Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Irvington, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:53PM Friday February 22, 2019 2:47 AM EST (07:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 8:54AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1255 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot, building to 2 ft. A slight chance of rain, then a chance of rain late.
Fri..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely until late afternoon, then a chance of rain late.
Fri night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NE winds 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 1255 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A frontal boundary stalls over the mid atlantic and southeast states through Saturday, as high pressure builds eastward from the great lakes into new england. The front will lift back north as a warm front Saturday night. A cold front will then cross the region on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irvington town, VA
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location: 37.65, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 220525
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1225 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
A frontal boundary stalls over the mid atlantic and southeast
states into Saturday, as high pressure builds eastward from the
great lakes into new england. The front will lift back north as
a warm front Saturday. A cold front will then cross the region
during Sunday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 900 pm est Thursday...

latest msas has the frontal boundary across the sern states with
a sfc trof over the mts and high pres over the upr mid west. Skies
have partially cleared across the south this evening which has
allowed temps to fall to near the dew points resulting in ptchy
fog to dvlp. However, mid and high level clouds are quickly over
spreading the area from the west ahead of the moisture apprchg from
the wsw. Went ahead and put ptchy fog in across the south thru 06z.

Although pcpn echoes increasing in coverage on the radar loop over
the WRN half of the state, sfc obs are still reporting cigs AOA 10k
ft with no pcpn reaching the ground as of 02z. Meanwhile, low ifr st
along the coast is slowly creeping north this eve. Latest high res
data continues to show pcpn holding off until around 06z the quickly
overspreading the local area during the pre dawn hrs. Thus, adjusted
pops a bit more with the highest pops after 09z. Think the ptchy fog
arnd now scours out a bit once the clouds move in. Lows upr 30s north
to mid 40s south.

Short term 6 am this morning through Sunday
As of 355 pm est Thursday...

more rain chances will continue Fri thru Sun morning. High
pressure will build eastward fm the lower great lakes to just
off the england coast Fri thru Sat aftn, creating another cad
situation over the area. Waves of moisture energy in the SW flow
aloft coupled with the return northward of the frontal boundary
as a warm front, will result in more chances for rain, esply
acrs the SRN two thirds of the area Fri into early Sat aftn
(high chance to cat pops). Then, Sat aftn thru Sun morning, the
warm front will lift acrs the region followed by the approach of
a cold front. High chance to cat pops over most of the area
during this time period. The cold front will push off the coast
later Sun aftn early Sun evening, with pcpn ending fm W to e
late Sun morning thru Sun aftn and a clearing sky. Westerly
winds behind the front will help high temps climb into the upper
60s to mid 70s acrs most of the region on sun. Highs in the mid
to upper 40s fri, and ranging fm the lower 40s to the lower 50s
sat.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 345 pm est Thursday...

the flow aloft becomes more zonal across the CONUS early next week,
leading to less active wx across much of the country (including our
area). Drier (but still around average) Mon mon night as sfc high
pressure briefly settles into the region. Still dry seasonable on
tue as high pressure moves offshore. Highs on Mon will be in the mid-
upper 50s in most areas (except for low 50s on the ERN shore). Lows
mainly in the upper 20s-low 30s Mon night W highs rising to around
50 on the ERN shore mid 50s-around 60 elsewhere on tue. Lows tue
night range from the low 30s N NW to the around 40 se.

Models diverge in their solutions for mid-late next week. Latest
12z 21 ECMWF is forecasting high pressure to settle into the plains
(w sfc ridging extending to the NRN mid-atlantic region). The ecmwf
solution would lead to below average temps and mainly dry conditions
(perhaps a chc of light pcpn Wed night-thu). The GFS is much warmer,
as it tracks a weak area of low pressure N of the region wed-wed
night (bringing light rain), W slightly cooler air settling into
the region on thu. For now, went W a model blend from wed-thu and
kept slight chc pops in the forecast from wed-thu am (for -ra).

Forecast highs are in the 50s on wed, cooling to the mid-upper 40s
n low-mid 50s S by thu. Lows mainly in the 30s Wed Thu night.

