Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Onancock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday June 22, 2017 2:26 PM EDT (18:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:29AMMoonset 5:53PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 106 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft...building to 3 to 4 ft late. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 106 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Bermuda high pressure prevails through Saturday. The remnants of cindy will pass across the region Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front pushes across the coast Saturday night. Another cold front pushes across the region Monday night with high pressure returning through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Onancock, VA
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location: 37.72, -75.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221817
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
217 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
Bermuda high pressure begins to shift back towards the eastern
seaboard through tonight. The high becomes centered off the
southeast coast Friday and Saturday... As a surface cold front
approaches the region from the northwest. Tropical moisture from
the remnants of TD cindy will push across the region ahead of
the front for Friday through Saturday... Before the front shifts
offshore late in the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Latest weather analysis features tropical depression cindy
moving n-ne over the west-central gulf coast at midday. Out
ahead of the system, a broad plume of mid to upper level clouds
has pushed across the mid-south into the carolinas. To the
north, a quasi-stationary boundary remains in place along and
just north of the mason-dixon line, extending NW into the
western great lakes. Meanwhile, the bermuda high is settling
in off the southeast coast and will remain there through at
least Saturday. 12z soundings indicate quick moistening out
ahead of the system, with pw values already in the ~1.25 to
1.50 range... Running just a bit faster than model timing.

Have nudged pop up into 20-30% range for isolated to widely sct
convection over the southern 1 3 of the area (mainly us-460
south). A couple of lobes of shortwave energy out ahead of td
cindy lift ene from the tn valley SE states this afternoon.

Expect that showers will mainly stay SW of the local area for
much of the day, with a few showers making it into the area by
the late aftn into the evening before waning. Given that shear
is still on the low side, expect activity over the local area to
drop off quickly with loss of heating, with most pcpn remaining
to our w-sw through midnight. Overall, increasing clouds, very
warm muggy this aftn with highs reaching into the lower 90s most
areas and dewpoints around 70f.

More widespread area of showers pushes in late tonight as
theta-e ridge pushes across the piedmont toward the eastern
shore late tonight into Friday morning. Expect a period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall during this time frame, and
have therefore continued likely pop mainly NW of a fvx-ric-sby
line. Farther south, have gone with a low chance pop for some
isolated showers over south central va and NE nc. Warm and muggy
overnight with lows in the 70s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Strong high pressure remains in place over the desert SW tonight
into Friday as the bermuda high to the east creates an omega
blocking pattern... Effectively "trapping" TS cindy in the
middle. Cindy's overall movement will be highly dependent on
actual location placement of the ridges over the next few days,
and even more so on a broad upper level trough currently
stretched across the western 2 3rds of the us canadian border.

This trough is expected to start digging into the us tonight,
however the bigger question is how far can it dig before it runs
into cindy and or gets blocked by the bermuda high. The good
news is that 00z model runs are in fair agreement in bringing
the base of the trough into the midwest Fri sat. As this occurs,
surface low pressure located in eastern ontario on Friday will
drag a cold front towards the mid atlantic region. The front
should collect the remnants of TS cindy and slowly push through
the local area Sat sat night... Exiting the NE nc coast Sunday
morning.

So what does this mean for the mid atlantic region?
1. Increasing chances for showers storms.

Ample subtropical moisture (pwats around 2.00 inches) will
continuously stream into the area from the gulf and the
atlantic, and that's before the remnants of cindy arrive.

Shortwave energy ejecting from cindy will bring the first round
of showers storms to the region beginning Friday morning and
persisting into the evening. Storm severity will be highly
dependent whether or not clouds can break up during the day and
allow for surface instability to occur. Otherwise, instability
will be largely contingent on elevated instability from heating
aloft. At this time, SPC has the northwestern half of the area
in a marginal risk for isolated severe storms on Friday, however
850-700mb MUCAPE suggests that SE va NE nc would be more
conducive to favorable strong thunderstorms. Overall,
unidirectional shear and low-mid level dry air seen in
atmospheric profiles suggests that line segments will be the
primary storm type and that locally strong wind gusts will be
possible under the strongest storm cores. Moderate to heavy
rainfall rates within the subtropical environment anticipated.

A break in precipitation is anticipated Friday night with the
loss of daytime heating. This will be short-lived as the
remnants of TS cindy arrive by Saturday morning just ahead of
the cold front extending down from canada. More widespread
showers storms should be anticipated as the front slowly tracks
ese through the area... Exiting the NE nc coast by Sunday
morning. Once again, storm mode will primarily be line segments
with locally strong wind gusts possible... Especially across the
southeastern half of the area during Saturday afternoon. Will
highlight storm potential in the hwo for the entire forecast
area.

2. Potential for localized flooding.

Moderate to heavy rainfall rates over a short period of time
could lead to localized flooding issues Friday and Saturday. In
addition, training of storms on Friday could pose a slightly
higher risk for flooding. For Saturday, warm rain processes with
the remnants of TS cindy could further enhance and or exacerbate
any flooding issues. Will highlight heavy rain and flooding
potential in the hwo for the northwestern half of the area where
storm total QPF amounts are roughly 0.50-1.00 inches. Once rain
begins and we can observe upstream trends, QPF amounts will
likely go up (locally higher possible in thunderstorms).

