Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Colonial Heights, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:26PM Thursday March 23, 2017 2:19 AM EDT (06:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:19AMMoonset 1:55PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 1224 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 1224 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Strong high pressure builds in from the northwest through tonight...becoming centered over the waters on Thursday. High pressure slides offshore Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Colonial Heights, VA
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location: 37.27, -77.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230145
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
945 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure builds into the mid atlantic states
through Thursday. A gradual warming trend begins Friday into
the upcoming weekend. A more active weather pattern is
anticipated Sunday night into the first half of next week.

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/
Winds continue to diminish late this evening under a clear sky.

Expecting winds to become calm away from the water overnight
which will set the stage for chilly readings. Still
anticipating lows of 22-25f north of interstate 64 (including
interior md lower eastern shore), 26-28f inland va/ne nc, and
29-33 far SE va/ne nc coastal areas.

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Saturday/
Canadian high pressure continues to settle over the mid atlantic
region on Thu and then slowly slides offshore Thu night.

Slightly cooler with continued dry conditions thu/thu night.

Highs in the upper 40s to around 50f inland/low-mid 40s
immediate coast and md/va eastern shore. Lows in the upper 20s
to 32f inland /low-mid 30s beaches.

Dry with a gradual warming trend Fri through Sat as high
pressure shifts well offshore, and a warm front lifts northwest
of the area... Allowing warm air advection to commence with
winds becoming more s-sw. Temperatures are expected to rebound
to 60-65f most inland areas (mid 50s to lower 60s beaches and
md/va eastern shore) due to breezy southwest winds gusting to
around 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph md/va eastern shore.

Overall conditions will be dry as mid-upper level ridging and
decent subsidence aloft dominates (i.E. Best shower chances are
well north along the warm front). Otherwise, mid-high clouds
should stream across the region (especially north) in relatively
flat, upper level flow through Fri night. Lows around 50f.

Meanwhile, low pressure exits the intermountain west into the
central plains Fri into Fri night. As the low tracks into the
wrn midwest on sat, a secondary warm front is expected to lift
through the area. This will allow for additional warming in
continued southwest sfc winds and a noticeable influx of
moisture as dewpoints increase to around 50f. Although clouds
should clear out across the SE half of the area during the day
(as is typical with a warm frontal passage), aftn cumulus
development and increasing cirrus from the west will keep partly
sunny wording in the forecast. Taking all of the above into
account as well as improved daytime heating with an increasing
sun angle, went with a blend of wpc/mosguide for highs on sat
and bumped up the eastern shore due to the southwest winds
present. Expect highs in the mid 70s inland/low- mid 70s beaches).

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/
Medium range of the forecast period characterized by near to
above normal temperatures, courtesy of arriving mid-level
ridging aloft, and surface high pressure oriented just off the
mid atlantic/southeast coast. Main weather features of note will
be a series of mid/upper level troughs... Bringing a few periods
of scattered light precipitation over the weekend/early next
week. The first of these disturbances traverses across the
central/southern plains on Saturday, dampening as it crosses
e-ne into the ohio valley and great lakes on Sunday and into the
northeast on Monday. This feature will allow for some isolated
to scattered showers Sunday afternoon into early on Monday. Qpf
will be limited with this feature. Instability and weakening
dynamics/forcing remain maximized well off to our n-nw, and will
therefore maintain 40-60% pop over our western/nw tier for some
sct to numerous showers Sunday evening into Monday morning, with
lesser pops for more isolated showers across the SE coastal
plain. Mild southerly flow will keep temps mild, with forecast
highs in the upper 50s to 60s northern neck and lower md eastern
shore... With upper 60s to low 70s inland for the weekend into
early next week.

For the middle of next week... Attention turns to a pair of
shortwaves. A second southern stream disturbance is expected to
track east/northeastward from the ca coast... Across the plains
and mid-south late Sat to early Monday. This system will
continue to weaken as it pushes across the eastern third of the
conus Monday through early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a northern stream
system will drop from the pac NW toward the northern plains
early Monday, eventually reaching the great lakes by the middle
of next week. Models are still split on the evolution of these
systems. The 12z/22 ECMWF and 00z ec ensembles remains quicker
to dampen these features with the gfs/gefs a bit stronger/more
amplified. Taking a middle of the road approach remains the
preference at this point, with the resultant blended solution
allowing for continued mild weather Mon to Wed with at least a
small chance for showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Shortwave
ridging rebuilds behind this system for Wednesday. Highs remain
mild through the period, with 50s and 60s over the northern
neck of va into md, with highs well into the 60s to mid 70s
inland. Early morning lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s southern
sections.

Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/
Strong high pressure settles over the mid atlantic states Thursday
morning before moving off the coast Thursday night and Friday. Low
pressure and its associated frontal system will move out of the
southern great plains and approach the area by Sunday.

North winds will diminish this evening but remain gusty through the
early morning hours at orf. Winds will be AOB 10 knots Thursday and
gradually veer to southeast. The sky will remain clear.

Outlook...VFR conditions will continue through early Sunday. There
will be a good chance of showers late Sunday through Monday.

Marine
7 pm update...

all gale warnings were allowed to expire at 7 pm. SCA expired in
the eastern virginia rivers except the lower james. Otherwise
sca will be in effect through early Thursday morning except
continuing in the coastal waters south of CAPE charles due to
seas through midday.

Previous discussion...

latest obs reflect strong surge of northerly winds ongoing
across the waters this afternoon. Winds averaging north at
25-30 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt over the bay and coastal waters
into the mouth of the james river.

Will be allowing gale headline to expire over the ches bay north
of little creek, stepping back to SCA through tonight. Will
maintain a gale for the mouth of chesapeake bay and the coastal
waters through 23z (7pm edt) for winds generally 25-30 kt with
gusts to around 35-40 kt. Laps/msas showing strong 3-hr pressure
rises on the order of 2-4 mb over the waters with decent flow
aloft mixing down 30-35 kt wind gusts over the waters this
afternoon. Low pressure slides farther off the coastal carolinas
through tonight as strong ~1040mb canadian high pressure builds
from the great lakes into the ohio valley. Pressure gradient
will slacken as the high builds overhead overnight. SCA over the
rivers drop this evening, and over the bay early Thu morning.

Existing gales over the coastal waters and mouth of the bay and
the currituck sound should be able to be dropped on time early
this evening, with a period of SCA needed through the night
before dropping below SCA thresholds Thu morning/early aftn over
southern waters. Seas of around 5-8 ft ATTM (highest southern
coastal waters) slowly subside tonight with waves of 4-5 feet.

High pressure settles over the waters Thursday morning with
winds becoming north to northeast at or below 15 knots. Seas
gradually subside from north to south Thursday morning, finally
dropping below 5 ft threshold in the southern coastal waters by
early Thursday afternoon.

High pressure slides offshore Thursday night with flow becoming
southwest Friday and lingering through Saturday. Speeds increase
to 15-20 knots Friday afternoon as a storm system develops over
the midwest. The next front crosses the waters early next week,
with relatively benign marine conditions expected over the
weekend in light return flow, courtesy of high pressure anchored
over the western atlantic. Seas remain 2-3 ft, waves 1-2 ft.

Equipment
Radar kdox remains inoperable due to a bad spectrum filter.

Maintenance is expected to begin overnight with an estimated
(though possibly unstable) return to service is now Friday,
march 24th.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... High surf advisory until 1 am edt Thursday for ncz102.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Thursday for anz630>634-
650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Thursday for anz638.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Thursday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Bmd/jdm
short term... Bmd
long term... Mam
aviation... Lsa
marine... Mam/lsa
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 32 mi29 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 38°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 36 mi49 min ENE 1.9 38°F 1032 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi49 min NE 11 G 13 40°F 49°F1031.5 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA10 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair29°F15°F59%1032.5 hPa
Chesterfield County Airport, VA12 mi24 minNNE 410.00 miFair36°F3°F25%1032.5 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA17 mi25 minNNE 310.00 miFair36°F10°F35%1032.8 hPa

Wind History from PTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N5N18
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N7N6N6N4NE3N6Calm
1 day agoS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmN5N8CalmE3E5NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE7N6N5N4W6N6NW6CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Puddledock Sand
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Puddledock Sand & Gravel
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Thu -- 12:31 AM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:02 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.52.52.31.91.410.70.40.51.222.52.932.92.521.510.50.30.71.52.1

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:26 AM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:36 PM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.52.21.610.60.40.40.71.322.42.72.72.41.91.40.90.60.40.40.81.52.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.