Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
White Stone, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:24PM Friday October 19, 2018 8:18 PM EDT (00:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:08PMMoonset 1:08AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 704 Pm Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely after midnight.
Sat..W winds 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 704 Pm Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains offshore tonight. A strong cold front crosses the waters Saturday bringing the potential for gale force wind gusts Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near White Stone, VA
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location: 37.58, -76.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 191947
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
347 pm edt Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure moves offshore through this evening in advance of
the next cold front that will cross the area during Saturday.

Strong high pressure builds into the local area during Sunday
and Monday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 300 pm edt Friday...

the center of 1026mb sfc high pressure has moved offshore this
afternoon and will continue to push eastward through this
evening. This in advance of a cold front that will approach the
local area from the wnw Saturday morning. Winds have turned to
the s-sw already this afternoon with high pressure sliding
offshore. Continued s-sw winds tonight coupled with increasing
cloud cover will promote milder temps compared to last night (on
the order of 15-20 degrees). We should also see a rapid increase
in pops after 06z as moisture increases ahead of the approaching
front. Do have slight chc pops (~20%) across the far NW by 03z
or so, then increasing to likely pops (50-70%) along north of
the nc border and 40-50% pops south after 06z. Lows tonight
mainly in the mid 50s to around 60.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
As of 300 pm edt Friday...

the cold front crosses the region from NW to SE through the day
Saturday, exiting our SE zones late Saturday afternoon. Showers
accompanying the front will be most prevalent across southern se
va into lower md during the morning (pops 55-70%), then lowering
pops from NW to SE into the afternoon. Will advertise dry
conditions returning n-nw of ric by around noon. Any lingering
showers exit SE zones Sat evening. This should be a rather low
qpf event for the local area with less than 0.25" expected.

Clouds will break for some Sun Saturday afternoon, at least for
western locations. Highs in the upr 60s to low 70s.

A potent NRN stream trough digs across the region Sat night
into Sun morning. This could result in the development of a few
showers over ERN shore and potentially NRN neck Sat night sun
morning. Have low chc pops (~30%) to account for this
potential. Otherwise, drier cooler air will arrive from the nw
into Sunday with breezy to windy conditions (strongest coast).

Forecast lows Sat night will range from the lower 40s piedmont,
to the upper 40s lower 50s se. Mostly sunny and cooler Sunday
with highs generally 55-60. Wind gusts late Sat night into
Sunday morning should reach 35-40 mph along the immediate coast.

Sfc high pressure builds into and across the region Sunday night
and Monday. This will promote a clear sky with lighter winds
and below normal temps. If winds go calm by early Monday morning
inland, we could be looking at the potential for frost. Lows
Sunday night in the low mid 30s piedmont to the low mid 40s
immediate coast. Highs Monday in the upr 50s to low 60s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 345 pm edt Friday...

a 500hpa shortwave coupled with sfc low pressure will be centered
over the northern great lakes Monday night. The area of low pressure
will then pass to our north on Tue tue night. This will drag another
cold front through our area late tue-wed. Before the front passes
through, temperatures are forecast to warm to near 70 degrees
throughout the area on tue. It will be a dry fropa, but a cooler
airmass will take over on Wed Thu as ~1030mb high pressure moves
from the great lakes to the mid-atlantic northeast. Thus, forecast
highs on Wed Thu range from the upper 50s north to the low mid 60s
over far SE va NE nc. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s
inland to near 50 along the immediate coast on both Wednesday and
Thursday night.

The weather will likely become more active late Friday into next
weekend as an area of low pressure develops over the southeast and
then (potentially) tracks northeastward near or just offshore of the
us east coast. At this time, the 19 12z gfs ECMWF gem all have
different solutions regarding the timing strength of this storm
system. This is not surprising as this potential storm is still over
a week away. For now, introduced pops of 15-30% from Friday through
the end of the extended period (12z Saturday). Forecast highs on
Friday range from the upper 50s NW to the mid 60s se, with overnight
lows in the low 40s-low 50s Friday night.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
As of 200 pm edt Friday...

mainly clear this afternoon with just a few high clouds and
relatively light s-sw winds.

