Thursday, April19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wachapreague, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:45PM Thursday April 19, 2018 5:31 AM EDT (09:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:10AMMoonset 10:45PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 343 Am Edt Thu Apr 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am edt this morning through Friday morning...
Through 7 am..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt, becoming W late. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ600 343 Am Edt Thu Apr 19 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure and associated warm front tracks north of the area early this morning. A gusty west wind will accompany a cold front that will move across the region later this morning. High pressure builds down into and over the area tonight through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wachapreague, VA
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location: 37.58, -75.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 190807
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
407 am edt Thu apr 19 2018

Synopsis
A cold front crosses the area today. Dry weather with below
normal temperatures will prevail Friday through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

latest sfc analysis shows ~1002 mb low pressure over NRN va.

This low will track east today and drag a cold front through the
local area. Despite meager moisture fields there is sufficient
forcing associated with a potent mid-level shortwave trough for
iso-sct shras over NE areas later this morning midday. Otws,
decreasing clouds this aftn with dewpoints dropping quickly
behind the front. The low rh and winds gusting up to 25-35 mph
will lead to increased fire danger this aftn (see fire wx
section below for more info). High temps today mainly in the
60s.

Winds slowly decrease tonight under a mostly clear sky. Should
be too dry for frost, but temps are expected to bottom out
around 32f over portions of the piedmont where a freeze watch
has been issued. Low temps in the mid upr 30s elsewhere.

Short term Friday through Saturday
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

dry cool wx Fri as lo pres is slow to exit new england and hi
pres only gradually builds into the local area from the nw.

Still hanging on to a gusty NW wind near the coast. Mostly
sunny W highs mainly 55-60f.

Dry cool wx continues Fri night-sat as sfc hi pres arrives from
the nw. Winds to decouple become light most places Thu night
resulting in another night W lows in the mid 30s inland
to around 40f near coast in ERN SE va-ne nc. Mostly sunny sat
w N winds AOB 10 mph and highs from the u50s E to the l-m60s
along-w of I 95.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 420 pm edt Wednesday...

below average temperatures expected through the bulk of the extended
period as surface high pressure slowly moves from the WRN great
lakes to new england from Sunday through Tuesday. At the same time,
a low pressure system slowly tracks from the SRN plains to the
southeastern us. Rain chances return early next week as that same
area of low pressure tracks northeastward up the atlantic coast.

Some track timing differences exist between the 18 12z suite of
guidance. GFS brings in the rain late in the day on Monday while the
ecmwf holds it off until Tuesday pm and has much less QPF than the
gfs. Cmc keeps all of the precipitation south of the cwa. Given the
uncertainty, kept pops around 40% for the bulk of the CWA from tue-
wed.

Highs in the mid-upper 60s sun-wed from central va to NE nc.

Slightly cooler on the ERN shore with low 60s sun-tue warming to mid
60s by Wednesday. Lows mainly in the 40s throughout the CWA on
mon Tue rising to around 50 Wed am with the clouds possible
rain.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
As of 150 am edt Thursday...

mainlyVFR through the 06z TAF period. Included some MVFR cigs
solely at ksby where an increase in low-level moisture is
expected over the next couple hours. Guidance continues to show
llws for all TAF sites this morning as a warm front passes
through the region. A cold front will then move through the
area during the day and bring mid level clouds and gusty w-nw
winds. Expect sustained winds of ~20 kt with gusts up to 30-35
kt from late morning through the afternoon. Kept all tafs dry
for now, but the best chance for any pcpn is at ksby.

Outlook:VFR conditions continue through sat. Winds will
diminish and shift to the NW tonight.VFR dry with ~10 kt winds
from the NW on fri, shifting to the N to NE on sat.

Marine
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

low pressure is pushing across the coast early this morning
with a cold front trailing back to the SW of the low. Low pressure
will push off the DELMARVA coast by 12z, with the cold front pushing
across the coast later this morning. A SW wind is generally 10-15kt
ahead of the low. The wind will become NW AOB 15kt as the low pushes
offshore, and then become wnw 15-25kt later this morning into the
aftn as CAA develops in the wake of the cold front. The wind will
become NW 15-25kt tonight, with gusts up to 30kt for the bay ocean.

Seas will initially be ~3ft early this morning, then build to 4-6ft
later this aftn into tonight. Waves in the bay will be ~2ft, the
increase to 3-4ft later this aftn into tonight. Current SCA flags
will remain as is, but there will be a few hours of sub-sca
conditions early today before CAA develops. High pressure builds in
from the NW Friday into Friday night. A secondary surge is expected
Friday night, but this surge should generally be sub-sca. High
pressure will build over the region Saturday and Sunday resulting in
benign marine conditions. High pressure pushes off the SRN new
england coast early next week as low pressure pushes off the
southeast coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow.

Fire weather
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

with little to no rain in the forecast today and with a frontal
passage, pattern looks favorable given the time of year, and
the typical lag in the arrival of cold air to the sfc as the
downslope offsets the drop in 850 mb temperatures for increased
fire concerns (this afternoon early eve). After coordination w
the va fire service have issued an increased fire danger
statement (sps) for today over central and eastern va as w
winds become gusty to 25-35 mph and most rh values fall to
25-30% (in the afternoon early eve). Also have a sps for
increased fire danger for all of NE nc except the nc outer
banks... And for the va ERN shore and va beach.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... Freeze watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
vaz048-060>062-064-067>069-509>511.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Friday for anz633-650-652-
654.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 am edt
Friday for anz656-658.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Friday for anz635>638.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Friday for anz630>632-634.

Synopsis... Mas
near term... Mas
short term... Alb mas
long term... Eri
aviation... Mas jef
marine... Ajz
fire weather...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 4 mi44 min SW 7 G 9.9 59°F 56°F1001.3 hPa
44089 19 mi32 min 49°F3 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 21 mi44 min SSW 14 G 15 1001.9 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 35 mi50 min SW 14 G 17 53°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 45 mi44 min WSW 15 G 16 64°F 1002.2 hPa
CHBV2 45 mi50 min SW 12 G 15 61°F 1001.1 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 46 mi32 min 51°F3 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi44 min NNW 6 G 7 49°F 54°F1001.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 49 mi32 min NW 7.8 G 14 51°F 52°F1 ft1003 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA9 mi57 minWSW 13 G 1910.00 miFair66°F47°F51%1001.4 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW7W7W6NW5NW6CalmS7S9SE9SE8SE8SE6SE8E7SE9
G14
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1 day agoNW14
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2 days agoSE12
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W9W4CalmNW4NW6NW3N6N3CalmNW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Wachapreague Inlet (inside)
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Thu -- 05:19 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:18 AM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:22 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.63.72.51.30.3-0.3-0.20.51.52.53.43.93.83.12.21.30.4-0.1-0.10.71.82.944.8

Tide / Current Tables for Metompkin Inlet, Virginia
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Metompkin Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:29 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:47 AM EDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:30 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:58 PM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.33.52.41.30.4-0.2-0.20.41.42.43.23.73.83.42.51.40.5000.61.62.73.74.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.