Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Williamsburg, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:18PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 4:56 AM EDT (08:56 UTC) Moonrise 6:02PMMoonset 6:12AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 403 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Through 7 am..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain early in the afternoon. Rain likely late.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 403 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure centered to the north of the region slides offshore today. Low pressure develops off the carolina coast before tracking across the region on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williamsburg, VA
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location: 37.3, -76.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 200825
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
425 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure slides offshore of new england today as low
pressure moves north through the region tonight into Thursday.

Drier weather is expected Friday through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 355 am edt Wednesday...

latest analysis indicates ~1030 mb surface high pressure
centered off the northern mid-atlantic coast to near CAPE cod
with low pressure continuing to strengthen off the coastal
carolinas. Have even had some light rain making it to the
ground over NE nc counties early this morning though only with
trace amounts despite some decent looking returns. Mostly cloudy
skies have expanded all the way into SE va. The rain appears to
be struggling to move much farther N as it encounters the much
drier airmass in va, but will continue to see increasing clouds
into much of va early through the morning. A drastic difference
in temperature is seen in the observations with upper 20s to
lower 30s in the mostly clear skies from akq to ric and points n
and lower-mid 40s in NE nc and southside hampton roads.

The overall change for this forecast package was to continue the
trend started last evening at significantly increasing clouds pops
for today as all models are faster with the spread of moisture
into the area today and tonight. For much of the cwa, it will be
tonight early Thu rather than the day itself when the main round
of widespread rain occurs. Given the faster arrival of clouds
and rain to the area today, have lowered highs several degrees
in southern va and NE nc where highs will generally only be in
the upper 40s to lower 50s (coolest in south central va and at
the immediate coast of SE va NE nc with onshore easterly flow).

With sunshine at least through the morning and drier
conditions, highs over the north will be warmer, mainly in the
mid 50s (except cooler at the coast of the eastern shore). High
res models depict the initial batch of rain currently in NE nc
will struggle to move much to the north until late this morning
or early this aftn, then ramp up more significantly during the
aftn and have increased pops across the south to likely this
aftn with chance pops to metro richmond (where skies also become
mostly cloudy).

A strong trough digs through the oh tn valleys tonight, rapidly
pulling the sfc low N through the CWA overnight. Will have
categorical 80-90% pops all zones tonight (initially chc over
the n). Lows will be in the 40s most areas, but will likely rise
overnight across the SE (into the 50s) as the consensus track of
the sfc low is inland a bit to the E of the i-95 corridor.

Instability looks minimal even in the SE zones overnight so did
not include any tstms at this time. QPF amounts through sunrise
thu will avg 0.50" to 0.75".

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 410 am edt Wednesday...

sfc low is progged to be near the va nc border at 12z thu, then
rapidly push N between the i-95 corridor and the bay, into
eastern md (west of the bay) by 21z. This track would tend to
shut off the bulk of the moderate heavy rain by the aftn as a
dry slot trails the sfc low. An isolated tstms could occur in
the SE Thu morning, but better instability stays off to the se
over the gulf stream so did not include any TSTM mention. Highs
additional QPF will be 0.25" or less except over the E NE where
an additional 0.50" will be possible. Highs range from the
lower-mid 50s NW to the lower 60s se. Drying out Thu night, but
with potent shortwave aloft passing through the area, skies will
generally be mostly cloudy with a chance for a few showers. Lows
mainly in the 40s (some upper 30s possible W of i-95 with
partial clearing late). Becoming mostly sunny Fri morning as a
breezy wnw low level flow develops. However, a trailing
shortwave is then expected to dive SE from the upper midwest and
move across the northern 1 2 of the cwa. Thus, expect skies to
become partly-mostly cloudy across the N with ~20% pop in the
aftn (while staying partly-mostly sunny and dry to the south). Breezy
fri with highs in the mid upper 50s N to the lower 60s s. Mostly
clear Fri night with lows in the 30s.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 225 pm edt Tuesday...

sfc hi pres and dry wx settle over the local area for the
weekend (though a bit breezy into sat... Esp ERN portions). By
mon... That sfc hi pres will be off the SE CONUS coast while lo
pres and its associated cold front will be starting to take
shape gather moisture from the oh valley to the lower ms valley.

The cold front will be pushing S through the area Mon night
into Tue morning W a trailing area of lo pres tracking by to
the S as colder sfc hi pres builds SE out of canada. The 12z 19
gfs appears to be having low level sfc temperature issues and is
forecasting a winter storm (esp across SRN SE va-ne nc). Have
thrown that scenario out right now due to those issues (and the
fact that each time cold air has chased ra this winter... There
was very little or no sn). Will increase pops to 50-80% (for ra)
across much of the fa Mon night into Tue morning then begin to
taper the pops down from NW to SE into Tue night.

