Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Point, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday July 20, 2017 10:32 PM EDT (02:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:13AMMoonset 4:43PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 959 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt...becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 959 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains over the western atlantic as a persistent trough lingers over central virginia through the weekend. A weakening cold front approaches the waters Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Point, VA
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location: 37.44, -76.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 210135
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
935 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure builds toward the mid atlantic today into the
weekend, bringing increasingly hot and humid conditions to the
area. The hottest weather can be expected from Friday through
Sunday.

Near term through Friday
Current analysis indicates a weak sfc lee trough of low
pressure located from nj... Ssw to south central va and central
nc. The trough of low pressure aloft is now situated south of
the CWA and centered along the sc ga coast. The sky is partly
cloudy this evening under thin cirrus with some patches of
8-12kft altocu. Very warm and humid this evening with
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. A few
isolated showers tstms from earlier have now dissipated. Mainly
dry overnight. Earlier convection over oh in has weakened and
seems unlikely to hold together as a weak wave aloft crosses n
of the area overnight in the wnw aloft. Warmer than last night
with lows staying 70-75 f or higher tonight.

Model consensus has the upper ridge axis centered from the tn
valley to nc on Fri into early sat, with an upper trough over
the eastern great lakes and NE states. The core of the highest
850 temperatures on Fri (21-22c) will be over much of the local
area of Fri and with dew pts expected to be higher (only mixing
out to around 70 f inland and to the lower-mid 70s near the
coast). Expect heat indices to be more solidly into advisory
criteria (105 to 109 f) and have therefore issued a heat
advisory for most of the CWA (left coastal worcester nc outer
banks out for now with cooler temperatures as well as much of
the far SW where it will be slightly drier). Actual highs will
be around 100 f metro richmond to the mid upper 90s elsewhere
(locally cooler lower 90s immediate coast). As far as precip
chances, airmass appears too stable overall for much in the way
of pop-up storms during the day, but with wnw flow aloft and
some weak shortwave energy moving into the area by late aftn,
will have ~20% pops by mid late aftn over the NW 1 2 of the cwa.

Enough shear moves into the far NW for a marginal risk for
severe with wind being the main threat is any type of convective
complex can hold together upon crossing the mtns.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
Ramped pops up a bit more for Fri night especially N NE zones
closest to upper level shortwave energy tracking through the wnw
flow aloft. Very warm humid Fri night with lows mainly 75 to 80
f. Slightly cooler most areas for Sat due to potential for more
clouds and as core of 850 mb heat shifts a bit s. However, it
will be even more humid so expect at least southern portions of
the CWA to need a heat advisory even with highs on avg only in
the mid 90s. As airmass destabilizes more by Sat aftn early
evening, and as heights aloft drop, convection developing from
the NW will be more likely to hold together for at least 30-50%
pops across most areas (20% NE nc) from late Sat aftn through
sat night. Far N NE portions of the CWA are in a slight risk
where higher shear will reside with marginal risk for the
remainder of the cwa. Again wind will be the primary threat.

Lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s Sat night and continued hot
an humid with additional heat headlines likely needed for some
of the region on Sunday. Highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s
Sunday.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Long term period will feature near normal temps on avg and
occasional chances for rain. In general expect lwr temps than this
weekend as the broad upr-level ridge across the eastern CONUS breaks
down in response to an approaching upr-level trough. The trough and
associated low-level front will bring an increasing chance for rain
mon, but will cap pops at 40% for now due to uncertainties regarding
timing and available moisture. Further model divergence occurs tue
and wed, with the 12z ECMWF keeping the low-level boundary in the
vicinity and the 12z GFS pushing things offshore, so will maintain
low end pops (20-40%) through midweek, with the best chance over far
se areas. As for temps, after one more hot day Mon with highs up to
the mid 90s, expect mid upr 80s for Tue through thu.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
High pressure will prevail off the southeast coast tonight into
Friday, with a trough to the lee of the appalachians. This will
promote light SW flow of 5-10kt. Thin high clouds tonight, with
sct aftn CU Friday. Mainly dry with only a minimal chc (15-20%)
of showers tstms Friday aftn evening. Similar conditions persist
into Saturday with a 20-40% chc (highest n) of late aftn evening
showers tstms. A low probability of late aftn evening
showers tstms continues Sunday Monday, but overall primarily
dry. A weak cold front approaches from the NW Tuesday.

