Thursday, January17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Goldfield, NV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:55PM Thursday January 17, 2019 12:55 AM PST (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:47PMMoonset 4:16AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goldfield, NV
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location: 37.31, -117.29     debug

Area Discussion for - Las Vegas, NV
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Fxus65 kvef 170551
area forecast discussion
national weather service las vegas nv
950 pm pst Wed jan 16 2019

Synopsis A major winter storm will impact the sierra and white
mountains with heavy snow through Thursday producing feet of snow.

Significant snow will also occur at elevations above 8500 feet in
the spring mountains while the rest of the region sees another round
of widespread light to moderate rainfall Thursday. A dry weather
pattern will return to our region Friday into next week.

Update The latest model runs observations support the forecast
trends detailed in the previous discussion and only minor changes
were made to the pop wx QPF grids. The changes were to primarily
increase pops to 100 percent through 18z Thursday and boost qpf
amounts to 1.25-1.50" for bishop and much of the owens valley. Based
on local studies, this setup has the ingredients needed for
prolonged moderate precipitation spilling over the southern sierra
into the owens valley, namely 50 knot plus 700-600mb winds with high
moisture flux ivt due to an inland penetrating atmospheric river.

Recent radar loops also showed a swath of light rain over western
san bernardino county up into the southern part of death valley
national park which will be spreading into southern nevada before
midnight, but may break up a little and largely be intercepted by
the spring mountains. This will be good timing for the winter
weather advisory to go into effect, but the main period for
prolonged rain and high elevation snow over the spring mountains
will be between 6 am and 6 pm Thursday. Snow level are still
expected to rise Thursday keeping snow confined primarily above 8500-
9000 feet msl, which means a significant amount of rain will fall in
the populated areas of kyle canyon. Will continue to monitor closely.

Prev discussion
313 pm pst Wed jan 16 2019

Short term Tonight through Friday morning.

Confidence in forecast details is increasing, with major impacts
expected in the eastern sierra and moderate impacts in the spring
mountains. Elsewhere, mainly minor impacts are expected with
widespread, consistent light to moderate rainfall through the day
then dissipating Thursday night. The main unknown in the forecast
for Thursday is snow levels on the spring mountains, which will
affect snow amounts between 7000 to 8500 ft.

Models are consistent with timing through the event. There were some
discrepancies tonight with how quickly precipitation overspread the
area from west to east. Based on current mesoanalysis and ongoing
precipitation in norcal this afternoon, favored the drier hi-res
models for tonight. This mainly slowed down the progression of the
precipitation eastward through 12z Thursday. System should swing
through Thursday during the day, then precipitation should dissipate
from west to east as it exits Thursday evening and overnight. Did
not make significant changes to precipitation chances on Thursday
models are in good agreement in timing and locations.

A moisture surge pushes in Thursday morning on moist southwest
flow, and this should bring the period of heaviest precipitation
from west to east. Based on pwat climos and abundant moisture
already in place over the southwest us, favored the higher qpf
models for the precipitation amounts forecast. This significantly
increased QPF on the spring mountains. It will be interesting as
the flow would favor most of the moisture being intercepted by the
spring mts, so over 2 inches is possible on mount charleston but
less than a quarter of an inch is expected in las vegas itself.

Elsewhere, precipitation amounts did not change significantly.

Best chances for over an inch of rain will be in the higher
terrain of lincoln and nye county, with the heaviest precipitation
as the best forcing moves through Thursday afternoon.

Snow levels were increased from the previous forecast. Strong south
flow will allow the atmosphere to warm up quickly. With no dry air
to overcome, evaporational cooling should not play a role in snow
levels. Blended the previous forecast withe the GFS for snow levels
through Thursday as it was the middle of the model suite with snow
level forecasts. This brought snow levels to at 7000ft in the
sierra. The main question will be snow levels in the spring
mountains. Snow should start at 7000ft for the onset of
precipitation tonight after midnight, but all the models increase
snow levels by Thursday morning through the afternoon. The blend
used gave about 8000-8500ft snow levels for the spring mountains.

This will be during the period of heaviest precipitation for them,
so areas that see snow overnight may see heavy rain during the day.

Low to moderate confidence in the snow level forecast Thursday
morning for this area, and will need to watch it closely because
models showed everything from 7500-9500ft. With strong forcing,
7500ft is possible with stronger upward motion cooling the
column... But with strong warm flow 9500ft is also possible.

