Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
King and Queen Court House, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:35PM Thursday June 21, 2018 1:02 AM EDT (05:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:24PMMoonset 12:54AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 1229 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1229 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will approach the area from the north overnight. The front pushes south through the area on Thursday, then stalls over north carolina Thursday night into Friday. This front lifts back north as a warm front Friday night into Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near King and Queen Court House, VA
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location: 37.65, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 210227
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1027 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the area from the north overnight.

The front pushes south through the area on Thursday, then stalls
over north carolina Thursday night into Friday. This front
lifts back north as a warm front Friday night into Saturday.

Near term until 8 am Thursday morning
As of 1015 pm edt Wednesday...

latest analysis indicating a weak area of sfc low pressure
across southern pa, progged to move ese overnight due to wnw
flow aloft. A weak frontal boundary remains over the bay and
eastern shore and will push back to the DELMARVA coast as a
warm front overnight. Generally scattered showers persist along
with some embedded (but weakening) tstms. For the next few hrs,
will have an area of likely pops over the north and also in ne
nc along the albemarle sound per latest radar imagery. The
coverage of showers and tstms will gradually wane after midnight
(and especially after 06z). Added some patchy fog to areas W of
i-95 and N of route 460 where partial clearing is likely and
temperatures have cooled into the upper 60s around 70 f. Lows
overnight will avg in the upper 60s NW to the lower 70s most
other places.

Short term 8 am Thursday morning through Saturday
As of 400 pm edt Wednesday...

a cold front sags south through the area on Thursday, settling
near the va nc border late. Best chc of showers tstms will shift
into central SRN va NE nc (50-60% pops), with 30-40% pops ne.

Highs Thursday will be in the mid upper 80s to low 90s (around
80f for the immediate atlantic md coast). By Friday, high
pressure builds over coastal new england resulting in onshore
flow, with the aforementioned frontal boundary remaining
stationary across north-central or NE nc. Will generally have
highest pops (50-70%) across central southern va into NE nc
Thursday night, perhaps lifting a bit further north overnight.

By Friday, highest pops will be inland (50-70%) where some
embedded tstms will be possible, to 30-40% along the coast.

Guidance is starting to settle toward a consensus on high
temperatures Friday, from the mid 70s far NW to the low 80s ric
metro to the mid upr 80s SE va NE nc. Our meandering frontal
boundary lifts back north as a warm front Friday night into
Saturday morning. Highest pops will shift north with the front
during this time. By Saturday, expecting temps to warm up again.

Will also have to watch a shortwave progged to cross the region
in the afternoon that could touch of a line of tstms. Highs in
the 80s to low 90s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 400 pm edt Wednesday...

shower thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night-Sunday morning
for the eastern third of the CWA as a surface trough continues to
linger across the region. A potent shortwave dives southeastward
from canada to the northeastern us on Monday. The associated surface
low pressure system will drag a cold front southward across the
region late Sunday into Monday bringing another chance for showers
and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary pushes south during the day
on Monday with a few lingering showers t-storms possible across
mainly southern portions of the cwa. The latest 20 12z ECMWF has
only isolated-scattered showers t-storms Sunday night-Monday while
the GFS has more widespread t-storms. Thus, opted to maintain no
higher than 50% pops Sunday night-Monday. Behind the cold front,
high pressure builds in north of the area bringing drier and cooler
conditions to the region from Tuesday through the middle of next
week.

Sunday will likely be the warmest day of the extended period with
with highs in the lower 90s for most areas. Highs will cool to the
mid-upper 80s on Monday with low-mid 80s expected on Tuesday.

Warming up slightly on Wednesday with highs between 83-87. Expect
morning lows between 70-75 on Sunday and Monday cooling into the 60s
for Tuesday Wednesday.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
As of 800 pm edt Wednesday...

two areas of concern for t-storms as of 745 pm this evening. One
is NE nc where two clusters of t-storms are ongoing and moving
toward ecg. Thus, am expecting t-storms with ifr lifr +ra
in ecg intermittently from 00z through 02-03z tonight. There is
another line of t-storms stretching from washington, dc to
charlottesville, va. This line is forecast to weaken some but am
still expecting MVFR shras with some thunder in sby from 02-06z
tonight. The southern edge of this line could impact ric, but not
enough confidence to include it in the taf. Therefore, may need to
amend the TAF for ric when things become clearer. At orf phf, expect
mainly shras through 03-06z tonight with little to no thunder. Any
lingering showers should wind down after 06z tonight. Sct-bkn
(mainlyVFR) clouds expected through the night after the showers
end.

Outlook: the cold front settles near the va nc border on Thursday,
with the best potential for aftn evening showers t-storms mainly
over central SRN SE va and NE nc. Went ahead and included vcsh after
18z Thursday for all sites except sby. High pressure settles over
new england Friday resulting in onshore flow. Remaining unsettled as
an upper level trough approaches from the SW with a 20-40% chc of
showers along the coast, and 40-60% farther inland. The potential
for aftn evening showers tstms will continue Saturday and
Sunday.

Marine
As of 230 pm edt Wednesday...

no headlines anticipated in the short term this evening into Friday.

Current observations show generally light and variable winds over
the waters. Seas range from 1 to 2 feet and waves 1 foot. A weak
frontal boundary drops into the region later this evening which will
bring increasing winds and the chance for showers or thunderstorms.

Winds become southeast 10 knots or less this evening and then
southerly overnight. Winds shift to the N NW on Thursday as the
boundary moves south of the region. The gradient strengthens Friday
into Friday night, bringing onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots and the
potential for 5 foot seas across the northern zones. The flow
becomes more southeasterly Saturday morning and then southerly as a
warm front lifts over the waters. Breezy conditions are expected
Saturday and small craft advisories may be needed for both winds and
seas into Sunday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Lkb
short term... Jdm
long term... Ajb eri
aviation... Eri jdm
marine... Ajb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 19 mi93 min WSW 1.9 78°F 1011 hPa77°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 33 mi63 min W 5.1 G 6 75°F 83°F1008.6 hPa (+0.7)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 35 mi43 min W 5.8 G 7.8 77°F 1007.7 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 37 mi63 min WSW 7 G 9.9 75°F 82°F1009.1 hPa (+0.6)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 39 mi69 min WSW 7 G 8
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 40 mi63 min WNW 13 G 17 77°F 1010.1 hPa (+0.7)
44072 46 mi43 min WNW 14 G 18 77°F
NCDV2 47 mi63 min SW 7 G 8 74°F 82°F1007.5 hPa (-1.4)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 48 mi63 min W 15 G 17 1009.9 hPa (+1.2)

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA11 mi68 minSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F74°F99%1009.5 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA15 mi68 minSW 47.00 miRain74°F73°F99%1009.5 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA24 mi69 minN 010.00 miLight Rain71°F69°F94%1009.6 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S3S3SE3SE6S3NW4W3S3SE3SW4W3W6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W3W4W6W5W4W6W5W6W6W5--W6CalmW5W3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W4CalmSW5SW3W4W3SW3CalmSE4S4SE5SE3S3CalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Wakema, Mattaponi River, Virginia
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Wakema
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Thu -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:09 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:29 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.40.10.30.91.72.63.13.33.12.61.810.4000.51.42.33.13.63.63.22.6

Tide / Current Tables for Sweet Hall Landing, Pamunkey River, Virginia
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Sweet Hall Landing
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Thu -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:18 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:40 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:46 PM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.40.20.20.71.31.92.42.62.52.21.610.40.100.311.72.42.82.92.72.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.