this evening. These storms should diminish relatively quickly
after sunset due to loss of daytime heating.

Meanwhile, storms have also developed across the far south in
association with a weak surface trough. These are not expected to be
severe, but again, given the high precipitable water values of
around 1.75 inches, heavy rain is expected.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

the surface front over the ohio valley will slowly move through the
area on Wednesday. Models suggest the front will take pretty much
the entire day to move through the region, and as a result much of
the southern half of the local area will remain south of the front
through the afternoon. This should allow for thunderstorms to once
again develop along the front in the afternoon. Winds aloft are only
marginal for severe storms in the afternoon with only about 20-25 kt
of shear during the afternoon. Could not rule out some line segments
with gusty winds but organized severe unlikely. After the front
passes through Wed evening, expect dry and seasonable weather thu
into Friday.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 320 pm edt Monday...

a strong surface ridge and northwest flow aloft with the upper
ridge axis to the west over the mississippi valley will provide
dry weather with moderate temperatures for the beginning of the
extended forecast. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s Friday and
the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows in the mid to
upper 60s Friday night. But the upper ridge will erode through
the holiday weekend with a gradual increase in moisture as it
appears that another area of low pressure will form in the
northeastern gulf of mexico by Sunday and push more tropical
moisture northward into the region. This could allow for more
showers and tropical downpours for Sunday and again on Monday.

The big model difference in the models is the handling of a
backdoor cold front between the 12z GFS and ECMWF with the gfs
pushing the front south through the area and the ECMWF keeping
the boundary well north of the area. In either case, the chance
for showers and some possibly heavy rainfall exist for the
second half of the holiday weekend. If the GFS is right with the
front Monday could be a damp cool rainy day while the ecmwf
would lead to more periodic showers with some breaks. At this
time of year, seems more likely the for the front to hang north
of the area. So have kept the temperatures up more in the low to
mid 80s for Sunday and Monday.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

mostlyVFR conditions expected this afternoon, although localized
ifr possible early this afternoon at ecg with thunderstorms.

Otherwise, another round of showers and thunderstorms possible at
ric and sby late this afternoon and this evening as the storms
currently on the mountains move eastward. Localized ifr possible
especially at ric, but timing is difficult. These should diminish
this evening due to loss of daytime heating.VFR expected overnight
into Wednesday, although additional storms possible across the far
south late Wed morning into Wed afternoon.

Outlook... The cold front moves through Wednesday Wed evening with
high pressure building in for Thu fri.VFR conditions expected
beyond Wednesday.

Marine
As of 715 am edt Tuesday...

latest obs reflect a light e-se flow across the waters this morning.

The latest surface analysis reveals weak frontal boundary oriented
just S SW of the waters at sunrise. Expect surface ridge to the
south across the carolinas will nudge front back north across
the waters later today, slowly lifting back north across the
local area from late morning through the afternoon, with surface
winds to veer around to the s-sw behind the boundary. Pressure
gradient tightens slightly, but remains weak and therefore
expect winds to remain no more than 10-15 kt. Seas remain ~2 to
3 feet on SE swell of ~6-8 seconds W waves 1 to 2 feet. Models
continue to develop some more scattered convection along the
returning front across lower bay and central southern waters
this afternoon, gradually diminishing into the evening.

Additional showers and storms are possible over northern waters
by late afternoon into the evening.

S-sw flow persists Tuesday night. Winds do nudge upward slightly
over southern waters, as pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead
of next front. However, conditions should remain predominately sub-
sca (~15kt lower bay and southern coastal waters). Weak surface cold
front crosses the region on Wednesday. However, given the typical
late-spring pattern in place, cool air push behind the front is
minimal, and little more than a post-frontal wind shift to the w-nw
is expected late Wednesday into Thursday morning. High pressure
builds into the area Thursday through Friday, leading to developing
lift n-ne flow and generally tranquil marine conditions into the
start of the holiday weekend.

Hydrology
As of 625 am edt Tuesday...

flood warning continues for the appomattox river basin. Mattoax
is now forecast to reach moderate flooding by late tonight early
Wednesday morning. Warning has been dropped at stony creek,
with river falling below flood stage earlier this morning.

Additional flood warnings continue for the chickahominy,
mattaponi rivers, as well as the pocomoke river in md. (allowed
south anna pamunkey river to expire). See flwakq or flsakq for
more details.

Climate
As of 145 am edt Tuesday...

* ric monthly rainfall total through 5 21 remains at 8.84"
(already ranks as 5th wettest may on record). (precipitation
records date back to 1880)
* sby monthly rainfall total through 5 21 remains at 8.52"
(already ranks as 3rd wettest may on record). (precipitation
records date back to 1906)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mrd
near term... Mrd
short term... Mrd
long term... Ess
aviation... Mrd
marine... Mam
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 1 mi48 min WSW 8 G 12 78°F 73°F1017.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 8 mi48 min NW 1 G 1.9 77°F 1018.2 hPa
44072 13 mi38 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 72°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 17 mi48 min WSW 1.9 83°F 1019 hPa75°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 19 mi48 min SSW 8 G 9.9 77°F 1018.1 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 20 mi48 min W 7 G 8
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 22 mi48 min 73°F1017.6 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 25 mi48 min SW 6 G 8 81°F 1017.7 hPa
CHBV2 26 mi48 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 1017 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 27 mi38 min S 7.8 G 7.8 72°F 1020.3 hPa
44064 27 mi38 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 71°F 1017.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 28 mi48 min SSE 2.9 G 2.9 72°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi48 min SSE 6 G 7 1018.3 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 33 mi48 min SSW 5.1 G 6 80°F 73°F1017.6 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 34 mi48 min E 5.1 G 7 72°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 47 mi48 min 69°F2 ft

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi24 minWSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F70°F67%1017.1 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA9 mi82 minWNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F71°F75%1017.9 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA11 mi23 minW 610.00 miFair82°F68°F62%1017.6 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA13 mi82 minNW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F71°F74%1018.9 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi79 minVar 59.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F69°F69%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E10E9E10E4SE4NE4E3E4SE3E4NE4CalmE4SE6E4CalmSE3SW7SW6S6SW8W8SW5
1 day agoW14SW10SW8SW12SW7SW8SW6SW6SW6SW7SW6SW6SW4W5W4SW4NW3N4NE13E11NE10E11E11E12
2 days agoSE7--S8S12S12S12S11SW12SW13SW10SW10SW13SW13SW11SW14SW14SW14SW9SW13SW11SW11SW12SW14SW13
G20

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown, York River, Virginia
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Yorktown
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:52 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:11 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:29 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:36 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.62.12.52.62.421.40.80.30.10.10.51.11.72.22.42.42.11.61.10.50.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Penniman Spit, York River, Virginia
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Penniman Spit
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:53 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:02 PM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:18 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.21.82.42.62.62.31.81.10.60.100.20.71.31.92.42.52.421.40.90.40.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.