Friday, April26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Irvington, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:50PM Friday April 26, 2019 3:39 AM EDT (07:39 UTC) Moonrise 1:02AMMoonset 11:04AM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1231 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am edt this morning through Saturday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 kt, becoming W in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and early morning, then becoming S late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W late. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 kt, increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1231 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A warm front will slowly lift north across the area overnight. A strong cold front crosses the region late Friday. High pressure builds into the area on Saturday, with another area of low pressure passing by to the north on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irvington town, VA
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location: 37.65, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 260715
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
315 am edt Fri apr 26 2019

Synopsis
A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. A strong cold
front crosses the region this afternoon and evening. High pressure
builds into the area on Saturday. Low pressure tracks north of
the area Sunday.

Near term today and tonight
As of 315 am edt Friday...

latest msas has the warm front ivof the i64 corridor back to a low
over ohio. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front extends south across the
tn ky valley. Models show the warm front moving north of the area
later this morning with the cold front crossing the region this
aftrn and erly eve. Showers out ahead of the system this morning may
actually decrease in coverage for a few hr period after sunrise
before addntl shwrs tstms develop by late morning and erly aftrn
then continue to move east towards the coast by 00z.

Spc conts to have the most of the area in a slght risk today for a
nearly solid line of convection along the cold frontal passage.

Models still show some backing of the low level winds to a due south
this aftrn along with 40-50 kt SW winds in the mid levels. Thus,
enough shear will be present along with some destabilization in the
bndry layer for the svr potential. Sern va NE nc seem to be the
areas with the most instability due to some morning heating.

Expect the line of convection to dvlp across the mts later this
morning then intensify as it crosses the piedmont on its way to the
coast by erly eve. Will also have to watch for a few leading
supercells out ahead of the main line by erly aftrn, especially if a
differential heating bndry sets up. While an isolated tornado will
be possible, main threat will be straight line winds, with the
timing btwn 18z-22z western half 21z-01z ERN half. Chc likely pops
this morning ramp up to categorical this aftrn. A decent push of
moisture and incrg pw's will likely lead to lclly hvy downpours. In
addition, pressure gradient quickly tightens this morning resulting
in south winds bcmg gusty to btwn 20-30 kts ahead of the cold front.

Highs 70-75 nwrn zones, 75-80 sern zones where some am Sun is psbl.

The front pushes off the coast by or shortly after 00z. Models show
some moisture lingering behind the FROPA for sct shwrs across the
east during the eve. Otw, clearing across the west with enought caa
to allow dew points to drop into the 30s. Look for temps by 12z to
range from near 40 at lku to the lwr 50s along the SE coast.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 315 am edt Friday...

high pressure builds into the sern states Sat behind the departing
low. Mostly sunny and rather breezy with lower humidity. West winds
become gusty btwn 20-30 mph. Highs upr 60s-lwr 70s. Mstly clr sat
eve with increasing clouds after midnite. A few shwrs psbl late
across the nwrn zones. Lows upr 40s NW to low-mid 50s se.

Next quick moving system tracks north of the local area sun. This
will bring more clouds and slght chc pops across the north sun
morning, then dry with decreasing clouds in the aftern. A period of
more clouds and a 20% pop to NRN areas early Sunday. Highs in the
mid-upr 70s except lwr 80s se. Mstly clr and cool Sun nite. Lows in
the 40s to lwr 50s se.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 315 am edt Friday...

high pressure will move off the coast Monday and winds will turn out
of the south. A frontal boundary will stall just north of the area
wed-fri. A few waves of low pressure will move along the boundary
bring a chance of showers, mostly north of the cwa. With the
uncertainty of the location of the boundary, slight pops (20-30%)
were added with iso thunderstorms in the afternoon. Grids will have
highs in the low 80s each day and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Aviation 07z Friday through Tuesday
As of 130 am edt Friday...

latest msas shows a warm front across va which is progged to lift
north of the local area later this morning. This puts the area in
the warm sector ahead of a strong cold front that will cross the
area between 18z-00z.VFR conditions to start off the period but
will have to watch sct-bkn st along the ERN shore thru 12z.

South winds increase after 12z and become gusty btwn 25-30 kts as
the pressure gradient increases ahead of the cold front. Shwrs will
be sct out ahead of the front this morning but expect CIGS to remain
in theVFR category, although vsbys may lower for a short time during
any heavier rainfall.

