Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mathews, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 2:34 AM EDT (06:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:24PMMoonset 3:02AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1258 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Rest of tonight..SE winds 15 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt early in the afternoon, then becoming sw late. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 1258 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure approaches the local area from the southwest overnight, then will be slow to lift north of the area on Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns by Thursday.

Hourly Forecast for Marine Location Near Mathews CDP, VA
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location: 37.35, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 250602
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
202 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks across virginia late tonight... Then will be
slow to move away from the coast Wednesday. Weak high pressure
returns by Thursday.

Near term through today
Late evening update as of 10 pm edt Tuesday...

latest msas has low pressure moving NE from the foothills of nc
and will continue to track NE across the local area overnight.

Rain of varying intensity continues to rotate north into the
area ahead of the low. High res data has backed off a bit on the
intensity of shwrs after midnite along the coast as the warm
front lifts north. In fact, data shows a bit of a dry slot
punching NE after 09z along the coast. Thus, will continue with
high pops for the next several hrs then taper off a bit late.

Some drizzle and areas of fog across the piedmont as the column
remains nearly saturated. Lows in the 50s to near 60 se.

Afternoon discussion as of 4 pm edt Tuesday
On Wednesday, the initial surface low and warm front will lift
north of the area, but the upper level low will settle over the
area. This will allow for some cooler air aloft to settle over
the area with more showers developing in the afternoon. Could
potentially see some thunder if there is enough heating ahead of
the upper lows arrival. Right now, it looks like it will stay a
little too cloudy, but it can't be ruled out especially east of
i-95. Guidance is pretty spread on temps tomorrow with the met
much cooler than the mav. Have generally gone in between with
temps in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

Short term tonight through Friday
As of 400 pm edt Tuesday...

the upper low will exit the region early Wed night taking any
chance of rain with it. Show a gradual decrease in pops from sw
to NE during the evening. Behind this system the newer model
runs are not as aggressive in pushing the drier air with the
next sfc high into the region. This is more like what the gfs
had been depicting in previous runs. As a result have kept the
clouds a little longer and also raised overnight lows by a few
degrees getting closer to guidance in the low to mid 50s.

With the front not pushing as far south on Wed night into
Thursday and stalling more along the nc va border expect to see
a little less sunshine especially across SRN va NRN nc. The next
surface wave is now progged to arrive sooner on Thursday night.

So expect to see clouds on the increase during the afternoon and
could even see some light pcpn in the piedmont counties around
sunset. At this point held off on adding late afternoon pcpn but
will need to see how quick the overrunning develops. For highs
on Thursday did have readings back into the low to mid 70s with
the best warming in the eastern portion of the cwa.

With the next wave arriving sooner have sped up pops on Thursday
night and Friday morning. The best chance for rain looks to be
in the piedmont counties so have increased pops to 50 for now
and they may need to be increased. Once the surface low lifts
through the area by Friday morning should see the chances for
rain diminish by later morning early afternoon. For
temperatures, kept readings a little warmer thurs night with the
sw flow and clouds. For highs on Friday did keep highs in the
low to mid 70s as the return of the Sun in the afternoon should
allow for temperatures to warm especially ahead of the cold
front for Saturday.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 400 pm edt Tuesday...

gfs ECMWF differ early in this period with the GFS showing the last
in a series of S W trofs rounding the base of the long wave trof
late Fri night with it moving off the sern coast Sat ahead of a weak
frontal passage. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is drier with little if any
support for pcpn even with the frontal passage sat. A model blend
results in low chc shwrs across the sern zones late Fri night and
sat keeping the rest of the local area dry for now. Lows Fri nite
upr 40s-mid 50s. Highs Sat upr 60s-mid 70s, cooler at the beaches.