Marine
Extended period of sub-sca conditions continues this week into the
weekend. Pattern is stagnant with bermuda high pres centered well
offshore and typical summertime late day thermal troughs with S sw
winds averaging 5-10 kt, occasionally up to 15 kt especially tonight
due to a slight increase in the pressure gradient. Waves over the
bay 1-2 ft with seas over coastal wtrs 2-3 ft. The next (weakening)
cold front approaches the region late mon, dropping into the area
mon night tue. Mainly sub-sca conditions expected to continue
however with weak CAA behind the front, and just some 4-5 ft seas
psbl out 20 nm. Flow becomes N nely then Tue through Thu as the frnt
slides offshore and dissipates.

Climate
Heatwave is expected to develop, mainly Friday through Sunday.

The 2nd half of july is climatologically the hottest few weeks
of the year so we still may not set any daily records at our
main climate sites. For reference, record highs today through
Sunday are listed below:
* date: today(7 20) fri(7 21) sat(7 22) sun(7 23)
* ric: 103 1930 104 1930 103 1952 103 1952
* orf: 102 1942 101 1926 102 2011 103 2011
* sby: 104 1930 106 1930 104 1930 103 2011
* ecg: 104 1942 102 1987 104 1952 104 1952

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for mdz021>024.

Nc... Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for ncz012>017-
030>032.

Va... Heat advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for vaz048-061-062-
064-068-069-075>078-080>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb tmg
near term... Lkb ajz
short term... Lkb tmg
long term... Mas
aviation... Ajz
marine... Mas mam
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 2 mi62 min Calm 83°F 1015 hPa73°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 16 mi42 min SSW 7.8 G 12
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 20 mi50 min SSW 7 G 9.9 86°F 85°F1013.8 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 25 mi50 min SSW 11 G 12 86°F 1014.5 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 27 mi42 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 85°F 1014.1 hPa
44072 30 mi42 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 86°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 37 mi50 min SSW 8.9 G 11 84°F 1014.5 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 39 mi50 min SSW 13 G 15 86°F 1014.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 39 mi56 min S 11 G 13 1014.6 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 41 mi56 min 82°F1014.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 41 mi50 min SSW 8 G 9.9 83°F 87°F1013.4 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 44 mi56 min S 8.9 G 11 79°F
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 44 mi50 min SSW 7 G 8.9 86°F 1014.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi42 min SSW 9.7 G 12 84°F 1012.6 hPa
44064 46 mi42 min 7.8 G 7.8 82°F 1014.4 hPa
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 47 mi50 min SSW 8 G 9.9 85°F 72°F1014.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi56 min SSW 8 G 9.9

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA6 mi37 minS 510.00 miFair85°F71°F62%1014.2 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA14 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair88°F75°F66%1014.6 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA22 mi94 minS 510.00 miFair86°F74°F69%1013.8 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA24 mi38 minSSW 710.00 miFair85°F73°F70%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW3W3W5CalmS3S4SW4SW7SW10SW5S4S4S4S4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W5SW3CalmS5S5S4S4E7SE5SE5SE7SE6SE4E3
2 days agoSE3S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4SE7SE9S9SE11S10
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Roane Point, York River, Virginia
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Roane Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:38 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:36 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:03 PM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.60.10.10.411.72.32.72.72.31.710.3-0.1-0.20.211.82.73.33.53.42.8

Tide / Current Tables for Allmondsville, York River, Virginia
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Allmondsville
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:47 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:53 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.20.10.30.81.62.22.72.82.521.20.5-0-0.20.10.71.62.53.23.63.53.12.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.