Tuesday, April24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gloucester Courthouse, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:49PM Tuesday April 24, 2018 8:48 PM EDT (00:48 UTC) Moonrise 1:20PMMoonset 2:24AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 701 Pm Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am edt Wednesday...
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft late. A chance of rain with a slight chance of tstms this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less late.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 701 Pm Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure approaches the local area from the southwest tonight, then will be slow to lift north of the area on Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns by Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gloucester Courthouse, VA
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location: 37.35, -76.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 242337
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
737 pm edt Tue apr 24 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks across virginia tonight... Then will be slow
to move away from the coast Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns
by Thursday.

Near term through Wednesday
Evening update as of 800 pm edt Tuesday...

latest msas has low pressure centered along the nc sc border SE of
clt. The steadiest and heaviest rainfall conts to lift NE with the
radar beginning to fill back in with rain as the local area remains
on the cooler side of the system. Thus, made several changes to the
grids early this evening based on the latest radar trends and sfc obs.

Expect periods of rain for the rest of the evening hours.

Forecast gets a bit more interesting later tonight as most of the high
res data suggests an area of mdt to psbl hvy rainfall along and east
of the ches bay between 04-10z as the low pressure system and associated
warm front lifts north. Thus, went ahead and beefed up the grids along
the coast for this ptntl, but held off on any thunder as it appears most
of the convection stays offshore. Otw, rain or shwrs continue across the
piedmont through the night. Patchy drizzle and areas of fog across the
piedmont as the column remains nearly saturated. Lows in the 50s to near
60 se.

Afternoon discussion as of 4 pm edt Tuesday
On Wednesday, the initial surface low and warm front will lift
north of the area, but the upper level low will settle over the
area. This will allow for some cooler air aloft to settle over
the area with more showers developing in the afternoon. Could
potentially see some thunder if there is enough heating ahead of
the upper lows arrival. Right now, it looks like it will stay a
little too cloudy, but it can't be ruled out especially east of
i-95. Guidance is pretty spread on temps tomorrow with the met
much cooler than the mav. Have generally gone in between with
temps in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
As of 400 pm edt Tuesday...

the upper low will exit the region early Wed night taking any
chance of rain with it. Show a gradual decrease in pops from sw
to NE during the evening. Behind this system the newer model
runs are not as aggressive in pushing the drier air with the
next sfc high into the region. This is more like what the gfs
had been depicting in previous runs. As a result have kept the
clouds a little longer and also raised overnight lows by a few
degrees getting closer to guidance in the low to mid 50s.

With the front not pushing as far south on Wed night into
Thursday and stalling more along the nc va border expect to see
a little less sunshine especially across SRN va NRN nc. The next
surface wave is now progged to arrive sooner on Thursday night.

So expect to see clouds on the increase during the afternoon and
could even see some light pcpn in the piedmont counties around
sunset. At this point held off on adding late afternoon pcpn but
will need to see how quick the overrunning develops. For highs
on Thursday did have readings back into the low to mid 70s with
the best warming in the eastern portion of the cwa.

With the next wave arriving sooner have sped up pops on Thursday
night and Friday morning. The best chance for rain looks to be
in the piedmont counties so have increased pops to 50 for now
and they may need to be increased. Once the surface low lifts
through the area by Friday morning should see the chances for
rain diminish by later morning early afternoon. For
temperatures, kept readings a little warmer thurs night with the
sw flow and clouds. For highs on Friday did keep highs in the
low to mid 70s as the return of the Sun in the afternoon should
allow for temperatures to warm especially ahead of the cold
front for Saturday.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 400 pm edt Tuesday...

gfs ECMWF differ early in this period with the GFS showing the last
in a series of S W trofs rounding the base of the long wave trof
late Fri night with it moving off the sern coast Sat ahead of a weak
frontal passage. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is drier with little if any
support for pcpn even with the frontal passage sat. A model blend
results in low chc shwrs across the sern zones late Fri night and
sat keeping the rest of the local area dry for now. Lows Fri nite
upr 40s-mid 50s. Highs Sat upr 60s-mid 70s, cooler at the beaches.

