Sunday, November19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Mathews, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:54PM Sunday November 19, 2017 3:48 AM EST (08:48 UTC) Moonrise 7:37AMMoonset 6:03PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1242 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Overnight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. Scattered showers after midnight. Numerous showers late.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 1242 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A very strong and fast moving cold front crosses the waters Sunday morning. High pressure returns for early next week.

Hourly Forecast for Marine Location Near Mathews CDP, VA
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location: 37.35, -76.25     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 190821
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
321 am est Sun nov 19 2017

A strong cold front moves across the area this morning then
pushes off the coast by midday. High pressure builds into the
area this afternoon through Monday, before sliding offshore
Monday night through midweek. The next cold front crosses the
area on Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
Front now just to the west of the local area this morning, with
pre-frontal showers now pushing across the piedmont toward the
i-95 corridor. With the moisture being pinched off from the
south, the expectation is that the rain showers will be
diminishing as they move through the area. Still, QPF looks to
be on track W western sections of the forecast area could see
up to a quarter inch of rainfall. By the time the front reaches
the coast, the expectation is of just scattered showers.

Hi-res models jiving very well with obs thus far, and a period
of rather gusty winds (30-40 mph) still anticipated over the
next few hours, with winds maxing out immediately behind the
frontal passage across the entire area, as some of the cold air
surge gets mixed down by strong subsidence behind the front.

Winds decrease slightly later this morning, but remain breezy
through the day, owing to still-tight pressure gradient and
mixing up to 875 mb. NW winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph (strongest
far north and md eastern shore) through the afternoon before
they drop off.

Temperatures at 08z remain in the low to mid 60s (upper 50s far
west) across the local area. Temperatures do fall off quickly
behind the front over the piedmont, reaching the upper 40s low
50s by sunrise.

Cold front and sct showers along the coast just after sunrise
will push offshore by mid-morning. Subsequent subsidence will
allow for quick scouring out of the vertical column, with mostly
sunny conditions most zones by late morning. Blustery with
gusty w-nw winds and only a slow rise in temps despite the
plentiful sunshine. Highs in the mid 50s- lwr 60s.

Sfc high settles over the sern states tonight through Monday,
sliding offshore Monday night into Tuesday. Look for early
morning lows in the mid upper 20s piedmont to mid 30s far se
zones under a mainly clear sky.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
Rather benign weather pattern to start the holiday week.

Aforementioned high pressure sliding offshore of the southeast
coast will maintain dry weather across the mid-atlantic and
southeast. Model thicknesses recover nicely and should allow for
a pair of pleasant late fall days. Highs Mon in the upr 40s to
low 50s eastern shore. Low to mid 50s west of the bay. Partly to
mostly clear Mon night. Not quite as cool as flow turns around
to the w-sw, with some increasing mid to high clouds late. Early
morning lows in the 30s to near 40 se. Warmer in return flow on
Tuesday. Could see a few showers in association with a weak low
pressure sliding along the coastal carolinas, but have kept the
daylight hours dry and held to slight low end chance Tuesday
night for now. Highs Tue in the upr 50s to lwr 60s. Lows in the
40s to low 50s SE zones.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Model differences make for a challenging mid week and holiday
fcst. The next cold front progged to cross the area tues nite.

Challenge comes from just how much moisture gets entrained ahead
of the front from a trof off the carolina coast and weak low
progged to move NE along it? GFS much more aggressive with the
moisture than the ecmwf. For now, elected to keep measurable
rainfall east of i95 Tue nite and Wed with slight chc pops
across the east thurs. Lows Tue nite in the 40s to near 50 se.

Highs Wed 55-60. Lows Wed nite in the 30s to lwr 40s se. Cool
thurs with highs mid 40s-lwr 50s.

Dry and cool Fri and Sat as high pressure builds into the area.

Highs Fri 50-55. Lows mid 30s-lwr 40s. Highs Sat 55-60.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr conditions across area terminals early this morning with
lowering thickening clouds out ahead of approaching cold front.