A cold front approaches from the wnw tonight and moves thru the
region during sat. This will bring a period of mainly light
rain showers, along with the potential for a period of lower
cigs (mainly MVFR).VFR conditions will return behind the front
sat aftn into Sat evening from NW to se.

Outlook: breezy to windy conditions are expected late Sat night
into Sun in a NW wind, as the front exits and more cool high
pressure builds into the area. High pressure provides dry wx
andVFR conditions Sun aftn thru mon. Wind gusts to 35 kt
possible at korf Sunday morning.

Marine
As of 400 pm edt Friday...

high pressure moves offshore through this evening and a strong
cold front will begin to approach from the west. Ssw winds will
begin to increase as we head through the evening into the
overnight hours, eventually becoming 20 to 30 knots over a
majority of the waters (lower in the rivers) overnight. Thus a
small craft advisory is in effect tonight into the first half of
Saturday for all of the coastal waters minus the southern ocean
zone (winds 15-25 knots here) and the upper rivers.

Models indicate a brief lull in the activity as we head through
Saturday afternoon and evening, SW winds may briefly diminish
just below SCA at around 10 to 20 knots over the waters. The
front then crosses the waters Saturday evening bringing with it
a strong CAA surge Saturday night into the day on Sunday. Due to
the nature of the strong CAA moving over 65-70 degree waters,
expect winds to become gusty overnight Saturday out of the W nw
at around 25-35 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Thus a gale watch
is now in effect for all of the coastal waters and bay Saturday
night into Sunday. This gale watch may need to be extended into
the lower james river based on future model runs, right now
this area has gusts of 30 to 35 knots in the forecast.

Elsewhere, high-end scas will be needed after the current round
expires.

We remain breezy through the day on Sunday, but will see winds
diminish through the day, eventually becoming sub-sca by Sunday
night. High pressure builds back over the waters Monday into
Tuesday leading to calmer conditions.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Gale watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon
for anz630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to noon edt
Saturday for anz630>632-634-650-652-654-656.

Gale watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
anz633.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 am edt
Saturday for anz638.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm
short term... Jdm
long term... Eri
aviation... Jdm
marine... Ajb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 9 mi28 min SW 12 G 14 63°F 1020.7 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 19 mi48 min Calm 54°F 1021 hPa50°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 22 mi30 min SSW 19 G 25 1020.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 23 mi30 min SSW 14 G 18 64°F 1020.3 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 25 mi30 min SSW 5.1 G 8 60°F 73°F1019.6 hPa
44072 27 mi28 min SSW 14 G 18 64°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 29 mi36 min SSW 7 G 8 59°F 63°F1018.9 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 32 mi28 min SSW 12 G 16 61°F 1018.4 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 37 mi30 min SSW 16 G 20 69°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 39 mi36 min SSW 11 G 13
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 39 mi30 min SSW 11 G 15 63°F 64°F1019.8 hPa
44087 41 mi48 min 70°F2 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 42 mi36 min S 12 G 14 64°F 1019.6 hPa
CHBV2 42 mi36 min SSW 13 G 16 64°F 1019.3 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 43 mi36 min S 11 G 12 63°F 1020.7 hPa
44064 44 mi58 min SSW 14 G 16 64°F 1020.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 44 mi36 min 71°F1020.2 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi30 min SSW 8.9 G 11 63°F 1020.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi30 min SSW 15 G 18 62°F 62°F1019.3 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA19 mi43 minS 410.00 miFair58°F46°F67%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW6S5S8S6S6S7S7S4S4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3NE3CalmN5N7NW8N6N7NW7CalmNW5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmE3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmW5NW3NW5CalmW6SW6W9W8W9W9
G15
NW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:26 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:15 AM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:33 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.40.40.60.811.21.31.31.210.80.60.50.40.60.81.11.31.41.41.31.1

Tide / Current Tables for Dixie, Piankatank River, Virginia
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Dixie
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:56 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:21 AM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:03 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.40.50.711.21.31.31.210.80.60.50.40.50.711.21.41.41.41.21

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.