Highs Sat in the l-m50s at the coast in va-md to the upper
50s around 60 f inland. Lows Sat night in the m-u30s inland to
40-45f at the coast. Highs Sun in the u50s-l60s near the bay and
on the ERN shore to the u60s-l70s elsewhere. Lows Sun night in
the m-u40s. Highs Mon from 60-65f near the bay and on the ern
shore to the u60s-l70s inland. Lows Mon night in the u30s NW to
the m40s se. Highs Tue in the m-u40s N and NW to the m50s se.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 215 am edt Wednesday...

high pressure remains centered off of CAPE cod early this
morning, but a coastal trough extends N to a position just off
the nc coast and bkn ovc conditions (vfr CIGS around 5-10 k ft)
have already spread N into kecg and korf with a few light rain
showers at kecg. Low pressure lifts farther north later today,
with mostly cloudy skies south and increasing over the north.

MainlyVFR conditions are expected through about 21z as the
rain will be fairly light with CIGS and vsbys slow to
deteriorate. For a NE wind of 10-15kt is expected at korf kecg
during the day and AOB 10kt at ric sby phf.

Low pressure pushes nwd across the region tonight into
Thursday. This will result in flight restrictions with lowering
cigs and limited vsbys in ra br. Drier air arrives from the nw
Thursday night. However, a secondary trough drops across the
region Friday, which has the potential to bring a gusty NW wind,
clouds, and a few light showers. High pressure builds across
the region Saturday into Sunday.

Marine
As of 410 am edt Wednesday...

early morning surface analysis shows high pressure centered north of
the local area with developing low pressure beginning to take shape
off the southeast coast. Winds from the va nc border northward are
generally from the east at 10-15 knots while areas south of the
border are from the northeast and a bit stronger at 15-20 knots.

Persistent northeast flow across the southern marine zones has
allowed seas to remain above 5 feet, with 2-4 feet across the
northern ocean zones. SCA headlines continue for the southern waters
with advisories in effect for the currituck sound through early
afternoon. Have extended the SCA headlines across the southern
offshore zones for persistent elevated seas and included anz656
(mouth of the bay southward to the va nc border) after 12z this
morning. Winds will decrease temporarily (generally 10-15 knots)
late this evening before increasing once again early Thursday
morning as low pressure moves northward toward the region. Models
have come into much better agreement than was apparent 24 hours ago
with surface low expected to take an inland track across the area
Thursday. Guidance has generally trended faster, weaker, and more
westward with the low but a brief period of marginal SCA conditions
in southeasterly flow ahead of the low remains possible Thursday
morning and early afternoon. Refrained from hoisting scas for the
bay with this package pending further refinement in model solutions
regarding the strength and duration of southeasterly flow ahead of
the low. Elevated seas (5+ feet) will spread northward Thursday
ahead of the low pressure, SCA headlines follow suit with advisories
for offshore zones through at least Thursday evening, and likely to
continue into Saturday.

Still expecting period of SCA winds Friday afternoon into Saturday
as low pressure deepens across the northeastern states and high
pressure across the upper mississippi valley moves southeastward.

Guidance continues to show the potential for higher end sca
conditions during this period with gusts approaching low-end gale
territory across the northern ocean zones. Conditions improve by
sunrise on Sunday as the pressure gradient slackens and high
pressure builds overhead.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 7 pm edt Thursday for anz650-
652-654.

Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 7 pm edt
Thursday for anz656.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Thursday for anz658.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Alb
aviation... Ajz lkb
marine... Eri rhr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 9 mi86 min WSW 1.9 30°F 1029 hPa29°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 10 mi38 min E 12 G 14 45°F 49°F1028 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 17 mi38 min E 11 G 12 44°F 1028.8 hPa
44072 21 mi26 min 44°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 26 mi44 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 45°F 1027.9 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi26 min E 7.8 G 9.7 43°F 47°F1025.3 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 29 mi44 min ENE 15 G 17 45°F 1026.6 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 30 mi44 min 50°F1027.4 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 33 mi38 min ENE 8.9 G 12 45°F 1027.2 hPa
44087 33 mi26 min 47°F2 ft
CHBV2 35 mi44 min E 12 G 15 45°F 1026.6 hPa
44064 36 mi26 min E 14 G 18 44°F 1027.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 36 mi44 min ENE 5.1 G 7 47°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 38 mi38 min NE 7 G 8 1029.2 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 41 mi44 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 51°F1027.1 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 43 mi38 min ENE 17 G 19 44°F 1025.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 49 mi44 min WNW 1 G 1.9 38°F 48°F1028.8 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA5 mi81 minN 010.00 miFair34°F32°F93%1028.8 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA11 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair35°F28°F77%1028.1 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA14 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair30°F26°F85%1028.2 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA16 mi81 minN 010.00 miFair28°F27°F98%1029.1 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA22 mi2 hrsE 910.00 miFair40°F29°F67%1028.7 hPa

Wind History from JGG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW10
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CalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Queen Creek (2 miles above entrance), York River, Virginia
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Queen Creek (2 miles above entrance)
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:11 AM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:28 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:41 PM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 10:50 PM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.20.4-0.2-0.5-0.40.20.91.82.52.92.92.51.70.90.1-0.3-0.4-0.10.61.42.22.82.9

Tide / Current Tables for Allmondsville, York River, Virginia
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Allmondsville
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:14 AM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:27 AM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 10:49 PM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.40.5-0.2-0.6-0.50.21.12.133.43.42.92.11.10.2-0.4-0.5-0.10.71.72.63.33.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.