Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 3:48 PM   Moonset 3:53 AM

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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 1003 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Rest of today - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers late this morning, then a slight chance of showers this afternoon. Tonight - NW winds 5 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight, then becoming ne 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds. Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Sun night - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of rain. Mon - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 6 seconds. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 7 seconds. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wed night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft.

ANZ600 1003 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
another cold front drops across the waters this morning, and pushes offshore through this afternoon, then becomes stalled offshore. Rain chances increase late Sunday into early Monday, as low pressure tracks along the stalled frontal boundary over the coastal carolinas. Transient high pressure builds over the region by midweek, with a mainly weak, dry cold front pushing across the area on Wednesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 200817 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 417 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move across the region this morning. Low pressure will track from the southeast coast, east northeast and out to sea Sunday into Monday morning. High pressure will build over the area for late Monday into Tuesday afternoon.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...

Early this morning, a cold front was located just WNW of the CWA Latest radar showed just isolated showers moving into central and scntrl VA. Otherwise, the sky was mostly cloudy or cloudy with stratus or lower SC prevailing over the area. There was also patchy fog. Temps were ranging through the 50s.

The cold front will move across the region and offshore this morning into this aftn. Still expecting widely sctd showers to accompany the FROPA with slight chance to chance PoPs (20-40%).
While instability remains in short supply, mesoanalysis and short-term models advertise a modest increase in MUCAPE, as the front inches closer. Thus, will continue carrying a slight chc thunder, mainly S and SE of Richmond.

The front will push ESE of the FA and out to sea this aftn taking any lingering pcpn with it. We should see at least partial clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area this aftn, as drier air filters in behind the front. Highs will be in the lower 70s along I-95 and westward into the Piedmont, and in the mid to upper 60s near the Bay and along the coast.

A stronger shot of CAA arrives tonight into Sun morning. Mostly clear to partly cloudy early, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy toward Sun morning. Low temps will drop into the 40s to near 50.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...

Sun into early Mon morning, a southern stream low pressure system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast states then off the SE coast, and out to sea. Rain chances will return by Sun aftn across the srn half of the forecast area, with the highest rain chances expected/then continuing across srn/SE counties for Sun aftn through late Sun night. Highs will only be in the mid 50s to near 60 on Sun, due to lots of clouds/and or rain.

That system moves farther out to sea Mon through Mon night, with high pressure building right over the area by early Tue morning.
Becoming sunny or mostly sunny on Mon with highs ranging through the 60s. Clear or mostly clear and cold Mon night with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

High pressure over the region Tue morning, will slide offshore by Tue evening, before another cold front brings a slight or small chance of showers during Wed. Although it will be very cool Tue morning (upper 30s to upper 40s), temps should rebound nicely into the mid 60s to lower 70s. The cold front will push out to sea Wed night, with high pressure building into/over the area for Thu. The high will slide off to the NE or E during Fri.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s Wed. Lows Wed night will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s (coolest NW). Highs will range through the 60s Thu, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Fri.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Expect mainly LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGs at the TAF sites through this morning into this aftn, as a cold front with sctd showers and maybe a tstm will move through the region then off the coast.
CIGs/conditions will improve to VFR from NW to SE this aftn into this evening, as winds become northerly and start to usher drier air into the area. VFR conditions expected tonight through Sun morning.

Outlook: Rain chances return by Sun aftn and continue through Sun night, as low pressure tracks from the southeast coast, east northeast and out to sea Sun into Mon.

MARINE
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...

Latest analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary just SW of the waters early this morning, with a trailing cold front just off to the W-NW. Winds are out of the E-SE 5-10 kt this morning, seas 3 to 5 ft (highest north of Parramore Island), waves 1-2 ft.
SCA for seas continues over the northern coastal waters through 10 am.

The warm front lifts across the waters in the next few hours, veering winds around to the SSW. The previously referenced cold front then crosses the region by sunrise this morning, with winds expected to swing around to the W-NW then NNW post-frontal later this morning. Cold air advection is rather weak, so expect this surge will be mainly sub- SCA, though a brief period of gusts to 20 kt is likely over the coastal waters and elevated terminals in the Chesapeake Bay after 12z/8am this morning through midday. Winds level off this afternoon, averaging ~10 to 15 kt.

Winds become NW to N again tonight, as pressure gradient tightens due to low pressure crossing to our south as high pressure builds to the west. High-res models are a bit more robust with cool air surge late tonight/early Sunday and have therefore added an SCA for the Bay and lower James River for late this evening into Sunday morning.
This surge is also relatively short lived and winds should decrease with time Sunday morning, with winds again leveling off ~10-15 kt by Sunday afternoon.

A area of low pressure moves off the Carolinas late Sunday and into early next week supporting a persistent NE flow and building seas.
Would not be surprised to eventually (briefly) need SCA over southern coastal waters south of the VA/NC border by the time we get into the day on Monday, but will keep just below for now.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...

Tidal anomalies continue to slowly ease this morning, but remain elevated across the upper portions of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac. Allowed Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements to drop on time, but will continue to monitor potential for additional minor tidal flooding this morning, especially for sensitive locations such as Bishops Head, MD.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632- 634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650- 652.

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Sand Shoal Inlet (Coast Guard Station)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:06 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:31 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:00 PM EDT     4.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sand Shoal Inlet (Coast Guard Station), Virginia, Tide feet

Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:40 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:56 AM EDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:05 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:28 PM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia, Tide feet

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