Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
York, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:19PM Friday March 22, 2019 7:55 AM EDT (11:55 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 656 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt early this afternoon, then increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers early this afternoon. Scattered showers late.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. Scattered showers early in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Rain likely.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves around 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ600 656 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure moving away to the north will deepen further today as it moves into new england. High pressure begins to build in this evening and becomes centered overhead by Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yorktown CDP, VA
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location: 37.23, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221120
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
720 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
Potent surface low pressure will lift toward new england today,
as surface high pressure builds to the west. A cold front will
push across the area today. High pressure will rebuild over the
area for the weekend, with dry conditions expected to return to
the local area.

Near term through tonight
As of 320 am edt Friday...

early morning analysis reveals rapidly deepening ~992mb surface
low pressure sliding from the delaware bay toward coastal nj.

Aloft, the parent upper low is pushing offshore of the
northeast upper mid-atlantic coast this morning. To the south,
a compact area of low pressure is scooting offshore of the
carolina coast early this morning, with some very light showers
now over the gulf stream. Temperatures early this morning are
largely in the 30s, though a few readings around 50 low 50s are
noted over nc zones. Some spotty light rain lingers over md
counties for a few more hours, but otherwise partial clearing
that has ensued inland over SW zones will reach the coast by
mid-morning. Becoming mainly sunny all zones by mid to late
morning behind the departing system. However, do expect clouds
to move back in this afternoon as one last trailing shortwave
will follow fast flow aloft and dive e-se across the area late
today, with the attendant sfc front to cross the area this
afternoon into this evening. To no one's surprise... Cams are a
bit more bullish with areal coverage of showers this aftn, and
have therefore nudged rain chances upward slightly. Have gone
with high end chc pop (40-50%) over md va northern neck zones
for some scattered showers this afternoon, mainly north of ric
to sby, flanked by a slight chc mainly along and north of
us-460.

Other forecast issue for the day will be the wind. Strong high
pressure will build across the upper midwest great lakes today,
as deepening low pressure slides into new england. Resultant
w-nw winds have already become gusty this morning, and will tick
up a bit further late this morning and this afternoon. While
winds do come up just shy of wind advisory criteria, we will
continue to carry mention in the hwo. NW winds will gust to
25-35 mph inland, 30-40 mph near the coast. Highs today in the
mid to upper 50s, to low 60s central and southern zones.

Front slides offshore early tonight, with quick clearing this
evening. Remaining breezy early, though expect winds decouple
late especially inland. However, this should prevent temps from
falling toward the cooler end of the guidance envelope (met).

This will average out with lows in the 30s (though some upper
20s possible in typically cooler sheltered rural areas inland).

Short term Saturday through Monday
As of 350 am edt Friday...

sfc hi pres and dry wx settle over the local area for the
weekend (though breezy Sat along the coast). Highs Sat in the
l50s at the coast in va-md to the u50s around 60 f inland. Lows
sat night 30-35f inland to the l40s right along the coast in se
va- NE nc. Surface high slides offshore for Sunday, with return
flow bringing an even milder day, even after a chilly start.

Highs Sun in the m-u50s near the bay and on the ERN shore to the
u60s- around 70f elsewhere.

Sfc hi pres will shift off the SE CONUS coast Sun evening then
remain off the coast through mon. Meanwhile... Lo pres and its
associated cold front will be starting to take shape gather
moisture from the oh valley to the lower ms valley. Still mild
sun night-mon W a chc of shras returning by Mon afternoon (esp
n and W portions).

Sfc hi pres will shift farther off the SE CONUS coast sun
evening then remain off the coast through mon. Meanwhile,
southern stream system and its associated cold front will be
starting to take shape gather moisture from the oh valley to the
lower ms valley. Remaining mild Sun night- mon. Continue to
favor the quicker timing given flatting more progressive upper
flow. Therefore, will continue to mention a chc of shras
returning by Mon afternoon and Monday evening (esp N and w
portions). Remaining mild for Monday with highs in the 60s to
near 70.

Long term Monday night through Thursday
As of 225 pm edt Thursday...

the cold front will be pushing S through the area Mon evening
into Tue morning W a trailing area of lo pres tracking by to
the S as colder sfc hi pres builds SE out of canada. That low
tracks off the lower mid-atlantic coast Tue afternoon.

Maintained pops to 50-70% (for ra) across much of the fa mon
night into Tue morning then taper the pops down from NW to se
tue afternoon evening. Dry cool wx expected Tue night- wed
(though breezy windy... ESP at the coast). Milder and remaining
dry thu.

Lows Sun night in the m-u40s. Highs Mon from 60-65f near the
bay and on the ERN shore to the u60s-l70s inland. Lows Mon night
in the u30s N to 45-50f se. Highs Tue in the m-u40s... Except
l50s in far SE va-ne nc. Lows Tue night from the u20s-l30s N and
w to the 30s far se. Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s E to the l-m50s
inland. Highs Thu from the 50s at the coast to l60s inland.

Aviation 11z Friday through Tuesday
As of 720 am edt Friday...

vfr conditions have returned over much of the area this morning,
as deepening area of low pressure will continue to track nne
from the DELMARVA to just offshore of the nj coast by sunrise
this morning. A short-lived regression back to MVFR possible at
ksby through ~14z, though the gradual clearing trend will
continue across area terminals. The wind will be W 10-15kt with
gusts to 20-25kt on the back- side of the low.

