Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mathews, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 6:25PM Thursday October 18, 2018 2:50 PM EDT (18:50 UTC) Moonrise 2:32PMMoonset 12:12AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1255 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
This afternoon..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 1255 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds into the region through Friday. The next cold front crosses the local area Saturday.


Hourly Forecast for Marine Location Near Mathews CDP, VA
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location: 37.35, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181747
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
147 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure builds over the mid atlantic region today
and Friday. The next cold front crosses the region during Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1000 am edt Thursday...

1035mb high pressure is centered over the midwest this morning
and is building across the mountains into the mid-atlantic with
+3 mb 3hr pressure rises observed over the area. There is still
a band of cirrus over NE nc, but this is thinning. Otherwise
sunny this morning with temperatures in the low mid 50s. The
center of the high will continue to build eastward today,
providing a sunny or mostly sunny sky and cool temps. Highs will
range from the mid to upper 50s n, to around 60 or lower 60s s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
As of 355 am edt Thursday...

tonight into Fri morning will be the coldest of the season so
far, as ~1030mb high pressure settles over the region. Forecast
lows are in the lower to mid 30s for the piedmont, interior
coastal plain, and interior md ERN shore. Some colder locations
potentially could drop to 32f given ideal radiational cooling
conditions and a dry airmass. Patchy frost has been maintained,
but frost could potentially be more widespread, especially for
the interior coastal plain and piedmont. Elsewhere, lows should
be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. High pressure will gradually
slide offshore by Fri aftn. Mostly sunny and milder with highs
ranging thru the 60s.

A cold front approaches from the NW Fri evening night, and
pushes across the region during sat. Pops are ~60-70% for
showers, with mainly light QPF between 0.15-0.35". Lows fri
night in the 50s, with highs on Sat ranging fm the mid 60s to
arnd 70. Pcpn will end fm NW to SE fm arnd midday Sat into early
sat evening.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm edt Wednesday...

forecast period begins with a rather progressive upper trough
dropping across the northeastern CONUS from the great lakes.

Associated surface cold front pushes offshore Sat night into
early Sunday morning. Sky quickly clears out Sat night, as
drier air moves in from the N nw. Lows will range from the low-
mid 40s NW to the low 50s in coastal SE va NE nc.

Expect cool, dry weather to prevail for the remainder of the
medium range period. Low-level CAA continues on Sunday, with
h85 temperatures will range from -1c to -4c Sunday afternoon),
with the surface high pressure to move overhead Sun night. This
results in high temperatures only in the mid-upper 50s on
Sunday. With the high (nearly) overhead, expect a cold night
across the area Sunday night, with mid-upper 30s inland low 40s
along the immediate coast, with temperatures possibly
approaching a freeze over inland spots early Monday morning.

Winds turn back to the south by Mon pm, allowing for a very
modest warm-up for early next week. Low pressure (sfc- aloft)
passes well to our north on Tue tue night. This will drag
another cold front through our area late tue- wed. However, this
will likely be a dry fropa. Highs in the upper 50s-low 60s on
mon rising into the mid 60s area-wide on tue, with morning lows
in the upper 30s-mid 40s on tue.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 150 pm edt Thursday...

high pressure is building in from the NW as of 18z, with a sunny
sky, and N to NW wind generally 10-15kt. High pressure will
build over the region tonight with a calm to very light wind
under a clear sky. High pressure slides offshore Friday with a
sw wind of 5-10kt developing later in the morning through the
aftn. Mostly sunny with some increasing high clouds later in the
aftn.

A cold front approaches from the NW Friday evening and moves
through the area late Friday night into Saturday. This will
bring a period of mainly light rain, along with the potential
for lower CIGS vsby. Breezy conditions are expected by Sunday in
a NW wind behind the cold front. High pressure returns Monday
and slides offshore Tuesday.

Marine
As of 355 am edt Thursday...

sca's remain in effect this morning as the CAA surge continues
behind the cold front. The surge subsides allowing winds to go below
sca levels this aftrn and tonight as the high builds over the area.

Waves 3-4 ft with seas 4-6 ft, both subsiding this aftrn.

The high shifts offshore late Fri and Fri night, allowing for the
return ssw to increase to btwn 10-20 kt (minimal sca's possible),
the next cold front crosses the waters Sat night into Sunday. Data
supports another strong CAA surge btwn 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kts.

Hydrology
As of 1000 am edt Thursday...

river flood warnings continue on the appomattox for matoaca,
and on the nottoway river at sebrell. See flsakq for site-
specific details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz656-
658.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Ajz tmg
short term... Ajz tmg
long term... Eri mam
aviation... Ajz
marine... Jdm mpr
hydrology... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 8 mi32 min NNE 11 G 15 56°F 1029.4 hPa
44072 10 mi30 min N 9.7 G 16 57°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 15 mi32 min WNW 13 G 15 57°F 69°F1028.5 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 15 mi20 min N 12 G 16 56°F 1030.1 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi32 min NNW 13 G 19 1029.9 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 19 mi38 min N 13 G 18 70°F
44087 23 mi20 min 71°F2 ft
CHBV2 24 mi38 min NNW 14 G 22 56°F 1027.8 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi80 min NNW 2.9 58°F 1031 hPa39°F
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 26 mi38 min ENE 5.1 G 11 56°F 1028.4 hPa
44064 26 mi20 min N 12 G 16 56°F 1028.7 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 28 mi38 min 71°F1028.9 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 28 mi38 min NW 11 G 14 58°F 1029.1 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 32 mi32 min NNW 14 G 20 55°F 1027.3 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 32 mi32 min N 5.1 G 8 57°F 1028.8 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 35 mi32 min NNW 6 G 13 56°F 65°F1029.1 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 40 mi38 min NNE 4.1 G 8 60°F 73°F1028.5 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 41 mi20 min 72°F5 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi38 min NW 12 G 15 54°F 65°F1029.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi20 min WNW 12 G 18 54°F 1029 hPa

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA19 mi54 minNNE 710.00 miFair60°F36°F41%1029.8 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA20 mi56 minN 910.00 miFair60°F35°F39%1029.1 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA24 mi54 minNNW 510.00 miFair60°F36°F41%1028.7 hPa

Wind History from LFI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE8E8NE7NE5CalmNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmS4SW4SW5W5W7W8NW7NW6NW7W6W10
2 days agoSW17
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SW13S10S9S10SW9SW10SW10SW9SW9SW9SW13W7N13N7N11NE10N12N12N11N5E8

Tide / Current Tables for New Point Comfort, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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New Point Comfort
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:48 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:58 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:11 PM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:50 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.11.51.92.12.22.11.81.51.10.90.80.91.21.622.32.42.42.21.81.410.8

Tide / Current Tables for York Spit Light, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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York Spit Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:38 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:48 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:01 PM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:40 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.21.61.92.12.121.71.41.10.80.80.91.21.622.32.42.32.11.71.310.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.