Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deltaville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:15PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 4:44 AM EDT (08:44 UTC) Moonrise 3:30AMMoonset 4:46PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 339 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Through 7 am..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain early in the morning...then rain in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. Rain early in the evening... Then showers likely late in the evening. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 339 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A warm front lifts north into the region today and tonight with low pressure tracking northeast along the boundary. Unsettled conditions continue Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level trough approaches from the west.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deltaville CDP, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230800
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
400 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary draped across northeast north carolina early
this morning will lift back north into southeast virginia this
afternoon, as a potent low pressure system tracks along the
boundary through this evening. Unsettled conditions continue
Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level trough approaches from
the west.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
As of 4 am, a frontal boundary was just south and east of the
local area with high pressure situated over the oh valley.

While clouds are plentiful this morning, pcpn has been slow to
advance northward given the wedge setup over the local area.

Just now starting to see some steadier rain moving into
mecklenburg/lunenburg county. The frontal boundary to our south
will gradually creep back northward into SE va this afternoon
and will be the focusing mechanism for our well-advertised rain
event through tonight. A series of low pressure systems will
ride NE along this boundary today allowing for multiple bouts of
rain, some of which may be heavy at times. The most potent of
these sfc lows is expected to move across SE portions of the fa
late this aftn and evening, and should provide our best chance
of locally heavy rain. With deep layer moisture returning,
categorical pops quickly ramp up from SW to NE and overspread
the entire area by mid to late morning into the afternoon.

23/00z suite of models (nam/gfs/gefs/ecmwf) still all over the
place with timing and placement of heaviest QPF today and exact
track of the strongest low late today into tonight. As mentioned
above, the general consensus is for this low to track across
southeast portions of the va late today into tonight and so that
is when/where we'll show our highest QPF amounts. The threat
for heavy rain and possible minor flooding will continue to be
mentioned in the hwo, but have opted against a flood watch at
this time as 6hr FFG is generally 4-6" across much of the area,
with some values of 3-4" across the piedmont and md ERN shore.

Qpf through 06z Wednesday averages 0.5-1" north to 1-3" south,
and higher amounts are possible. Highs today will range from
65-70 piedmont to the low/mid 70s along the albemarle sound.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Thursday/
The potent shortwave/surface low pushes offshore Tuesday
evening with a secondary wave moving offshore around/after 06z.

Will carry likely/categorical pops (55-85%) in the evening, then
tapering off overnight into Wed morning. Lows tues night in the
mid 50s west to mid 60s SE coast.

Yet another wave approaches from the SW Wednesday aftn as an
upper low approaches from the w. This wave tracks across the
region Wednesday evening through the early overnight hours
bringing another round of likely pops along with a chc of
embedded thunderstorms. Current 00z guidance suggests the best
instability remains southeast. However, the potential for some
strong to severe storms will need to be monitored with 500mb
height falls and strengthening/veering flow at the 500mb level.

Spc currently has our SE counties in a marginal risk. Unsettled
conditions continue into Thursday with chc to likely pops
continuing along with a chc of thunder. Mostly cloudy to
overcast Tuesday night through Thursday. Highs Wednesday/Thursday
ranging through the 70s most places. Lows Wed night in the 60s.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/
Trough axis tracks across the region Thursday night as the
surface low tracks just north of the region. Will keep mention
of chance pops across the northeast portion of the local area
Thursday night. Dry conditions and a clearing sky is forecast
Friday as the trough axis and deepest moisture push offshore and
westerly flow aloft commences. Temperatures Friday generally
around average in the mid to upper 70's. Upper level flow
becomes northwest Friday night and Saturday ahead of an upper
level ridge building over the ohio valley. A warm front lifts
into the region Saturday, providing a focus for showers and
thunderstorms, but overall moisture is expected to be limited.

Will keep only slight chance pops for the piedmont Saturday at
this time. Warmer, with highs in the upper 70's to low 80's.

Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
Saturday night as upstream convection develops and tracks along
the frontal boundary and into the region. However, spatial and
timing differences exist so have capped pops in the low end
chance range. Thereafter, unsettled conditions persist Sunday
through Monday as an upper level trough tracks across the
midwest into the eastern conus. A great deal of uncertainty
exists in the medium range guidance, but it appears moisture
return will be limited. Will keep mention of low end chance pops
in the forecast. Highs both days generally in the low to mid
80's.

Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/
MVFR to ifr CIGS are prevalent early this morning with lifr cigs
at kphf. Widespread precipitation develops later this morning
and continues most of the day. The rain may be heavy at times,
especially this aftn/eve, reducing visibility. Ifr ceilings will
be widespread into tonight.

Outlook... Other low pressure systems will impact the area but not to
the extent as the one today. Nevertheless... Aviation conditions
will be reduced at times through Thursday. High pressure builds
over the area Thursday night and Friday with drying. Moisture
returns with a chance for precipitation developing during the
weekend.

Marine
Rather challenging forecast with respect to confidence and timing of
any SCA level winds due to a wide range of model solutions even in
the short term. Low pressure progged to lift NE along a frontal
boundary late today / tonight. The actual strength of the low as it
tracks across the lwr ches bay and off the DELMARVA will determine
just how strong the nne winds will be. Believe there is just enough
agreement for a 6-10 hour period of SCA winds across the ches bay
from 22z through 08z tonite to post marginal SCA headlines. Not
enough confidence hoist any headlines along the coastal waters so
held off there. This includes seas as they are running about a foot
below current forecast. Seas may eventually reach 5 feet out near 20
nm, but expect this would be more swell driven from the low moving
offshore rather than wind driven.

The next front pushes offshore Thursday night, with increasing
southwest winds Thursday ahead of the front. Minimal SCA conditions
are possible.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Wednesday for anz632-634.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 am edt
Wednesday for anz630-631.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm
short term... Ajz/jdm
long term... Sam
aviation... Jdm
marine... Mpr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 1 mi35 min NNE 9.7 G 12 65°F 1013 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 14 mi45 min N 12 G 13 1013.6 hPa (-0.8)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi45 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 67°F 1012.6 hPa (-0.8)
44072 25 mi35 min ENE 5.8 G 5.8 66°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 26 mi75 min W 1 62°F 1014 hPa61°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 26 mi45 min NE 1 G 1.9 66°F 69°F1012.9 hPa (-0.7)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi45 min N 5.1 G 7 66°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 31 mi45 min N 6 G 8.9 65°F 67°F1012.8 hPa (-0.4)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi45 min N 4.1 G 8 64°F 69°F1013.6 hPa (-0.3)
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi35 min N 7.8 G 12 65°F 1012.6 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 36 mi35 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 66°F
44064 40 mi35 min 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 1013.1 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 40 mi45 min NNE 4.1 G 4.1 67°F 1012.8 hPa (-1.0)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 42 mi45 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 67°F 1013.1 hPa (-0.9)
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 42 mi45 min NNE 6 G 6 67°F 68°F1012.8 hPa (-0.9)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi45 min N 4.1 G 5.1
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 43 mi45 min 69°F1012.9 hPa (-1.0)
44096 44 mi54 min 62°F2 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 46 mi45 min N 7 G 8 66°F
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 47 mi45 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 1012.7 hPa (-1.1)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi45 min NNE 4.1 G 8 64°F 68°F1013.7 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA26 mi50 minN 00.75 miOvercast63°F62°F99%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE5N3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE3CalmCalmCalmNE5E7NE5E4E3NE7E7E8E8E7E7E6E3E3CalmCalmE4E3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW3CalmCalmNE7NE7E11
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E10E8E5E7CalmE4NE3NW3N3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Stingray Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Stingray Point
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Tue -- 03:02 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:40 AM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:08 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:07 PM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.30.1-00.10.30.71.11.31.31.20.90.60.30-0.100.30.71.11.51.61.51.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:09 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:58 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:16 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:22 PM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.70.40.1-000.30.711.31.41.31.10.70.40.1-0.1-00.20.71.11.51.71.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.