Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harborton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:44PM Friday December 15, 2017 6:49 PM EST (23:49 UTC) Moonrise 4:34AMMoonset 3:23PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 302 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Saturday morning...
Through 7 pm..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Building to 2 to 3 ft late. A chance of rain.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 302 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure will move northeast off the virginia tidewater this evening and then intensify while pushing well off the mid atlantic coast tonight. High pressure will become centered along the southeast coast over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harborton, VA
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location: 37.67, -75.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 152059
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
359 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks northeast and away from the mid atlantic
tonight. High pressure returns Saturday and slides offshore
Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Current WV imagery depicts wsw flow aloft from the gulf coast
states to the carolina coast, with a vigorous trough pushing
across the great lakes. High pressure has retreated to the ne,
and surface low pressure is developing off the va capes in
response to the trough approaching from the w. The current
regional radar mosaic shows a band of enhanced reflectivity from
ne md SE pa across central nj with lighter echoes farther s
over the central delmarva. Some enhancement is expected over the
lower md ERN shore over the next few hours, with drier air
arriving after 7 pm. Pops remain highest over the md ERN shore,
with a sharp cut-off into the NRN neck and va ERN shore. Thermal
profiles suggest mainly snow for dorchester and far NW wicomico
counties, with a rain snow mix in vicinity of sby and mainly
rain closer to the coast. Generally less than 0.5" of snow
accumulation is expected with up to 1" possible for nrn
dorchester county. Not enough accumulation for an advisory.

However, timing of the heaviest snowfall will occur around the
late aftn eve commute so motorists should be prepared to take
necessary precautions. Clearing is then expected overnight with
lows ranging from the mid upper 20s inland to around 30f at the
coast.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
High pressure builds across the southeast CONUS Saturday and
becomes centered in vicinity of the nc coast by Saturday night.

Highs Saturday rise into the mid 40s N to the upper 40s near 50f
s with a partly sunny sky N to mostly sunny sky s. Mostly clear
and seasonally cool Saturday night with lows ranging from the
upper 20s around 30f inland to the mid 30s for coastal SE va ne
nc.

High pressure slides offshore Sunday as a weak trough pushes
across the great lakes. Some upper level SRN stream moisture
will arrive ahead of this wave, which will result in increasing
clouds Sunday. Highs Sunday range from around 50f N to the mid
50s s. High pressure remains offshore Monday. A dampening srn
stream wave pushes into the tennessee valley by Monday aftn.

Decreasing clouds Sunday night with lows ranging from the
mid upper 30s N to the low 40s se. Increasing clouds and mild
Monday with highs generally 55-60f.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Rising 500mb heights on Monday will help afternoon temperatures
approach the 60 degree mark. Moisture will also be on the
increase, most prominently in the south. A compact impulse of
energy moves into eastern nc Monday during the day, helping to
spark a few showers, mainly across extreme south va and northern
nc. Will keep a slight chance of showers going through the
overnight, followed by a lull in activity Tuesday morning.

Models diverge in their solutions for Tuesday and beyond. The
gfs canadian suggest a chance of rain Tuesday through early
Wednesday, ending during the day on Wednesday... While the euro
waits to move any rain in until Wednesday afternoon, continuing
through Thursday morning. Confidence is somewhat higher with the
gfs canadian than the euro at this time, so went with conditions
drying out Wednesday and Thursday.

High pressure builds back in, keeping us rain-free Thursday and
Friday. In the future and beyond, moisture increases from the
southwest early Saturday ahead of another approaching cold
front.

Temperatures will be above climate normals through Tuesday and
then cool down Wednesday behind a cold front. Another warm up is
expected Thursday and especially Friday with winds swinging back
out of the southwest.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
High pressure is retreating to the NE today as low pressure
develops and track to the NE off the va capes. MVFR CIGS are
present as of 18z at ric phf orf and should persist through
20-21z before lifting. At sby, a light mix of ra sn is expected
to develop later this aftn, with a period of -sn possible
between 21-00z. This has the potential to produce MVFR cigs
~1.5kft along with ifr vsby. Ecg is expected to remainVFR.

