Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nassawadox, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:19PM Sunday July 23, 2017 4:39 AM EDT (08:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:12AMMoonset 7:34PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 344 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Through 7 am..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 344 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains over the western atlantic as a persistent trough lingers over central virginia through today. A cold front pushes across the waters late Monday night into Tuesday. Then weak troughing persists along the mid atlantic coast the rest of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nassawadox, VA
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location: 37.4, -75.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230820
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
420 am edt Sun jul 23 2017

Synopsis
Very hot and humid conditions will continue over the region
today. A weakening cold front will gradually push across the
area late tonight through Monday and stall across the carolinas
through the middle of the upcoming week. Temperatures will cool
down to near normal levels Monday through midweek.

Near term through tonight
Latest analysis features a decaying MCS pushing offshore of the
delmarva early this morning. Sct to numerous batches of
additional convection occurring back into central va and farther
into the tn river valley.

Once again, a couple of headlines to deal with for the weather
story today. First, another very warm to hot summer day
expected. Another heat advisory issued for the southern 2 3 of
the CWA (along S of wal to ric to lunenburg co. Line), with
heat indices of 105 to 109 f expected. Could potentially reach
to 110+ briefly from the dismal swamp area down into NE nc but
do anticipate highs a little cooler than today so have held off
on this for now.

The other story once again is the potential for strong to severe
storms. Northern half of the area is once again in a convective
slight risk from spc... And a marginal excessive rainfall
outlook from wpc. As expected, a myriad of convective
boundaries evident on IR satellite and radar imagery, and
expect these boundaries to serve as a focusing mechanism for the
first wave of afternoon convection across the northern third of
the area. Cams indicating lingering clouds likely into the mid
morning hours over the piedmont to i-95. Will need to watch the
degree of lingering clouds into peak heating, as this will serve
to keep a lid on convection a bit longer. At this time, expect
subsidence behind the MCS to serve to clear us out by
midday... But this will bear watching.

Nam conest and time-lagged hrrr seem to be handling pop timing
reasonably well thus far, and have again leaned in their
direction for the aftn evening.

Upper trough over the grt lakes will continue to nudge e-se
towards the interior northeast today, with resultant height
falls likely to provide the trigger for additional convection
and perhaps another convective complex approaching late this
aftn through the evening. Given the high precipitable water
values (00z sounding indicating 2"+ at wal 1.88" at iad),
another round of heavy rainfall is possible. Have therefore
included some heavy rain wording over the eastern shore.

Cold front drops south into the area late tonight early Monday.

Convection again wanes toward morning. Continued warm and muggy
overnight, with lows ranging through the 70s.

Short term Monday through Tuesday
Cold front slated to pass through while weakening on mon. Deep
moisture shifts toward and south of the va nc border and
therefore will favor highest pops Mon similarly shifting south
across SE va & NE nc with 20% pops for the n. Slightly less
humid Monday over the NW cwa. Not quite as hot, with highs mon
90 to 95 f over most of the area. Front stalls in nc tue, with
mainly diurnal tstms possible again over the s, 15-20% n.

Seasonable highs upper 80s to lower 90s.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
High pressure moves off the coast Wed with any support for pcpn
across southern half of fa closer to a stalled frontal boundary.

Highs in the mid-upr 80s. Lows in the upr 60s-lwr 70s.

This boundary begins to drift north thurs resulting in slight
chc pops across the region. Highs in the upr 80s-lwr 90s. Lows
70-75.

Next boundary approaches from the north, then stalls across the
region Fri and sat. Chc pops each day though pcpn may tend to
concentrate across the southern half of fa Sat depending on how far
south the boundary actually gets. Highs Fri in the upr 80s- lwr 90s.

Lows in the upr 60s-mid 70s. Highs Sat in the mid-upr 80s.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr conditions at phf orf ecg... With MVFR ifr conds in shra tsra
at ric sby early this morning. Expect a return toVFR conditions
all terminals within the next few hours as convection wanes, and
expect a relative lull thereafter through early afternoon.

