Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harborton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday June 22, 2017 4:20 PM EDT (20:20 UTC) Moonrise 3:30AMMoonset 5:53PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 106 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft...building to 3 to 4 ft late. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 106 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Bermuda high pressure prevails through Saturday. The remnants of cindy will pass across the region Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front pushes across the coast Saturday night. Another cold front pushes across the region Monday night with high pressure returning through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harborton, VA
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location: 37.67, -75.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221941
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
341 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
Bermuda high pressure begins to shift back towards the eastern
seaboard through tonight. The high becomes centered off the
southeast coast Friday and Saturday... As a surface cold front
approaches the region from the northwest. Tropical moisture from
the remnants of TD cindy will push across the region ahead of
the front for Friday night through early Saturday... Before the
front shifts offshore late in the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Latest weather analysis features tropical depression cindy
moving n-ne over the ARKLATEX region of the lower mississippi
river valley. Out ahead of the system, a broad plume of mid to
upper level clouds has pushed across the mid-south into the
carolinas. To the north, a quasi-stationary boundary remains in
place along and just north of the mason-dixon line, extending
nw into the western great lakes. Meanwhile, the bermuda high is
settling in off the southeast coast and will remain there
through at least Saturday. 12z soundings indicate ssw flow has
allowed for quick moistening out ahead of the system, with pw
values already ~1.50"... Running just a bit faster than model
timing.

Slight to low end chance (20-30%) pop continues for isolated to
widely sct convection over the southern 1 3 of the area (mainly
us-460 south) this aftn. A couple of lobes of shortwave energy
out ahead of TD cindy lift ene from the tn valley SE states this
afternoon. Given that shear is still on the low side, expect
activity over the local area to drop off quickly with loss of
heating, with most pcpn remaining to our w-sw through midnight.

Overall, increasing clouds, very warm muggy for the balance of
this aftn with highs reaching into the lower 90s most areas and
dewpoints around 70f.

More widespread area of showers pushes in late tonight as
theta-e ridge pushes across the piedmont toward the eastern
shore late tonight into Friday morning. Expect a period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall during this time frame, and
have therefore continued likely pop mainly NW of a fvx-ric-sby
line. Farther south, have gone with a low chance pop for some
isolated showers over south central va and NE nc. Warm and muggy
overnight with lows in the 70s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
The core remnants of TD cindy will merge with the approaching
cold front on Friday, and lift NE from the mid-south toward the
central and southern appalachians Friday afternoon and night
before crossing the local area late Friday night through
Saturday morning. Out ahead of the system, rain showers
associated with lead shortwave theta-e ridge will push across
the northern tier of counties Friday morning. Expect a brief
period of partial clearing behind this initial wave, which
should allow for strong surface-based instability. Pw values
will creep to and above 2" by Friday morning. Additionally,
expect 0-6km deep layer shear will be on the order of 35-45 kt,
with hi-res models showing a pronounced low level jet streak of
~50 kt just to the north by mid to late afternoon. The caveat to
all this thunderstorm potential is that regional soundings
continue to indicate a fairly substantial capping inversion that
will need to be overcome to realize the strong convective
threat. Given strong amount of lift to the north, expect that
best chance for t-storms tomorrow afternoon will be across our
northern tier of counties, and have oriented a high end pop for
scattered t-storms Friday afternoon. Farther south, removed from
the better dynamics, have tapered back to a 20-30 pop tomorrow
afternoon. Very warm and humid tomorrow with highs again u80s to
low 90s inland. Warm and muggy Friday night with lows in the
70s.

After another brief lull tomorrow night, the actual remnants of
cindy track across the approaching cold front early Saturday
morning. Given favorable dynamics and pw values AOA 2", expect a
period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall across the northern
half of the region. Despite short-lived heavy rain rates in the
tropical airmass Sat morning, progressive nature of system
should preclude too many flooding issues. However, important to
note that flash flood values are lower than they typically would
be for this time of year, especially along the i-64 corridor.

Therefore, we will have to watch this time frame closely. Front
will push to the coast and then offshore by Saturday evening,
with pops gradually diminishing Saturday afternoon and early
evening. Locally heavy rainfall possible along the coast and
southern zones into the early evening hours on Saturday.

