Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mathews, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:29PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 11:45 PM EDT (03:45 UTC) Moonrise 11:14AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1023 Pm Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Overnight..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers late this evening, then a slight chance of showers.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming W late. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely. Tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1023 Pm Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A frontal boundary drops into the area tonight and Wednesday, then stalls across the region through the end of the week.

Hourly Forecast for Marine Location Near Mathews CDP, VA
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location: 37.35, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 200135
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
935 pm edt Tue jun 19 2018

Synopsis
A frontal boundary will remain weak across the area tonight
and Wednesday, then settles near the virginia north carolina
border Thursday. The front drops farther south into the
carolinas Friday as high pressure builds over the new england
coast.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 930 pm edt Tuesday...

latest analysis indicates what has become a very weak frontal
boundary draped across central southern va with wnw flow aloft.

Earlier line of thunderstorms has now become more disorganized
across south central va where likely pops will persist through
midnight, with generally scattered showers and tstms across se
va NE nc. Its mainly just showers now over metro richmond and
points east to the peninsula and va eastern shore. Additional
tstms through 06z will be mainly over far southern va and NE nc,
with pops gradually diminishing to only 20-40% from 04-06z and
20% or less after 06z. With sfc dew pts still in the mid 70s
most areas, the front has certainly weakened and will more or
less wash out diminish overnight early Wed morning. Some patchy
fog low clouds possible after midnight but with skies expected
to partially clear out at best, do not anticipate dense fog at
this time. Continued very muggy tonight, with lows ranging from
around 70 f across the NW and in the low- mid 70s elsewhere.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

the frontal boundary will remain across the area on Wednesday,
again serving as the focus for mainly afternoon evening storms.

With the mid level ridge being suppressed slightly over the
area on Wednesday, the mid- upper level flow is slightly
stronger than today. However, stability will be higher on
Wednesday due to more clouds and less afternoon heating. As
such, although a strong to severe storm is possible on Wednesday
afternoon, it is a fairly low probability. The best coverage
will be along and north of the frontal boundary and where the
models suggest surface low development over northern va. As
such, have went with likely pops north of i-64 and generally
chance pops south. Another warm day on Wednesday, although not
as warm as today. Generally temps in the mid-upper 80s north and
lower 90s south. May be close to heat advisory criteria of 105
across NE nc Wed aftn, but for now it looks like the MAX hi will
be around 103.

The front settles over the southern part of the forecast area
wed night into Thursday. This will keep the best chance for
showers storms across southern va NE nc as a high pres ridge
builds from the ne. Will go with likely pops Thu aftn and thu
night across the southern tier tapering to chance pops to the
north. With the relatively stable onshore flow, am not expecting
much thunderstorm activity especially Thu night into Friday.

Onshore flow will keep temps in the 80s to around 90 on
Thursday, and in the low-mid 80s on Friday.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 300 pm edt Monday...

a warm frontal boundary is lifted across the region during the
day on Saturday as a low pressure system tracks from near the
great lakes to the northeast. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible during the day on Saturday as the boundary lifts north
across the region. Sunday will likely feature warmer and drier
conditions as the low pressure system tracks well north of the
region, putting the area in S SW flow. A shower or thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out during the day on Sunday as a surface trough
may continue to linger across the region. The attendant cold
front pushes southward across the region Sunday night into
Monday bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms.

The frontal boundary pushes south during the day on Monday with
lingering pops across southern portions of the region. High
pressure builds in north of the area Tuesday bringing drier and
cooler conditions to the region for early next week.

Highs on Saturday will range from near 90 across the south to the
mid 80s across the NE as the boundary lifts north across the region.

Sunday will likely be the warmest day of the extended period with
s SW flow and lower chances for precipitation, highs will generally
be in the lower 90s. Cooling off early next week as a cold front
passes through the region, temperatures will generally be in the mid
to upper 80s on Monday with even cooler conditions on Tuesday. Low
temperatures will generally be in the lower 70s Friday night through
Sunday night. Cooler low temperatures are anticipated early next
week.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 925 pm edt Tuesday...

afternoon and evening convection continues to plaque portions of
the region with some MVFR to occasionally ifr visibilities. The
majority of the convection is now south of all terminal sites
in va and just impacting ecg now. As the convection wanes over
the next few hours should see a return toVFR conditions.

