Friday, April26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mathews, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:50PM Friday April 26, 2019 4:42 AM EDT (08:42 UTC) Moonrise 1:01AMMoonset 11:04AM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 349 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am edt this morning through Saturday afternoon...
Through 7 am..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and early morning, then becoming S late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 349 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. A strong cold front crosses the region this afternoon and evening. High pressure builds into the area on Saturday. Low pressure tracks north of the area Sunday.


Hourly Forecast for Marine Location Near Mathews CDP, VA
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location: 37.35, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 260812
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
412 am edt Fri apr 26 2019

Synopsis
A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. A strong cold
front crosses the region this afternoon and evening. High pressure
builds into the area on Saturday. Low pressure tracks north of
the area Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 315 am edt Friday...

latest msas has the warm front ivof the i64 corridor back to a low
over ohio. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front extends south across the
tn ky valley. Models show the warm front moving north of the area
later this morning with the cold front crossing the region this
aftrn and erly eve. Showers out ahead of the system this morning may
actually decrease in coverage for a few hr period after sunrise
before addntl shwrs tstms develop by late morning and erly aftrn
then continue to move east towards the coast by 00z.

Spc conts to have the most of the area in a slght risk today for a
nearly solid line of convection along the cold frontal passage.

Models still show some backing of the low level winds to a due south
this aftrn along with 40-50 kt SW winds in the mid levels. Thus,
enough shear will be present along with some destabilization in the
bndry layer for the svr potential. Sern va NE nc seem to be the
areas with the most instability due to some morning heating.

Expect the line of convection to dvlp across the mts later this
morning then intensify as it crosses the piedmont on its way to the
coast by erly eve. Will also have to watch for a few leading
supercells out ahead of the main line by erly aftrn, especially if a
differential heating bndry sets up. While an isolated tornado will
be possible, main threat will be straight line winds, with the
timing btwn 18z-22z western half 21z-01z ERN half. Chc likely pops
this morning ramp up to categorical this aftrn. A decent push of
moisture and incrg pw's will likely lead to lclly hvy downpours. In
addition, pressure gradient quickly tightens this morning resulting
in south winds bcmg gusty to btwn 20-30 kts ahead of the cold front.

Highs 70-75 nwrn zones, 75-80 sern zones where some am Sun is psbl.

The front pushes off the coast by or shortly after 00z. Models show
some moisture lingering behind the FROPA for sct shwrs across the
east during the eve. Otw, clearing across the west with enought caa
to allow dew points to drop into the 30s. Look for temps by 12z to
range from near 40 at lku to the lwr 50s along the SE coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday night
As of 315 am edt Friday...

high pressure builds into the sern states Sat behind the departing
low. Mostly sunny and rather breezy with lower humidity. West winds
become gusty btwn 20-30 mph. Highs upr 60s-lwr 70s. Mstly clr sat
eve with increasing clouds after midnite. A few shwrs psbl late
across the nwrn zones. Lows upr 40s NW to low-mid 50s se.

Next quick moving system tracks north of the local area sun. This
will bring more clouds and slght chc pops across the north sun
morning, then dry with decreasing clouds in the aftern. A period of
more clouds and a 20% pop to NRN areas early Sunday. Highs in the
mid-upr 70s except lwr 80s se. Mstly clr and cool Sun nite. Lows in
the 40s to lwr 50s se.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 315 am edt Friday...

high pressure will move off the coast Monday and winds will turn out
of the south. A frontal boundary will stall just north of the area
wed-fri. A few waves of low pressure will move along the boundary
bring a chance of showers, mostly north of the cwa. With the
uncertainty of the location of the boundary, slight pops (20-30%)
were added with iso thunderstorms in the afternoon. Grids will have
highs in the low 80s each day and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Aviation 08z Friday through Tuesday
As of 130 am edt Friday...

latest msas shows a warm front across va which is progged to lift
north of the local area later this morning. This puts the area in
the warm sector ahead of a strong cold front that will cross the
area between 18z-00z.VFR conditions to start off the period but
will have to watch sct-bkn st along the ERN shore thru 12z.

South winds increase after 12z and become gusty btwn 25-30 kts as
the pressure gradient increases ahead of the cold front. Shwrs will
be sct out ahead of the front this morning but expect CIGS to remain
in theVFR category, although vsbys may lower for a short time during
any heavier rainfall.

