Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Painter, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday June 22, 2017 7:52 PM EDT (23:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:30AMMoonset 5:53PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 647 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through late Friday night...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Isolated showers late.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then scattered showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...building to 3 to 4 ft late. Scattered showers and tstms until early morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms until late afternoon, then a chance of showers and tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms early in the evening.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 647 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Bermuda high pressure will be located over the carolinas through Saturday. The remnants of cindy will pass across the region Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front pushes across the coast Saturday night. Another cold front pushes across the region Monday night with high pressure returning through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painter, VA
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location: 37.58, -75.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 222027
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
427 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
Bermuda high pressure begins to shift back towards the eastern
seaboard through tonight. The high becomes centered off the
southeast coast Friday and Saturday... As a surface cold front
approaches the region from the northwest. Tropical moisture from
the remnants of TD cindy will push across the region ahead of
the front for Friday night through early Saturday... Before the
front shifts offshore late in the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Latest weather analysis features tropical depression cindy
moving n-ne over the ARKLATEX region of the lower mississippi
river valley. Out ahead of the system, a broad plume of mid to
upper level clouds has pushed across the mid-south into the
carolinas. To the north, a quasi-stationary boundary remains in
place along and just north of the mason-dixon line, extending
nw into the western great lakes. Meanwhile, the bermuda high is
settling in off the southeast coast and will remain there
through at least Saturday. 12z soundings indicate ssw flow has
allowed for quick moistening out ahead of the system, with pw
values already ~1.50"... Running just a bit faster than model
timing.

Slight to low end chance (20-30%) pop continues for isolated to
widely sct convection over the southern 1 3 of the area (mainly
us-460 south) this aftn. A couple of lobes of shortwave energy
out ahead of TD cindy lift ene from the tn valley SE states this
afternoon. Given that shear is still on the low side, expect
activity over the local area to drop off quickly with loss of
heating, with most pcpn remaining to our w-sw through midnight.

Overall, increasing clouds, very warm muggy for the balance of
this aftn with highs reaching into the lower 90s most areas and
dewpoints around 70f.

More widespread area of showers pushes in late tonight as
theta-e ridge pushes across the piedmont toward the eastern
shore late tonight into Friday morning. Expect a period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall during this time frame, and
have therefore continued likely pop mainly NW of a fvx-ric-sby
line. Farther south, have gone with a low chance pop for some
isolated showers over south central va and NE nc. Warm and muggy
overnight with lows in the 70s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Saturday night
The core remnants of TD cindy will merge with the approaching
cold front on Friday, and lift NE from the mid-south toward the
central and southern appalachians Friday afternoon and night
before crossing the local area late Friday night through
Saturday morning. Out ahead of the system, rain showers
associated with lead shortwave theta-e ridge will push across
the northern tier of counties Friday morning. Expect a brief
period of partial clearing behind this initial wave, which
should allow for strong surface-based instability. Pw values
will creep to and above 2" by Friday morning. Additionally,
expect 0-6km deep layer shear will be on the order of 35-45 kt,
with hi-res models showing a pronounced low level jet streak of
~50 kt just to the north by mid to late afternoon. The caveat to
all this thunderstorm potential is that regional soundings
continue to indicate a fairly substantial capping inversion that
will need to be overcome to realize the strong convective
threat. Given strong amount of lift to the north, expect that
best chance for t-storms tomorrow afternoon will be across our
northern tier of counties, and have oriented a high end pop for
scattered t-storms Friday afternoon. Farther south, removed from
the better dynamics, have tapered back to a 20-30 pop tomorrow
afternoon. Very warm and humid tomorrow with highs again u80s to
low 90s inland. Warm and muggy Friday night with lows in the
70s.

After another brief lull tomorrow night, the actual remnants of
cindy track across the approaching cold front early Saturday
morning. Given favorable dynamics and pw values AOA 2", expect a
period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall across the northern
half of the region. Despite short-lived heavy rain rates in the
tropical airmass Sat morning, progressive nature of system
should preclude too many flooding issues. However, important to
note that flash flood values are lower than they typically would
be for this time of year, especially along the i-64 corridor.

Therefore, we will have to watch this time frame closely. Front
will push to the coast and then offshore by Saturday evening,
with pops gradually diminishing Saturday afternoon and early
evening. Locally heavy rainfall possible along the coast and
southern zones into the early evening hours on Saturday.

Remaining warm and moderately humid Saturday. Highs mainly in
the mid to upper 80s to around 90 SE zones.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Cold front pushes offshore Saturday night, stalling along the
coast Sunday. Height falls ahead of a deepening upper level
trough over the great lakes ohio valley Sunday and remnant
moisture along the boundary will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across northeast north carolina Sunday
afternoon. Drying inland. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 80's. A
secondary front pushes into the region Sunday night and Monday.