The front crosses the region through 12z this morning, and is
bringing some pre-frontal showers to the terminals during this
period. Overall, expectVFR conditions through this timeframe,
with some short-lived MVFR vsbys possible in heavier showers.

Otherwise, main concerns will be the potential for gusty winds
and wind shear this morning. Models continue to show 35 to 50
knots at 2000 feet, thus continued the mention of wind shear
ahead of the cold front in the forecast. The front exits the
region by or shortly after sunrise on Sunday with winds becoming
w-nw post frontal.VFR conditions are expected through the day
today, but winds will remain gusty out of the W NW with gusts
as high as 30 to 35 knots.

Outlook: high pressure builds over the region Sunday evening
through Monday, then tracks off the southeast coast on Tuesday.

Vfr conditions are expected during this time frame.

Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was cntrd off the mid atlc
coast, while sfc low pressure was cntrd over extrm WRN oh. A
cold front extended SW fm the low thru SRN in and down into the
lower ms valley. Ssw winds were 10-20 kt with gusts into the
upper 20s (kt) late this aftn over the waters. The pressure
gradient between the high offshore and the approaching cold
front will tighten this evening into early Sun morning,
resulting in SW winds increasing to 20-30 kt with gusts ranging
from 25-40 kt. The cold front will cross the waters generally
between 11z-14z Sun morning, with winds then shifting to the nw
behind the front. On the late this aftn fcst, have decided to go
ahead and hoist the gale warning (one headline) for the entire
coastal waters, due to gale conditions (gusts) expected within
the next 12 hrs. Also, for now, have kept sca's in effect for
all the other waters, even though there could be isolated gusts
to 35 kt at the mouth of the ches bay or the currituck snd.

Decent cold air advection, a persistent tight pressure gradient,
and rapid pressure rises (5-9mb) behind the front will all
contribute to a continuation of strong NW winds 20-30 kt with
gusts of 25-40 kt through sun. Breezy to windy conditions will
prevail over much of the area on sun, and generally uniform
with slightly stronger winds occurring over the warmer waters.

Winds should remain generally unchanged Sun night with NW winds
averaging 15-25 kt with gusts averaging 30 kt. Will still have
to monitor for possible gale gusts at the mouth of the ches bay
or the currituck snd during sun. A secondary surge in NW winds
may be possible Sun night, as the coldest part of the airmass
swings across the area. However, relaxing pressure gradient with
high pressure building over the gulf coast states into the tn
valley will likely prevent a very strong surge from happening.

High pressure continues to build over the southeast states into
the SRN mid atlc region Mon mon night, then sliding out to sea
on tue. Calmer sub-sca conditions anticipated Mon aftn into wed.

The fan on the temperature sensor at the richmond ASOS (kric)
has likely failed, causing erroneous temperature readings. The
contract observer is augmenting the official METAR observations
(hourly METAR and specis). However, the 5-min high resolution
data is automated directly from the sensor and is subject to
reporting this erroneous data. As such, do not rely on the 5 min
temperature data from kric until our techs can repair the
sensor, likely on Monday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Monday for anz633-635>638.

Gale warning until 3 pm est this afternoon for anz634-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Monday for anz630>632.

Gale warning until 4 am est Monday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mpr mam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Ajb mam
marine... Tmg

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi79 min S 4.1 65°F 998 hPa53°F
44096 33 mi58 min 58°F4 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 41 mi49 min 58°F5 ft

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA19 mi53 minSSW 21 G 2810.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy64°F53°F67%999 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA20 mi55 minSW 14 G 2110.00 miFair64°F53°F68%998.4 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA24 mi1.9 hrsSSW 11 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F53°F70%998.6 hPa

Wind History from LFI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW5S6S8S9S10SW11SW16
1 day agoNW9
2 days ago1322SW8W8W8W10W9W10NW8

Tide / Current Tables for New Point Comfort, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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New Point Comfort
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Sun -- 03:06 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:20 AM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:53 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:03 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:36 PM EST     2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for York Spit Light, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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York Spit Light
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Sun -- 02:56 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:10 AM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:43 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:03 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:26 PM EST     2.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.