Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Exmore, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:05PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 3:37 AM EDT (07:37 UTC) Moonrise 6:05AMMoonset 6:37PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1256 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt early this morning...
Rest of tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 1256 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Tropical storm jose will track northward while remaining well off the mid atlantic coast through tonight. Jose then moves northeast off the new england coast on Wednesday. High pressure will build into the region through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Exmore, VA
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location: 37.55, -75.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 200718
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
318 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the
end of the week. Tropical cyclone jose will continue to track
northeast to a position off the southern new england coast later
today, then meander there through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Ts jose is currently located about 200 miles south of nantucket mass
and moving NE at 9 mph. The effects on sensible wx continue to pull
slowly NE and away from the area today. In its wake, subsidence
results in a mstly sunny and unseasonably warm day. Watching the
moisture across the ky valley. Latest guidance suggests this
moisture dissipates as it crosses the mts after 18z. Even the
high res data suggests little if any convection makes it into
the swrn most zones. Kept the forecast dry with a silent 14 pop
across the swrn zones. H85 temps arnd 16c results in highs btwn
85-90 except low-mid 80s along the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
Models suggest any evening convection to the west slides SW of the
fa then dissipates after 00z across the nc piedmont. Otw, mstly clr
to pt cldy and warm tonight. Lows in the mid 60s to lwr 70s.

Any convection from the lingering moisture stays west and south of
the fa Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate into the
weekend. Expect pt to mstly sunny days with mstly clr to pt cldy
nights. Highs Thursday and Friday in the low-mid 80s except 75-80 at
the beaches. Lows from the lwr 60s NW to lwr 70s se.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
High pressure builds over the ERN great lakes and NE CONUS early
next week as the remnant low (jose) slowly circulates ese of
new england. Other than periods of sc off the ocean (by the late
in the weekend-early next week) ESP at the coast... Expect dry wx
with above normal temps.

Highs sat-sun in the mid-upr 80s except lwr 80s at the coast. Highs
mon and Tue in the upr 70s-mid 80s. Lows in the low-mid 60s inland,
upr 60s to around 70f at the coast.

Extended models continue to struggle with the tropical systems into
early next week. It may depend on where jose's low tracks which may
eventually help to steer maria. The latest GFS and to a certain point
the ECMWF has maria on a similiar track to what jose did (i.E. Moving
north along the eastern seaboard my mid week, but how close to the
coast???). To early for anything specific, but we may be doing this
all over again for maria next week. Stay tuned.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
Tropical storm jose will continue to lift northward through the
night allowing for improving aviation conditions. MVFR ceilings
across the northeast (including sby) will lift over the next
couple of hours, improving toVFR after 08z. Mainly dryVFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast
period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may be possible over
far western portions of the region late Wednesday afternoon.

Winds will be out of the N NW around 5 to 10 knots for much of
the forecast period.

Outlook: generallyVFR dry conditions are anticipated through the
extended period as high pressure builds into the region.

Marine
All tropical storm warnings have been allowed to expire and
replaced with small craft advisories as TS jose continues to
lift north of the waters. Seas currently avg to 6-8 ft nearshore
and 9-12 ft out 20 nm. Waves over the bay avg 2-4 ft except up
to 4-5 ft at the mouth of the bay. Marine conditions then
improve later tonight into Wed as jose pushes well off to the ne
and weak high pressure builds in from the nw. Sub- sca
conditions prevail Wed into Thu (except for lingering 5 ft+ seas
on the coastal waters wed). Seas are expected to start to once
again ramp up Fri into the weekend as swells from distant
hurricane maria begin to affect the region so additional SCA or
small craft advisory for hazardous seas will likely be needed
for the coastal waters.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures avg +1.75 to +2.25 ft over the lower bay,
tapered to only about +0.5 to +1.0 feet in the upper bay. Will
continue coastal flood advisories for all bay river zones
through the upcoming high tide cycle this evening early Wed am.

Have coastal flood warnings in effect for the zones adjacent to
the atlantic ocean as water has piled up into some of the inlets
and additional moderate flooding is expected through this
evening's high tide, though some areas may fall a little shy of
moderate criteria as the departures are starting to fall over
the past 2 hrs. Also, added a coastal flood advisory for the bay
side of the md eastern shore from midnight through 6 am with
the expectation that tidal departures will slowly creep up with
as the strong northerly winds subside later tonight and water
remains piled up to some extent in the bay as waves outside of
the mouth of the bay remain elevated on wed. Additional minor
flooding will be possible later Wed wed night, but given the
uncertainty did not extend the headlines out through this period
yet.

High surf advisory also remains for all coastal areas into this
evening due to nearshore waves of 8-11 ft. High risk for rip
currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters now extended
through Wed as swell nearshore waves will be slow to subside.

Climate
Record highs for 9 20:
ric... 95 in 2005
orf... 97 in 1895
sby... 90 in 1983
ecg... 93 in 1942

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood warning until 1 pm edt this afternoon for mdz024-
025.

Coastal flood advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
mdz021>023.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for ncz102.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz089-090-093.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz095>097-523>525.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for vaz098.

Coastal flood warning until 1 pm edt this afternoon for vaz099-
100.

Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz075-077-078-084>086.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz650-
652-654-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt this morning for anz634.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt early this morning for
anz630>632.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Alb mpr
aviation... Ajb
marine... Ajb mas
tides coastal flooding... Mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 5 mi50 min WNW 15 G 16 1011.6 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 13 mi50 min WNW 2.9 G 12 73°F1010.4 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 18 mi38 min NNW 14 G 16 74°F 75°F1 ft1011.7 hPa (-0.4)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi50 min NW 15 G 18 74°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 30 mi50 min NW 12 G 14 1012.1 hPa
44072 30 mi38 min NW 14 G 16 74°F 75°F2 ft
44089 34 mi68 min 73°F7 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 37 mi50 min WNW 9.9 G 12 76°F1011.6 hPa
44064 39 mi38 min 73°F 74°F3 ft1011.3 hPa (+0.0)
44042 - Potomac, MD 40 mi38 min NNW 12 G 14 74°F 75°F1 ft1010.7 hPa (+0.0)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 42 mi50 min N 8.9 G 12 75°F1011.7 hPa
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 42 mi50 min WNW 14 G 16 74°F1011.3 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 43 mi50 min W 11 G 15
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 43 mi68 min W 2.9 72°F 1013 hPa66°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 45 mi68 min 74°F6 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 45 mi56 min WNW 11 G 13 1011.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 47 mi50 min 75°F1011.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi50 min NNW 8.9 G 13 74°F1011.3 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 49 mi50 min WNW 11 G 14 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA11 mi63 minNNW 8 G 1710.00 miOvercast73°F67°F82%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN4N4N6N6N6N6NE8
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4N3NE4N4E8E8E8E6E12
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G14
E11NE8NE7NE4E5N4NE4E5NE3N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Gaskins Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:34 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:19 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:53 PM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.81.40.90.40.1-00.20.71.31.82.22.221.61.10.60.200.10.511.62

Tide / Current Tables for Nassawadox Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Nassawadox Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 04:40 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:58 AM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:04 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:17 PM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.510.40.100.20.71.31.82.22.32.21.81.20.60.200.20.51.11.622.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.