Remaining warm and moderately humid Saturday. Highs mainly in
the mid to upper 80s to around 90 SE zones.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Cold front stalls along the southeast coast Saturday night into
Sunday as an upper level trough deepens over the great lakes
region into the ohio valley. Deepest moisture pushes south of
the local area Saturday night, but have kept low end chance pops
across the far southeast forecast area. Frontal boundary
expected to remain in the vicinity of northeast north carolina
Sunday due to southwest flow aloft. Isolated to scattered
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible across
the southeast Sunday afternoon, nearest the boundary and better
instability, but expect much of the forecast area to remain dry
Sunday. Highs generally in the mid 80's. Thereafter, medium
range guidance drops a stronger cold front Monday Monday night
as additional energy dives down the back side of the upper
trough. Guidance indicates the moisture and instability will be
limited ahead of the front, but given the dynamics, have kept
chance pops Monday afternoon. Cooler Monday, with highs ranging
from the low to mid 80's. Trough axis swings across the region
Tuesday as the front pushes offshore. Drying conditions expected
Tuesday, but have kept slight chance to low end chance pops
across the far southeast given model uncertainty with respect to
the front. Highs generally around 80 Tuesday as 850mb
temperatures level off at 10-12c (-1 standard deviation). Inland
locations (and along the immediate coast) could only warm into
the upper 70's. Dewpoints mix into the 50's, resulting in
pleasant afternoon conditions. Dry conditions forecast Wednesday
as the trough pushes offshore and heights build over the ohio
valley. Surface high pressure settles over the mid-atlantic.

Highs Wednesday generally in the low 80's.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr conditions are expected through this afternoon and evening. Mid
and high level clouds will continue to increase this afternoon as
shortwave energy from TD cindy tracks ene from the tn valley se
states. Patchy rain showers will work into primarily western and
northern portions of the region overnight, potentially impacting ric
and sby. There will also be the potential for MVFR stratus,
particularly at ric, tomorrow morning. Winds increase out of the sw
on Friday afternoon, gusts in excess of 20 knots will be possible.

Outlook: additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop on Friday afternoon and again on Saturday as the remnants
of TD cindy arrive just ahead of a cold front. Periods of MVFR will
be possible in heavier showers on Friday and Saturday. The front
exits the NE nc coast by Sunday morning with winds shifting to the
nw and conditions improving toVFR as cooler, drier air arrives in
its wake.

Marine
High pressure is situated off the southeast coast early this
morning as TS cindy moves onshore along the NRN gulf coast.

Additionally, a weak front is immediately north of the local
marine area. High pressure is expected to prevail off the
southeast coast through Saturday as the remnant low of cindy
tracks through the tennessee valley Friday and Friday night, and
then across the NRN mid-atlantic Saturday. A SW wind will
average 10-15kt today through tonight and Friday, with 2-3ft
seas and 1-2ft waves in the bay. A cold front will push into the
ern great lakes Friday and this combined with the approach of
the remnant low will result in a tightening pressure gradient
and strengthening low- level jet Friday night through midday
Saturday. A SW wind will increase to 15-25kt (gusts up to 30kt
possible in the ocean bay), with 4-6ft seas possible out near
20nm mainly north of parramore island, with 3-4ft seas farther
south. SCA conditions are increasingly likely Friday night into
Saturday. A cold front pushes across the coast Saturday night,
followed by a stronger cold front Monday night with high
pressure building over the region through the middle of next
week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm Friday to 6 am edt Saturday
for anz630>632-634.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Sam
aviation... Ajb bmd
marine... Ajz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 9 mi51 min W 4.1 G 7 87°F 82°F1015.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 13 mi51 min S 9.9 G 11 1016.5 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 24 mi41 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 83°F 1016.6 hPa
44089 27 mi51 min 72°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 36 mi51 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 79°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 37 mi41 min W 3.9 G 5.8 85°F 1014.4 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 40 mi51 min WSW 5.1 G 6 85°F 1016.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi51 min W 8 G 9.9 86°F 79°F1015.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 40 mi51 min SSW 8 G 8.9 82°F 82°F1015.8 hPa
44072 40 mi41 min W 1.9 G 3.9 84°F
44096 45 mi60 min 67°F2 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 46 mi51 min WSW 5.1 G 8 86°F 78°F1015.9 hPa
44064 48 mi41 min 7.8 G 7.8 83°F 1016.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi51 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA3 mi26 minWSW 610.00 miFair88°F68°F52%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
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Thu -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:55 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:35 AM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:53 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.30.80.3-0-0.100.40.91.41.71.81.51.20.70.2-0.1-0.2-00.41.11.72.12.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:05 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:50 AM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:07 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.71.10.4-0.1-0.3-0.20.30.91.51.921.91.50.90.3-0.2-0.5-0.30.20.91.72.42.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.