The latest models continue to show a line of convection as the cold
front crosses the area. SPC has the entire area in a slght risk for
damaging wind gusts with this line. Given this scenario, confidence
high enough so that I went ahead and tried to time this line of tstms
across the area this aftrn with a few hr tempo group first starting
at ric (18-21z), phf (19-22z), sby orf (20-23z) and ecg (20-24z).

MVFR cigs, ifr vsbys in hvy rain along with gusts over 30 kts psbl.

Sct shwrs linger behind the front for a few hrs before drier air
filters in from the west after midnight.

Outlook...

vfr dry with high pressure returning Sat along with gusty wnw winds.

MainlyVFR conditions continue Sun mon.

Marine
As of 400 am edt Friday...

a warm front will lift north of the area this morning, with the
entire waters becoming ssw and increasing to 10-20 kt, as a cold
front start to approach fm the west. The cold front will cross
the region this aftn and evening. Ahead of the front, ssw winds
will increase to 15 to 25 knots over a majority of the waters
by this aftn. In addition to the breezy conditions out ahead of
the front, showers and thunderstorms (some strong to severe)
will develop and cross the waters this aftn and evening. These
storms may produce damaging wind gusts and special marine
warnings may be needed for these storms.

The front crosses the waters this evening into early tonight,
with winds shifting to the W then NW behind the boundary. Strong
nw or W winds 15-25 kt with gusts to around 30 knots will be
common tonight into Sat morning. Winds may briefly gust to 35
knots over the northern most coastal waters early Sat morning,
however these will likely be brief and confined to mainly out 20
nm, thus no gale headlines at this time. Expect a slow diminishing
trend in winds during the remainder of sat, as low pressure moves
farther away to the nne and high pressure builds back over the
southeast states. All sca's should be allowed to expire by sat
evening.

Sub-sca conditions are expected late Sat into Sun morning, as
high pressure moves farther out to sea. Low pressure will pass
by just to the north of the region during sun, dragging another
cold front across the area. This may bring another period of
sca conditions, esply Sun night into Mon morning, as winds turn
to the N or NE behind the front. Calmer marine conditions are
anticipated for Mon aftn into tue.

In additions to the gusty conditions Fri evening into sat,
waves seas will also be on the increase. Seas build to 4 to 7
feet with seas as high as 8 feet across the north and out 20 nm.

Waves in the bay build to around 3 to 4 feet. Seas diminish
through the day on sat.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt
Saturday for anz635>637-650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 pm edt
Saturday for anz630>632-634-638.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 pm edt
Saturday for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 pm edt
Saturday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Cp
aviation... Mpr
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 8 mi49 min S 8 G 8.9 63°F 1007.8 hPa
44072 10 mi53 min 62°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 15 mi49 min S 5.8 G 7.8 62°F 63°F1005.5 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 15 mi49 min S 2.9 G 4.1 63°F 66°F1007 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 19 mi49 min SSE 6 G 8 61°F
44087 23 mi43 min 65°F1 ft
CHBV2 24 mi49 min SSE 6 G 8 64°F 1006.6 hPa
44064 26 mi53 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 64°F 1007.4 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 26 mi49 min SSW 12 G 15 70°F 1006.6 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 28 mi49 min 65°F1007.4 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 28 mi49 min SW 11 G 12 69°F 1007.8 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 32 mi49 min SSW 7 G 11 68°F 1007.5 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 32 mi49 min SSW 8 G 11 70°F 1007.5 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 35 mi49 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 66°F1007.1 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 40 mi49 min SW 4.1 G 7 70°F 69°F1007.7 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 41 mi43 min 63°F2 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi49 min S 2.9 G 2.9 61°F 66°F1007.2 hPa

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA19 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miFair64°F63°F100%1008.7 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA20 mi49 minS 310.00 miFair62°F59°F90%1007.4 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA24 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miA Few Clouds63°F59°F90%1007.7 hPa

Wind History from LFI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E5E6E5--SE4NE9NE6NE9NE8E5NE8E6E7N3NE4NE5NE4NE5SE4SE3SE3CalmSW4
1 day agoSW11SW10SW10SW11W6--SW6W6W8
G15
SW10NE12NE9NE11NE8E5E6E4SE3----E5E3E4E5
2 days agoSW6SW7W4W5W6W7NW7W8SW8SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for New Point Comfort, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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New Point Comfort
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:59 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:39 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:28 PM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:42 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.82.12.32.21.91.51.10.70.50.50.711.41.8221.81.51.10.70.50.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for York Spit Light, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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York Spit Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:49 AM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:29 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:18 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:32 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.92.22.22.11.81.410.70.50.50.71.11.51.821.91.71.410.70.50.50.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.