Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
New Kent, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:57PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:17 AM EST (08:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:44AMMoonset 5:27PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 111 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Sunday afternoon...
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Showers likely after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely early in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 111 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure moves away from the carolina coasts today. A strong cold front crosses the waters Sunday morning. High pressure returns for early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Kent, VA
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location: 37.4, -76.9     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180248
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
948 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

High pressure traverses the area through tonight. The high
slides offshore Saturday with a cold front approaching the
region from the west late. The cold front moves across the area
late Saturday night into Sunday morning, producing scattered

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
1022mb high pressure is centered over the virginia and carolina
coastal plain this evening. Temperatures have dropped quickly
into the 30s this evening with a clear sky and a calm to light
wind. High pressure will gradually slide SE overnight. Clear
through the early overnight hours with increasing high clouds
late, especially N and w. Overnight lows should be achieved
within the next few hours, then temperatures should become
steady as high pressure slides offshore. Lows will mainly be
around 30f to the low 30s inland (upper 20s for the interior md
ern shore) and mid upper 30s for coastal SE va NE nc.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
Turning milder again on Saturday due to return flow around the
offshore high. Increasing pressure gradient due to advancing
midwest cold front will allow for breezy conditions late morning
into the afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35 mph (highest immediate
coast and eastern shore). Compressional warming out ahead of
the approaching cold front will drive maxima well into the
60s... To around 70 across SE va NE nc, with low to mid 60s
across northern zones. Quick dewpoint surge with warm front
lifting across the area Sat aftn night. Low level s-sw flow
quickly increasing pw values into the 1"-1.25" range after
00z sun. A brief window for showers coincident with narrow axis
of low-level convergence forcing ahead of the frontal passage late
sat evening (west) into early Sunday morning (east of i-95)
will require likely pops (60-70%) most areas Sat night, mainly
west of ric metro before 4am, then reaching the coast before
sunrise Sun morning. Convective parameters remain weak with the
fropa, owing to the timing and the progressive nature of the
system. Therefore, will keep thunder mention out of the
forecast. Lows Saturday night from the mid 40s piedmont to the
mid 50s coast. Some concern for gusty winds with and in the
immediate wake of the frontal passage. Gusts to 30-40 mph
(higher possible md counties and northern neck) possible late
sat night and Sunday morning.

Cold front pushes offshore early Sunday. After some lingering
clouds east (morning shower possible over coastal areas),
subsidence behind the front should result in a mostly sunny sky.

Winds diminish late afternoon as the gradient slackens. Cooler
with highs in the 50s... To near 60 SE coast.

Cool sfc high pressure centered over the tn valley Sunday night
will expand eastward into the mid-atlantic on Monday. We can
expect a clear sky and below normal temperatures. Lows Sunday
night in the mid upr 20s piedmont to the mid upr 30s coast.

Highs Monday in the upr 40s to low 50s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
High pressure moves offshore of the region during the day on Tuesday
allowing for a warming trend. Highs on Tuesday will climb into the
upper 50s to lower 60s and lows fall into the upper 30s to low 40s
inland (mid to upper 40s at the coast). Temperatures remain near
normal during the day on Wednesday before a mainly dry cold front
crosses the area Wednesday late afternoon evening. Introduced a
slight chance of pops with the passage of the front, but moisture
appears fairly limited at this time. A cooler airmass moves into the
region for thanksgiving and the end of the work week behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal for thanksgiving
day with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows dropping into
the lower 30s away from the coast. An offshore trough develops on
Friday which will bring a chance of rain for coastal areas.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure will slide offshore Saturday afternoon, a strong cold
front approaches the region Saturday night.VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period with only some high clouds. Clouds
will increase late Saturday as the front approaches the region.

Winds will be gusty ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, gusting
out of the southwest in excess of 20 knots at times.

Outlook: the cold front crosses the area late Saturday night into
Sunday morning with the possibility of sub-vfr ceilings and rain
showers with the frontal passage. High pressure builds back into the
area Sunday morning allowing for a return toVFR conditions through
the remainder of the weekend. Gusty northwest winds are expected
behind the front on Sunday morning afternoon. High pressure
gradually slides off the southeast coast Monday and Tuesday withVFR
conditions prevailing.

1000 pm update... Went ahead and made some tweaks to the headlines
with this update, mainly adding a small craft advisory to the
coastal zones and upping the start time of the small craft
advisories in the rivers. Southwest winds and seas increase tomorrow
afternoon as the front approaches the coastal waters, winds will
occasionally gust up to 30 knots tomorrow afternoon. Bumped up the
start time for the advisories over the rivers as it is looking more
likely that we see some gusts in excess of 20 knots tomorrow

Previous discussion... Quick moving weather systems will lead to some
rapidly changing conditions over the next 24-48 hrs. Sfc high moves
offshore tonight shifting winds from the N AOB 10 kt this evening to
the SW after midnight. Sca's for seas early this evening will end as
seas subside to 2-4 ft.

Pressure gradient quickly increases as a warm front pushes north
across the region sat. S-sw winds quickly ramp up into SCA levels
by the afternoon with gusts to 30 kts over most areas. Data suggests
offshore gusts to 35 kts possible across the coastal waters but not
until after 00z sun. Even the "old" boston technique suggests best
mixing not until after FROPA Sunday morning. Sharp pressure rises
behind it will combine with strong CAA to produce widespread high
end sca's to low end gales across the waters sun. Issue with this
forecast package is one of confidence given the nnw winds behind the
front should be stronger than the ssw winds ahead of it.

Thus, decided to go with a gale watch for the coastal waters sat
night into Sunday. Left strong sca's over the bay sound and rivers
for now. This way it gives later shifts the flexibility to upgrade
to a warning or keep strong scas. Ended the headlines at end of 4th
period per local policy, although sca's will likely be needed early

Tides coastal flooding
Gusty SW winds may push a few areas into the action stage during
Saturdays high tide cycle. Appears bishops head will approach
minor flooding thresholds then.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm Saturday to 4 pm est Sunday for

Small craft advisory from 10 am Saturday to 4 pm est Sunday
for anz632-634.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Saturday to 4 pm est Sunday for

Gale watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for

Small craft advisory from 10 am to 7 pm est Saturday for

Gale watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon
for anz656-658.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Saturday to midnight est
Saturday night for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Ajz jdm
short term... Jdm mam
long term... Ajb
aviation... Ajb jdm
marine... Ajb mpr
tides coastal flooding...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 10 mi47 min WSW 1.9 32°F 1019 hPa31°F

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA11 mi22 minN 010.00 miFair30°F29°F96%1019 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA15 mi22 minN 010.00 miFair36°F35°F100%1019 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA23 mi23 minS 410.00 miFair42°F30°F65%1018.6 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA23 mi19 minS 310.00 miFair43°F35°F75%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW5NW7NW7NW7N6W7NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmW4W5SW3SW5W6W3W6W7W10
2 days agoCalmNW3NW3N3NW3N4NW4NE5N5NE7CalmNW4NE3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for Lanexa, Chickahominy River, Virginia
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Sat -- 01:58 AM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:27 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:20 PM EST     3.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:27 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:07 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Sturgeon Point, James River, Virginia
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Sturgeon Point
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Sat -- 12:59 AM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:22 PM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:28 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:18 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.