Snow forecasts in the sierra did not change. Spring mountain snow
total forecasted changed significantly depending on elevation. With
increased QPF from the previous forecast, higher snow totals are now
in the forecast with 1 to 2 ft possible in the crests of mount
charleston where is stays all snow. Given the limited impacts in the
springs due to raising snow levels, held on to winter weather
advisory. High confidence in the forecast over the sierra, with up
to 4 feet possible and high winds up to 60mph possible through the
event. Travel will be nearly impossible over 7000ft as high winds
and heavy snow could create dangerous conditions.

The system will wind down as it exits the region Thursday night.

Precipitation will become lighter Thursday evening as the flow
become north and dries out, then shut down from west to east with
anticyclonic flow taking over Thursday night. By Friday early
morning, precipitation should be confined over mohave county.

Improving conditions with clearing skies Friday.

Long term Friday through Wednesday.

Friday, the potent weather system will be clearing west-to-east out
of our area, leaving a few lingering pops in northwestern portions
of mohave county Friday morning. After that system's passage, the
weekend will be greeted with sunny skies and above-average
temperatures as ridging sets up over our region.

All weekend, sunny skies and high temperatures at or a couple
degrees above-normal are expected due to an area of high pressure
over the baja.

Sunday evening into Monday, models indicate another trough will dig
through our area. At the moment, there is disagreement with regard
to both timing and placement of this negatively-tilted trough axis.

the operational GFS has the system skirting the northern portions of
lincoln county and central nye county late Sunday evening, while the
ecmwf shows the system pushing straight through our CWA during the
entire duration of Monday. The nbm and superblend have handled this
uncertainty for the beginning of the work week by essentially
combining the two outcomes - the forecast location of the GFS with
the forecast timing of the ecmwf. As a result, have chosen to
follow suit. Pops enter the forecast early Monday morning for the
sierra and shift eastward through the day Monday encompassing
northern portions of esmeralda, central nye and lincoln counties
before clearing out after sunset. Precipitation, if any, will
predominantly take the form of rain. The higher elevations of
northern lincoln county cannot rule out snowfall above 4500 feet,
though with no expectation of considerable accumulation.

with regard to wind, the sierra will take the brunt Sunday
afternoon evening with sustained wind speeds in the mid-40s mph and
gusts as high as 70 mph. Late Sunday night to early Monday morning
as the system pushes past the sierra, winds will disperse across the
lower great basin ranging in the mid-30s for sustained wind speeds
per hour and localized gusting to up to 45. By late Monday morning,
these wind speeds will make their way southward into the colorado
river valley and diminish through the overnight and early Tuesday
morning hours.

Tuesday and Wednesday, a high pressure system approaches northern
california, resulting in ridging and sunny skies for our area with a
prevailing northwesterly flow. This flow will result in afternoon
highs at or a couple degrees below seasonal averages.

Aviation For mccarran... Light winds generally under 8 knots
favoring a south to southwest direction overnight. Rain chances
increase overnight with showers developing around the valley. Best
chance at the airport after 14z through the morning hours with
decreasing rain chances throughout the day. Ceilings are expected to
decrease overnight, generally remaining between 3-5k feet. Gusty
southwest winds Thursday afternoon with gusts to 25 kts.

For the rest of southern nevada, northwest arizona and southeast
california... Widespread moisture will overspread the region
overnight into Thursday with CIGS becoming bkn-ovc around 4-7k feet
agl. Lower ceilings at kbih where ceilings as low as 1k feet are
possible in the morning. Gusty south winds will persist at kbih
through tomorrow morning with gusts to 30 kts possible. Winds are
expected to increase area-wide tomorrow afternoon with southwest
gusts around 20-25 kts. Areas of fog are possible in the morning.

Spotter information statement Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

Update... Adair
short term... Wolf
long term... .Varian
aviation... Salmen
for more forecast information... See us on our webpage:
http: weather.Gov lasvegas or follow us on facebook and twitter

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tonopah, Tonopah Airport, NV52 mi60 minSSE 17 G 2410.00 miLight Rain42°F39°F89%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from TPH (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE8SE8SE6SE8SE8S8S9S6SE7S10SE15S18
1 day agoSE7S6S5S6E6SE9SE7SE6E5CalmSE7SE6S5S7SE11SE14S9S10S11SE8S13S10S11S8
2 days agoN6NW4N6N5N6N5N5NE4CalmSE14SE16SE16S16

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Las Vegas, NV (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Joaquin Valley, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.