The latest models continue to show a line of convection as the cold
front crosses the area. SPC has the entire area in a slght risk for
damaging wind gusts with this line. Given this scenario, confidence
high enough so that I went ahead and tried to time this line of tstms
across the area this aftrn with a few hr tempo group first starting
at ric (18-21z), phf (19-22z), sby orf (20-23z) and ecg (20-24z).

MVFR cigs, ifr vsbys in hvy rain along with gusts over 30 kts psbl.

Sct shwrs linger behind the front for a few hrs before drier air
filters in from the west after midnight.

Outlook...

vfr dry with high pressure returning Sat along with gusty wnw winds.

MainlyVFR conditions continue Sun mon.

Marine
As of 350 pm edt Thursday...

a warm front is currently located just south of a majority of the
waters. North of this boundary winds are generally out of the east
around 10 knots. South of this boundary over the southern coastal
waters, winds are out of the south at around 10 to 15 knots. The
warm front gradually lifts north this evening and overnight, turning
the winds to the S and SW by early Friday morning for all of the
waters. Meanwhile, low pressure and the associated cold front will
approach the region tonight into Friday before crossing the region
Friday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this front, SW winds will be
on the increase, becoming 15 to 25 knots over a majority of the
waters by the afternoon hours. As a result, a small craft advisory
is now in effect for all of the waters beginning Friday late morning
and continuing through Saturday. In addition to the breezy
conditions out ahead of the front, a line of showers and
thunderstorms (some strong to severe) will develop and cross the
waters by Friday evening. These storms may produce damaging wind
gusts and special marine warnings may be needed Friday evening into
the overnight hours.

The front crosses the waters late Friday into Saturday morning with
winds shifting to the W and NW behind the boundary. Winds will
increase late Friday and remain gusty through much of the day on
Saturday. Wind gusts to 30 knots will likely be common, especially
during the Friday overnight hours into early Saturday morning. Winds
may briefly gust to 35 knots over the northern most coastal waters
early Saturday morning, however these will likely be brief and
confined to mainly out 20 nm, thus no gale headlines at this time.

Expect a slow diminishing trend in winds from south to north through
the day Saturday as low pressure departs and high pressure builds
back over the southeastern states. All small craft advisories should
be allowed to expire by Saturday evening.

Sub-sca conditions are expected late Saturday into Sunday with high
pressure influencing the weather pattern. A weak disturbance passes
to the north of the region during the day on Sunday, dragging
another cold front across the region. This may bring another period
of SCA conditions Sunday into Monday with winds turning to the nw
behind the front. Calmer marine conditions are anticipated for next
week.

In additions to the gusty conditions Friday evening into Saturday,
waves seas will also be on the increase. Seas build to 4 to 7 feet
with seas as high as 8 feet across the north and out 20 nm. Waves in
the bay build to around 3 to 4 feet. Seas diminish through the day
on Saturday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt
Saturday for anz635>637-650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 pm edt
Saturday for anz630>632-634-638.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 pm edt
Saturday for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 pm edt
Saturday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Cp
aviation... Mpr
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 12 mi45 min S 5.8 G 7.8 62°F 64°F1006 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 24 mi45 min SE 7 G 8 62°F 66°F1007.8 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 28 mi45 min SSE 8 G 8 63°F 1008.3 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 29 mi45 min SSE 2.9 G 2.9 64°F 66°F1007.6 hPa
44072 33 mi39 min 62°F 64°F1 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 34 mi45 min SE 7 G 7
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 41 mi45 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 60°F 66°F1007.9 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi45 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 62°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 45 mi45 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 59°F 67°F1008.2 hPa
44087 46 mi39 min 63°F1 ft
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi45 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 60°F 62°F1007.3 hPa
CHBV2 47 mi45 min SE 5.1 G 6 62°F 1007.2 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 47 mi45 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 66°F 1007.2 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi45 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 1008.3 hPa
44064 49 mi39 min SE 5.8 G 5.8 63°F 64°F1 ft1007.9 hPa (-2.1)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 49 mi45 min 65°F1008 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA19 mi64 minENE 3 mi59°F57°F96%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW3CalmSW3CalmCalmSW4W5W8W11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmS5S6S6SW8S7S9SW8S9S7S6S5S7S4SW6SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Orchard Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Orchard Point
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Fri -- 02:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:35 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:24 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:04 PM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.711.21.41.41.31.10.90.60.40.30.30.50.711.21.21.210.80.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Urbanna, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Urbanna
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:51 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:42 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 06:20 PM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.60.91.21.41.41.31.20.90.70.50.30.30.40.60.91.11.21.21.10.90.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.