Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wachapreague, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:29PM Monday June 18, 2018 3:12 AM EDT (07:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 11:41PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 107 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly S swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 5 kt, becoming N late. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..N winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 107 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will linger offshore through midweek. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest by later Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wachapreague, VA
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location: 37.58, -75.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180531
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
131 am edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered off the coast through Tuesday.

A frontal boundary moves into the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday,
then stalls across the region through the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 800 pm edt Sunday...

latest analysis indicating a broad upper level ridge centered
over the oh mid-ms valley, with the local area in nnw flow aloft
on the periphery of this ridge. Weak sfc trough noted at the
sfc and instability has been highest across interior sections of
the fa E of i-95 this evening, particularly across far SE va and
ne nc. Impressive cluster of tstms ongoing in NE nc so have
likely pops there for a few hrs, with mainly 20-40% just W of
ches bay and over south central va (and 20% or less elsewhere).

Scattered showers over the southern zones eventually wane
overnight, with variably cloudy skies and warm humid
conditions. Lows in the upper 60s eastern shore and mainly from
70-75 f elsewhere.

Short term 6 am this morning through Wednesday
As of 330 pm edt Sunday...

models show a persistent lee trof through tues ahead of the
approaching frontal boundary tues night wed. Data also shows a
weaker trof pushing SE into sern va and the ERN carolinas mon
before washing out by tues. Meanwhile, the ssw flow arnd the
bermuda high results in a hot humid airmass mon, peaking tues.

Upshot will be the first real heat of the summer under pt to
mstly sunny skies. Diurnal pops confined to the sern zones Mon with
afternoon pops across the north tue. Combo of highs in the low-mid
90s and dp's in the upr 60s-mid 70s yields heat index vales btwn 100-
104 Mon (under advsry levels). Lows Mon night in the low-mid 70s.

Tues forecast on whether any heat advisories will be needed
remains a challenge due to temps cloud coverage and eventual
convection. For now, think temps dp temps will combine for a few
hrs of heat index values arnd 105 across the sern zones (mainly
south of i64 and east of i95 on east to the ches bay). Highs in
the low-mid 90s.

The frontal boundary progged to enter the local area tues night then
stall wed. This leads to more clouds with periodic convection. Lows
upr 60s-mid 70s. Highs Wed mid 80s-lwr 90s, cooler at the beaches.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Long term:
as of 400 pm edt Sunday...

the upper level ridge is forecast to shift southward and break
down late Wednesday through the end of the work week with a
weak cold front potentially sliding through the region late
Thursday into Friday. Model guidance also continues to show
abundant moisture will be in place throughout the region with
gfs pw values around 2.0" late Wednesday into the Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible into at least
Thursday in this setup. It is still too early to pin down the
exact timing rain amounts, so maintained high end chance pops
Wednesday night and Thursday.

The frontal boundary moves just to the south of the region by
Friday leading to drier and slightly cooler conditions. An upper
level low tracks across the central us to the great lakes by
next weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible as this
system tracks to the north.

Above average temperatures will continue throughout the extended
period. Highs are expected to top out in the middle to upper 80s
on Thursday Friday and will be dependent on any rain chances.

Slightly warmer for the second half of the extended period with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 for Saturday and Sunday.

Overnight lows will also remain mild through the period with
temperatures generally ranging from near 70 to the mid 70s.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
As of 115 am edt Monday...

guidance is still hinting at some patchy fog and low cigs
throughout the CWA early this morning. Opted to maintain
3-5sm MVFR vsbys at ksby and added a few hours worth of lifr
cigs there as well. Elsewhere, think the guidance is overdone
and will have mainlyVFR or high-end MVFR conditions (though did
keep a period low CIGS vsbys at kphf). Winds turn to the S sw
but remain below 10 kt today and Tuesday. Isolated afternoon
showers tstms are possible over mainly SE va NE nc today with a
better chance of tstms late Tuesday through Wednesday as a cold
front approaches the region.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Sunday...

sub-sca criteria conditions expected to continue through the middle
of the coming week. Onshore winds of 5-15 kt this afternoon evening
will become ssw tonight into Monday morning. Waves seas no worse
than 1-2 ft. S-se winds 5-10 kt expected Monday with winds
increasing to 10-15 kt from the SW Monday evening in early tues
morning. No SCA conditions expected at this time. Waves 1-2 ft; seas
averaging 2-3 ft. A weak boundary sagging south over the waters
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will briefly turn winds to the
nne from about the mouth of the bay on north. A longer duration of
ne-e winds should occur Thursday but with winds no higher than
10 kt.

Climate
As of 300 pm edt Sunday...

hottest airmass of the season so far is expected Mon tue, record
highs are listed below for reference:
* site Mon 6 18 Tue 6 19
* ric: 100 (1970) 103 (1944)
* orf: 99 (1944) 101 (1944)
* sby: 98 (2014) 96 (1993)
* ecg: 100 (2011) 100 (1944)

Equipment
As of 800 pm edt Sunday...

kakq radar has returned to service and is now fully operational.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Ajb
aviation... Lkb mas
marine... Jdm
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 4 mi43 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 80°F1017.9 hPa
44089 19 mi43 min 71°F2 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 21 mi43 min E 8 G 8 1018.1 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 34 mi33 min S 5.8 G 5.8 77°F 1017.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 35 mi43 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 77°F
44072 43 mi33 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 77°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 45 mi43 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 77°F 1017.8 hPa
CHBV2 45 mi43 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 76°F 1016.5 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 46 mi43 min 76°F1 ft
44064 47 mi33 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 76°F 1017.1 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi43 min ESE 5.1 G 6 75°F 81°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA9 mi78 minE 32.50 miFog/Mist73°F72°F99%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S5CalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3E3SE3E4E4SE7SE6SE6SE7E6SE5E3SE5SE4CalmSE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW3SW6SW9
G15
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2 days agoW3N4CalmCalmCalmNW4N10N5N5NW9
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NW10NW6N6N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Wachapreague Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:09 AM EDT     5.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:39 PM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
54.8431.80.6-0.2-0.30.10.9233.73.83.42.71.80.80-0.20.31.12.23.3

Tide / Current Tables for Metompkin Inlet, Virginia
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Metompkin Inlet
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Mon -- 12:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:34 AM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:22 PM EDT     4.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:59 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.54.53.92.81.70.6-0.1-0.30.10.91.92.83.643.93.22.21.20.50.20.51.22.23.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.