However, expect convection to re-develop ahead of an approaching
upper shortwave by mid-afternoon. In general, expect most
organized activity will be over the northern half of the area,
and have accounted for rain chances after 20z at ric sby.

However, confidence in areal coverage of storms remains quite
low ATTM and have elected to keep any vicinity thunder wording
out for now. Hoping cams will hone in a bit more on convective
chances for the 12z cycle, and will re-access at that time.

Outlook: convection slowly shifts south into south central va
and nc for Monday.VFR should dominate through this period, with
periods of periods of sub-vfr possible in heavier showers tsra.

A weak cold front pushes into the area for the mid week period.

Marine
High pressure is well-rooted over bermuda with a sfc thermal
trough in the lee of the mountains and flat zonal flow aloft
across the region. This pattern will persist through today
with a cold front approaching the waters on Monday... Slowly
crossing the waters late Monday night. Isolated to scattered
aftn evening thunderstorms will be possible each day. Main
impacts will be locally strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning. Winds will generally be SW AOB 15kt with
seas averaging 2-3ft and waves 1-2ft during this timeframe.

Models continue to hint at a brief uptick in wind speeds
tonight, which is likely associated with thunderstorms rather
than synoptically-driven conditions. As a result, any increase
in wind speeds will likely be covered by marine weather
statements or special marine warnings rather than SCA flags.

The cold front gradually stalls out just south of the area by
late Tuesday night Wednesday morning with weak troughing along
the mid atlantic carolina coasts. The troughing is expected to
persist in this area through the rest of the week. Best chances
for aftn evening thunderstorms should remain confined to srn
waters INVOF the weak trough as well as seabreeze boundaries.

Wind speeds AOB 15kt the rest of the week. Wind direction veers
to the north behind the cold front late Monday night Tuesday...

becoming onshore e-se Tuesday night through Thursday... Then
becoming s-sw Thursday night Friday. Seas average 2-4ft; waves
1-2ft.

Climate
Heat wave continues through today. The 2nd half of july is
climatologically the hottest few weeks of the year, so we still
may not set any daily records at our main climate sites. For
reference, record highs for today are listed below:
* date: sun(7 23)
* ric: 103 1952
* orf: 103 2011
* sby: 103 2011
* ecg: 104 1952

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Heat advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for ncz012>017-030>032-102.

Va... Heat advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for vaz065>068-078>090-092-093-095>100-512>516-518-520-
523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Lkb mam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mam
marine... Bmd
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 14 mi52 min E 4.1 G 6 76°F 85°F1008.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi52 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 1008.9 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi52 min WSW 11 G 14 77°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 31 mi40 min W 7.8 G 9.7 83°F 85°F1 ft1008.8 hPa (+0.0)
44072 32 mi40 min WSW 14 G 18 83°F 82°F1 ft
44089 32 mi40 min 73°F3 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 34 mi40 min 69°F3 ft
44064 34 mi40 min 18 G 23 82°F 76°F2 ft1008.4 hPa (-0.6)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 35 mi52 min WSW 15 G 18 83°F 1008.5 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi52 min SW 11 G 17 83°F
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 36 mi52 min WSW 21 G 26 82°F 78°F1008.3 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi52 min WSW 8.9 G 14 83°F 83°F1008 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 43 mi52 min SW 19 G 20 82°F 1008.6 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 45 mi52 min 82°F1009 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi52 min SW 8.9 G 12 82°F 1009 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi52 min WSW 13 G 18 82°F 1008.9 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA17 mi45 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F72°F95%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
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Sun -- 02:52 AM EDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:49 AM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:51 PM EDT     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:22 PM EDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.30.8-0.3-0.6-0.20.71.833.843.62.81.70.4-0.6-0.9-0.40.623.54.75.45.34.6

Tide / Current Tables for Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia
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Upshur Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:21 AM EDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:03 AM EDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:20 PM EDT     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:36 PM EDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.21.60.2-0.5-0.40.41.634.14.64.33.52.41.1-0.2-0.9-0.70.21.73.455.965.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.