Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pastoria, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:56PM Sunday September 24, 2017 2:55 AM EDT (06:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:01AMMoonset 8:49PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1242 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late tonight...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft...building to 5 to 6 ft after midnight...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft...building to 6 to 8 ft after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft...building to 8 to 12 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..Tropical storm conditions possible. NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Wed..Tropical storm conditions possible. NE winds 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft...building to 10 to 13 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft...subsiding to 8 to 11 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1242 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the weekend, while the remnants of jose lift northeast away from the area. Hurricane maria will move slowly northward or north- northwest off the southeast coast through the middle of next week. SEe the national hurricane center advisories for details. SWells from hurricane maria will begin to impact coastal area by late this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pastoria, VA
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location: 37.71, -75.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240639
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
239 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to influence the weather pattern
through Sunday night. Hurricane maria is forecast to move
northward between the offshore atlantic waters and bermuda
through most of the upcoming week. A cold front is expected to
cross the area by mid week and push maria east of the region.

Near term through today
Latest msas has high pressure centered along the coast. Meanwhile,
cirrus well in advance of maria is overspreading the southern
half of the fa. Main adjustment to grids overnight was to increase
the cloud coverage a bit across SRN half of fa. Mstly clr skies
with patchy fog psbl away from the water. Lows from the upr 50s
wrn piedmont to mid 60s sern coastal areas.

Pvs dscn:
the stacked high slowly slides eastward on sun... Preventing
hurricane maria from moving too far northward. Skies remain
mostly sunny with temperatures warming nicely to highs in the
mid-upper 80s inland (low-mid 80s beaches due to breezy ne
winds). Afternoon dewpoints falling into the upper 50s to
mid 60s will create ambient conditions that should feel
comfortable rather than humid.

Short term tonight through Tuesday
Southern end of the stacked high begins to break down Sun night
as hurricane maria drifts northward but remaining well off the
southeast coast. Biggest change will be slightly warmer
overnight lows in the mid 60s (upper 60s to around 70f beaches)
as onshore NE winds remain breezy in response to the pressure
gradient tightening between the sfc high to the north and maria
to the south.

Maria continues to move northward on Monday with gradient winds
remaining persistently breezy from the ne. Gusts around
20-25 mph should be anticipated along coastal areas of
se va NE nc... Where farther inland, gusts should range from
15-20 mph. Clouds from the outer bands of maria will start to
rotate into areas along the coast from NE nc to md... Especially
as the afternoon progresses. This should impact temperatures
near SE coastal areas with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Farther inland, less clouds present should allow temps to warm
into the mid- upper 80s. Isolated thunderstorms may be possible
mon afternoon if the outer bands can make it far enough north to
rotate into far SE va NE nc coastal areas. Per 12z data, models
in fair agreement in showing maria's center located an average
of 320 miles SE of CAPE hatteras by Monday evening with
variations in precip coverage, thus the reason why precip is
limited to isolated for mon.

From Mon night into tue, model consensus begins to fall apart.

The general trend among all models is for maria to continue
pushing northward. However, the GFS is more progressive in
shifting its track nnw and closer to CAPE hatteras (around
160 miles ese), whereas the ECMWF shows a slower northward track
and keeping the center around 225 miles SE of CAPE hatteras.

Despite model differences, the overall trend is for maria to
approach the mid atlantic region Mon night and Tue with precip
chances increasing during this time. Have broad-brushed pops
into 6 hour segments in an effort to show the upward trend while
not putting too much detail into the forecast until models get a
better handle on how close maria can get to the coast before
being pushed out to sea by a cold front and incoming upper
trough with stronger westerly steering winds aloft. Given model
differences, temperatures will be tricky... However dewpoints
will be on the rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Expect
increasing low temperatures Mon night (upper 60s to lower 70s),
and lower high temperatures on Tue due to more clouds precip
across the area. Highs in the mid-upper 70s near the coast to
around 80f generally along west of interstate 95.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
First part of the extended, Tuesday night through Thursday,
will be predicated on future track of hurricane maria. Latest
nhc track is a bit further west than 24 hours ago, which
increases the potential for some rainfall near the bay ocean,
somewhat stronger winds, higher seas, and some coastal
flooding. Have utilized superblend for tangible weather during
this period, given potential uncertainty in the track.

Models quite consistent after the daytime hours Thursday in
taking maria fairly quickly northeastward away from the area. In
advance of upper trof dropping southeastward from canada. This
trof and associated cold front move into the region next
Saturday day 7 .

Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday, with highs
from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures cool into the 70s
Friday Saturday in the wake of hurricane maria. Lows Tuesday
night through Wednesday night range from the mid 60s to around
70f, then mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE Thursday night, and in the
50s Friday night.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure remains situated over the ERN great lakes early
this morning, with hurricane maria tracking nwd N of the
bahamas. Mostly clear early this morning with some bands of thin
cirrus. Shallow ground fog is possible through 12z (primarily
sby phf) with weak flow and decent radiational cooling. Any fog
will dissipate quickly after 12z with sunny conditions expected
today with a NE wind of 5-10kt. High pressure remains anchored
n of the region tonight as maria continues to track nwd. Mostly
clear this evening, with increasing clouds later tonight across
se va NE nc with some MVFR CIGS possible. Otherwise, patchy fog
is possible where the sky remains mostly clear overnight.

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy Monday with a 10-15kt NE wind.

Increasing moisture and some distant banding from maria will
result in a 40-50% chc of showers for orf ecg and 20-40% for
ric sby phf. Conditions Tuesday night Wednesday Wednesday night
will largely be dictated by how close maria gets to the outer
banks. A closer approach will result in breezy to windy
conditions, especially at orf ecg along with an increased chc of
rain and degraded flight conditions. A cold front approaches
from the NW Thursday and pushes maria farther offshore.

Marine
Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with
seas generally 4-6 ft and the current small craft for hazardous
seas will continue in effect through Sun night (after that winds
will increase and the headlines will likely be converted to the
more usual small craft advsy). Overall, expect seas of 4-6 ft
to persist Sunday Sunday night, then build more significantly
mon- Wed as ese swell and some increasing winds arrive from slow
moving maria. The bulk of the forecast guidance (as well as the
official NHC forecast) still keeps maria offshore of the
carolinas Tue into thu, before it gets kicked quickly ene out
to sea Thu night into Fri night. Based on the latest guidance,
have increased winds and seas fcst for tue-thu, with at least
sca conditions expected all areas and the potential for gales
over the lower bay coastal waters (or tropical headlines).

Either way, seas over the coastal waters should easily reach 10
ft or greater from tue-thu. Monitor the NHC forecast for the
official forecast track of maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures this aftn avg 1.0 to 1.5 ft across the entire
area. Minor flooding continues mainly across the upper bay from
lewisetta to bishops head through this evening. The following
high tide overnight early Sunday will tend to be slightly lower
than the one this evening but will be close enough to just
extend the coastal flood advisory through Sun morning. Elsewhere
over the mid lower bay, the water levels peaked a few tenths
below minor flood thresholds earlier today, with the overnight
tide expected to be slightly lower so did not issue any
headlines for these areas. Water levels will tend to remain
elevated sun-mon, but overall most places should remain below
any minor flood thresholds. Will need to watch for additional
flooding next week, especially by later Tue and Wed (and
perhaps thu). This will depend on the exact track of maria, but
the potential for significant tidal flooding exists (especially
over locations adjacent to the lower bay and southern va NE nc
waters. High surf advisories likely will be needed by late mon
or Tue as well.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues through Sunday, as 3-5 ft nearshore waves and
13-15 second swell persists.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 9 am edt this morning for
mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 7 am edt this morning for vaz075-
077.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt Monday
for anz650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Ajz alb wrs
aviation... Ajz
marine... Lkb tmg
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 9 mi37 min W 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 77°F1017.2 hPa
44089 13 mi25 min 74°F5 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi37 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 1017.7 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 38 mi25 min WNW 5.8 G 5.8 74°F 1017.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 43 mi37 min NW 2.9 G 2.9 73°F 78°F1017.4 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 44 mi37 min ESE 1 G 1.9 76°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi25 min NW 3.9 G 3.9 75°F 1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA11 mi60 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist65°F64°F99%1017.6 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA17 mi61 minSW 410.00 miFair68°F66°F96%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3NW3N3CalmN5N4NE5N3NE4N7NW5NW5NW6N5N3SE5S3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW3SW3W6W6W5NW5NW4N4N7N3NW3NW6NW7NW7NW4W3NW3CalmSW4CalmCalmW3W3W3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmNE4N4NW3NW7W8NW7CalmN3E3SE3SE4SE3CalmS3SW4SW3W4

Tide / Current Tables for Metompkin Inlet, Virginia
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Metompkin Inlet
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Sun -- 05:26 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:04 PM EDT     4.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:55 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.83.32.41.50.80.30.30.91.72.63.33.84.13.83.12.11.20.60.40.61.32.12.83.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Wachapreague Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:12 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:27 AM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:49 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:47 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.83.22.51.60.80.40.61.2233.94.44.43.93.22.31.50.80.60.91.52.233.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.