After that, some delightful spring weather on tap early next week as
high pressure builds SE from the gt lakes region Sun to a position
over the local area Mon then off the mid atlantic coast tue. Cool to
start then a warming trend. Highs Sun generally in the 60s. Lows in
the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Mon upr 60s-lwr 70s. Lows upr 40s-lwr
50s. Highs Tue 75-80.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 8 pm edt Tuesday...

low pressure will track NE across virginia tonight. The steadiest
and heaviest rain has pushed north of the local area with widespread
ifr CIGS and lower vsbys in both rain fog continues thru the night
and into Wed morning. High res data even shows an enhanced band of
heavier shwrs (psbl thunder along the coast or just offshore) as the
associated warm front lifts northward along the coast btwn 04-10z.

Gusty SE wind 15-25 kts along the coast slowly diminish as the low
tracks ne. Ptchy fog west of the bay with some drizzle across the
piedmont after midnite.

Upr level low then crosses the region Wed with the best support for
shwrs east of i95. Could also see an isltd TSTM if enuf heating occurs.

Conditions finally inprove by thurs as high pressure returns.

Outlook...

another area of low pressure will impact the region Thursday night sct
showers and MVFR conditions. A second cold front swings across the the
region on Saturday withVFR conditions returning on Sunday as high pres
builds into the area.

Marine
As of 300 pm edt Tuesday...

broad low pressure is situated over upstate sc this afternoon.

Meanwhile, high pressure is centered well off the new england coast.

The resultant pressure gradient between these two features is causing
east to southeast winds of 15-25 kt with gust up to 30 kt that will
last into this evening. Seas will continue to build to 6-10 ft by
this evening; waves reaching 3-5 ft, except up to 6 ft at the mouth
of the bay. Winds waves seas diminish subside overnight into
Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. Scas remain in
effect for all waters through late evening, with scas for the rivers
coming down at 11 pm tue, and for the bay sound at 1 am wed. Scas
have been extended into Thursday morning for the southern coastal
waters and Thursday afternoon for the northern coastal waters due to
seas remaining elevated. A high surf advisory for obx currituck will
also remain in effect until 5 am Wednesday for nearshore waves of 8-
10 feet.

Broad low pressure lifts north through the region during Wednesday
with ssw winds 5-15kt becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed night
into thurs morning. After a brief lull midweek the next low pressure
system then impacts the region Friday Saturday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... High surf advisory until 5 am edt Wednesday for ncz102.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
anz635>638.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Wednesday for anz634.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Wednesday for anz630>633.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for anz650-652-
654.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Thursday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Ess mpr
near term... Mpr ess
short term... Ess
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Jdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 6 mi78 min SE 5.1 59°F 1015 hPa59°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 12 mi48 min SE 17 G 21 57°F 56°F1013.5 hPa (-1.6)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 17 mi48 min SE 25 G 29 57°F 1014.2 hPa (-1.4)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 29 mi48 min SE 17 G 21 59°F 1013.5 hPa (-1.2)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 31 mi48 min ESE 18 G 23 59°F 1013.3 hPa (-0.8)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 32 mi48 min 56°F1013.2 hPa (-0.9)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 35 mi48 min ESE 24 G 29 1015.4 hPa (-1.2)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 35 mi48 min SE 14 G 19 60°F 1013.1 hPa (-1.5)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 36 mi48 min ESE 14 G 19 55°F
CHBV2 36 mi48 min ESE 22 G 26 56°F 1012.6 hPa (-2.3)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 43 mi48 min SE 13 G 19 61°F 58°F1013 hPa (-2.0)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 44 mi48 min ESE 19 G 25 56°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 45 mi48 min ESE 14 G 16 54°F 56°F1015.7 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA9 mi53 minESE 6 G 144.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F57°F94%1013.9 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA14 mi53 minESE 9 G 164.00 miOvercast58°F56°F94%1014.6 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi52 minESE 910.00 miOvercast59°F57°F94%1012.8 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA16 mi54 minESE 12 G 182.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist58°F55°F93%1013.5 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA23 mi52 minESE 14 G 215.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist58°F57°F100%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from JGG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSE4SE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E4SE6
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CalmE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6CalmCalmCalmCalmS6SE7SE6S8S7SE7E7SE8SE4E4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Clay Bank, York River, Virginia
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Clay Bank
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:23 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:31 PM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.51.11.72.42.832.82.31.710.50.20.20.61.21.92.42.82.82.41.91.20.6

Tide / Current Tables for Roane Point, York River, Virginia
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Roane Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:26 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:47 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:13 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:20 PM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.61.21.92.52.932.82.31.610.40.20.30.71.322.62.82.82.41.81.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.