A potent upper trough will tracks across the region today with
a W wind of 15-20kt and gusts to 25-30kt. Bkn-ovc CIGS ~6-8kft
are expected during the aftn at ric sby, with sct- bkn clouds
~6-8kft at phf orf ecg. There is a minimal chc of showers,
mainly from ric-sby, and there could be some brief gs at sby,
but have held out of the TAF for now.

Outlook: high pressure builds into the region from the nw
late tonight into Saturday, and then slides offshore Sunday. A
nw wind will continue Saturday and then become SW Sunday. A
strong cold front approaches from the NW Monday, and crosses the
area Monday night, with high pressure building in from the n
Tuesday. There is a potential for degraded flight conditions
Monday night into early Tuesday.

Marine
As of 350 am edt Friday...

busy marine forecast this morning with strong westerly winds in the
wake of low pressure moving northward overnight. This low will
deepen further today over new england as high pressure begins to
build in from the north and west.

Winds across the northern half of the bay are quite strong this
morning with sustained winds 20-30 knots with gusts 35-40 knots.

Thus, have upgraded the previous gale watch over our northern bay
zone to a gale warning with this package. Elsewhere in the southern
bay winds are not quite as strong with 20-25 knots and gusts to 30
knots. Waves are running 3-5 feet in the bay with 5-9 foot seas
offshore. Small craft advisories remain in effect for all bay and
river zones through Saturday morning. Offshore, winds range from 15-
20 knots across the south to 20-30 knots over the northern waters. A
gale warning remains in effect for points north of CAPE charles
light. Seas are beginning to come down a bit with offshore flow but
will remain well into SCA territory with 5-7 feet across the north
and 4-6 feet prevalent over the southern waters.

Expect there will be a relative decrease in winds late this morning
into the afternoon hours as the gradient temporarily slackens.

However, a secondary shortwave trough aloft will pass just to our
north this evening with an accompanying area of cold air spilling
into the region. The CAA surge combined with the steep pressure
gradient will result in restrengthening of wnw winds this evening
and overnight, especially across the northern bay and offshore zones
where winds will increase to 25-30 knots with gust 35-40 knots.

Elsewhere, strong SCA conditions and headlines will continue for the
rivers, lower bay, currituck sound and offshore zones outside of the
gale warning area. Waves in the bay tonight will generally run 3-5
feet with seas offshore 5-7 feet.

Conditions begin to improve by Saturday afternoon with decreasing
winds and waves seas as high pressure builds closer to the area.

Marine conditions will be much improved Sunday with high pressure
overhead. The next system nears the area Monday with modest south
and southwesterly flow preceding it. A strong cold front is forecast
to cross the region late Monday into Tuesday with strong northerly
winds in its wake.

Hydrology
Flood warnings have been issued for the rivanna river at
palmyra, and for the meherrin river at lawrenceville. No
additional sites are forecast to reach flood stage at this time,
but substantial rises are still expected over mainstem rivers
during the next 24-36 hours.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for anz635-636-
638.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Saturday for anz637.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Saturday for anz631-632-
634-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Saturday for anz633.

Gale warning until 6 am edt Saturday for anz630.

Gale warning until 11 am edt Saturday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Alb
aviation... Ajz mam
marine... Rhr
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 1 mi38 min WSW 11 G 17 47°F 49°F1002.8 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 8 mi38 min WNW 14 G 16 48°F 1003.5 hPa
44072 13 mi36 min 47°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 17 mi86 min WSW 5.1 46°F 1004 hPa40°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 19 mi44 min W 18 G 20 47°F 1003.7 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 20 mi44 min W 17 G 21 48°F 1002.3 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 22 mi44 min 50°F1003.2 hPa
44087 23 mi56 min 47°F2 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 25 mi38 min W 9.9 G 13 47°F 1003.5 hPa
CHBV2 26 mi44 min W 19 G 21 48°F 1001.8 hPa
44064 27 mi36 min WNW 18 G 21 47°F 1002 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 27 mi32 min NW 18 G 19 47°F 47°F1001.5 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 28 mi38 min WNW 17 G 21
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 33 mi44 min W 8 G 12 47°F 52°F1003.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi38 min W 22 G 25 1002.9 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 34 mi38 min W 14 G 22 48°F 1001.5 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 47 mi56 min 47°F4 ft

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi62 minW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F37°F71%1003.4 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA9 mi2 hrsW 9 G 1610.00 miFair47°F39°F75%1002.7 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA11 mi81 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F42°F87%1003.7 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA13 mi2 hrsW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds47°F40°F79%1003.3 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi1.9 hrsW 12 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy48°F39°F71%1003.5 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE8E9E13NE10NE9NE10NE10NE9NE9NE7NE8NE7NE7NE5NE4NE4NE6NE5--NE4E5E6E5NE5
2 days agoCalmN56NE9NE74E11E12E11E15E14NE8NE6NE6E4E4E4E3CalmNE5CalmNE4NE4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown, York River, Virginia
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Yorktown
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:03 AM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:16 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:20 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:38 PM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.721.20.3-0.3-0.6-0.40.211.82.52.82.72.21.40.6-0.1-0.5-0.40.10.81.72.42.9

Tide / Current Tables for Penniman Spit, York River, Virginia
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Penniman Spit
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:41 AM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:46 AM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:58 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.51.70.80-0.5-0.6-0.20.51.42.32.82.92.621.10.3-0.3-0.5-0.30.41.32.22.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.