Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Painter, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:23PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 6:43 AM EST (11:43 UTC) Moonrise 11:31AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 602 Am Est Wed Jan 24 2018
Today..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 kt...becoming E late in the evening, then becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
ANZ600 602 Am Est Wed Jan 24 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds in from the west through Thursday, then slides out to sea Friday afternoon through Saturday. A cold front will approach the waters Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painter, VA
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location: 37.58, -75.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240850
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
350 am est Wed jan 24 2018

Synopsis
High pressure becomes centered over the south central states
today and builds east into the local area for Thursday and
Friday. The highs slides off the coast for the weekend. The next
cold front arrives Sunday accompanied by showers.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Dry cooler (though near seasonable) today W sfc hi pres centered
over the south central conus... Building E to the gulf coast region
by aftn. Sunny to start this morning... Then some increase in clouds
by midday afternoon (though still averaging at worst partly sunny).

Low level thicknesses and 850mb temps support highs from the
u40s-around 50f on the ERN shore and mainly l-m50s elsewhere.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday
Models depict a fast moving trough aloft swinging through the
region tonight... Accompanied by bkn-ovc CIGS (clearing out
late). Lows in the u20s-l30s. Quick shot of low level CAA thu.

Mainly sunny and a few degrees cooler Thu W highs from the
l-m40s NE to around 50f south central va interior NE nc.

Lighter winds clear Thu night as the sfc hi pres becomes
centered INVOF the local area. Lows mainly in the 20s.

Sunny... Turning turning milder Fri with highs u40s-around 50f
ne to the m-u50s W of ches bay inland.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Overall the models continue to advertise a decent chance for more
significant rain on the coming weekend, but there are still some
pretty decent differences on timing and storm development that the
confidence on the amount of rain and the timing is still not
extremely high.

The extended period begins with high pressure in place across
the region, but the high has moved off the coast with the flow
turning more southerly to southwesterly. This should allow for
modification of temperatures Friday night with most locations
staying above freezing with readings in the mid to high 30s. The
12z GFS has slowed compared to yesterdays forecast so it
appears that dry weather will persist with a good warm up in
place. Have trended the forecast a little warmer than much of
the guidance toward the mex values which are mainly in the upper
50s to the lower 60s.

From Saturday night into Monday time frame, the models vary greatly
as far as timing and how much moisture is available based upon
whether the system phases or not. The GFS has kept the two stream
separate until the low is well out to sea, but the trend with it has
been to slowing. On the other hand the 00z ECMWF has been strong
and phased the low with the upper trough actually briefly getting a
negative tilt over the mid-atlantic states late on Sunday. Now the
12z ECMWF is not as strong and the phasing is weaker with the trough
remaining positively tilted. So this makes for quite a bit of
uncertainty with how much moisture and rain is possible. Right now
have the highest pops on Sunday into Sunday night as this is the
time period where the models do agree it will rain. The question
would be does it start earlier on Sat night or how long does it
linger into Monday. So have tried to hold on some lower pops on
both ends as the timing is uncertain. Have kept the mild
temperatures for the period however with the SW flow with lows in the
u40s - l50s and highs in the u50s - l60s.

By Monday night, cooler and drier weather is expected to return as
high pressure builds eastward into the region and this should
persist through mid week. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday
with highs in the mid - upper 40s and lows getting toward freezing
in the u20s- l30s.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions expected through the 06z TAF forecast period. A
weak trough aloft crosses the region tonight W bkn CIGS 8-12
kft... Otherwise sfc hi pres builds into the region through fri.

The next cold front approaches fromt the W sat... And potentially
brings flight restrictions as it crosses the local area sun.

Marine
Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front pushing farther offshore
with strong high pressure building over the south-central conus.

This high will build east into the SE states through thu, then
become centered over the mid atlc by Thu night fri. Sub-sca
conditions for today with 10-15 kt W NW winds and 1-2 ft waves
over the bay, 2-4 ft seas over coastal wtrs. A weak CAA surge
expect late tonight into Thu morning as a frontal bndry drops
into the area and weakens. Marginal SCA conditions for winds are
psbl but for now capped winds at ~15 kt over the bay with
confidence not high enough to issue a mainly early third period
headline. Seas expected to stay below 5 ft. Conditions improve
fri as high pressure builds into and over the area.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz alb lkb
near term... Alb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Ess
aviation... Alb
marine... Mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 5 mi44 min Calm G 1.9 37°F 45°F1016 hPa (+1.7)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 13 mi44 min W 8.9 G 9.9 1016.7 hPa (+1.9)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 25 mi34 min W 3.9 G 3.9 37°F 1017.4 hPa
44089 27 mi44 min 38°F4 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi44 min WNW 8.9 G 11 38°F
44072 37 mi34 min W 5.8 G 7.8 39°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 37 mi44 min W 9.9 G 9.9 42°F 1017 hPa (+1.9)
44096 39 mi23 min 39°F2 ft
CHBV2 41 mi44 min W 8.9 G 8.9 40°F 1015.5 hPa (+2.0)
44064 43 mi34 min W 7.8 G 9.7 40°F 1016.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi34 min N 3.9 G 3.9 38°F 1015.6 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 44 mi44 min WSW 8 G 9.9 42°F 38°F1016.3 hPa (+1.9)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi44 min WSW 7 G 8 39°F 40°F1016.1 hPa (+1.9)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi44 min W 6 G 7 40°F 37°F1016.2 hPa (+1.9)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 46 mi44 min 40°F3 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 47 mi44 min W 8 G 12 44°F

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair34°F32°F93%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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N6N5N5NW4W3CalmCalmW3W3CalmW3
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6SE5S4E4CalmS8S5S4S7S6SW6S8S10S8S9S8S6S6S7S6

Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague, Wachapreague Channel, Virginia
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Wachapreague
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:06 AM EST     3.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:29 PM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:50 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.73.83.73.12.21.40.80.40.30.91.92.83.33.63.63.12.31.40.70.200.51.52.6

Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:10 AM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:46 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:28 PM EST     1.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:01 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.71.11.41.61.51.310.60.30.10.10.20.50.91.31.51.51.310.60.30-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.