Drier air rapidly arrives from the NW this evening as the low
pushes farther to the ne. High pressure builds across the
southeast tonight and Saturday bringingVFR conditions. High
pressure becomes centered over ERN nc Saturday night and then
slides offshore Sunday as weak low pressure pushes through the
great lakes. Weak low pressure approaches from the wsw Monday,
but much of the moisture is expected to remain S of the region.

A cold front approaches from the NW Tuesday and pushes through
the area by Wednesday with only minimal chc of showers later
Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

Marine
The developing sfc low is now over portions of the tidewater
between chesapeake and virginia beach and is moving off to the
ene. North of the low have seen a persistent E to NE flow with
winds 10 to 15 kt, which were a bit more than the guidance
depicted. Those winds are now beginning to turn to the north as
the low is moving off the coast. Once the low gets off the coast
in the next couple of hours and continues to strengthen, will
see the winds turn N - NW and increase to 15 to 20 kt with
higher gust to around 25 kt, especially over the coastal waters
as the colder air off to the NW gets pulled off shore. Have kept
headlines in place for low end SCA conditions.

The winds will begin to relax by Sat afternoon as high pressure
slides over the area and the cold advection ends. This will
allow for a period of lighter winds and more tranquil seas of 1
- 2 ft through Sunday. By Monday the high pressure system will
pull east off the coast and the flow will turn southerly, but
will remain with winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with seas 2
- 3 ft. This will continue through Tuesday in Wednesday when a
fresh cold front crosses the waters and once again the winds
will kick up to low end SCA levels.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Saturday for anz632-634.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est
Saturday for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Saturday for anz630-631-656-658.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est
Saturday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Ajz jdm
near term... Ajz jdm
short term... Ajz
long term... Ajb bms
aviation... Ajz
marine... Ess


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 9 mi49 min NW 4.1 G 13 33°F 39°F1012.9 hPa (+2.4)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 13 mi49 min NW 19 G 22 1014.3 hPa (+2.8)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 24 mi39 min N 14 G 16 33°F 2 ft1014.3 hPa
44089 27 mi49 min 51°F3 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 36 mi49 min NW 17 G 21 44°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 37 mi39 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 32°F 1 ft1013.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi49 min NW 8.9 G 11 31°F 40°F1014.3 hPa (+2.2)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 40 mi49 min NNW 7 G 8.9 29°F 35°F1014.3 hPa (+2.3)
44072 40 mi39 min NNW 14 G 18 36°F 2 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 40 mi49 min NW 12 G 13 35°F 1014.6 hPa (+2.3)
44096 45 mi58 min 51°F3 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 46 mi49 min WNW 12 G 16 35°F 46°F1013.9 hPa (+2.0)
CHBV2 46 mi49 min NW 19 G 23 38°F 48°F1012.5 hPa
44064 48 mi39 min NW 16 G 19 38°F 2 ft1013.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi49 min N 8 G 9.9

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW17
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G33
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NW24
G36
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G37
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G41
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G34
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SW17
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA3 mi54 minNW 10 G 1910.00 miOvercast34°F29°F84%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE3N5NE3CalmNE3CalmN6N6N5NE5NE4NE5NE6NE8NE4E6E6
G14
E6E6NW7NW12NW13
G20
NW8
1 day agoSW5S4S4S11
G21
SW6S10
G14
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G22
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G20
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2 days agoNW13
G17
NW12
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G28
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NW23
G29
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G24
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W22W13
G25
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G14
SW6
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:20 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:32 AM EST     1.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:23 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:10 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:45 PM EST     1.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.40.1-000.30.71.21.61.81.81.61.30.90.50.200.10.40.81.21.41.51.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:41 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:59 AM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:22 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:32 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:13 PM EST     1.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.60.2-0-0.10.10.61.21.722.221.71.20.70.30.10.10.30.71.21.51.71.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.