Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pastoria, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:13PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 7:03 PM EDT (23:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:03PMMoonset 7:03AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 630 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt late. Seas around 2 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 2 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 630 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds in from the northwest through tonight and settles immediately off the coast on Wednesday. This area of high pressure then shifts off the coast later in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pastoria, VA
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location: 37.71, -75.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211940
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
340 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight, and settles
immediately off the coast on Wednesday. This area of high
pressure then shifts off the coast later in the week as low
pressure passes by north of the region.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 330 pm edt Tuesday...

latest analysis indicates sfc high pressure centered over the
great lakes, ridging SE into the mid- atlantic states. A wnw
flow prevails aloft with an upper ridge amplifying from the gulf
coast into the oh valley. Partly to mostly sunny and pleasant
this aftn with just some scattered clouds over most of the area.

Temperatures range from the lower 80s in interior NE nc and
south central va to the lower- mid 70s along the coast and over
the n.

Dry and seasonal conditions will continue tonight into
Wednesday as high pressure builds across the local area, then
shifts off the mid- atlantic coast Wednesday. Clear tonight
with low temperatures ranging from around 50f n, to the
mid upper 50s near and along the coasts of SE va NE nc. Favored
cold spots potentially drop into the upper 40s. Mostly sunny
Wednesday (becoming partly sunny W of i-95 in the aftn). High
temperatures ranging from the lower 70s along the coast (upper
60s around 70f md atlantic coast), to around 80f well inland.

Remaining comfortable with dew pts in the upper 40s E to lower-
mid 50s w.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
As of 330 pm edt Tuesday...

upper level ridge axis shifts E off the coast Wed night, as an
upper low over the northern plains moves E into the great lakes.

This will allow the flow aloft to change from the SW to more of
a westerly direction by Thu morning, and to the the wnw by thu
aftn. As the gradient tightens up, the h7 to h5 winds will
increase to around 40 kt over the northern 1 2 of the area to
30-35 kt over the southern zones by late Thu aftn and evening.

In the low levels, the flow will be from the SW on Thu as sfc
high pressure shifts well offshore and low pressure moves into
the central eastern great lakes. All of this will bring a significant
change to the airmass by thu. Wed night will be mostly clear
with some increasing clouds overnight. Temperatures will fall
quickly in the evening before becoming nearly steady overnight
with lows in the mid-upper 50s E to the lower 60s w. As for
precip chances into Thu morning, the 21 12z GFS remains most
aggressive with showers tstms spreading into the region from
12-18z, while the NAM and ECMWF are generally are drier through
much of the day with the potential for some isolated scattered
convection more probable during the late aftn and evening. Have
leaned more towards the nam ECMWF scenario but did maintain
~20% pop during a portion of the morning given the uncertainty.

Highs on Thu will range from 85-90 f over most of the area
(potentially into lower 90s if it stays mostly sunny through
most of the day per the ecmwf). SPC has the far N NE in a
marginal risk for severe (primarily for straight line winds but
some large hail will also be possible). Will have ~30% chance
pops NW late Thu aftn, shifting to the NE zones Thu evening,
with ~20% pops most other places. The upper level ridge then
builds back N and amplifies a bit for fri. Have kept it dry for
fri with highs rising into the lower 90s W of the bay and in the
80s closer to the coast.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 250 pm edt Tuesday...

summerlike temperatures remaining above normal through the
extended forecast period as hi pres aloft remains centered ssw
of the fa INVOF central gulf states. Meanwhile... An anomalous
deep trough aloft will continue to largely remain out over the
wrn conus. Sfc warm front lifts N through the fa Fri night into
sat then W W flow aloft through the mid-atlantic ne
conus... That front will become hung up just N of the fa into
early next week. While isold convection possible both sat-sun
afternoons... Higher pops will be Mon afternoon as the trough
aloft sharpens through new england and a sfc cold front pushes
across the local area. Drying out cooling off tue.

Lows Fri night in the l-m60s N to the m-u60s se. Highs Sat in
the l-m80s E to the l90s w. Lows Sat night in the u60s-around
70f. Highs Sun in the 80s at the coast... L-m90s elsewhere. Lows
sun night in the u60s-around 70f. Highs Mon in the 80s E to the
l90s inland. Highs Tue from the u70s-l80s E to the m80s inland.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 200 pm edt Tuesday...

mostly clear sunny conditions prevail as high pressure builds
in from the nw. High pressure becomes centered N of the area
tonight, with a light NE wind under a clear sky.

High pressure remains over the region Wednesday, before sliding
offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. There is a 20-30% chc of
showers tstms Thursday aftn evening as a trough slides across
the area in NW flow aloft. Dry conditions are expected Friday
into Saturday as weak high pressure returns.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Tuesday...

high pressure will continue to build in from the north through
tonight. N winds 10-15 kt into this evening will become NE 5-10 kt
overnight. High pressure will center itself off DELMARVA on
Wednesday with ese winds 5-15 kt. High pressure then moves offshore
Wednesday night and Thursday with winds becoming S 10-15 kt. Winds
become SE late Thursday, increasing to 15-20 kt offshore for a time
Thursday evening in advance of the next cold front. Winds then turn
nnw behind the front on Friday, but still remain below SCA levels.

For this weekend, SE winds around 10 kt expected on Saturday and ssw
winds 10-15 kt on Sunday. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-4 ft through the
period.

Climate
* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site avg 2019 value
* richmond: may 13th (sun 5 19)
* norfolk: may 16th (sun 5 19)
* salisbury: may 27th (none so far)
* eliz city: may 18th (sat 5 18)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Equipment
Kakq 88d down ufn. Apparent comms rda modem problem. Techs are
working on the issue.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Ajz lkb
long term... Alb
aviation... Ajz lkb
marine... Jdm tmg
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 9 mi33 min NNW 5.1 G 11 70°F 79°F1016.4 hPa
44089 13 mi33 min 66°F2 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi33 min N 18 G 20 1017.6 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 38 mi33 min NE 16 G 18 68°F 71°F1015.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 43 mi39 min N 8 G 13 69°F 75°F1017.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 44 mi33 min N 11 G 15 72°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi39 min NNE 14 G 16 69°F 70°F1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA11 mi63 minN 10 G 1510.00 miFair71°F47°F44%1016.6 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA17 mi69 minVar 410.00 miFair74°F50°F43%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Metompkin Inlet, Virginia
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Metompkin Inlet
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Tue -- 04:48 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:07 AM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:22 PM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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431.80.80-0.20.21.122.83.43.73.52.81.91.10.40.20.61.42.43.344.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Wachapreague Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:39 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:41 AM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:56 PM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.92.81.70.6-0.1-0.20.41.42.43.33.83.93.52.71.810.40.30.81.82.93.84.54.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.