After that, some delightful spring weather on tap early next week as
high pressure builds SE from the gt lakes region Sun to a position
over the local area Mon then off the mid atlantic coast tue. Cool to
start then a warming trend. Highs Sun generally in the 60s. Lows in
the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Mon upr 60s-lwr 70s. Lows upr 40s-lwr
50s. Highs Tue 75-80.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 200 am edt Wednesday...

starting out W widespread lifr ifr conditions (primarily due to
cigs)... Except around ecg. Sfc lo pres INVOF wcentral nc will be
tracking slowly NE through ERN va today as an upper level low
arrives from the W and crosses the region midday through this
eve. Will have continued lifr ifr conditions (mainly CIGS through
early mid morning along W occasional patchy -ra -dz. By this
afternoon... Vrb clouds-mostly cloudy as CIGS lift through MVFR
to potential lo endVFR. Will continue W sct-likely shras and
there could be isold tstms as the cold pool aloft crosses the
region from about 17z 25-00z 26. Confidence not high enough attm
to add to the tafs. Wx will be slow to improve tonight as lo
pres finally moves away to the ene.VFR conditions expected thu
as weak hi pres returns. Another area of lo pres will impact the
region by late Thu night into Fri afternoon W flight
restrictions likely due to lower bkn-ovc CIGS and shras. Mainly
vfr conditions expected sat-sun.

Marine
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

broad low pressure is situated over upstate sc this afternoon.

Meanwhile, high pressure is centered well off the new england coast.

The resultant pressure gradient between these two features is causing
east to southeast winds of 15-25 kt with gust up to 30 kt that will
last into this evening. Seas will continue to build to 6-10 ft by
this evening; waves reaching 3-5 ft, except up to 6 ft at the mouth
of the bay. Winds waves seas diminish subside overnight into
Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. Scas remain in
effect for all waters through late evening, with scas for the rivers
coming down at 11 pm tue, and for the bay sound at 1 am wed. Scas
have been extended into Thursday morning for the southern coastal
waters and Thursday afternoon for the northern coastal waters due to
seas remaining elevated. A high surf advisory for obx currituck will
also remain in effect until 5 am Wednesday for nearshore waves of 8-
10 feet.

Broad low pressure lifts north through the region during Wednesday
with ssw winds 5-15kt becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed night
into thurs morning. After a brief lull midweek the next low pressure
system then impacts the region Friday Saturday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... High surf advisory until 5 am edt early this morning for
ncz102.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt today for anz634.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for anz650-652-
654.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Thursday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Ess mpr
near term... Ess mpr
short term... Ess
long term... Mpr
aviation... Alb
marine... Jdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 8 mi46 min SE 13 G 14 56°F 1011 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 15 mi46 min E 5.1 G 7 57°F 56°F1010 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi46 min SE 14 G 18 1011.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 19 mi52 min ESE 7 G 9.9 55°F
CHBV2 24 mi52 min ESE 6 G 7 55°F 1009.6 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi64 min SE 1.9 60°F 1012 hPa60°F
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 26 mi46 min E 8 G 8.9 59°F 1010 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 28 mi46 min 56°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 28 mi46 min E 2.9 G 6 60°F 1010.3 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 32 mi46 min ESE 7 G 8.9 60°F 1009.9 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 32 mi46 min E 4.1 G 4.1 54°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 35 mi46 min E 5.1 G 7 55°F 56°F1011.5 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 40 mi46 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 61°F 59°F1009.5 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 41 mi34 min 51°F7 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi46 min ESE 8 G 9.9 56°F 56°F1011.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi34 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 55°F 53°F2 ft1012.4 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA19 mi2.6 hrsESE 95.00 miFog/Mist61°F60°F100%1011.8 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA20 mi40 minE 61.75 miFog/Mist58°F57°F97%1010 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA24 mi98 minESE 510.00 miOvercast62°F60°F95%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from LFI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E11E12E12--SE11E14
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1 day agoSE3SE6SE4SE4E6E8SE12SE13E13
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E14--------------E12E13------
2 days agoSE3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmE4E8E10E10SE11E11SE12SE11E10SE7SE6SE8S4SE4SE4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for New Point Comfort, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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New Point Comfort
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:33 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:36 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.71.31.82.32.52.321.50.90.40.10.10.40.91.52.12.42.42.21.71.10.5

Tide / Current Tables for York Spit Light, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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York Spit Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:23 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:26 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.81.41.92.32.42.31.91.40.80.30.10.10.411.62.12.42.42.11.610.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.