Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Urbanna, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:29PM Monday March 27, 2017 6:33 PM EDT (22:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:52AMMoonset 6:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 627 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers late.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms late in the morning. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms early in the evening...then a chance of showers late in the evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 627 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front approaches from the west tonight...and crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday into Thursday morning then slides out to sea late Thursday into Thursday night. Low pressure and another cold front will approach from the west on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Urbanna, VA
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location: 37.65, -76.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 272037
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
437 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
A cold front approaches from the west tonight and crosses the
region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. High pressure builds
in from the north on Wednesday. The high retreats to the
northeast on Thursday as the next system approaches from the
west.

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/
Latest analysis indicating main area of sfc low pressure
centered over the lower oh valley, with a weak sfc trough noted
to the lee of the appalachians near cho. Some weak ridging aloft
has generally limited showers/tstms east of the mtns so far,
while coverage of showers and storms is much greater across
tn/ky/wv. Other than a few remaining spotty light
showers/sprinkles exiting the coast, conditions look to stay
mainly dry through late aftn. With the weak sfc trough progged
to shift ene through northern va this evening, and some minimal
ml capes around 500 j/kg may see a few isolated showers/tstms
move across interior portions of the CWA so will maintain ~20%
pops through 9 pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy and warm with
temperatures mainly holding in the 70s and slowly falling into
the 60s by late evening.

Upper level ridging begins to break down later tonight... As the
mid/upper level trough currently centered over southeast
mo/southern il pushes east overnight. After a period of mainly
dry conditions, pops will ramp back up after 04-06z as the front
approaches from the W and mid-upper level heights fall along
with some increase in mid level lapse rates between 06-12z.

Low level instability will be very low, but think there is
enough instability aloft to mention a slight chance for tstms
over roughly the western 1/2 of the CWA after 08z. Will carry
~40% chc pops west of i-95 to 20% to 30% or less farther east
and southeast. Warm with lows mainly 55-60 f. With the moist
boundary layer, GFS is indicating a fair amount of fog, but
given a ssw wind of 5-10 mph and warm temperatures, think this
is overdone and that areas of low clouds are more likely.

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/
Upper level trough pushes into the area tue, with a model
consensus pushing the main shortwave energy across southern
va/and eastern nc from 18-00z. Have raised pops to likely (60%)
in the aftn over portions of far southern va and northeast nc
where deepest lift and moisture look to coincide during peak
heating hours. Maintained mainly high chance pops (50%)
elsewhere (except for a small area of likely pops across the nw.

Continued warm w/ highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s (could be
around 80 f if enough sunshine develops). There will be some
potential for a few stronger storms Tue aftn/evening as speed
and directional shear increases and sfc dew pts will be around
60f. Overall not looking like widespread severe wx as there is
still some question as to how much storm organization there will
be as latest models are hinting at a lot of clouds and an
earlier arrival of precip by late morning. SPC has area in
marginal risk for severe wx and this seems about right given the
current parameters depicted in the models. Overall, highest
shear values look to reside over nc.

Will linger the chance pops through the early evening W and to
around midnight along the coast. Drying after midnight with
lows mainly 50-55 f. Becoming partly/mostly sunny Wed after some
early clouds (especially south) as drier air moves in from the
n. Somewhat cooler but still a little above avg with highs
60-65f near the coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well
inland. Upper ridge axis quickly moves back into the region by
thu, allowing return of mid/high clouds during the day. With
fairly low mixing and overrunning clouds, expect a cooler day
with highs mainly ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Kept it dry through 22z despite the increase in clouds.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/
Good chc for showers and possible tstms later Thu night into
early Sat morning, as low pressure and another associated cold
front approaches and moves acrs the region. Dry wx and high
pressure returns for Sat aftn thru Sun night. Yet another system
may approach fm the west late mon.

Highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s fri, in the 60s to near 70
sat, in the mid 60s to lower 70s sun, and in the 60s to near 70
mon. Lows in the 40s Thu night, in the upper 40s to mid 50s fri
night, in the 40s Sat night, and in the mid 40s to near 50 sun
night.

Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/
GenerallyVFR ceilings are expected for this afternoon and into
the first half of the night for the forecast area. Only a few
scattered sprinkles are left across eastern parts of the area
this afternoon, rain coverage is not high enough to include in
the taf. Any sprinkles/light showers should continue to
dissipate through the afternoon. Abundant low level moisture
across the region has allowed for bkn cumulus to develop with
bases around 3500 feet. Any cumulus should diminish after
sunset.

Skies are expected to become mainly clear for the first half of
the night with only some high clouds. MVFR ceilings and
potentially patchy fog may develop late tonight and into early
tomorrow morning, especially at sby and ric, due to the moist
airmass in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible during the day on Tuesday, with the potential for a few
storms to be severe Tuesday late afternoon and evening.

Outlook: unsettled weather conditions will continue into Tuesday
night due to the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Sub-
vfr conditions will be possible once again Wednesday morning due
to low ceilings and the potential for fog. Dry/vfr conditions
return on Wednesday as winds shift to the north. The next storm
system is expected to approach the area Friday bringing the next
chance of adverse aviation conditions.

Marine
No headlines in the short term tonight thru wed. Late this aftn,
high pressure was well off the mid atlc coast while low pressure
was cntrd over SRN il/extrm ERN ky. The low and its associated
cold front will approach fm the west tonight into Tue morning,
then move acrs the area and off the coast late tue/tue night.

Ssw winds generally 10 to 15 kt will continue tonight into tue
evening, then become NW then N Tue night into Wed morning behind
the front. N winds 10 to 15 kt during wed, as high pressure
starts to build in fm the n. Do not expect SCA conditions to be
met thru wed. High pressure will continue to build in fm the n
wed night into Thu morning, then slides out to sea Thu aftn into
thu night. Nne winds 15 kt or less Wed night, then NE 5 to 15 kt
thu aftn. E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming SE Thu night.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Alb/lkb
long term... Tmg
aviation... Ajb
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 18 mi64 min S 2.9 78°F 1015 hPa56°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 18 mi34 min S 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 50°F1 ft1015.4 hPa (-2.1)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 25 mi46 min SSW 8 G 8.9 73°F 54°F1013.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 29 mi34 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 60°F 49°F1 ft1013 hPa (-2.1)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 30 mi46 min S 12 G 17 74°F 51°F1014.3 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 30 mi46 min SSW 11 G 12 69°F 1014.1 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 31 mi46 min S 15 G 15 1015.5 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 33 mi34 min SSW 7.8 G 14 72°F 56°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 34 mi46 min SSW 8 G 8.9
44072 35 mi34 min S 5.8 G 7.8 62°F 50°F1 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 46 mi46 min S 12 G 12 51°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 47 mi46 min S 8.9 G 12 63°F 58°F1015.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 47 mi46 min E 8.9 G 9.9
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi46 min SW 9.9 G 11 64°F 1015.1 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi46 min SSE 8 G 8 55°F 53°F1014.7 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 49 mi46 min SW 9.9 G 11 72°F 1016 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA13 mi64 minS 710.00 miFair76°F54°F48%1014.9 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA22 mi39 minSSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F46°F34%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9NE5E10E6NE3E3CalmE4SE4SE4SE4SE5SE4S5S6SW7S5SW8S10
G18
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1 day agoS3S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4CalmCalmE4NE4NE6NE6NE6E7NE5NE9N5E10NE9E12E8
2 days agoS8S5SW7SW6SW8SW6SW7S5SW9
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SW10S8SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Urbanna, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Urbanna
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Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:10 PM EDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.51.20.80.40.1-0.1-0.10.20.71.11.51.61.61.310.50.1-0.1-0.10.10.511.5

Tide / Current Tables for Orchard Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Orchard Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:51 AM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.41.10.70.3-0-0.100.40.81.31.61.71.61.30.90.40.1-0.1-0.10.20.71.21.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.