Aviation 05z Friday through Tuesday
As of 1225 am est Friday...

another wave of moisture is streaming northeastward along a
stalled frontal boundary across the region. Patchy visibility
restrictions earlier tonight have improved as high and mid level
clouds stream into the area. CIGS areVFR MVFR and will lower
progressively through the course of the day. CIGS are forecast
to remain in the MVFR range through 23.00z before improving to
vfr. Slight visibility reductions to ~4sm are possible in areas
of precip Friday afternoon. Winds will generally be light and
variable overnight but will become northeasterly into the
morning hours. Generally below 10 knots for inland sites with
ecg and orf having the greatest chance to see sustained winds
above 10 knots.

Outlook... MVFR ifr conditions in rain, drizzle and fog
continue Fri night and Sat as a series of impulses move along
the stalled frontal bndry. The bndry moves north as a warm front
late Sat keeping unsettled wx conditions into Sun morning. A
cold front moves across the area sun.

Marine
As of 215 pm est Thursday...

light winds will shift to the nne through late aftn early evening as
a weak frontal boundary drops south over the waters. Waves 1-2 ft;
seas 2-4 ft. Some increase in wind speed is expected early Friday
morning as sfc high pressure to the N sags south into the area. Have
speeds ~15 kt, and 15-20 kt for the southern coastal waters. With
nne flow will have to watch to see if seas respond and try to build
to 5 ft. For now, not confident enough to issue SCA for this. High
pressure over the area Fri gradually retreats to the NE on sat, as a
frontal boundary begins to lift back N as a warm front Sat night.

Winds will veer to the SE Sat night then to the SW and increase on
sun as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. Sca
conditions appear likely Sun and Sun night, and potentially
lingering into Monday.

Hydrology
Noting richmond westham rising faster than anticipated this eve. Latest
update has the level of rise slowing then leveling off overnight but not
reaching flood stage until Fri eve. Held off on a warning ATTM given the
updated forecast. Other main stem rivers will see rises given the forecasted
rainfall over the next few days. Went ahead and added a blurb about this in
the hwo.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Mpr
short term... Tmg rhr
long term... Eri
aviation... Rhr mpr
marine... Jdm
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 21 mi78 min Calm 44°F 1024 hPa44°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 24 mi54 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 42°F 40°F1023.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 24 mi48 min N 8.9 G 8.9 1023.9 hPa (+0.6)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 28 mi48 min N 5.1 G 5.1 44°F 1024.2 hPa (+0.9)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 29 mi48 min Calm G 2.9 45°F 45°F1022.9 hPa (+0.3)
44072 33 mi58 min 43°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 34 mi60 min Calm G 1
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 41 mi48 min N 2.9 G 5.1 45°F 44°F1023.2 hPa (+1.6)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi48 min ENE 5.1 G 5.1 44°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 45 mi48 min Calm G 1 44°F 42°F1023.8 hPa (+1.1)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi48 min N 1.9 G 1.9 43°F 40°F1023.4 hPa (+1.1)
44087 46 mi48 min 43°F1 ft
CHBV2 47 mi54 min NE 5.1 G 5.1 44°F 1021.8 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 47 mi54 min ENE 5.1 G 6 46°F 1022.5 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi54 min ENE 1 G 4.1 46°F 1023.3 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 49 mi48 min 45°F1022.7 hPa (+0.3)
44064 49 mi38 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 44°F 1022.9 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA19 mi53 minN 010.00 miOvercast44°F44°F100%1024.4 hPa

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Last 24hrW6SW3SW5SW4SW4W5SW5W5SW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5Calm
1 day agoCalmN3E7E6NE5E7NE8E6NE6NE3NE6NE5NE5CalmCalmNW4W4NW7SE7NW6N3W5W8SW5
2 days agoN3N3CalmCalmCalmNW3N6N7N5N3N4N5NW5N6NE5CalmNE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Orchard Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Orchard Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:20 AM EST     1.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:51 AM EST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:54 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:43 PM EST     1.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:15 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.61.61.30.90.50-0.3-0.4-0.20.20.81.31.61.61.51.10.70.2-0.2-0.3-0.30.10.5

Tide / Current Tables for Urbanna, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Urbanna
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:36 AM EST     1.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:09 AM EST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:54 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:59 PM EST     1.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.61.61.41.10.60.1-0.2-0.4-0.30.10.61.11.51.61.51.20.80.3-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.10.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.