However, during the overnight hours with the flow turning to the
east, models show lots of low level moisture lingering and with
light winds, could see some lowering of the ceilings and
visibilities for ric phf sby. Have kept conditions at MVFR
levels but could see some lower ceilings especially for sby. Any
restrictions should improve to MVFR levels by 13z with cu
development expected later in the morning.

A weak cold front will settle over the area Wednesday afternoon
and evening with another round of showers tstms expected across
the region. The boundary shifts farther S by Thursday, with the
best potential for aftn evening showers tstms mainly over
srn SE va and NE nc. Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday
as high pressure over coastal new england results in onshore
flow. The potential for aftn evening showers tstms returns
Saturday.

Marine
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

no headlines in the short term today through Thursday. Current
observations show generally west winds of 5 to 10 knots over the
waters. Seas range from 1 to 2 feet and waves 1 foot. A boundary
will slide south across the waters later this afternoon and
overnight turning the winds to the north and then northeast, and
also bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Winds will
remain light this evening and overnight, outside of any
thunderstorms, generally 10 knots or less. The frontal boundary is
expected to lift back north over the waters late Wednesday into
Thursday. Winds will turn back to the SE and then the S SW as this
boundary lifts north, winds and seas are still expected to remain
sub small craft advisory criteria. The front lingers near the waters
during the day Thursday before dropping south of the region once
again late Thursday into Friday. Winds become east and increase
slightly Thursday through Friday, 10 to 15 knots. Seas generally 2
to 3 feet and waves 1 to 2 feet through Friday morning.

Climate
As of 930 pm edt Tuesday...

a record high was tied this afternoon at norfolk (101 degrees).

Early morning lows had temporarily been above previous record
high mins at most sites, but the rain this evening has dropped
the temperatures and some of these may not stand.

* site record high record high min
* ric: 103 (1944) 74 (2015)
* orf: 101 (2018 1944) 77 (2017)
* sby: 96 (1993) 74 (2017)
* ecg: 100 (1944) 78 (2017)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Mrd
long term... Ajb
aviation... Ess mrd
marine... Ajb
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 8 mi46 min NW 12 G 13 76°F 1012 hPa (+0.4)
44072 10 mi36 min NNW 9.7 G 12 78°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 15 mi36 min NNW 9.7 G 12 77°F 1010.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi46 min NW 9.9 G 11 1011.6 hPa (+0.7)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 19 mi46 min N 4.1 G 8 81°F
CHBV2 24 mi46 min N 9.9 G 12 78°F 1010.2 hPa (+0.4)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi76 min WSW 1.9 82°F 1013 hPa82°F
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 26 mi46 min WNW 6 G 7 77°F 1010.1 hPa (-0.3)
44064 26 mi36 min N 9.7 G 12 79°F 1010.9 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 28 mi46 min WNW 4.1 G 6 77°F 1010.9 hPa (-0.3)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 28 mi46 min 80°F1010.7 hPa (-0.3)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 32 mi46 min WNW 5.1 G 6 78°F 1009.4 hPa (+1.0)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 32 mi46 min W 4.1 G 5.1 78°F 1010.9 hPa (-0.0)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 35 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 76°F 86°F1011 hPa (+0.8)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 40 mi46 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 78°F 83°F1010.8 hPa (+0.7)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 41 mi46 min 77°F2 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi46 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 81°F1011.2 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA19 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miLight Rain76°F75°F100%1011.5 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA20 mi52 minN 310.00 miA Few Clouds76°F73°F91%1011.2 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA24 mi1.8 hrsWNW 910.00 miA Few Clouds76°F73°F92%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from LFI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W5W7NW8NW6NW6NW8W6W7W8W9W6NW7NW6W10W8E7E6CalmN22
G32
N7NW7CalmCalm
1 day ago--------------------------------SE5SE7S6SW5SW5CalmCalmW4
2 days agoW6W5W7NW7NW5W5NW5NW3W3NW6NW3CalmCalmS4SW8S10S9E10E8S8S4S4----

Tide / Current Tables for New Point Comfort, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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New Point Comfort
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Tue -- 12:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:13 AM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:46 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:51 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:12 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.82.32.62.52.11.50.90.3-0.1-0.10.10.61.31.92.32.42.21.81.30.70.200.10.5

Tide / Current Tables for York Spit Light, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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York Spit Light
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:03 AM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:36 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:41 PM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.92.42.52.421.40.80.2-0.1-0.10.20.71.422.32.42.21.71.10.60.200.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.