Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 7:49 PM   Moonset 5:24 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 957 Am Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm edt this afternoon - .
Rest of today - SW winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers late this morning, then isolated showers this afternoon. Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Sat - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sun night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

ANZ600 957 Am Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a cold front crosses the local waters tonight. High pressure builds north of the local waters Thursday into Friday before moving offshore this weekend.

FXUS61 KAKQ 241253 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 853 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front pushes through the region today, with some scattered showers expected. Strong high pressure then builds east from the eastern Great Lakes to off the New England coast Thursday through Friday. A marked warming trend is then expected for Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers or sprinkles with a passing cold front this morning through the afternoon.

Latest analysis reveals 1020+mb sfc high pressure centered offshore of the southeast coast at sunrise this morning. To the west, low pressure was crossing the central Appalachians along an approaching cold front. This system will cross the area later this morning, as the front drops into the region. To the north, a stronger low was analyzed crossing SE Quebec, with its cold front extending back into the upper Great Lakes and the mid- Missouri Valley. Aloft, a weakening shortwave embedded in NW flow aloft was noted diving across the Ohio Valley toward the mid-Atlantic region early this morning. Behind this feature, low amplitude shortwave ridging was building east from the Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys.

Some minor adjustments to PoPs per latest satellite/radar trends. The first cold front drops across the region this morning, before briefly stalling this afternoon and eventually clearing the area this evening. Little to no instability to speak of with this system and PWs remain unimpressive, owing to flow turning downslope east of the mountains. Thus, expect little more than increasing clouds and some scattered showers with the frontal passage, now through the early afternoon north, and late morning into mid-afternoon central and south.
QPF on the order of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch.
Maintained a slight to low- end chance PoP after 22z (6p-8p) for a stray shower or two as the front exits, but otherwise drying out tonight. Highs in the low to mid 70s, except upper 60s for the immediate coast

The second front associated with the upper wave drops through with little fanfare this evening. Clearing late tonight into the overnight hours, as cool 1028+mb surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. There still seems enough mixing to keep temperatures from dropping off too much except over the far N/NW zones Wed night. Lows in the low 40s far NW (US-15 corridor), with mid 40s to around 50F elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures remain near to just below normal through the late week period.

- Mainly dry, with patchy frost possible Thursday night.

High pressure builds east from the eastern Great Lakes into New England on Thursday, before sliding off the New England coast on Friday. Mostly sunny and cool each day with highs ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s (coolest along the coast Thu due to modest onshore flow). Clear/mostly clear Thu night with lows ranging from the upr 30s to mid 40s. Patchy frost may be possible once again, mainly over the northern 1/2 of the FA from the piedmont to e-central VA and the eastern shore. A bit milder Fri night as the airmass modifies (but remains near to below normal) courtesy of persistent onshore flow. Lows Friday night range through the 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Marked warming trend expected for the weekend into early next week.

- Rain chances return ahead of and with an approaching cold front by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

The medium range forecast period begins with an amplifying upper ridge from the Gulf of Mexico to the upper midwest, expanding to the east coast over the weekend. As high pressure builds offshore and settles in the western Atlantic Saturday through Tuesday, expect temperatures trend back upward through the period; from near normal Sat (highs in the 70s, except 60s Eastern Shore), to above normal Sun-Mon (low-mid 80s inland, upper 70s to around 80 coast) as the upper ridge remains across the ern CONUS over the weekend into Monday, before finally breaking down by the middle of next week. The next front approaches from the west Mon/Tue next week. Our next chance for showers and isolated storms will be possible with the frontal passage itself by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 655 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mid to high clouds continue to increase early this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the 12z TAF period. Winds will generally be W-SW this morning with some gusts to ~20 kt, especially at the coastal terminals. Scattered showers this morning w/the cold frontal passage through mid-afternoon. Will limit mention to VCSH at ECG with VCSH/-SHRA at all other terminals, with flight categories remaining VFR throughout the period (CIGs lowering to 5-7 kft AGL by late morning/early afternoon). Winds generally become westerly behind the frontal passage this evening.

Outlook: Behind the frontal passage, dry and predominately VFR conditions persist for the late week period into the weekend.

MARINE
As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) SCAs remain in effect for all local waters early today.

2) Another round of SCA conditions is likely tonight into Thursday behind a cold front.

SCAs remain in effect until 10 AM this morning for the upper rivers and Currituck Sound, 1 PM for the Lower James and Ches Bay, and 7 PM for the coastal waters (due to lingering seas). Winds early this morning were SW 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds gradually diminish to 10-15 kt by this afternoon behind a prefrontal trough and ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front stalls inland this afternoon into this evening before pushing SE across the local waters tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure builds into the Great Lakes today, building towards the local area Thu into Fri. Ahead of the front, winds become light (5-10 kt) this evening before becoming N then NE 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt overnight behind the front. Weak low pressure develops along the cold front as it pushes offshore. The pressure gradient between the weak offshore low and the high building in from the N will allow for NE winds to linger through Fri before becoming E Fri night. However, winds should drop below SCA criteria Thu night and linger around 13-17 kt Thu night through Fri night. SCAs will be needed for at least the initial portion of the surge tonight into Sat. Conditions are marginal for the upper rivers, but there should be at least a few hours of SCA winds tonight. Winds become SE 10-15 kt Sat as high pressure moves offshore.

Waves and seas were generally 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively early this morning. Seas build to 5-7 ft later this morning before gradually subsiding this afternoon. Seas subside below SCA criteria this evening before building back to 5-6 ft late tonight into Thu night behind the cold front. Seas may linger around 4-5 ft across the S coastal waters through Fri due to persistent onshore flow.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 855 PM EDT Wednesday...

A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to begin tonight behind a cold front passage, lingering into Friday. While widespread coastal flooding is not expected, localized coastal flooding is possible along portions of the James river with nuisance to minor flooding possible during the Thursday night high tide at Smithfield, VA.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633- 635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:20 AM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:03 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:42 PM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:41 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:20 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:03 PM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:11 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop




Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dover AFB, DE,