Have only kept slight chance pops inland Monday given limited
moisture. Highs in the low to mid 80's. Potent shortwave digs
into the ohio valley and central appalachians Monday night into
Tuesday with a stronger cold front pushing through the region
Tuesday. Moisture return along the coast will result in isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern virginia.

Cooler Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70's. Dewpoints
mix into the 50's, resulting in pleasant afternoon conditions.

Dry and comfortable conditions forecast again Wednesday as the
trough pushes offshore and heights build over the ohio valley.

Surface high pressure settles over the mid-atlantic. Highs
Wednesday generally in the low 80's. Cool Thursday morning, with
lows in the upper 50's inland to mid 60's near the coast. High
pressure slides offshore Thursday with return flow resulting in
moderating temperatures. Highs in the mid 80's.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr conditions are expected through this afternoon and evening. Mid
and high level clouds will continue to increase this afternoon as
shortwave energy from TD cindy tracks ene from the tn valley se
states. Patchy rain showers will work into primarily western and
northern portions of the region overnight, potentially impacting ric
and sby. There will also be the potential for MVFR stratus,
particularly at ric, tomorrow morning. Winds increase out of the sw
on Friday afternoon, gusts in excess of 20 knots will be possible.

Outlook: additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop on Friday afternoon and again on Saturday as the remnants
of TD cindy arrive just ahead of a cold front. Periods of MVFR will
be possible in heavier showers on Friday and Saturday. The front
exits the NE nc coast by Sunday morning with winds shifting to the
nw and conditions improving toVFR as cooler, drier air arrives in
its wake.

Marine
Latest surface analysis centers high pressure off the southeast
coast with a weak frontal boundary over the northeast. Southwest
wind of 10-15 knots prevails over the waters this afternoon with
waves 1-2 feet and seas 2 feet. High pressure prevails off the
southeast coast through Saturday as the remnant low of cindy
tracks along a cold front through the tennessee valley Friday
and Friday night and into the mid-atlantic Saturday morning.

Southwest winds increase over the waters Friday afternoon, with
speeds increasing to 15-20 knots in the northern waters Friday
afternoon. Have raised SCA headlines for the upper bay Friday
afternoon for gusts of 20-25 knots. Pressure gradient
strengthens Friday night ahead of the remnant low as winds aloft
increase. Southwest winds increase to 15-25 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots in the bay and coastal waters Saturday morning. Seas
increase to 4-6 feet out 20 nm north of parramore island. 3-4
feet elsewhere. Waves increase to 2-4 feet. SCA headlines have
been raised for the bay beginning late Friday evening, but have
held off on additional headlines due to the time frame being
late 4th period. The remnant low lifts north of the region
Saturday afternoon as pressure rises return over the waters mid
to late afternoon. Expect improving conditions late Saturday as
winds become west to southwest at 10-20 knots. Seas subside to
2-4 feet Saturday evening. Winds become northwest Saturday night
as the front pushes across the region, but a lack of cold
advection and weak gradient winds expected to keep conditions
sub-sca. Another cold front pushes across the waters Monday
night with high pressure building over the region through the
middle of next week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm Friday to 6 am edt Saturday
for anz632-634.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Friday to 6 am edt Saturday for
anz630-631.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Sam
aviation... Ajb bmd
marine... Ajz sam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 5 mi53 min WSW 2.9 G 6 85°F 80°F1014.8 hPa (-0.5)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 13 mi53 min SW 13 G 14 1015.4 hPa (-0.9)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 25 mi43 min W 7.8 G 9.7 82°F 1 ft1015.3 hPa
44089 27 mi53 min 72°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi53 min SW 9.9 G 12 80°F
44072 37 mi43 min SW 12 G 14 83°F 1 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 37 mi53 min SW 11 G 13 82°F 1015.3 hPa (-1.1)
44096 39 mi62 min 75°F1 ft
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi43 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 84°F 1013.5 hPa
44064 43 mi43 min 7.8 G 9.7 83°F 1 ft1015.1 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 44 mi53 min SW 8 G 12 83°F 76°F1014.6 hPa (-1.1)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi53 min SSW 6 G 8 83°F 85°F1014.6 hPa (-1.0)
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 46 mi53 min W 7 G 8.9 82°F 74°F1015.2 hPa (-0.9)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi53 min SW 5.1 G 6 84°F 79°F1014.3 hPa (-0.7)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 46 mi53 min 77°F2 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 47 mi53 min SW 4.1 G 7 84°F

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi58 minWSW 610.00 miFair85°F73°F68%1014.9 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague, Wachapreague Channel, Virginia
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Wachapreague
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:35 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:35 AM EDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:38 PM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     5.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.9-0-0.10.61.72.73.54.14.13.52.51.50.4-0.4-0.50.31.62.944.95.45.24.43.3

Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:55 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:35 AM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:53 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.30.80.3-0-0.100.40.91.41.71.81.51.20.70.2-0.1-0.2-00.41.11.72.12.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.