Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wachapreague, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:54PM Thursday February 22, 2018 6:00 AM EST (11:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:45AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 335 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Through 7 am..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. A chance of rain with patchy drizzle.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain with patchy drizzle in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds around 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 335 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains anchored off the southeast coast today, as a backdoor cold front drops south into the region this afternoon. The front slowly lifts back north as a warm front on Friday and stalls just north of the area Friday night into Saturday. Another cold front moves through the area Sunday into Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wachapreague, VA
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location: 37.58, -75.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 220914
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
414 am est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast today as
a backdoor cold front drops south into the area. The front
lifts back north as a warm front Friday. Another cold front
will move through the area Sunday into Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Latest sfc analysis shows broad bermuda high pressure offshore
with a cold front just north of the fa. Aloft, a highly
anomalous upper-level ridge is positioned off the eastern
seaboard. Tricky forecast for today as a lot depends on how far
south the front slides. In general, based off the strength of
the ridge aloft and how most 00z guidance initialized, favored
to warmer solutions for today (slower movement of the front).

There will be a wide range of high temps from north to
south... Current forecast calls for highs ranging from 55-60 lwr
md eastern shore to mid-upr 70s far southern areas. After some
patchy morning fog, there will be a chance for -ra over the
northern half of the fa, closer to the front. Any rain amounts
will be light, with the pcpn eventually transitioning to more of
a -ra -dz combo this evening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
Cooler tonight with continued light rain drizzle fog across the
north due to a moist onshore flow. Lows low-mid 40s north, upr
40s- lwr 50s south. Kept chc showers over northern areas Fri as
the front slips back north as a warm front. Highs in the lwr 50s
north to upr 60s-lwr 70s far south.

Boundary lifts north leaving the local area in the warm sector fri
night along with chcs for more fog. Lows mid-upr 40s ERN shore
to mid-upr 50s south. Warm again Sat with chc for shwrs
especially over NW areas. Highs mid 60s ERN shore to the mid-
upr 70s south.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday continues to look like a mild yet wet day with the surface
cyclone staying over the great lakes with the surface cold front
moving into the area Sunday afternoon. Best chances for rain will be
north of i-64 where the better forcing and moisture will be located.

However, the front will be slow to move through the area given that
it will become nearly parallel to the upper flow aloft. Canadian
high pressure builds in for early next week so it is possible that a
lingering shower may persist across nc on Monday, it will most
likely be dry Monday-Tuesday. The high shifts offshore by Wednesday,
allowing return s-sw flow to develop. An approaching front wed
afternoon may allow for showers later in the afternoon into wed
night, but timing is still uncertain and have opted to keep out of
the forecast.

Sunday will be another warm day with s-sw flow ahead of the strong
warm front. However, clouds and showers will likely keep temps in
the upper 60s lower 70s despite the +12c 850mb temps. Temps closer
to normal Monday-Wednesday, but mostly sunny skies expected as the
high pressure builds overhead.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions to start the forecast period at all sites. A
backdoor cold front begins to approach the region from the north
early this morning. This will allow for stratus to first
develop across the north and then spread south as the front sags
into the region. Am expecting MVFR ifr CIGS to develop at
phf ric sby by 12z. Scattered rain showers, drizzle, and patchy
fog will also be possible with the backdoor cold front through
much of the day. The front will continue to sag south through
the day with deteriorating aviation conditions expected behind
the front. Locations further south, including ecg, may not see
deteriorating conditions until after this forecast period, aside
for some brief fog psbl this morning. Winds ahead of the front
are expected to remain s-sw 5-10 kt becoming variable or light
northeast behind the front.

Outlook: expecting a return to ifr MVFR conditions in rain fog
in moist onshore flow tonight Fri behind this feature. Front
slips back north of the area later Friday into Saturday. A
second, stronger cold front will drop across the area Sunday
night, with another period of cig vsby restrictions possible
during this period.

Marine
Backdoor cold front to slowly push south through the waters later
today into tonight. SW winds averaging 10 kt will shift to the E and
then nne behind the front. Sub-sca conditions to prevail for the
most part but does appear to be enough of a cold air push over the
coastal waters N of parramore island tonight Fri morning to raise
sca headlines there for NE winds of 15-25 kt and seas building to 4-
6 ft. Elsewhere, winds will genly be 10-15 kt with 3-4 ft seas and
waves in the bay tonight to 2-3 ft. A brief period of gusts to 20-25
kt possible in the bay but looks to be too short of a duration to
raise any headlines. For Fri fri night, the front slowly lifts back
n, gradually shifting winds back to the SE and then the sw. Front
then mainly N of the region Sat into sun, although it may stall in
the vicinity of the northern coastal waters. SW winds to avg 10-15
kt with a few gusts to 20 kt, especially on Sunday. Cold front to
cross the area Sun night Mon with little cold air push so headlines
do not appear likely at this time unless a significant wave of low
pressure develops along the front mon.

Climate
Record highs and record high mins were set at richmond,
salisbury, and elizabeth city Wed 2 21. At norfolk, the record
high was tied and the record high min was set. See rer products
for details. For today 2 22, record highs and record high mins
will be possible and these values are listed below.

**please note, record high mins like record highs are calendar
date values so the the records are not complete this morning
(temperature needs to stay up through midnight tonight).

* date: today Thu 2 22
* site: record high... Record high min
* ric: 73 (1985) 52 (1913)
* orf: 77 (1937) 55 (1878)
* sby: 70 (1997) 50 (1996)
* ecg: 77 (2003) 56 (1997)
very warm temperatures will continue through the weekend, record
highs are listed for Sat 2 24 and Sun 2 25.

* record highs
* site: Sat 2 24... ... Sun 2 25
* ric: 82 (1985) 83 (1930)
* orf: 82 (2012) 81 (2017)
* sby: 77 (2012) 80 (1930)
* ecg: 79 (1985) 78 (2017)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
Friday for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Mas
near term... Mas
short term... Mas mpr
long term... Ajb mrd
aviation... Ajb mas
marine... Lkb
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 4 mi42 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 56°F 59°F1029.8 hPa
44089 19 mi30 min 43°F3 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 21 mi42 min S 13 G 13 1030.1 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 35 mi42 min SSE 6 G 6 45°F
44096 40 mi69 min 46°F2 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 45 mi42 min SW 8.9 G 11 63°F 1030.2 hPa
CHBV2 45 mi48 min SW 8.9 G 11 61°F 1029.1 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 46 mi30 min 45°F2 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi42 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 54°F 53°F1030.1 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA9 mi65 minSSW 610.00 miFair65°F62°F92%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSE6SE6SE7SE7S6S7SE8S7S8S7S8S7S6S3S3CalmCalmCalmS4S3SW5SW9SW5SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Wachapreague Inlet (inside)
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Thu -- 12:13 AM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:34 PM EST     3.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:53 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
43.83.22.41.60.80.30.20.71.42.22.93.43.42.92.21.50.80.2-00.31.12.13

Tide / Current Tables for Metompkin Inlet, Virginia
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Metompkin Inlet
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Thu -- 12:27 AM EST     3.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:00 PM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:43 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.73.63.22.31.30.70.30.30.61.222.73.23.33.12.41.40.60.20.10.411.92.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.