3. Warm and muggy conditions.

Tonight through Saturday... Highs in the upper 80s inland and
mid 80s beaches. Lows in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s
beaches. Dewpoints generally 70-75f will result in muggy
conditions in the subtropical environment. Lows Saturday night
in the mid 60s NW to lower 70s SE as drier, cooler air moves in
behind the departing cold front.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Cold front stalls along the southeast coast Saturday night into
Sunday as an upper level trough deepens over the great lakes
region into the ohio valley. Deepest moisture pushes south of
the local area Saturday night, but have kept low end chance pops
across the far southeast forecast area. Frontal boundary
expected to remain in the vicinity of northeast north carolina
Sunday due to southwest flow aloft. Isolated to scattered
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible across
the southeast Sunday afternoon, nearest the boundary and better
instability, but expect much of the forecast area to remain dry
Sunday. Highs generally in the mid 80's. Thereafter, medium
range guidance drops a stronger cold front Monday Monday night
as additional energy dives down the back side of the upper
trough. Guidance indicates the moisture and instability will be
limited ahead of the front, but given the dynamics, have kept
chance pops Monday afternoon. Cooler Monday, with highs ranging
from the low to mid 80's. Trough axis swings across the region
Tuesday as the front pushes offshore. Drying conditions expected
Tuesday, but have kept slight chance to low end chance pops
across the far southeast given model uncertainty with respect to
the front. Highs generally around 80 Tuesday as 850mb
temperatures level off at 10-12c (-1 standard deviation). Inland
locations (and along the immediate coast) could only warm into
the upper 70's. Dewpoints mix into the 50's, resulting in
pleasant afternoon conditions. Dry conditions forecast Wednesday
as the trough pushes offshore and heights build over the ohio
valley. Surface high pressure settles over the mid-atlantic.

Highs Wednesday generally in the low 80's.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr conditions are expected through this afternoon and evening. Mid
and high level clouds will continue to increase this afternoon as
shortwave energy from TD cindy tracks ene from the tn valley se
states. Patchy rain showers will work into primarily western and
northern portions of the region overnight, potentially impacting ric
and sby. There will also be the potential for MVFR stratus,
particularly at ric, tomorrow morning. Winds increase out of the sw
on Friday afternoon, gusts in excess of 20 knots will be possible.

Outlook: additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop on Friday afternoon and again on Saturday as the remnants
of TD cindy arrive just ahead of a cold front. Periods of MVFR will
be possible in heavier showers on Friday and Saturday. The front
exits the NE nc coast by Sunday morning with winds shifting to the
nw and conditions improving toVFR as cooler, drier air arrives in
its wake.

Marine
High pressure is situated off the southeast coast early this
morning as TS cindy moves onshore along the NRN gulf coast.

Additionally, a weak front is immediately north of the local
marine area. High pressure is expected to prevail off the
southeast coast through Saturday as the remnant low of cindy
tracks through the tennessee valley Friday and Friday night, and
then across the NRN mid-atlantic Saturday. A SW wind will
average 10-15kt today through tonight and Friday, with 2-3ft
seas and 1-2ft waves in the bay. A cold front will push into the
ern great lakes Friday and this combined with the approach of
the remnant low will result in a tightening pressure gradient
and strengthening low- level jet Friday night through midday
Saturday. A SW wind will increase to 15-25kt (gusts up to 30kt
possible in the ocean bay), with 4-6ft seas possible out near
20nm mainly north of parramore island, with 3-4ft seas farther
south. SCA conditions are increasingly likely Friday night into
Saturday. A cold front pushes across the coast Saturday night,
followed by a stronger cold front Monday night with high
pressure building over the region through the middle of next
week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Bmd mam
short term... Bmd
long term... Mam
aviation... Ajb bmd
marine... Ajz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 8 mi38 min W 5.1 G 8 86°F 83°F1016.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 19 mi86 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9
44089 22 mi26 min 72°F2 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi26 min S 3.9 G 3.9 81°F 79°F1017.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 38 mi26 min SSE 3.9 G 3.9 81°F 81°F1015.2 hPa (-0.6)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi38 min SW 8 G 9.9 82°F 81°F1016.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 40 mi38 min W 5.1 G 6
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 42 mi38 min SW 7 G 8 87°F 78°F1016.1 hPa
44072 45 mi26 min W 3.9 G 3.9 82°F 78°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 45 mi38 min W 5.1 G 6 83°F 1017.4 hPa
44096 48 mi35 min 72°F2 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi31 minW 610.00 miFair86°F71°F61%1016.6 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA21 mi32 minVar 610.00 miOvercast85°F73°F70%1016.1 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Onancock, Onancock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Onancock
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Thu -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:05 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:33 PM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.71.10.60.1-0.1-0.10.20.71.31.71.91.81.410.50-0.2-0.20.20.81.422.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:55 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:35 AM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:53 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.30.80.3-0-0.100.40.91.41.71.81.51.20.70.2-0.1-0.2-00.41.11.72.12.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.